"I Know What the October Surprise is Going to Be"

[FONT=&quot]Quote:[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Well... now we know what the "October surprise" will be that will give Thump his reason to cancel the midterms...

Boots on the ground in Iran...

H.R. McMaster is officially out as National Security Advisor...
Being replaced by John Bolton's Mustache... effective April 9th...

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[FONT=&quot]Is Trump going to just re-hire every Republican criminal from the last 20 years...?[/FONT]

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David's Snarky Politics Place
https://www.facebook.com/SnarkyPolitics/posts/1693627597396069

--Mike Pompeo and John Bolton have been having a wet dream about war with Iran for twenty years. And if we commit to this misadventure with a looming budget deficit, which we most likely will because "deficits don't matter" we will probably bankrupt ourselves Soviet style.


Oh and, don't forget, even though this is an elective mission, "you go to war with the army you have", even though that's usually what you have to do if YOU are the one BEING attacked, not the other way around.
So count on a replay of bodies being maimed and stacked like cordwood all over again, at the VA, or at the privatized clinics that replace the VA.
Hey, we're JOB CREATORS!


Count on bake sales to buy body armor and DIY up-armored Humvees all over again, because we left all our hardware in Iraq, essentially gifting it all to ISIS.


What will the official line of BS be for war with Iran? Weapons of mass destruction all over again? Will there be more incubator babies, too? Curveball? Iran version of Chalabi?
Will there be more pallet-loads of hundred dollar bills all shrink wrapped for distribution?
More Halliburton built showers that electrocute soldiers?
Gee, I can't wait, this sounds fun.

You better be wrong. But, I wouldn't put it past the A-hole in chief.

Checkerboard Strangler said:

David's Snarky Politics Place
https://www.facebook.com/SnarkyPolitics/posts/1693627597396069

--Mike Pompeo and John Bolton have been having a wet dream about war with Iran for twenty years. And if we commit to this misadventure with a looming budget deficit, which we most likely will because "deficits don't matter" we will probably bankrupt ourselves Soviet style.


Oh and, don't forget, even though this is an elective mission, "you go to war with the army you have", even though that's usually what you have to do if YOU are the one BEING attacked, not the other way around.
So count on a replay of bodies being maimed and stacked like cordwood all over again, at the VA, or at the privatized clinics that replace the VA.
Hey, we're JOB CREATORS!


Count on bake sales to buy body armor and DIY up-armored Humvees all over again, because we left all our hardware in Iraq, essentially gifting it all to ISIS.


What will the official line of BS be for war with Iran? Weapons of mass destruction all over again? Will there be more incubator babies, too? Curveball? Iran version of Chalabi?
Will there be more pallet-loads of hundred dollar bills all shrink wrapped for distribution?
More Halliburton built showers that electrocute soldiers?
Gee, I can't wait, this sounds fun.

Click to expand...

I don't think so

Excerpt from "The American Conservative"
The Untold Story of John Bolton’s Campaign for War With Iran

The U.S.-Israeli strategy would later hit the jackpot, however, when a large cache of documents supposedly from a covert source within Iran’s nuclear weapons program surfaced in autumn 2004. The documents, allegedly found on the laptop computer of one of the participants, included technical drawings of a series of efforts to redesign Iran’s Shahab-3 missile to carry what appeared to be a nuclear weapon.

But the whole story of the so-called “laptop documents” was a fabrication. In 2013, a former senior German official revealed the true story to this writer: the documents had been given to German intelligence by the Mujahedin E Khalq(1), the anti-Iran armed group that was well known to have been used by Mossad to “launder” information the Israelis did not want attributed to themselves. Furthermore, the drawings showing the redesign that were cited as proof of a nuclear weapons program were clearly done by someone who didn’t know that Iran had already abandoned the Shahab-3’s nose cone for an entirely different design.

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The Untold Story of John Bolton’s Campaign for War With Iran | The American Conservative

(1) Obama Pins Fate of Nuclear Pact on Documents From an Iranian "Curveball"

Checkerboard Strangler said:

David's Snarky Politics Place
https://www.facebook.com/SnarkyPolitics/posts/1693627597396069

--Mike Pompeo and John Bolton have been having a wet dream about war with Iran for twenty years. And if we commit to this misadventure with a looming budget deficit, which we most likely will because "deficits don't matter" we will probably bankrupt ourselves Soviet style.


Oh and, don't forget, even though this is an elective mission, "you go to war with the army you have", even though that's usually what you have to do if YOU are the one BEING attacked, not the other way around.
So count on a replay of bodies being maimed and stacked like cordwood all over again, at the VA, or at the privatized clinics that replace the VA.
Hey, we're JOB CREATORS!


Count on bake sales to buy body armor and DIY up-armored Humvees all over again, because we left all our hardware in Iraq, essentially gifting it all to ISIS.


What will the official line of BS be for war with Iran? Weapons of mass destruction all over again? Will there be more incubator babies, too? Curveball? Iran version of Chalabi?
Will there be more pallet-loads of hundred dollar bills all shrink wrapped for distribution?
More Halliburton built showers that electrocute soldiers?
Gee, I can't wait, this sounds fun.

Click to expand...

They don't have the guts. The country won;t let'em pull it off, especially with Iraq in the rear view mirror.

BONUS EXTRA:
Bolton doesn't just want war with Iran, he wants war with North Korea too, maybe at the same time.

Incoming National Security Adviser John Bolton has been vocal about going to war with North Korea and Iran

I'd sure love to know where we intend to come up with enough bodies for two five trillion dollar meat grinders running full blast at the same time.
Guess it's time to start the draft again, for everyone EXCEPT billionaire sons who have bone spurs?

An October surprise would be Muellers final report. Just in time for the midterms:lol:

Let me hasten to add that, I have no doubts about our military's ability to inflict massive damage to the infrastructure of both nations. We have by far the most powerful military in the world.
That's not what's lacking.
What's lacking is a clear plan of action for what to do AFTER the spectacular "Shock and Awe" campaigns, which look great on the television screens in your living room, but which don't carry any significant hints at what we plan to do afterward.

In the DPRK, we would be suddenly tasked with babysitting twenty-three million zombie cult members who have committed their lives to worshipping their god, Kim Jong Un.
Even with the most hardened idea, letting them starve, you're looking at a humanitarian crisis that dwarfs anything in modern history, even the twenty million Soviet deaths at the hands of the Third Reich.
And the IMMEDIATE price tag in terms of casualties would be several hundred thousand Korean civilian dead in Seoul, which no matter what we do, would be automatically vaporized.
Even our military lacks ANY means to prevent the suicide pact to destroy Seoul if anything so much as twitches near the 38th Parallel.

Now add in the instantaneous American dead stationed in South Korea.
Now add in an endless street to street insurgent battle.
Now add in China's reaction, DPRK is their client state, and they are committed to protecting them.
So now it's war with China, THREE fronts.

yankintx said:

An October surprise would be Muellers final report. Just in time for the midterms:lol:

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We better PRAY that's what it is instead.

jet57 said:

They don't have the guts. The country won;t let'em pull it off, especially with Iraq in the rear view mirror.

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jet57:

Just watch them. Since getting away with Iraq in 2003 the militarist war-hawks have been emboldened. They will try and they will succeed in starting a war, somewhere. My money is on Iran because that's the only place that Defence Secretary Mattis hates so much that the likes of Bolton and Pompeo can disable his otherwise sound strategic sense and get him on board. What happens next is not so clear, as a cascade of wars might follow with N. Korea, the wider Middle East and China at the same time. These Neocons like Bolton and Pompeo are manic militarists who want wars for both ideological and economic reasons and they are not particular about the winnability of such wars or the cost in American lives and treasure such wars entail. Welcome to the forever-war.

Cheers?
Evilroddy.

Simply put, John Bolton is a goddam CHICKENHAWK.
He talks like one, he acts like one, and he beats the war drum like one.

He wrote in his Yale 25th reunion book:
"I confess I had no desire to die in a Southeast Asian rice paddy. I considered the war in Vietnam already lost."

Bolton enlisted in the Maryland Army National Guard in 1970 rather than wait to find out if his draft number would be called.
I guess he intended to protect the Republic of Maryland from their enemies across the Chesapeake in Newport News.

He's in good company. His boss is one, too.

Checkerboard Strangler said:

We better PRAY that's what it is instead.

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Mr Mueller will put the O in obstruction. The Adorables are so brain washed they can't see Trump is already screwed. Trump could give Tricky Dicky a lesson in blatant obstruction. I say let the Dems handle it after Nov if the GOP won't.

Evilroddy said:

jet57:

Just watch them. Since getting away with Iraq in 2003 the militarist war-hawks have been emboldened. They will try and they will succeed in starting a war, somewhere. My money is on Iran because that's the only place that Defence Secretary Mattis hates so much that the likes of Bolton and Pompeo can disable his otherwise sound strategic sense and get him on board. What happens next is not so clear, as a cascade of wars might follow with N. Korea, the wider Middle East and China at the same time. These Neocons like Bolton and Pompeo are manic militarists who want wars for both ideological and economic reasons and they are not particular about the winnability of such wars or the cost in American lives and treasure such wars entail. Welcome to the forever-war.

Cheers?
Evilroddy.

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Like I said before, I'm not worried about our ability to inflict damage.
I wonder what the Blue **** we intend to do afterward.
I see nothing that speaks to a victory plan, which involves an actual SURRENDER by the other side.
Surrender is the very last thing chickenhawks want because then war is OVER, swords get beaten into plowshares and peaceful initiatives commence, which means we must then plan in earnest to heal the conquered. No more checks to the defense contractors, instead checks must then go to things which cost in human terms, food, energy, schools, manufacturing.
Are we going to give Iran a means to make cars for us to buy?
They can't refine their own oil. Does that mean we need to start shipping oil to them?
We'd have to because the moment an attack is imminent, the Iran Republican Guard would render the Strait of Hormuz impassible for well over a year or more.
That's a fact.

What happens to the Middle East oil states when their only passage (choke point) for petroleum is blocked?

yankintx said:

Mr Mueller will put the O in obstruction. The Adorables are so brain washed they can't see Trump is already screwed. Trump could give Tricky Dicky a lesson in blatant obstruction. I say let the Dems handle it after Nov if the GOP won't.

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If we start a war before Mueller's report, you can kiss the report goodbye, because it will be time to
"rally round the flag and unite in patriotism" once again, and anyone who dares question the war will be on the receiving end of the full court press as "enemy of the people".

You know how this cheap parlor trick plays out.

And the establishment wing of the Democratic Party is good for one thing and one thing only in situations like this:
BENDING OVER.
They are frightened to death of being accused of being "soft on terrorism".

Checkerboard Strangler said:

David's Snarky Politics Place
https://www.facebook.com/SnarkyPolitics/posts/1693627597396069

--Mike Pompeo and John Bolton have been having a wet dream about war with Iran for twenty years. And if we commit to this misadventure with a looming budget deficit, which we most likely will because "deficits don't matter" we will probably bankrupt ourselves Soviet style.


Oh and, don't forget, even though this is an elective mission, "you go to war with the army you have", even though that's usually what you have to do if YOU are the one BEING attacked, not the other way around.
So count on a replay of bodies being maimed and stacked like cordwood all over again, at the VA, or at the privatized clinics that replace the VA.
Hey, we're JOB CREATORS!


Count on bake sales to buy body armor and DIY up-armored Humvees all over again, because we left all our hardware in Iraq, essentially gifting it all to ISIS.


What will the official line of BS be for war with Iran? Weapons of mass destruction all over again? Will there be more incubator babies, too? Curveball? Iran version of Chalabi?
Will there be more pallet-loads of hundred dollar bills all shrink wrapped for distribution?
More Halliburton built showers that electrocute soldiers?
Gee, I can't wait, this sounds fun.

Click to expand...

Bombing iran would be an epic mistake, as iran is a direct ally of russia, and such a war could lead to direct war with russia and possibly escalate into nuclear war. Syria is also a russian ally, but in syria we used proxies for fighting against their govt rather than a direct attack. If proxies were used the goal might be achieved, but a direct invasion of iran is a near guaranteed suicide, and most sane govt leaders know that and instead choose by proxy.

Checkerboard Strangler said:

If we start a war before Mueller's report, you can kiss the report goodbye, because it will be time to
"rally round the flag and unite in patriotism" once again, and anyone who dares question the war will be on the receiving end of the full court press as "enemy of the people".

You know how this cheap parlor trick plays out.

Click to expand...

For all of our sakes I hope you are wrong.

Checkerboard Strangler said:

Like I said before, I'm not worried about our ability to inflict damage.
I wonder what the Blue **** we intend to do afterward.
I see nothing that speaks to a victory plan, which involves an actual SURRENDER by the other side.
Surrender is the very last thing chickenhawks want because then war is OVER, swords get beaten into plowshares and peaceful initiatives commence, which means we must then plan in earnest to heal the conquered. No more checks to the defense contractors, instead checks must then go to things which cost in human terms, food, energy, schools, manufacturing.
Are we going to give Iran a means to make cars for us to buy?
They can't refine their own oil. Does that mean we need to start shipping oil to them?
We'd have to because the moment an attack is imminent, the Iran Republican Guard would render the Strait of Hormuz impassible for well over a year or more.
That's a fact.

What happens to the Middle East oil states when their only passage (choke point) for petroleum is blocked?

Click to expand...

We can inflict massive damage, we can most easily overrun their govt if russia did not intervene(lebanon will for sure though) the problem there is no matter what plan for after it would be a mess. It is a shia country and the shia militias would keep fighting even if their govt fell, and they do not fight like cowards like arab countries that often use terrorism rather than direct conflict, shia militias resort to either guerilla warfare or direct warfare.

Even with them being more brave and organized though, they would not be close enough in power to rival a us military, but beyond sufficient to sustain a never ending conflict in the country which would require a never ending military presence to combat them. Also to note iranian shia militias as well as syrian fighters and hezbollah have all been battle hardened from years of the syrian civil war, this would make it very costly for anyone who tries to waltz in thinking it would be a cakewalk and the govt would fall in 2 weeks.

beerftw said:

Even with them being more brave and organized though, they would not be close enough in power to rival a us military, but beyond sufficient to sustain a never ending conflict in the country which would require a never ending military presence to combat them.

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"never ending military presence to combat them"
TRANSLATION: Never ending revenue stream for military CONTRACTORS and associated support infrastructure (Halliburton II)

beerftw said:

Also to note iranian shia militias as well as syrian fighters and hezbollah have all been battle hardened from years of the syrian civil war, this would make it very costly for anyone who tries to waltz in thinking it would be a cakewalk and the govt would fall in 2 weeks.

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"Waltzing in thinking it would be a cakewalk" is how every single war in the last thirty years has been sold to the American people.

And all you have to do in any case is scare the holy crap out of them.
Make them see turbans, camels and suicide vests marching down Main Street on one side, and paint a picture of "faggy/commie" Kumbaya singing hippie America-haters on the other.
PROJECT SOLD

Works every time!

Doesn't matter if we have a plan at all, just let's get started and we'll figure it out along the way, just as we have over and over and over again.

If there is a calculated threat, then it is quantifiable.
If there is one thing that the REAL hawks (not the chickenhawks - the real ones) are good at, it is quantifying in real numbers and terms what the threat is, how to deal with it, and what to do afterwards.

The problem is, those real hawks have to answer to civilian chickenhawks who want to hear a sweet bedtime story made of cherry picked intel that makes THEM look like the heroes.
Ask ANY real hawk if that isn't the case.

Even Mad Dog Mattis, if he wasn't currently employed by 45, would most likely tell you that his biggest problem is when his civilian counterparts DON'T WANT TO HEAR THE WHOLE STORY, because the whole story often contains bad news and impossible objectives, which give the civilian chickenhawks the sadz.

And if it's one thing guys like Mattis are, it's pragmatic where their own hide is concerned, and as much as I despise the reality, I can't say I blame them.
Mattis isn't about to go out being condemned for not getting on board with the mission and getting his legacy trashed in the sunset of his military career.

I have to say one thing in support of George H.W. Bush (Bush 41):
At least he demanded a clear plan of action, and demanded sufficient prep time.
He wanted a plan to win decisively, and because he lacked sufficient support from allies for taking out Hussein and the nation-building efforts that would come later, he had to be satisfied with his limited victory in Kuwait.

jet57 said:

They don't have the guts. The country won;t let'em pull it off, especially with Iraq in the rear view mirror.

Click to expand...

Tell that to Trump and Bolton.
It isn't even a matter of guts anyway, it's a matter of selling strategy.
As the old saying goes, "We used to manufacture weapons to fight wars, now we manufacture wars to sell weapons."

Checkerboard Strangler said:

David's Snarky Politics Place
https://www.facebook.com/SnarkyPolitics/posts/1693627597396069

--Mike Pompeo and John Bolton have been having a wet dream about war with Iran for twenty years. And if we commit to this misadventure with a looming budget deficit, which we most likely will because "deficits don't matter" we will probably bankrupt ourselves Soviet style.


Oh and, don't forget, even though this is an elective mission, "you go to war with the army you have", even though that's usually what you have to do if YOU are the one BEING attacked, not the other way around.
So count on a replay of bodies being maimed and stacked like cordwood all over again, at the VA, or at the privatized clinics that replace the VA.
Hey, we're JOB CREATORS!


Count on bake sales to buy body armor and DIY up-armored Humvees all over again, because we left all our hardware in Iraq, essentially gifting it all to ISIS.


What will the official line of BS be for war with Iran? Weapons of mass destruction all over again? Will there be more incubator babies, too? Curveball? Iran version of Chalabi?
Will there be more pallet-loads of hundred dollar bills all shrink wrapped for distribution?
More Halliburton built showers that electrocute soldiers?
Gee, I can't wait, this sounds fun.

Click to expand...

Iran is the US's best bet for an ally in the region. Since Saddam was lynched, anyway. There's no reason the US can't adjust to working with the Iranian government, especially with them looking like edging towards a more liberal society.

Grand Mal said:

Iran is the US's best bet for an ally in the region. Since Saddam was lynched, anyway. There's no reason the US can't adjust to working with the Iranian government, especially with them looking like edging towards a more liberal society.

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I don't know if I could call them an ally, but for the record, they didn't launch attacks on us, Saudis did. They aren't a calming force but considering our CIA actions in 1953, they almost appear as a rational actor. The adjustment would have to consist of us admitting to what we did to Mossadegh.

Iran isn't going to "work with us" ever.
But that's not a deal breaker. We simply have to cut the cords that tie us to the narrative we've been using since we cozied up to the Shah. Far better we let the mullahs destroy each other, they're doing a grand job of it all by themselves.

By "rational actor", I mean that they're doing what almost any country would do after being overthrown by the CIA. The rational response was to overthrow the brutal SAVAK apparatus, send the Shah packing and install a revolutionary government. Unfortunately for us, it just happened to be a radical islamist icon.
Had it been a secular figure, we might have been able to patch things up within say perhaps a five year period. Khomeini used the boilerplate "kill the Western infidels" campaign to shore up support, and they quite naturally viewed Israel as our client state, which they are.

When people talk of "working with the Iranian government", I see visions of Ollie North and cocaine being transported to US cities as a side bonus.

We've spent nearly forty years building up a boogeyman. Iran fulfills that role because we leave them little alternative. We're buddies with their sworn enemy, the Sunni-dominated House of Saud.

Checkerboard Strangler said:

Tell that to Trump and Bolton.
It isn't even a matter of guts anyway, it's a matter of selling strategy.
As the old saying goes, "We used to manufacture weapons to fight wars, now we manufacture wars to sell weapons."

Click to expand...

Trump and Bolten are the 300 million of us.