Saudi Arabian Oil Facility Crippled by Multiple Drone Strikes.

A multiple armed drone attack has crippled a Saudi Oil refinery in the eastern part of the country. The Houthis have claimed responsibility. The US Secretary of State has accused Iran of conducting the attack but refused to give any supporting evidence for the claim. Iran denies the US allegations angrily. Remember the alleged drones which targeted at least one ship with attachable limpet mines. Do the Houthis have this kind of technology and logistical support to launch such an attack so far from the Yemeni-Saudi border? Or is there more to this story.

Iran denies launching drone attacks on Saudi oil facility | World news | The Guardian

Saudi oil attacks: Iran condemns US 'deceit' after accusation - BBC News

Cheers.
Evilroddy.

The Saudis are reaping what theyve sown. All their military interventions in Yemen and in other places are coming back at them- its called blowback.

More background here:

A coordinated drone attack has knocked out half of Saudi Arabia’s oil supply - MIT Technology Review

Cheers.
Evilroddy.

Evilroddy said:

A multiple armed drone attack has crippled a Saudi Oil refinery in the eastern part of the country. The Houthis have claimed responsibility. The US Secretary of State has accused Iran of conducting the attack but refused to give any supporting evidence for the claim. Iran denies the US allegations angrily. Remember the alleged drones which targeted at least one ship with attachable limpet mines. Do the Houthis have this kind of technology and logistical support to launch such an attack so far from the Yemeni-Saudi border? Or is there more to this story.

Iran denies launching drone attacks on Saudi oil facility | World news | The Guardian

Saudi oil attacks: Iran condemns US 'deceit' after accusation - BBC News

Cheers.
Evilroddy.

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Last I heard, a few cruise missiles were thought to have taken part. Who would have thought that the rebels were so technically advanced.

nitroexpress said:

Last I heard, a few cruise missiles were thought to have taken part. Who would have thought that the rebels were so technically advanced.

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The houthis have kh-55 clones which are soviet missiles which are highly accurate and have a range of 1500ish miles. The houthis also have the kornet russian anti tank missile and the igla-s anti aircraft manpad, among the best in the world, even being barefoot and poor hey are not stupid and still contain quite a large amount of defensive and offensive capabilities much of which is independant of iran.

Trump is awaiting orders from Putin and Kings.

beerftw said:

The houthis have kh-55 clones which are soviet missiles which are highly accurate and have a range of 1500ish miles. The houthis also have the kornet russian anti tank missile and the igla-s anti aircraft manpad, among the best in the world, even being barefoot and poor hey are not stupid and still contain quite a large amount of defensive and offensive capabilities much of which is independant of iran.

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beerftw:

Sources like the New York Times are now reporting that the attacks originated from somewhere inside Iraqi territory, which if true would seem to seriously diminish the chances of direct Houthi involvement in the attacks, despite earlier claims by the Houthis of responsibility. Thus, the jury is still out in my opinion. Whether Iranian-backed militias or some other non-state actor with an agenda were responsible remains to be seen.

Cheers.
Evilroddy.

AProudLefty said:

Trump is awaiting orders from Putin and Kings.

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APL:

Or crown-princes looking to justify the senseless war he (MBS) started in Yemen five years ago!

Cheers.
Evilroddy.

Evilroddy said:

beerftw:

Sources like the New York Times are now reporting that the attacks originated from somewhere inside Iraqi territory, which if true would seem to seriously diminish the chances of direct Houthi involvement in the attacks, despite earlier claims by the Houthis of responsibility. Thus, the jury is still out in my opinion. Whether Iranian-backed militias or some other non-state actor with an agenda were responsible remains to be seen.

Cheers.
Evilroddy.

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Shi'a militia's allied with Iran control Basra and large swaths of territory in southern Iraq.

Since 2015, the Houthi's have been resisting Saudi intervention in Yemen because it seeks to restore the internationally recognized Yemeni government. Now, Trump has stopped short of accusing Iran of this deed and there's good reason he has. The intelligence information regarding the missiles being fired from just on the border of Iran was intelligence as reported by Saudi Arabia. Since the Saudi's and Houthi's have been at war for years, it would be wise to assess this situation after intelligence is gathered from our other U.S. sources such as France and the UK.

This conflict and destruction of Saudi oil reserves is all about the war in Yemen. Yemen has some of the largest gold reserves in the region (even the Romans made no attempt to hide the fact they were invading it with an army of 10,000 men that was subsequently defeated, to get their hands on the yellow metal. The Saudis, and their partners in invading other countries, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), have been helping themselves to as much of the precious metal as they can, regardless of the fact that it is a natural resource that can lift millions of Yemenis out of poverty and even contribute to preventing the impending starvation of 11 million people who have had their homes, towns and cities destroyed (Yemen was already one of the poorest countries in the region, even before the Saudis and their allies obliterated their infrastructure).

Saudi Arabia engineered the very reasons it gave for invading Yemen by installing an un-elected, 'puppet' government in a country which (like Saudi Arabia itself) doesn’t have the capacity to hold proper elections. This also explains why the Yemeni president ran off to his buddy, Mohammed bin Salman, after scenting his first whiff of a Houthi rebel. While the situation in Yemen is complex the “real" reason for the Saudi offensive is the presence of Iranian influence. The Houthi's have received not just backing from Iran, but finance and weapons. Saudi Arabia cannot have have Iranian influence in another nation especially one that's so close to home. Many experts think that Saudi Arabia is using Yemen as a proxy war against Iran to control the region.

Evilroddy said:

beerftw:

Sources like the New York Times are now reporting that the attacks originated from somewhere inside Iraqi territory, which if true would seem to seriously diminish the chances of direct Houthi involvement in the attacks, despite earlier claims by the Houthis of responsibility. Thus, the jury is still out in my opinion. Whether Iranian-backed militias or some other non-state actor with an agenda were responsible remains to be seen.

Cheers.
Evilroddy.

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Houthis could have used Iraq as a base to fire. Saudi is using the direction of impact for that assessment but drones and cruise missiles can change direction and flight path. The flight path might have been chosen to come from that direction to avoid detection as the anticipated path would have been from the south

Lord Tammerlain said:

Houthis could have used Iraq as a base to fire. Saudi is using the direction of impact for that assessment but drones and cruise missiles can change direction and flight path. The flight path might have been chosen to come from that direction to avoid detection as the anticipated path would have been from the south

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Could the drones have been launched from Yemen?

Unitedwestand13 said:

Could the drones have been launched from Yemen?

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Yes but the range might have been an issue for them or the reported cruise missiles.

Iran has drones that are reported to be able to fly for 18 hrs so Houthis may have used versions of that. The reported cruise missiles may have had warheads removed to supply more fuel for linger flights. So yes they could have come from Yemen about 1100 km away if I recall correctly. Heck they could have been smuggled into Saudi Arabia and launched from Saudi territory. To much is unknown at this point other than all important infrastructure should now be considered at risk from something similar.

From the oil sands in Alberta to the massive refineries in the southern US. All need to be aware of the risk along with the governments involved. Any dissident group could easily buy a high quality drone and put some explosives on it.

If Iran is behind this large scale attack on KSA oil facilities, what does Iran hope to accomplish?

Rexedgar said:

If Iran is behind this large scale attack on KSA oil facilities, what does Iran hope to accomplish?

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Rexedgar:

A very good question! The answer to which may cause or avoid a war.

Cheers.
Evilroddy.

Evilroddy said:

beerftw:

Sources like the New York Times are now reporting that the attacks originated from somewhere inside Iraqi territory, which if true would seem to seriously diminish the chances of direct Houthi involvement in the attacks, despite earlier claims by the Houthis of responsibility. Thus, the jury is still out in my opinion. Whether Iranian-backed militias or some other non-state actor with an agenda were responsible remains to be seen.

Cheers.
Evilroddy.

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They could have originated there, however the base of that claim is off the direction of impact, the houthis however have clones of kh-55 missiles with beyond enough range, the only question being how many they have, and seeing as how they never use them they are likely in limited quantity. The drones can be extended as well in range.

What does this mean? Well since it got past defense systems and radars it can be easy to assume the attack flew below the radar and used open desert to avoid detection, rather than just flying straight to it's target. The literal term under the radar has a meaning, most radars can not detect low flying objects, save for s and L bands which are also littered with clutter, so the only way for a state to detect such low flying targets would be to have a high powered s or L band radar with high quality filters, and it is unknown id the ksa has such.

The mere angle of attack could have come from any direction, with the perps using low altitude and open desert to hide until it was too late, which would explain any nation doing such not going in a direct path but rather going indirect.

beerftw said:

They could have originated there, however the base of that claim is off the direction of impact, the houthis however have clones of kh-55 missiles with beyond enough range, the only question being how many they have, and seeing as how they never use them they are likely in limited quantity. The drones can be extended as well in range.

What does this mean? Well since it got past defense systems and radars it can be easy to assume the attack flew below the radar and used open desert to avoid detection, rather than just flying straight to it's target. The literal term under the radar has a meaning, most radars can not detect low flying objects, save for s and L bands which are also littered with clutter, so the only way for a state to detect such low flying targets would be to have a high powered s or L band radar with high quality filters, and it is unknown id the ksa has such.

The mere angle of attack could have come from any direction, with the perps using low altitude and open desert to hide until it was too late, which would explain any nation doing such not going in a direct path but rather going indirect.

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beerftw:

The latest reports are that the US Government is now claiming that the drones and cruise missiles were launched from Iran. If these accusations prove to be true then Iran has made a very serious error in international statecraft and could legitimately reap the whirlwind for its actions. I, will not believe the US Government claims unless they are backed up with publicly released and verifiable evidence, but if such evidence is presented then it does not look good for Iran. Iran or more likely a faction in Iran may just have screwed the country badly and should brace for reprisals. The next questions are which state(s) should deliver those reprisals and which state if any will attempt to defend Iran with military force?

The idea that Saudi Arabia and its allies could have not noticed a gaggle of cruise missiles and drones flying across its length or more likely around its perimeter is absurd. Both the Saudis and their allies have look-down radars and access to satellite tracking technology. I do not believe that a swarm of large drones and a gaggle of cruise missiles could have made it so far (from NW Yemen to the Saudi eastern interior) without detection. That a missile has the range to follow a circuitous route to a target does not mean it has the ability to follow that route undetected.

Cheers.
Evilroddy.

Evilroddy said:

beerftw:

The latest reports are that the US Government is now claiming that the drones and cruise missiles were launched from Iran. If these accusations prove to be true then Iran has made a very serious error in international statecraft and could legitimately reap the whirlwind for its actions. I, will not believe the US Government claims unless they are backed up with publicly released and verifiable evidence, but if such evidence is presented then it does not look good for Iran. Iran or more likely a faction in Iran may just have screwed the country badly and should brace for reprisals. The next questions are which state(s) should deliver those reprisals and which state if any will attempt to defend Iran with military force?

The idea that Saudi Arabia and its allies could have not noticed a gaggle of cruise missiles and drones flying across its length or more likely around its perimeter is absurd. Both the Saudis and their allies have look-down radars and access to satellite tracking technology. I do not believe that a swarm of large drones and a gaggle of cruise missiles could have made it so far (from NW Yemen to the Saudi eastern interior) without detection. That a missile has the range to follow a circuitous route to a target does not mean it has the ability to follow that route undetected.

Cheers.
Evilroddy.

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Perhaps just as important as launch location, is the choice of strike weapon(s). The Saudis (and their defenses) were clearly taken by surprise.

This attack was well thought out in the tactical sense.

Evilroddy said:

beerftw:

The latest reports are that the US Government is now claiming that the drones and cruise missiles were launched from Iran. If these accusations prove to be true then Iran has made a very serious error in international statecraft and could legitimately reap the whirlwind for its actions. I, will not believe the US Government claims unless they are backed up with publicly released and verifiable evidence, but if such evidence is presented then it does not look good for Iran. Iran or more likely a faction in Iran may just have screwed the country badly and should brace for reprisals. The next questions are which state(s) should deliver those reprisals and which state if any will attempt to defend Iran with military force?

The idea that Saudi Arabia and its allies could have not noticed a gaggle of cruise missiles and drones flying across its length or more likely around its perimeter is absurd. Both the Saudis and their allies have look-down radars and access to satellite tracking technology. I do not believe that a swarm of large drones and a gaggle of cruise missiles could have made it so far (from NW Yemen to the Saudi eastern interior) without detection. That a missile has the range to follow a circuitous route to a target does not mean it has the ability to follow that route undetected.

Cheers.
Evilroddy.

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both the us govt report and the saudi report focus on range being impossible from yemen, btw the saudis screwed it all up showing indisputable evidence it was launched from iran with their wreckage of the quds-1 missiles which were not quds-1 missiles, the wreckage they shown were soumar kh-55 clones with around 3 times the range us and saudi intel are claiming. The soumar has a range of around 1500 miles, and yemen houthis do have those missiles so it blows the they do not have the range theory out of the water. The mere fact the supposed experts could not tell the difference from a soviet clone missile and a short range iranian missile either says the people conducting intel are dumber than a fifth grader or are being intentionally dishonest.


Just for fun look at the pictures of the quds 1 cruise missile then the soumar then the wreckage, it is easy to tell it is not the quds 1 but the soumar missile. The mere claiming it was a missile with a 400ish mile range at this point is like a news report claiming a robber got away in a chevy and showing the getaway car as a ford.

In terms of detection, pulse doppler is limited in ground use, and is most effective in the air, which means awacs would have to be there during the attack to spot it. Satellites also can look everywhere if enough are in orbit, but it is impossible to look everywhere all the time in a manner to quick response. The only thing that really could have helped the ksa in this case would have been early detection high powered L band radar, which itself would have been used to alert their military of suspicious activity and send awacs and attack aircraft to respond.

The flying across the massive length is neccessary no matter which country it originated to avoid detection, you can fly low under the radar but it does no good if town xyz cals in a crapton of missiles and drones flying low, hence no matter which direction to avoid detection they would have used terrain maps to determine the route with the most cover and lowest number of civilians or military to possibly see them coming.