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That is an overly pessimistic view.
You are actually wrong on all counts.
Again, wrong on all counts. We have the most able and professional military force on the planet And we would not need half a million troops to win in Afghanistan. Less then half that can actually get the job done. We would just need to turn them loose and let them get the job done without micromanaging it in Washington D.C.
Kindly spare the lectures on MAD plse thx as everyone is familiar with it -- some of us have lived it for three score years and then some. When you posted using the expression 'all hell breaks loose' you you opened yourself to all hell breaking loose and now you're flapping your arms over my post about all hell breaking loose. The United States is not prepared to win a major war in a major theater of war due to the AVF being too small. Further, there is no time for the nation to mobilize to stop an enemy army of significant capability advancing against an allied nation by our putting boots on the ground in sufficient force while having the will of the nation behind the operation or the formally declared war.
AVF is too small to win a major conventional war in most major countries. That AVF could invade Mexico and defeat it would not alter the reality -- presuming the AVF could overrun Mexico to the point of actually conquering it and holding it. Iraq was the largest country geographically the US has invaded. It wuz a bust. The Pentagon used terms such as Operation Desert Storm which went well enough as a 100 hour ground war that did not approach Baghdad. Saying the mission did not include Baghdad or taking out Saddam is an excuse and an apology, not a strategy, nor was it a successful operational plan beyond the near horizon. When GW of the Bush War Tribe of Chieftans decided to go for the kill and seize Baghdad and Saddam Pentagon called it Operation Iraqi Freedom.
Others of us called the whole of the Iraq war plan and purpose 1991-2011 Operation Desert Disaster. Conquering and transforming Iraq was always beyond the AVF capabilities. Rumsfeld and youse guyz internalized the AVF True Believers Gospel that a small compact highly mobile technological force of crackerjack professionals could and would conquer Iraq, do it in a short order and that we would have Mission Accomplished. What we got instead was Operation Desert Disaster due to AVF Mission Impossible. AVF can hold a hill or a village but it cannot hold a country or, as in the case of Afghanistan or Iraq a major section(s) of these big countries to the point of making the strategic geographic holding decisive to the outcome.
Rules of engagement is the cure-all of the right and the ROE have been the magical solution over there since the Vietnam War. The ROE in Vietnam limited the armed forces in a civil war that the US never should have been in and wasn't ever going to win. Major divisions at home about the war meant we couldn't be successful in a civil war we weren't going to be successful pursuing in the first place. Had the US abandoned the limited ROE and gone for WW II ROE divisions at home would have both intensified and become more widespread. We'd have lost allies besides. ROE are subordinate to the nature of the war and the character of the conflict, its combatants, the civilian population in the theater of war and at home, among other determining factors in the decision to go to war and to prosecute it. And the cost of it in every respect.
AVF could give North Korea a bloody nose just as AVF executed Desert Storm and just as it swept to Baghdad in Operation Iraqi Freedom. However, if the US were to venture to bloody the nose of Pyongyang the American population back home would not support an all out war on the Korean peninsula. The casualties on the peninsula and in the northeast Asia region would be beyond the pale -- civilian casualties in particular. There is also the additional factor of Japan being involved in this one -- as we recall Japan was not directly involved as a combatant in the Korean Conflict of 60-plus years ago. Rules of engagement in an Operation Bloody Nose against Pyongyang would be to hit and run and pray.
It is anyway the case that Robert Gates when he was SecDef initiated the doctrine of 21st century Air-Sea Battle which is how new US conflicts will go. The strikes against Syria were air-sea based strikes. No ground maneuver forces of the US all volunteer army were involved in any significant or substantial way. This is the present and the future of US warfare. Iraq and Afghanistan are the past, i.e., large numbers of boots on the ground supported from the air and also somewhat by sea forces. A NK Operation Bloody Nose let's call it would be 80% Air-Sea Battle (ASB) by any name (and Army does not like the name so Army got it changed to a long and winding new mumbo jumbo of JAM-GC).