By Ben Watson
8/8/2019
Make no mistake, the war on ISIS is far from finished, according to a new inspector general report released by the Pentagon this week. “Despite losing its territorial ‘caliphate,’ the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) solidified its insurgent capabilities in Iraq and was resurging in Syria this quarter,” begins the report (PDF), which covers April to June.
So, why is ISIS resurgent in Syria? Sentence two says that is “in part because the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) remain unable to sustain long-term operations against ISIS militants.” And that’s because the SDF were busy training and preparing their troops for a U.S. withdrawal, and did not direct the primary thrust of their efforts at crushing what remains of ISIS in their vicinity, including, e.g., around the Middle Euphrates River Valley.
In Iraq, ISIS “solidified its insurgent capabilities” because the ISF — after billions in U.S. presence, training and assistance — remains a fledgling force that today, here in mid-2019, still “often lacks the ability to maintain hold forces in cleared territory.” (Recall that this was a quiet refrain of America’s efforts at building partner capacity that we knew back in 2015.)
In terms of what could lie next in Iraq, ISIS “is attempting to expand its influence over populations in the Sunni-majority provinces north and west of Baghdad, and has reorganized its leadership and established safe havens in rural Sunni-majority areas.”
By the numbers, ISIS “likely retains between 14,000 and 18,000 ‘members’ in Iraq and Syria, including up to 3,000 foreigners,” according to the report.
As for the ISIS prisoners held by the SDF, they number around 10,000 — with 2,000 of them classified as foreigners. And the facilities are described as “pop-up prisons” (page five), which doesn’t instill much confidence.
The recipe for SDF success against ISIS in Syria: “build trust with local communities and to develop the human-based intelligence necessary to confront ISIS resurgent cells and insurgent capabilities in Syria.”
But it’s unclear, of course, how or if that will pan out. At a July cabinet meeting, President Trump said, “We have 100 percent of the caliphate, and we’re rapidly pulling out of Syria. We’ll be out of there pretty soon. And let them handle their own problems. Syria can handle their own problems—along with Iran, along with Russia, along with Iraq, along with Turkey. We’re 7,000 miles away.”
