- Joined
- Sep 2, 2017
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- Centrist
Vladimir Putin’s obsession with power could cause" Russia" to slip down the dragon’s throat.
my question : When Siberia became part of China?
", Russia’s most serious geopolitical challenges do not lie to the West. The United States and Europe will never accept the annexation of Crimea de jure, but have already signaled their acceptance de facto.
The signature of an association agreement between Ukraine and the European Union may infuriate Putin. It may also undermine his pet project of creating a Eurasian Economic Union. It does not, however, threaten core Russian national interests.
Moreover, despite initial sanctions and a chilling of relations, both are anxious to maintain cooperation with Russia on issues such as arms control, Iran sanctions, space, the environment and governance of the Arctic. They would also like to restore more normal trade and investment relations if and when circumstances permit.
Russia’s real threats
Most critically, neither the United States nor Europe has any interest in acquiring, occupying or exploiting sovereign territory of the Russian Federation. The same cannot be said about Russia’s South and East, where Putin’s real strategic challenges lie.
To the South, Moscow must deal with a rapidly growing Muslim population. Aspirations for greater autonomy and even independence have been crushed by brutal repression and rule by Russian puppets. The savagery with which Putin laid waste to Grozny and subdued the rest of Chechnya will not soon be forgotten.
The psychological impact of this treatment in Muslim territories has been compounded by the overt racism — the dark underside of Russian nationalism.
The civil disorder and terrorism that have resulted from Russia’s actions do not yet pose a threat to Russian control of its Muslim population. However, they are bound to grow worse over time, consuming scarce resources and diverting the Kremlin’s attention from other pressing problems.
The Siberian power vacuum
The most serious challenge for Putin and Russia lies to the East. Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East contain a cornucopia of timber, oil, gas, minerals and other valuable resources. Russia has neither the people nor the capital to develop these resources on its own.
Climate change is making these resources more accessible by opening up northern sea lanes and shortening the harsh winter season. The Russian population in this vast region is not just small, but also declining.
Moscow’s strategy to control the region has relied on using centrally appointed governors — locally elected ones have shown dangerous separatist tendencies — and widely dispersed security forces.
When one compares these efforts and personnel resources to those of neighboring regions and countries, it is clear that there is a power vacuum. That vacuum will eventually be filled.
The People’s Republic of Eastern Siberia
The natural candidate to fill it is China. There is already a growing Chinese population engaged in trade and agriculture on the Russian side of the Amur River.
As Chinese penetration of the region increases, local Chinese will increasingly look to Beijing for “protection.” Clumsy Russian attempts to assert control will be met with ultimatums from China.
Throw in a few incidents, a few power-hungry local leaders under the sway of Chinese money, as well as tactical intervention by the Red Army to protect Chinese citizens — and you realize one thing quickly: The “People’s Republic of Eastern Siberia” is a step away from being born.
Moscow would attempt to retain control. It would not succeed in the face of Chinese military power and financial resources.
The details of how Chinese control over Eastern Russia might be achieved is less important than the recognition that the dynamic balance of forces in the region will organically lead to this result.
my question : When Siberia became part of China?
", Russia’s most serious geopolitical challenges do not lie to the West. The United States and Europe will never accept the annexation of Crimea de jure, but have already signaled their acceptance de facto.
The signature of an association agreement between Ukraine and the European Union may infuriate Putin. It may also undermine his pet project of creating a Eurasian Economic Union. It does not, however, threaten core Russian national interests.
Moreover, despite initial sanctions and a chilling of relations, both are anxious to maintain cooperation with Russia on issues such as arms control, Iran sanctions, space, the environment and governance of the Arctic. They would also like to restore more normal trade and investment relations if and when circumstances permit.
Russia’s real threats
Most critically, neither the United States nor Europe has any interest in acquiring, occupying or exploiting sovereign territory of the Russian Federation. The same cannot be said about Russia’s South and East, where Putin’s real strategic challenges lie.
To the South, Moscow must deal with a rapidly growing Muslim population. Aspirations for greater autonomy and even independence have been crushed by brutal repression and rule by Russian puppets. The savagery with which Putin laid waste to Grozny and subdued the rest of Chechnya will not soon be forgotten.
The psychological impact of this treatment in Muslim territories has been compounded by the overt racism — the dark underside of Russian nationalism.
The civil disorder and terrorism that have resulted from Russia’s actions do not yet pose a threat to Russian control of its Muslim population. However, they are bound to grow worse over time, consuming scarce resources and diverting the Kremlin’s attention from other pressing problems.
The Siberian power vacuum
The most serious challenge for Putin and Russia lies to the East. Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East contain a cornucopia of timber, oil, gas, minerals and other valuable resources. Russia has neither the people nor the capital to develop these resources on its own.
Climate change is making these resources more accessible by opening up northern sea lanes and shortening the harsh winter season. The Russian population in this vast region is not just small, but also declining.
Moscow’s strategy to control the region has relied on using centrally appointed governors — locally elected ones have shown dangerous separatist tendencies — and widely dispersed security forces.
When one compares these efforts and personnel resources to those of neighboring regions and countries, it is clear that there is a power vacuum. That vacuum will eventually be filled.
The People’s Republic of Eastern Siberia
The natural candidate to fill it is China. There is already a growing Chinese population engaged in trade and agriculture on the Russian side of the Amur River.
As Chinese penetration of the region increases, local Chinese will increasingly look to Beijing for “protection.” Clumsy Russian attempts to assert control will be met with ultimatums from China.
Throw in a few incidents, a few power-hungry local leaders under the sway of Chinese money, as well as tactical intervention by the Red Army to protect Chinese citizens — and you realize one thing quickly: The “People’s Republic of Eastern Siberia” is a step away from being born.
Moscow would attempt to retain control. It would not succeed in the face of Chinese military power and financial resources.
The details of how Chinese control over Eastern Russia might be achieved is less important than the recognition that the dynamic balance of forces in the region will organically lead to this result.