A good overview for Turkey's Afrin operation against YPG

Overview for Turkey's Afrin operation against YPG

A Turkish attack on the Kurdish “People’s Protection Units” (YPG), the Syrian affiliate of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), was long expected. For most observers, the question was not if, but when, where, and under what circumstances.

Now we have the answers: seizing on an inflammatory (and subsequently amended) U.S. statement concerning Washington’s cooperation with the YPG-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Turkey has launched an aerial and ground offensive against the YPG-held enclave of Afrin in north-west Syria.

The battle is likely to prove indecisive and costly for both sides. It is already a tremendous headache for Washington, their mutual ally, and putting huge strain on North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO)-member Turkey’s relations with the U.S. Unless all involved adjust their strategies, including a return to a broader peace process in the PKK’s decades-old insurgency in Turkey, it may also prove a sign of worse to come.

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https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-.../syria/no-winners-turkeys-new-offensive-syria

A very good article, objective and informative. What I gathered from it, beside its being destined to be a failure for both sides because of environmental and military difficulties.

First: Yes YPG is the Syrian affiliate of PKK (recognized as terrorist organization, by EU, UN and USA, and many other countries) a group which killed thousands of Turkish civilians in the past. They keep planting bombs in city centers, not really tergeting only Turkish military. Just type: PKK, civilians, city keywords on google. It could be not comforting thing to have Syrian affiliate of that terrorist group which killed thosands of people as your Southern neighbour. Any country would object that.

Second: No, Afrin is outside of USA's framework of its counter-ISIS efforts. Check the article for that. So it will not effect USA's or any other country's Anti-ISIS efforts, as it will be solely Turkish VS Syrian PKK war.

So to end it: as a secular Turk myself, I object to this operation but for different reasons. Yes YPG, is basically Syrian branch of PKK, (even though its efforts agains ISIS should be appreciated) and having them powerful in south may boost PKK and give them the edge of killing more. As YPG can easily arm PKK more that way.

But, Erdogan is wrong of thinking this will be that easy, as written in the article, area is tough, and this will be failed operation it seems. So it won't give him anything other then cheap points for elections to come. Plus if you are gonna go for an operation like this, be more communicative with USA, our main ally, and convince them that it will not effect our common anti-ISIS campaign and it is just to stop YPG-PKK dominance in the region.

Re: Overview for Turkey's Afrin operation against YPG

kaerin said:

https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-.../syria/no-winners-turkeys-new-offensive-syria

A very good article, objective and informative. What I gathered from it, beside its being destined to be a failure for both sides because of environmental and military difficulties.

First: Yes YPG is the Syrian affiliate of PKK (recognized as terrorist organization, by EU, UN and USA, and many other countries) a group which killed thousands of Turkish civilians in the past. They keep planting bombs in city centers, not really tergeting only Turkish military. Just type: PKK, civilians, city keywords on google. It could be not comforting thing to have Syrian affiliate of that terrorist group which killed thosands of people as your Southern neighbour. Any country would object that.

Second: No, Afrin is outside of USA's framework of its counter-ISIS efforts. Check the article for that. So it will not effect USA's or any other country's Anti-ISIS efforts, as it will be solely Turkish VS Syrian PKK war.

So to end it: as a secular Turk myself, I object to this operation but for different reasons. Yes YPG, is basically Syrian branch of PKK, (even though its efforts agains ISIS should be appreciated) and having them powerful in south may boost PKK and give them the edge of killing more. As YPG can easily arm PKK more that way.

But, Erdogan is wrong of thinking this will be that easy, as written in the article, area is tough, and this will be failed operation it seems. So it won't give him anything other then cheap points for elections to come. Plus if you are gonna go for an operation like this, be more communicative with USA, our main ally, and convince them that it will not effect our common anti-ISIS campaign and it is just to stop YPG-PKK dominance in the region.

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Perhaps nameless Intelligence Agencies use ISIS as a tool to justify hegemonic interventions and cause confusion among allies and enemies alike. It is the USA arming the Kurds. Arming them now after ISIS is defeated. The USA projecting a 30,000 strong army for the Kurdish region. USA policy is the root cause of this instability. Gosh, who'd a thunk it, eh? The region is Syria and all others have no business there, either Turkey or USA. Syria and Iraq have both shown deference to their Kurdish regons and are the closest to true allies that the Kurds have. The embroglio should be solved by LOCALS. Iraq, Turkey, and Syria.
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Re: Overview for Turkey's Afrin operation against YPG

Anyone doubting the qualification of the author, here his CV

Noah Bonsey

Crisis Group Role
Noah Bonsey is Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst on Syria. He has contributed to coverage of Syria since May 2012, and joined the organization full-time in April 2013. He is based in Beirut and travels throughout the region covering the conflict.

Areas of Expertise
The Syrian conflict
Geopolitical dynamics in the Levant
Jihadi movements
Professional Background
Prior to his current position, Noah worked for three years as an Arabic social media analyst for a private consulting firm, managing a team of analysts focusing on regional political and militant affairs. He holds a Bachelor’s degree from Williams College and a Master’s in Arabic from the University of Maryland.

Languages
English
Arabic

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Re: Overview for Turkey's Afrin operation against YPG

DaveFagan said:

Perhaps nameless Intelligence Agencies use ISIS as a tool to justify hegemonic interventions and cause confusion among allies and enemies alike. It is the USA arming the Kurds. Arming them now after ISIS is defeated. The USA projecting a 30,000 strong army for the Kurdish region. USA policy is the root cause of this instability. Gosh, who'd a thunk it, eh? The region is Syria and all others have no business there, either Turkey or USA. Syria and Iraq have both shown deference to their Kurdish regons and are the closest to true allies that the Kurds have. The embroglio should be solved by LOCALS. Iraq, Turkey, and Syria.
/

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Interesting, do you have an evidence that USO is arming YPG?

Re: Overview for Turkey's Afrin operation against YPG

kaerin said:

Interesting, do you have an evidence that USO is arming YPG?

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To initiate a force of 30,000, you must supply 30,000 weapons. Also money, training, and other logistics. The USA stated it intended to create this force.
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Re: Overview for Turkey's Afrin operation against YPG

DaveFagan said:

To initiate a force of 30,000, you must supply 30,000 weapons. Also money, training, and other logistics. The USA stated it intended to create this force.
/

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And how do American people react to that?

Re: Overview for Turkey's Afrin operation against YPG

kaerin said:

And how do American people react to that?

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They don't. The MSM never relates this reality to delivery of training, arms, etc. They think the US is there to spread freedom, liberty, peace, justice, and democracy and are constantly reassured by the MSM that is the real skinny. Mesmerized, hypnotized, medicated, and free from independent or creative thoughts and "don't pop my bubble," it's real comfy in here and that will eliminate reaction of any kind.
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Re: Overview for Turkey's Afrin operation against YPG

kaerin said:

https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-.../syria/no-winners-turkeys-new-offensive-syria

A very good article, objective and informative. What I gathered from it, beside its being destined to be a failure for both sides because of environmental and military difficulties.

First: Yes YPG is the Syrian affiliate of PKK (recognized as terrorist organization, by EU, UN and USA, and many other countries) a group which killed thousands of Turkish civilians in the past. They keep planting bombs in city centers, not really tergeting only Turkish military. Just type: PKK, civilians, city keywords on google. It could be not comforting thing to have Syrian affiliate of that terrorist group which killed thosands of people as your Southern neighbour. Any country would object that.

Second: No, Afrin is outside of USA's framework of its counter-ISIS efforts. Check the article for that. So it will not effect USA's or any other country's Anti-ISIS efforts, as it will be solely Turkish VS Syrian PKK war.

So to end it: as a secular Turk myself, I object to this operation but for different reasons. Yes YPG, is basically Syrian branch of PKK, (even though its efforts agains ISIS should be appreciated) and having them powerful in south may boost PKK and give them the edge of killing more. As YPG can easily arm PKK more that way.

But, Erdogan is wrong of thinking this will be that easy, as written in the article, area is tough, and this will be failed operation it seems. So it won't give him anything other then cheap points for elections to come. Plus if you are gonna go for an operation like this, be more communicative with USA, our main ally, and convince them that it will not effect our common anti-ISIS campaign and it is just to stop YPG-PKK dominance in the region.

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Just to comment, yes the pkk is definately a terrorist group, no denying that. However turkey has often been worse than the pkk throughout it's history depending on who ran the country, the worst has been erdogan, who has bulldozed towns and oppressed kurds to an extreme that is legally defined as ethnic cleansing, so to the rest of the world that does not have media run by turkey that shows only what turkish govt wants seen, erdogan is a monster and a genocidal maniac.

You are correct afrin is not in the us area for the fight against isis, infact almost all the area they taken so far was not run by the kurds, but afrin is close to allepo which makes one wonder if the real goal is turkey trying to march towards allepo and overthrow assad since the us govt backed out of overthrowing him and focused on isis instead.

The turkish are very soft on isis, and members of their own govt do not even recognize isis as terrorists but rather angry sunni muslims with a legitimate cause, turkey has been changing it's tune recently on hamas as well. This in turn becomes a game of who is the bigger state sponsor of terror, in technichality iran should not be the top on their state sponsor list, at this point it should be turkey.

In terms of turkey thinking wrong you are correct, their military does a great job when they are attacking unarmed kurds and destroying villages, but so far in the fight they have yet to take any significant ground in afrin, against an under armed enemy with lower numbers. When my coworker whho was sf was told about the invasion his answer was turkey must be a special kind of stupid, because the kurds fight like israelis, they will fight down to the last man and even if turkey managed to win, the loss would be so great that there would have been no point to victory at all.