I clearly understand what you mean when you say the cost goes up due to cancelled order. I never denied this problem.
Cool.
You are forgetting partner nations.
If the U.S. drastically cuts it's procurement, that will send up the cost per plane quite a bit. And that will undoubtedly cause other nations to not buy the plane - especially if they are having debt problems as well (and most of the West is in a very similar position to America - near zero interest rates, huge annual deficits, stagnating economies).
How is debt-per GDP not a factor? You are looking at debt in proportion of the economy...which is only growing up so slightly. How are you so sure of a massive disaster when the defecit has been going downwards. And do you have any proof the US economy cannot sustain a $20 Trillion debt? You say the Democrats will win....well the Democrats are not going to lower the debt by cutting back. Both Republicans and Democrats are invested in the F-35 program due to jobs in both Liberal and Republican states. Even if lets say a super hippie like Bernie Sanders wins, the Global Participation in F-35 along with Lockheed's influence with Democratic politicans is too much. And a 15 Trillion-20 Trillion increase isn't going to be some sort of Great Deppression in the government does not get that paid in time. It will be a reccession at best. And the US Military has gone through those disasters and stayed ready.
I guess I am not explaining myself properly.
First...the deficit came down from the over $1 trillion it was under GWB because as the Great Recession (G.R.) ended, tax revenues rebounded. Spending actually did not go down...but revenues went up.
Now, the nation is near 'full employment' - so there is not much more revenue to be gained without increasing taxes - and Trump is talking the opposite. So revenues will go down.
Now, he is saying that revenues will rise because the economy will rise from the present tepid roughly 2% GDP growth (only 1.2% in Q1 2017, btw) to 3%. But they do not say how. Lower taxes and regulations should help.
But they are not addressing the fundamental problems in the economy.
The home ownership rate has fallen drastically since the end of the G.R.. It is now near levels from the 1960's.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/home-ownership-rate
The M2 Money Velocity - the amount of times money is changing hands - is the LOWEST ON RECORD...and still falling hard. And it is not because America is 'printing' SO much money. It is because no one is spending...we are living on cheap debt. That is bad.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V
And there are lots of other signs as well that the nation has stagnated. Only the cheap interest rates, cheap debt and the Fed stimulating the equity markets (QE is actually still going on, they just do not call it that anymore).
America is surviving on cheap debt...but that cannot last forever.
As to the debt servicing costs?
Debt to GDP is just an average. It has nothing to do with debt servicing. The interest payments on the $20 trillion dollar national debt must be paid. They have been INCREDIBLY cheap for about a decade since the Fed lowered rates to near zero. But for every 1% they raise them up - the interest costs on that debt rise by about $200 billion. There is nothing that can be done about that. And that is added to the national budget every year.
Even if the economy stays stagnant, the budget will rise on it's own once the Fed raises interest rates back to historic norms.
It might take 5 or 10 years. But it is inevitable, imo.
The US is not cutting the F-35.
I am saying that - IMO - there is no way Congress - let alone a Democratic Congress - will fund full rate production for the F-35 (a plane most Dems do not even like - rightly or wrongly) if the national deficit is around a trillion dollars per year. Even if the economy is tepid.
And if it hits a recession...which is long overdue (thank to the Fed propping everything up with cheap money - including the stock markets)...the chances will be even worse.
