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Gaza Ceasefire Violation

gree0232 said:
I would offer a word of caution as Israel prepares for a response to the latest provocation coming from Gaza. The caution is not mine, but merely passed on from the current master of counter-insurgency, GEN David Petreaus: Beware the third and fourth order effects of the violence.

Everyone knows the first order effect of violence in Gaza. A rocket crew is targeted, or a known or at least suspected Hamas commander is targeted and an F-16 drops a bomb. Even if the target was isolated and the effects are limited to the target, someone still dies. Even if you intended to kill only one person, and only person dies, that is not where the effects stop.

1st Order Effect: One dead terrorist, who was nevertheless a brother and a father.
2nd Order Effect: Brothers, now radicalized, take up arms against Israel.
3rd Order Effect: Tribal or cultural influences spread across the border into Egypt, where the brothers find willing 'family' help the brother’s attempts at vengeance.
4th Oder Effect: Marked increase in rockets from previously targeted area.

This not a contest of simple arithmetic. The Gazan's currently feel emasculated from the horrific pounding they just received, and many more are grieving the loss of innocent family members who were ‘collateral damage’.

A little restraint here, and the acknowledgement of these sentiments, would do more good than will dropping more bombs in response.
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Very nice post. But doesn't the door swing both ways?


1st Order Effect: One dead Israeli, who was not even an combatant but was a brother/sister and a father/mother.
2nd Order Effect: Fellow Israeli's, now frustrated and angry, take up arms against militant Arabs i.e. Hamas Hezbollah with eyes on Iran.
3rd Order Effect: Terrorist actions/influences spread across the border into America and the EU, where Israel finds willing allied help to wreak havoc on terrorists and their supporters regardless of where they hide.
4th Order Effect: Marked increase in aerial and artillery into heavily populated areas followed by ground assaults.

If Israel's government simply does nothing or follows a fruitless policy of trying to peacefully negotiate with a regime that has no desire for peace as it's citizens are attacked at random how long will these Israeli officials remain in power?

And considering the replacement of these officials would be done by an angry population what kind of people will they vote in to replace those who they saw as ineffective? It will be all stone cold hardliners and then what will happen to the hapless Palestinian civilians in Gaza?

Moe
 
bub said:
Isn't terrorism (Hamas) the symptom of something deeper (bad relations between Palestinians & Israeli)?
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Perhaps but that doesn't excuse terrorism.
 
bub said:
what is your argument? that they should be deported because you think that there was no country called palestine?
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It's not me. It's history... history states this.

If Palestine rids itself of Hamas, they can stay and live in peace.

Otherwise there will be no peace.

Hamas needs to be irradicated.
 
Moe:
You hit the nail on the head. 3rd and 4th order effects do swing both ways, and whatever Hamas is, it is not the deranged Al Qaeda lunatics whose torture/rape rooms (which had third and fourth order effects of their own) turned the stomachs of an entire nation to the point where they would rather embrace a foreign occupation than continue to fight with Al Qaeada on their side.

What it really means is what many counter-insurgency leaders are saying repeatedly these days: You cannot kill your way out of this problem.

So, next logical question? Why are we (being Israel and Hamas) still killing one another?
 
gree0232 said:
Moe:
You hit the nail on the head. 3rd and 4th order effects do swing both ways, and whatever Hamas is, it is not the deranged Al Qaeda lunatics whose torture/rape rooms (which had third and fourth order effects of their own) turned the stomachs of an entire nation to the point where they would rather embrace a foreign occupation than continue to fight with Al Qaeada on their side.

What it really means is what many counter-insurgency leaders are saying repeatedly these days: You cannot kill your way out of this problem.

So, next logical question? Why are we (being Israel and Hamas) still killing one another?
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It's like Tashah said in another post. It's a middle east thing. They do not think like us. Do not fight wars like we do. They are willing go to the last man standing. I wonder though if it is not possible to return the area back over to Jordanian and Egyptian control. At least that would give the locals a chance to live in some kind of peace under stable governments that have some kind of peaceful relations with Israel. The people would no longer be stateless and become participants in already established economies and national infrastructures. It would not stop the terrorists but it would remove them from power. A combined Arab military presence in the area would put a dent in their operations though. Probably is not possible for a bunch of reasons I do not know about but apparently the Palestinian Arabs do not want Abbas back because of corruption. Can't really blame them for that.

Plus if the Egyptians and Jordanians could not put at least a serious damper on terrorist activities then the peaceful relations between them and Israel would be jeopardized. What a mess eh? Can't give peace to somebody who does not really want it.

Moe
 
Moe:
What you wrote below is little more than excuse to justify further killing, killing that would be in this case absolutely pointless. It also dehumanizes Palestinians, faulting their actions as unintelligible or hysterical.

Let’s start with the big picture. As the US (and Israel) have come to dominate high intensity warfare in the conventional sense, it has become common knowledge that trying to face us tank to tank, infantryman to infantryman is a good way to lose and lose very quickly. So, that has pushed our enemies to the far ends of the spectrum. On one end, there is an increased push for weapons of mass destruction. These however require a great deal of infrastructure to support. Assuming Hamas had the resources (which they do not), do you think that Israel would allow Hamas to build nuclear reactor in Gaza? A high tech medical facility to process chemicals and biological agents in weaponized munitions?

That leaves Hamas with the other end of the spectrum, which is low intensity conflict. The strategy there is simply to avoid defeat and allow an enemy to spend himself on terrain and obstacles that denude his strength. I.e. fight in cities where you cannot distinguish between friend and foe, remain hidden and attack with mines and IED’s, ambushes, etc. There is also a Darwinian effect to low intensity conflict. The dumb ones die quickly. Israel has been targeting Hamas for years; do you think there are a lot of dumb insurgents left in Hamas?

It would seem that Hamas’s choice of military solution is based on real and quite definable, intelligent analysis. It would also seem to indicate that Israeli firepower alone is no substitute for good policies that do not antagonize your neighbors. Not to mention, cowboy diplomacy of shooting everything in sight in a world that is cognizant of 3rd and 4th order effects seems brazenly shortsighted.

On a tactical scale, what your throw away explanation based on illogic of an enemy fails to address that Palestine has some very real issues with Israel. Until those issues are acknowledged and addressed that low level conflict that occasionally bursts into high intensity conflict will go on indefinitely. The main issue is the Palestinian desire for a separate, viable homeland. Israel has made perfectly clear that Palestinians will never be equals in Israel, and the Palestinians are clearly not prepared to exist as doormats.

Neither would I. Which makes the Palestinians seem strangely likeminded to your average American?

Israel is very powerful, and extended enough respect to treat your neighbor as an equal (even if he is not) costs a lot less then F-16’s and an endless supply of bombs. Worth a try at least?
 
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