6/22/18
ISTANBUL—Few members of Turkey’s battered political opposition were surprised when President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan won the constitutional referendum of April 2017, which transformed the country from a European-style parliamentary government into a presidential system. What did surprise them: that after campaigning relentlessly, partnering with nationalists who were once his enemies, stirring up tensions with Germany and the Netherlands to bring out the diaspora vote, and allowing his supporters to intimidate those campaigning against expanding his powers, Erdoğan’s margin of victory was just under 3 percent. Allegations of vote irregularities, meanwhile, could have affected up to 2.5 million ballots. Galvanized by the results, Erdoğan’s opponents took to the streets to demand a recount. They later marched across the country to bring together the disparate opponents of Erdoğan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP). Ahead of the first round of elections on June 24, which could further entrench Erdoğan and the AKP, his liberal, nationalist, leftist, and Islamist opponents are trying to prevent potential cheating at polling stations. They seek to prevent Erdoğan from using the power of the state to seize victory, but also to restore confidence among their supporters that their votes will count.
Defeating Erdoğan won’t be easy. The elections will be held under a state of emergency that restricts public gatherings and civil liberties. Authorities have also imposed limits on public gathering and press activity in five provinces, according a report by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). In addition, the AKP and its nationalist allies pushed through a number of changes to the electoral law, including one that will allow voting stations to accept ballots that do not bear the election commission’s official stamp. many worry that if Erdoğan thinks he’s likely to face defeat, he will cheat anyway. “I see fraud,” a political counselor at one Western embassy told me. “They’re going to create any sort of obstacle for opponents. But I think he would do paper fraud in the end. I don’t think he’ll give up power.” Indeed, even if Erdoğan’s opponents uncover irregularities, it’s uncertain whether election commissioners beholden to the president would rule against him. According to the opposition, Turkey’s high election commission has repeatedly failed to take their concerns and allegations seriously. “Erdoğan is cheating already. He cheated before. And he will probably cheat again,” said Selim Sazak, a Washington-based opposition supporter and a researcher at Brown University. “We document irregularities, we post videos, and then what? We go file a petition to the election commission, where it dies on arrival. I’m not saying that it’s pointless. If we don’t do this much, we stand no chance. None whatsoever. Erdoğan would win with 200 percent. The opposition has a gashing wound. The anti-cheating organization is a Band-Aid.”
