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Cyberwarfare has taken a new turn. Yes, it’s time to worry.
In Ukraine, 'ransomware' has now morphed into a fig leaf to cover cyberwarfare actions by the Kremlin. I can foresee a scenario where the electric grid of let's say the eastern United States is held hostage until a political ransom - such as removing all Russian sanctions - is accomplished. Moscow would of course deny any involvement in such a 'ransomware attack'.
Additional: Your Guide to Russia’s Infrastructure Hacking Teams
By Brandon Valeriano, Ryan C. Maness and Benjamin Jensen
July 13, 2017
The recent “ransomware” events created headaches and headlines — but also masked a greater cyber-issue: chaos and disruption on the Internet as the new normal. Earlier this week, in fact, the Alliance for Securing Democracy, a new effort headed by former U.S. national security officials, formed as a separate, nongovernmental program to investigate Russian cyber-meddling. Previous cyber-incidents focused on information acquisition, network infiltration or precision strikes to sabotage the opposition. What are we seeing now are disruptive cyber-actions — with the apparent goals of signaling capability, disrupting normal systems and demonstrating the instability of Western democratic models. A number of analysts described the Petya/NotPetya incident of June and the WannaCry event in May as ransom attacks, aimed at gaining as much bitcoin as possible. But our analysis of cyber-coercion highlights how ransomware events such as the Petya are often strategically motivated and less about gaining funds than they are about sending a signal. The primary goal instead appears to be limited destruction through malware wiping systems.
The strategic logic of cyber has now shifted from restraint to one of disruption and constant harassment designed to signal capability and the threat of escalation. Russian hackers targeted U.S. institutions, most likely hoping to gain leverage before entering complex negotiations around sanctions, Ukraine and Syria. While we have yet to witness the extremes of cyberwar, the more subtle danger since 2016 is the way states like Russia and North Korea use cyber-strategies as a form of political warfare. These attacks create chaos, which challenges the prevailing international order and major institutions — from commerce to hospitals to elections — that represent the foundations of Western societies.
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In Ukraine, 'ransomware' has now morphed into a fig leaf to cover cyberwarfare actions by the Kremlin. I can foresee a scenario where the electric grid of let's say the eastern United States is held hostage until a political ransom - such as removing all Russian sanctions - is accomplished. Moscow would of course deny any involvement in such a 'ransomware attack'.
Additional: Your Guide to Russia’s Infrastructure Hacking Teams