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What will be US foreign policy in middle east under Trump?

IceteaGreen

DP Veteran
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Jan 5, 2006
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Location
Belgium
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Greetings everybody !

Looking from our old europe the development of US politics in the last few months (and thanks for the show, it is spectacular !), I start to get really puzzled concerning your future president’s foreign policy strategy,and would really like to have your opinion about this (especially towards those who voted for Trump).

For the last 40-50 years, the complete middle-east mess we’re in, and that is spreading globally, is more or less resulting of the power struggle of East (USSR, then Russia) Vs West (USA) for access of oil. This struggle for influence resulted (or is reinforced by, depending the point of view) in some kind of religious clash between sunni islam and shia Islam, giving a geopolitical map a bit like this (oversimplified I know :) ) :

Team USA :
Saudi Arabia (Sunni)
Israel
Turkey (Sunni)
Egypt
Pakistan

Team Russia :
Iran (Shia)
Syria (Assad mostly)

Warzone/torn :
Irak (going toward team Russia)
Afghanistan
Lebanon

Now of course this is not as clear, as Saudi Arabia went a bit too far in promoting radical Wahabism, which developped in the ugly sunni extremism we see today. This growing extremism has put USA support at odds with its traditional allies in the region (especially seeing rise of Talibans/Al Qaeda/Daesh), but this is more or less the game field at the moment. This has little changed in decades and lead us to the impossible situation we are in today.

Now is coming Trump, and for now I don’t know if he’s an idiot or a genius, but even if he’s an idiot he may be able to inadvertely move the lines in this messed up situation. By going a bit more towards Russia (apparently), USA’s policy is now totally opaque in the decade-long fight for influence in the middle east. What would it be with Iran ? Trump seems to be more willing to go against Iran, but this is not compatible with the russia strategy. And what about Israel ? Is it a draft of a complete redesign of US foreign policy, or just a guy who tend to tweet first and think after ? We already see some strange moves like Turkey starting to ‘befriend’ Russia in the fight against Sunni rebels in Syria.

All in all, we are in for some very interesting (but extremely dangerous) times ahead !

I’m really eager to hear everybody’s thoughts on this.
 
Greetings everybody !

Looking from our old europe the development of US politics in the last few months (and thanks for the show, it is spectacular !), I start to get really puzzled concerning your future president’s foreign policy strategy,and would really like to have your opinion about this (especially towards those who voted for Trump).

For the last 40-50 years, the complete middle-east mess we’re in, and that is spreading globally, is more or less resulting of the power struggle of East (USSR, then Russia) Vs West (USA) for access of oil. This struggle for influence resulted (or is reinforced by, depending the point of view) in some kind of religious clash between sunni islam and shia Islam, giving a geopolitical map a bit like this (oversimplified I know :) ) :

Team USA :
Saudi Arabia (Sunni)
Israel
Turkey (Sunni)
Egypt
Pakistan

Team Russia :
Iran (Shia)
Syria (Assad mostly)

Warzone/torn :
Irak (going toward team Russia)
Afghanistan
Lebanon

Now of course this is not as clear, as Saudi Arabia went a bit too far in promoting radical Wahabism, which developped in the ugly sunni extremism we see today. This growing extremism has put USA support at odds with its traditional allies in the region (especially seeing rise of Talibans/Al Qaeda/Daesh), but this is more or less the game field at the moment. This has little changed in decades and lead us to the impossible situation we are in today.

Now is coming Trump, and for now I don’t know if he’s an idiot or a genius, but even if he’s an idiot he may be able to inadvertely move the lines in this messed up situation. By going a bit more towards Russia (apparently), USA’s policy is now totally opaque in the decade-long fight for influence in the middle east. What would it be with Iran ? Trump seems to be more willing to go against Iran, but this is not compatible with the russia strategy. And what about Israel ? Is it a draft of a complete redesign of US foreign policy, or just a guy who tend to tweet first and think after ? We already see some strange moves like Turkey starting to ‘befriend’ Russia in the fight against Sunni rebels in Syria.

All in all, we are in for some very interesting (but extremely dangerous) times ahead !

I’m really eager to hear everybody’s thoughts on this.

Naw. It's their neighborhood. If the Europeans don't want to secure it, why should the Americans? The US should help, but only if the Europeans fulfil their commitments including the shortfalls.
 
A lot of your analysis is correct. You may underestimate Saudi Arabia's complicity in instability in the MidEast. If they can cause instability in other major oil producing Nations, they can reap a competitive advantage, and they do. That is why they fund and encourage ISIS. The USA MIC (Military Industrial Corporate Complex) profits handsomely from these same instabilities, ergo don't want to actually encourage stability. Turkey was a USA/NATO lapdog for a while, but recent events have caused Erdogan to realize that it might profit more handsomely long term by allying with Russia, both economically and militarily. To do this, Turkey must stab ISIS in the back and that will leave a mark. The apparent support of the CIA for Gulen in the alleged coup attempt in Turkey did not help the US. The current success of Afghanistan as the World's major supplier of opium after 15 years of USA occupation is certainly worthy of discussion and analysis. Iran has concluded deals with Russia and China and allied with the One Road philosophy and will benefit economically and politically. The USA will continue covert sabotage programs in Syria, Libya, Iran, etc. and keep financing and arming Israel to be a disruptive influence in the region. Trump is a wild card, but even if he rekindles favorable relations with Russia, the recent alliances with China and Iran and Russia will not change. USA and EU toady sanctions against Russia have strengthened the Russian economic infrastructure within Russia. The moves by China, Russia, India and others to create alternatives to SWIFT, CHIPS, IMF, World Bank as well as global satellite communications will continue and are the real reasons for USA politicians demonizing Russia. If the "debt" economy is replaced by a gold standard economy, the USA will be broke. There exist those mentalities that look at the World of 7.4 billion people and think a good nuclear war would cull some of the excess. Thoughts!
 
Greetings everybody !

Looking from our old europe the development of US politics in the last few months (and thanks for the show, it is spectacular !), I start to get really puzzled concerning your future president’s foreign policy strategy,and would really like to have your opinion about this (especially towards those who voted for Trump).

For the last 40-50 years, the complete middle-east mess we’re in, and that is spreading globally, is more or less resulting of the power struggle of East (USSR, then Russia) Vs West (USA) for access of oil. This struggle for influence resulted (or is reinforced by, depending the point of view) in some kind of religious clash between sunni islam and shia Islam, giving a geopolitical map a bit like this (oversimplified I know :) ) :

Team USA :
Saudi Arabia (Sunni)
Israel
Turkey (Sunni)
Egypt
Pakistan

Team Russia :
Iran (Shia)
Syria (Assad mostly)

Warzone/torn :
Irak (going toward team Russia)
Afghanistan
Lebanon

Now of course this is not as clear, as Saudi Arabia went a bit too far in promoting radical Wahabism, which developped in the ugly sunni extremism we see today. This growing extremism has put USA support at odds with its traditional allies in the region (especially seeing rise of Talibans/Al Qaeda/Daesh), but this is more or less the game field at the moment. This has little changed in decades and lead us to the impossible situation we are in today.

Now is coming Trump, and for now I don’t know if he’s an idiot or a genius, but even if he’s an idiot he may be able to inadvertely move the lines in this messed up situation. By going a bit more towards Russia (apparently), USA’s policy is now totally opaque in the decade-long fight for influence in the middle east. What would it be with Iran ? Trump seems to be more willing to go against Iran, but this is not compatible with the russia strategy. And what about Israel ? Is it a draft of a complete redesign of US foreign policy, or just a guy who tend to tweet first and think after ? We already see some strange moves like Turkey starting to ‘befriend’ Russia in the fight against Sunni rebels in Syria.

All in all, we are in for some very interesting (but extremely dangerous) times ahead !

I’m really eager to hear everybody’s thoughts on this.

no one can predict our great future under our president trump. very excited. the wife n i named a tomato plant after him.
 
A lot of your analysis is correct. You may underestimate Saudi Arabia's complicity in instability in the MidEast. If they can cause instability in other major oil producing Nations, they can reap a competitive advantage, and they do. That is why they fund and encourage ISIS. The USA MIC (Military Industrial Corporate Complex) profits handsomely from these same instabilities, ergo don't want to actually encourage stability. Turkey was a USA/NATO lapdog for a while, but recent events have caused Erdogan to realize that it might profit more handsomely long term by allying with Russia, both economically and militarily. To do this, Turkey must stab ISIS in the back and that will leave a mark. The apparent support of the CIA for Gulen in the alleged coup attempt in Turkey did not help the US. The current success of Afghanistan as the World's major supplier of opium after 15 years of USA occupation is certainly worthy of discussion and analysis. Iran has concluded deals with Russia and China and allied with the One Road philosophy and will benefit economically and politically. The USA will continue covert sabotage programs in Syria, Libya, Iran, etc. and keep financing and arming Israel to be a disruptive influence in the region. Trump is a wild card, but even if he rekindles favorable relations with Russia, the recent alliances with China and Iran and Russia will not change. USA and EU toady sanctions against Russia have strengthened the Russian economic infrastructure within Russia. The moves by China, Russia, India and others to create alternatives to SWIFT, CHIPS, IMF, World Bank as well as global satellite communications will continue and are the real reasons for USA politicians demonizing Russia. If the "debt" economy is replaced by a gold standard economy, the USA will be broke. There exist those mentalities that look at the World of 7.4 billion people and think a good nuclear war would cull some of the excess. Thoughts!

Thanks for the additional info! In all these changing strategies, I think that Trump's presidency is a real opportunity for us european to unite and gain more weight on the international geopolitical level. We don't like him too much here, and depending on the general direction of US going toward more protectionism/isolationism, we will have a card to play if we can get our sh** together. Starting by working on a real european defense, then moving on from that (economically and politically) to increase our influence on the world stage. I'm not very optimistic though ;). Funny thing is that eastern Europe were much more pro-US than western (as a protection against Russia), but now that Trump is having a bromance with Putin, it can be a rallying cry for us!
 
Moderator's Warning:
This belonged in the Middle East forum, just by virtue of the title.

So now it is.

Moderation may occur on posts made before this warning.
 
Thanks for the additional info! In all these changing strategies, I think that Trump's presidency is a real opportunity for us european to unite and gain more weight on the international geopolitical level. We don't like him too much here, and depending on the general direction of US going toward more protectionism/isolationism, we will have a card to play if we can get our sh** together. Starting by working on a real european defense, then moving on from that (economically and politically) to increase our influence on the world stage. I'm not very optimistic though ;). Funny thing is that eastern Europe were much more pro-US than western (as a protection against Russia), but now that Trump is having a bromance with Putin, it can be a rallying cry for us!

I think the rumors of bromance are greatly exaggerated.
 
no one can predict our great future under our president trump. very excited. the wife n i named a tomato plant after him.

Great idea. I will follow your lead and name one of my loquat trees after him. The trees live for 30 years or longer.

A lot of your analysis is correct. You may underestimate Saudi Arabia's complicity in instability in the MidEast. If they can cause instability in other major oil producing Nations, they can reap a competitive advantage, and they do. That is why they fund and encourage ISIS. The USA MIC (Military Industrial Corporate Complex) profits handsomely from these same instabilities, ergo don't want to actually encourage stability. Turkey was a USA/NATO lapdog for a while, but recent events have caused Erdogan to realize that it might profit more handsomely long term by allying with Russia, both economically and militarily. To do this, Turkey must stab ISIS in the back and that will leave a mark. The apparent support of the CIA for Gulen in the alleged coup attempt in Turkey did not help the US. The current success of Afghanistan as the World's major supplier of opium after 15 years of USA occupation is certainly worthy of discussion and analysis. Iran has concluded deals with Russia and China and allied with the One Road philosophy and will benefit economically and politically. The USA will continue covert sabotage programs in Syria, Libya, Iran, etc. and keep financing and arming Israel to be a disruptive influence in the region. Trump is a wild card, but even if he rekindles favorable relations with Russia, the recent alliances with China and Iran and Russia will not change. USA and EU toady sanctions against Russia have strengthened the Russian economic infrastructure within Russia. The moves by China, Russia, India and others to create alternatives to SWIFT, CHIPS, IMF, World Bank as well as global satellite communications will continue and are the real reasons for USA politicians demonizing Russia. If the "debt" economy is replaced by a gold standard economy, the USA will be broke. There exist those mentalities that look at the World of 7.4 billion people and think a good nuclear war would cull some of the excess. Thoughts!

Good points.

I think many people forget that we are engaged in a continual multi-billion dollar space program with Russia, sharing technology, ideology, etc.
 
Team USA :
Saudi Arabia (Sunni)
Israel
Turkey (Sunni)
Egypt
Pakistan

Team Russia :
Iran (Shia)
Syria (Assad mostly)

Warzone/torn :
Irak (going toward team Russia)
Afghanistan
Lebanon

I'd say that we should begin with Saudi. They are playing both sides. The official government does deals with the official USA/West. The princes do their deals with Assad, Saddam, Kohmeni, hell Goldie Mier. There is no accountability with the Saudis. They hire Pakistanis and Indians like America does illegal Mexicans. Treat them the same too. Saudi is the power broker and should not be counted on a team.

Turkey. Gulen, I feel, was the secular, Erdogan, running out the religion, Gulen; I think to gain EU acceptance. I don't think the EU will accept Turkey. If the US plays fast and loose with Israel, combined with the rise in right wing extreme groups throughout Europe, Turks could, I dunno, get religious, side with others... I think there is a lot on the line for Turkey. They are not stable. They are looking for stability, but what happens if Trump decides to extradite Gulen, or moves the embassy to Jerusalem? America is an extreme uncertainty. The EU is uncertain. Religious rule in the ME is uncertain. Democracy... etc. etc. etc. All uncertain right now.

Afghanistan. It depends on what Russia wants for their lithium futures and empire plans. Since our work there, our cell phones have gotten smaller and we now have battery powered cars. If Russia wants to feed China, or other tech sectors on their side, Afghanistan needs to be secured. Further, a weakening in NATO and expansion by Russia would make Afghanistan a strategic location. So two factors there.

Israel is on the precipice of something great, be it folly or success. We have an idiot in charge here in the US. He will hire and fire constantly. He will be in court constantly. He will lie constantly. He will twit constantly. He will focus on tax policy and border issues mostly. He will be relatively dormant in Foreign Policy. This will be handled by others, but in the same manner Spicer was dealt with. Despite reason or fact the diplomats will be told exactly what to do. It amounts to yes men doing an idiots will. We have seen this in your history. What happens to our Congo doesn't matter either. The fulfillment of the company will be our guiding principle. Israel will be able to use this to their own advantage. To Trump, Israel is an ideal, not a nation. It is his voting demographic, not an empire. He will not deal in reality. Israel will get all the funding and support it wants. What is decides to want is to be our destiny for at least four years.

I dunno, just a couple thoughts.
 
Greetings everybody !

Looking from our old europe the development of US politics in the last few months (and thanks for the show, it is spectacular !), I start to get really puzzled concerning your future president’s foreign policy strategy,and would really like to have your opinion about this (especially towards those who voted for Trump).

For the last 40-50 years, the complete middle-east mess we’re in, and that is spreading globally, is more or less resulting of the power struggle of East (USSR, then Russia) Vs West (USA) for access of oil. This struggle for influence resulted (or is reinforced by, depending the point of view) in some kind of religious clash between sunni islam and shia Islam, giving a geopolitical map a bit like this (oversimplified I know :) ) :

Team USA :
Saudi Arabia (Sunni)
Israel
Turkey (Sunni)
Egypt
Pakistan

Team Russia :
Iran (Shia)
Syria (Assad mostly)

Warzone/torn :
Irak (going toward team Russia)
Afghanistan
Lebanon

Now of course this is not as clear, as Saudi Arabia went a bit too far in promoting radical Wahabism, which developped in the ugly sunni extremism we see today. This growing extremism has put USA support at odds with its traditional allies in the region (especially seeing rise of Talibans/Al Qaeda/Daesh), but this is more or less the game field at the moment. This has little changed in decades and lead us to the impossible situation we are in today.

Now is coming Trump, and for now I don’t know if he’s an idiot or a genius, but even if he’s an idiot he may be able to inadvertely move the lines in this messed up situation. By going a bit more towards Russia (apparently), USA’s policy is now totally opaque in the decade-long fight for influence in the middle east. What would it be with Iran ? Trump seems to be more willing to go against Iran, but this is not compatible with the russia strategy. And what about Israel ? Is it a draft of a complete redesign of US foreign policy, or just a guy who tend to tweet first and think after ? We already see some strange moves like Turkey starting to ‘befriend’ Russia in the fight against Sunni rebels in Syria.

All in all, we are in for some very interesting (but extremely dangerous) times ahead !

I’m really eager to hear everybody’s thoughts on this.

Trump is not the head of CIA ,so nothing will change.Isıs was created and supported to found Great Kurdistan ,a trojan horse that will serve for the western interests
 
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I've given a great deal of thought to US foreign policy in the middle east. And I can't see how anything we try will work, to much bad blood at this point. But, it wouldn't be right to just leave a huge mess over there either.

The biggest problem I see, is people have no security. Warlords and Extremists can swoop in at anytime and steal their children and take their property. In other words, the common people have no way of protecting themselves. We should start providing guns to everyone in the middle east for personal protection. In Afghanistan 5 out of 100 people have a gun. Iraq, 34 out of a 100. Iran, 7 out of 100. In the United States its 101 out of 100 people.

Guns in the United States ? Firearms, gun law and gun control

I'm not joking either, we take the 2nd Amendment for granted, but its ensured common people have a means of preventing groups like ISIS to roll into town and force your children to fight for them, while they steal all your good livestock.

Give everyone a gun and check back in a few decades.
 
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