Get Ready for a More Aggressive Turkey

This systemic transformation will have a huge impact on the conduct of foreign policy. For many years, Turkey’s highly regarded foreign service was composed exclusively of career diplomats who charted and guided the implementation Turkey’s foreign policy. The Foreign Ministry was thus seen as one of the three key pillars of the Turkish state along with the military and the Finance Ministry — institutions distinguished by their allegiance to the nation rather than the ruling party. Since the beginning of Erdogan’s first presidential term in 2014, the Foreign Ministry gradually lost its influence to the benefit of the executive branch.

The AKP’s new ally in parliament will be its elections partner, the ultranationalist National Movement Party (MHP). But this alliance will not be restricted to parliamentary affairs. The MHP will leverage its position as kingmaker and seek influence over all policymaking. This tacit alliance with the MHP will create a new set of difficulties for Erdogan in foreign policy.

The MHP’s deep suspicion of internationalism is bolstered by a siege mentality that regards Turkey’s national interests as constantly under threat by foreign actors. Unlike the AKP, which traces its roots to political Islam and essentially views the West as the ideological other, the MHP vision is less discriminatory. It nurtures an equal disdain for all foreigners. Erdogan’s necessary partnership with the MHP will therefore open Turkish foreign policy to the influence of the party’s ideology, with significant consequences for Turkey’s relations with its global and regional partners.

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