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Turkey and the United States, as a result of three-day negotiations, finally agreed to establish a focal point for joint operations and a planned security zone in northern Syria east of the Euphrates River. Does this mean that the United States ceded Ankara the decision on the withdrawal of the Kurdish formations from this zone in order to prevent the start of a new Turkish operation?
It's assumed that a zone with a width of 32 kilometers and a length of 460 kilometers along the Syrian-Turkish border will be controlled by Turkey in coordination with the United State. Members of the Kurdish forces will have to leave this territory and surrender heavy weapons. If such a zone is created, it will be divided into two parts. The first part will begin from the Iraqi-Syrian border and will be extended to the Syrian city of Qamishli, as Syrian government forces exercise control over this city. The second part of the security zone will start from Qamishli and stretch to Jarabulus. Manbij, where Turkey previously intended to conduct another anti-terrorist operation, is not included in the security zone. However, nothing is known about the specific details of the negotiations.
In fact, we can say that an agreement was reached to continue the dialogue, since specific figures were not given either on the extent of the security zone, or on the number of troops on both sides, or on the timing of the start of the joint operation. The same agreement was at one time on Manbij, but then the parties did not specifically come to an agreement.
Does this mean that the United States is simply trying to delay time, just to prevent the start of the next Turkish operation in Syria, which was announced by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on August 4. Maybe the statements of the Turkish side should be perceived as pressure on the United States to withdraw Kurdish troops from this zone? Of course, the United States is playing for time. In any case, they won't refuse to support the Kurdish forces, but probably they won't do so in an open way. They will definitely help them with intelligence. As for Turkey, Ankara understands the difficulties of conducting an operation on such a large territory; it is also not easy to control it. This is not the operation "Olive Branch", in this area there are professional, well-trained American Kurdish troops. For these reasons, both the US and Turkey are easier to come to an agreement.
Will the US be able to convince the "Self-Defense Forces" to leave this zone? Kurds just don't give up their goals, they may be forced to temporarily withdraw, but the YPG units in this case will be transformed into other associations, no matter what they are called. And the United States, as mentioned above, can continue to support them. But if Turkey begins a military operation with the tacit consent of the United States, then the Kurds will lose confidence in the Americans, in which case they will consider the option of an alliance with other countries.
Damascus didn't recognize the agreement reached between Turkey and the United States on the establishment of a security zone in northern Syria, considering it as a violation of the territorial integrity of the country. What does this mean? Government forces don't control even 30% of their territory, such are today's realities, part of Syria is occupied, Turkey is going to send troops to the east of the Euphrates, and Damascus can't oppose anything to this and is not able to suspend the process. Even Russia won't do this at the moment. After all, President Erdogan had already said that he had informed Russia of plans to start the operation; there was no negative reaction from Moscow. Apparently, this factor is taken into account here that, if an agreement is reached between the United States and Turkey to the detriment of Kurdish interests, they (the Kurds) will be interested in rapprochement with Damascus, and the path to the Syrian authorities lies through Moscow. Iran will have no leverage over the Kurds at all.
The decision to create a safe zone in northeastern Syria is a tricky move by the United States, seeking once again to justify its illegal presence in the SAR. Such actions are contrary to the principles of international law and in flagrant form violate the UN charter, since the Syrian government did not give permission for this. Of course, cooperation between Turkey and the United States is nothing more than an attempt to cover up the territorial expansion of Turkey in Syria.
