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Russia Can Stop a Slaughter in Idlib

Rogue Valley

Rogue Valley

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Russia Can Stop a Slaughter in Idlib

4213910-thumb.jpg

Putin and Assad -- The Chemical Brothers

9/7/18
A war that seems to be ending could still witness its most deadly assault yet. On Tuesday, President Donald Trump warned on Twitter that “President Bashar al-Assad of Syria must not recklessly attack Idlib Province,” adding it would be “a grave humanitarian mistake” for Russia and Iran to “take part in this potential human tragedy.” “Hundreds of thousands of people could be killed,” he concluded. “Don’t let that happen!” Yet U.S. policy toward a seemingly imminent Syrian military offensive on the country’s rebel-held northwestern Idlib province seems as if it will indeed let that happen. The U.S. has threatened military action if Damascus again uses chemical weapons, but, with some muddled exceptions, has otherwise only emphasized that an attack on Idlib would be a “reckless escalation.” The U.S. threat of force, and Russia’s rhetorical counter-punch, have sucked up much of the media oxygen around the possible offensive. But Idlib seems not to be America’s fight. Idlib’s fate hangs instead on neighboring Turkey, and on Syria’s ally Russia.

There is little prospect that the U.S. will intervene militarily for Idlib’s sake and risk a confrontation with Russia. But Turkey and Europe nonetheless possess real leverage. In a briefing for International Crisis Group, my colleagues and I have argued that Turkey and European donors need to make clear to Russia that a Syrian military victory in Idlib will have a substantial political cost, in addition to the toll in Syrian lives. They need to convince Russia that its own aims in Syria are better served by restraint and a return to negotiations with Turkey and Iran on a compromise solution, not by strong-arming Turkey and killing a large proportion of Idlib’s population. Idlib’s jihadists and the persistent violations of the de-escalation ceasefire are a genuine problem, and one that requires a solution. But that solution can still be one that is consensual and agreed between Turkey, Russia, and Iran, and one that spares innocent human life.
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As the Idlib offensive has already begun, there is no hint that Moscow will alter its enduring method of operations - indiscriminate carpet bombing of population centers with cluster bombs and fuel-air explosives - for this final assault on the various rebel groups that oppose the brutal regime of Bashar Assad. The US intelligence community has also noted numerous signs that the Assad government is moving stocks of chemical weapons. As with its previous offensives in Syria, this Idlib offensive will no doubt result in tens of thousands of new refugees seeking safety in European nations. This also plays into Moscow's hybrid warfare tactic of sowing division within Europe over how to deal with influxes of war refugees. With no accountability and a permanent UN veto, the Kremlin will again resort to war crimes on a large scale.
 
Rogue Valley said:
Russia Can Stop a Slaughter in Idlib

4213910-thumb.jpg

Putin and Assad -- The Chemical Brothers



As the Idlib offensive has already begun, there is no hint that Moscow will alter its enduring method of operations - indiscriminate carpet bombing of population centers with cluster bombs and fuel-air explosives - for this final assault on the various rebel groups that oppose the brutal regime of Bashar Assad. The US intelligence community has also noted numerous signs that the Assad government is moving stocks of chemical weapons. As with its previous offensives in Syria, this Idlib offensive will no doubt result in tens of thousands of new refugees seeking safety in European nations. This also plays into Moscow's hybrid warfare tactic of sowing division within Europe over how to deal with influxes of war refugees. With no accountability and a permanent UN veto, the Kremlin will again resort to war crimes on a large scale.
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You need to google carpet bombing, moscow has not carpet bombed anyone, and the us has not met that definition since vietnam. You still confuse strategic and carpet bombing, carpet bombing covers an entire area like a carpet covers a floor, while strategic bombing hits specific targets. one can have heavy civilian casualties while the other will have epic casualties. In reality if russia had carpet bombed any of those previous areas, we would have seen tens or hundreds of thousands dead per assault, and we did not, infact compared to many other wars the bombing raids are among the lowest casualties of modern wars.
 
beerftw said:
You need to google carpet bombing, moscow has not carpet bombed anyone, and the us has not met that definition since vietnam. You still confuse strategic and carpet bombing, carpet bombing covers an entire area like a carpet covers a floor, while strategic bombing hits specific targets. one can have heavy civilian casualties while the other will have epic casualties. In reality if russia had carpet bombed any of those previous areas, we would have seen tens or hundreds of thousands dead per assault, and we did not, infact compared to many other wars the bombing raids are among the lowest casualties of modern wars.
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Okay genius.... the Russians heavily bomb populated cities.

Make you feel better and all macho?
 
Rogue Valley said:
Okay genius.... the Russians heavily bomb populated cities.

Make you feel better and all macho?
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Not really, but I do hate carpet bombing being thrown around, even wiki only lists carpet bombing up to vietnam war, indicating no other country has done ti since the 70's.
 
Russia and Assad bomb large cities densely populated with civilians of all ages. High on the target lists are hospitals, clinics, and any location where first aid can be administered. Also highly targeted are first responders, and clearly designated as such. Other high value targets include food warehouses, water/sewage facilities, grain silos, schools, the power grid, oil/gas storage tanks and pipelines. The Assad regime uses barrel-bombs laced with a chlorine agent against civilians, and the RFAF uses various cluster munitions, thermite munitions, and fuel-air explosives. Many of these SOP practices constitute war crimes.
 
Syria's Assad has approved use of chlorine gas in Idlib: report

idlibprovincesyria_090318getty.jpg



9/10/18
Syrian President Bashar Assad has given approval for the use of chlorine gas in the country’s last remaining rebel holdout in Idlib province, U.S. officials told The Wall Street Journal on Sunday. If Assad deploys the chemical against the approximately 70,000 remaining opposition fighters in Idlib, President Trump has privately threatened to deploy a massive attack against him, people familiar with the exchange told the Journal. The Washington Post reported Friday that the president had approved a new strategy in Syria that would station 2,000 U.S. soldiers there indefinitely. Officials told the Journal that the president has not settled on the precise trigger for military action or if the U.S. response would target Syria’s Russian and Iranian allies. The president also issued harsh warnings last Wednesday, saying, “If it’s a slaughter, the world is going to get very, very angry, and the United States is going to get very angry too.”

The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff similarly indicated Saturday that the Pentagon has crafted military options for the president regarding Syria, but that the administration has not conclusively decided to engage militarily. Though military options are on the table, the Journal reports that U.S. officials have been attempting to keep an offensive from becoming necessary for weeks. U.S. officials told the Journal that national security adviser John Bolton and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo have requested that their Russian counterparts keep Assad from employing chemical weapons in Idlib. So far, there have been few signs that U.S. efforts have deterred Assad and his allies. Russia and Syria both launched airstrikes Saturday against Idlib and parts of the Hama province, killing almost two dozen civilians, the Journal reports. The coalition has also pummeled three hospitals since Friday, leaving thousands of Syrians without medical care.
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This could be why the US issued warnings to both Moscow and Damascus last week to not use chemical weapons in Idlib province. US intelligence no doubt became aware oft chlorine barrel-bombs being readied.

Related: Syria's Assad approves gas attack in Idlib despite warning, report says
 
Does the thought of your terrorist friends meeting their deaths upset you so?

Obviously it was okay to kill terrorists and civilians in the brutal assault on Raqqa, That wasn't carpet bombing of course. Collateral damage - all fully justified and unfortunate but
 
Does the thought of your terrorist friends meeting their deaths upset you so?

Obviously it was okay to kill terrorists and civilians in the brutal assaults on Raqqa and Mosul. That wasn't carpet bombing of course. Collateral damage - all fully justified but unfortunate, or never happened at all depending on which fantasy you choose.
 
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Westphalian said:
Does the thought of your terrorist friends meeting their deaths upset you so?

Obviously it was okay to kill terrorists and civilians in the brutal assault on Raqqa, That wasn't carpet bombing of course. Collateral damage - all fully justified and unfortunate but
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Ru$$ian fighters are currently massacring Civilians in Idlib. 3 million more ethnically cleansed.
 
Linc said:
Ru$$ian fighters are currently massacring Civilians in Idlib. 3 million more ethnically cleansed.
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Are you serious? 3 million ethnically cleansed?

There is nonsense and then there's this.
 
Rogue Valley said:
Syria's Assad has approved use of chlorine gas in Idlib: report

idlibprovincesyria_090318getty.jpg





This could be why the US issued warnings to both Moscow and Damascus last week to not use chemical weapons in Idlib province. US intelligence no doubt became aware oft chlorine barrel-bombs being readied.

Related: Syria's Assad approves gas attack in Idlib despite warning, report says
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I think this is why many are not believing us intel lately, when you claim officials said and offer no proof and no specifics, it just screams propoganda. If you are going to lie atleast be specific, russia atleast got that part down.
 
beerftw said:
I think this is why many are not believing us intel lately, when you claim officials said and offer no proof and no specifics, it just screams propoganda. If you are going to lie atleast be specific, russia atleast got that part down.
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Anyone that believes Lavrov or Zakharova needs a lobotomy.
 
Rogue Valley said:
Anyone that believes Lavrov or Zakharova needs a lobotomy.
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You can say the same for anyone who believes sources, no not cia sources, not govt sources, for all we know sources means the janitor. You also need to keep in mind both sides lie quite often, but the truth is usually inbetween. For example american intel has not only lied to the american people and the world, it is hard to point where they ever told the truth, even the former dni clapper admitted his job was to lie to the american people, and the cia has a near 100% record for lying, So you might need to learn to examing pictures instead of picking a chronic fibber while calling out the other chronic fibber like somehow your fibber just has to be telling the truth even after he lied a 1000 times to your face.
 
beerftw said:
You can say the same for anyone who believes sources, no not cia sources, not govt sources, for all we know sources means the janitor. You also need to keep in mind both sides lie quite often, but the truth is usually inbetween. For example american intel has not only lied to the american people and the world, it is hard to point where they ever told the truth, even the former dni clapper admitted his job was to lie to the american people, and the cia has a near 100% record for lying, So you might need to learn to examing pictures instead of picking a chronic fibber while calling out the other chronic fibber like somehow your fibber just has to be telling the truth even after he lied a 1000 times to your face.
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You believe your truths and I'll believe mine.
 
Putin Won’t Stop the Slaughter of Idlib

As Assad begins an assault on Syria’s last rebel stronghold, the world has fooled itself into thinking Russia will intervene.

If the past is a guide, Assad/Putin will be engaging in war crimes on a huge scale.
 
ACTUALLY

and for what it shows to be worth
Turkey and Russia decided to form a demilitarized zone between rebels and government forces in Syria’s Idlib region, President Tayyip Erdogan said on Monday. Speaking at a news conference alongside Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Russian city of Sochi, Erdogan said the two nations would carry out coordinated military patrols on the borders of the demilitarized zone.
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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-turkey-russia/turkey-russia-agree-idlib-demilitarized-zone-erdogan-says-idUSKCN1LX21Q

That actually makes sense (and Putin is not without it) in that any larger massacre would run against both Russia's and Turkey's interests.

Against Turkey's interests inasmuch as without this move another deluge of refugees could be expected to swamp her borders.

Against Russia's interests in that any hope of regaining some sort of positive international recognition could otherwise be kissed good bye. That recognition being direly needed if Russia wants to continue hoping for international assistance in rebuilding the Syria it has helped to destroy. Something it can in no way manage to do on its own, not having the financial means.

Beyond which engaging in any greater slaughter in Idleb would be pretty pointless, with Russia's active help all opposition to Assad has been rendered virtually dead already.

Interesting will be how, in future, the controversy between Russia and Turkey will go. Turkey wanting Assad gone and Russia wanting to keep him in power.

Also interesting to see will be who (which countries) is actually willing to cough up any help as long as Assad remains in the saddle.

In any case, if this measure avoids untold slaughter of civilians, let the future chips be made to fall in negotiations where they will when the time comes.
 
It must be heart breaking to see your favourite Islamists (the same Terrorists who despise America and would love to kill Americans given the chance) facing their demise.

But what a tangled web of insanity you have weaved for yourselves in Syria. Hard to feel sympathy for the West.
 
Nice demonstration of ignorance on the Syrian people (IOW knowing bugger all about them), to broadbrush the civilians in question here as all being terrorists.

Equally nice demonstration of same ignorance to equate very understandable opposition to Assad (both father in his time and son today) as something exclusively Islamist of the militant type.

Well, either born from that that or from the usual habit or propagandist lying.
 
Westphalian said:
It must be heart breaking to see your favourite Islamists (the same Terrorists who despise America and would love to kill Americans given the chance) facing their demise.

But what a tangled web of insanity you have weaved for yourselves in Syria. Hard to feel sympathy for the West.
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Self determination for rebels in Donbass = GOOD

Self determination for rebels in Syria = BAD.
 
Fledermaus said:
Self determination for rebels in Donbass = GOOD

Self determination for rebels in Syria = BAD.
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Can't really compare them. The "rebels" in Donbass are relatively uniform in ethnic and religious ways.

The problem with the rebels in Syria is they are so different from each other and there are so freaking many groups.

One thing no one really talks about, is the fact that among the rebels are in fact Al Q inspired and linked groups that the rebels don't do anything about. That is why the "rebels" in Syria can't be put under one umbrella or cause like in Donbass. The Al Q groups don't want a democracy and will continue the killing if they got power and I will be honest... rather have Assad than a new Taliban... no way in hell the moderate Syrian rebels could win.

Of course nothing is black and white and I know all sides work with each other depending on if a cricket in China farted into the wind.. but still.. better the devil you know.



Sendt fra min SM-N9005 med Tapatalk
 
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