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Russia Can Stop a Slaughter in Idlib
Putin and Assad -- The Chemical Brothers
As the Idlib offensive has already begun, there is no hint that Moscow will alter its enduring method of operations - indiscriminate carpet bombing of population centers with cluster bombs and fuel-air explosives - for this final assault on the various rebel groups that oppose the brutal regime of Bashar Assad. The US intelligence community has also noted numerous signs that the Assad government is moving stocks of chemical weapons. As with its previous offensives in Syria, this Idlib offensive will no doubt result in tens of thousands of new refugees seeking safety in European nations. This also plays into Moscow's hybrid warfare tactic of sowing division within Europe over how to deal with influxes of war refugees. With no accountability and a permanent UN veto, the Kremlin will again resort to war crimes on a large scale.
Putin and Assad -- The Chemical Brothers
9/7/18
A war that seems to be ending could still witness its most deadly assault yet. On Tuesday, President Donald Trump warned on Twitter that “President Bashar al-Assad of Syria must not recklessly attack Idlib Province,” adding it would be “a grave humanitarian mistake” for Russia and Iran to “take part in this potential human tragedy.” “Hundreds of thousands of people could be killed,” he concluded. “Don’t let that happen!” Yet U.S. policy toward a seemingly imminent Syrian military offensive on the country’s rebel-held northwestern Idlib province seems as if it will indeed let that happen. The U.S. has threatened military action if Damascus again uses chemical weapons, but, with some muddled exceptions, has otherwise only emphasized that an attack on Idlib would be a “reckless escalation.” The U.S. threat of force, and Russia’s rhetorical counter-punch, have sucked up much of the media oxygen around the possible offensive. But Idlib seems not to be America’s fight. Idlib’s fate hangs instead on neighboring Turkey, and on Syria’s ally Russia.
There is little prospect that the U.S. will intervene militarily for Idlib’s sake and risk a confrontation with Russia. But Turkey and Europe nonetheless possess real leverage. In a briefing for International Crisis Group, my colleagues and I have argued that Turkey and European donors need to make clear to Russia that a Syrian military victory in Idlib will have a substantial political cost, in addition to the toll in Syrian lives. They need to convince Russia that its own aims in Syria are better served by restraint and a return to negotiations with Turkey and Iran on a compromise solution, not by strong-arming Turkey and killing a large proportion of Idlib’s population. Idlib’s jihadists and the persistent violations of the de-escalation ceasefire are a genuine problem, and one that requires a solution. But that solution can still be one that is consensual and agreed between Turkey, Russia, and Iran, and one that spares innocent human life.
As the Idlib offensive has already begun, there is no hint that Moscow will alter its enduring method of operations - indiscriminate carpet bombing of population centers with cluster bombs and fuel-air explosives - for this final assault on the various rebel groups that oppose the brutal regime of Bashar Assad. The US intelligence community has also noted numerous signs that the Assad government is moving stocks of chemical weapons. As with its previous offensives in Syria, this Idlib offensive will no doubt result in tens of thousands of new refugees seeking safety in European nations. This also plays into Moscow's hybrid warfare tactic of sowing division within Europe over how to deal with influxes of war refugees. With no accountability and a permanent UN veto, the Kremlin will again resort to war crimes on a large scale.