Consequences for Turkey of the build-up of NATO forces in the Black Sea

In mid-February 2019, the Secretary General of the North Atlantic Alliance, Jens Stoltenberg, announced that the Western military bloc would raise the issue of a “further increase” of the military presence in the Black Sea.

The Black Sea becomes a water area where NATO seeks to settle seriously and for a long time. This happens primarily due to the special position of NATO member Turkey, which freely passes military vessels of non-Black Sea countries of the alliance into the basin. The pass system only applies to ships of a certain tonnage and only for a specific, predetermined time limit. But at the same time, Ankara regularly and not unreasonably asserts that such an approach does not violate the notorious international Montreux Convention of 1936.

Now Turkey formally does not seem to violate anything, but the main thing is that Ankara is quite consciously going to provoke NATO’s military-political tensions with Russia. And we are talking primarily about the close approaches to Russian territory.

Meanwhile, it has been widely believed among military experts that Turkey, in case of a military presence of other NATO countries, risks losing the role of a leading player in the region or, in other words, to become an outcast. Recently, Turkey has been striving to conduct an independent international policy. It is increasingly coming closer to the Russian Federation. Examples of this are the purchase by Ankara of the S-400 missile systems from Russia, and the signing of a contract for the construction of the Turkish Stream. The leadership of the alliance does not like this behavior of Turkey. But Russia also condemns Turkey for allowing NATO to increase its military strength in the Black Sea. Ankara is trying to kill two birds with one stone. Its actions can lead to the situation that it would be rejected by both parties. When NATO reaches its goals in the Black Sea, the alliance will decide to punish Turkey for such close cooperation with Russia. Moscow, in turn, will turn its back on Turkey if it will continue to allow NATO warships to the Black Sea to violate an international convention.

Turkey is pursuing a dangerous policy, trying to maneuver between the two sides. If this leads to serious military incidents involving Russia and NATO ships in the Black Sea, Turkey may lose its independence in making decisions, become politically isolated and lose the status of a leading player in the region.

Turkey is formally a member of NATO and must abide by the Montreux Convention. If this upsets Moscow then that is too bad.

The Black Sea is an international body of water and besides Turkey, NATO members Bulgaria and Romania are also Black Sea littoral nations.