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Modern Quarterbacks

MrWonka

MrWonka

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I'm getting sick and tired of the pervasive idea in the NFL that finding a good quarterback is ridiculously difficult.I submit to you that there are approximatly 14 quarterbacks in the NFL today that are either locks for the Hall of Fame, or bubble guys that have about a 50/50 shot of making it. That's almost half the league. 20 years ago there were maybe seven guys like that in the league.

Back in 1997 there were basically 7 guys that you looked at and said, these guys are probably hall of famers. Dan Marino, John Elway, Brett Favre, Troy Aikmen, Steve Young, Jim Kelly, and I would argue that at the time a lot of people would have said Drew Bledsoe. Obviously that didn't work out, but at the time he looked like he was in the prime of a hall of fame career. Today there is way more. Let's count them.

Start with the big four.
1. Tom Brady
2. Aaron Rodgers
3. Drew Brees
4. Ben Roethlisberger.

All four of these guys are locks. They could retire tomorrow, and they'd all be first ballot HOFers.

Then let's look at guys with a super bowl win....

5. Eli Manning: Eli definately has a hall of fame resume. Two super bowls, and two Superbowl MVPs. The only QB to beat Tom Brady in a super bowl, and he did it twice. Obviously is franchise all-time leader, and he is currently in the top ten all time for passing.

6. Joe Flacco: Flacco might have the toughest case here. He's a super bowl winner, and he's probably going to retire as his franchises greatest QB. Good chance he'll crack the top ten in passing all time. Another super bowl would help.

7. Russel Wilson: Already got a super bowl. Still young enough to get another. He seems to keep getting better. He's basically carrying the Seahawks now that their running game and defense is falling apart. Put up MVP type numbers even though he won't win because they didn't make the playoffs.

Next let's look at guys with an MVP.....
8. Cam Newton: It will be interesting to see how his body holds up with all the punishment he takes running the football, but I would argue he is at least on track as of right now to have a hall of fame career. Already has an MVP, already made it to one super bowl. Has already blown away all the rushing statistics for a QB.

9. Andrew Luck: Granted he's got some serious shoulder problems that he has to come back from, but I think he will, and if he does he's got the potential to be one of the greatest ever. Already has one MVP. If they put a team around him he should win a super bowl eventually.

10. Matt Ryan: Fresh off a super bowl appearance and an MVP season. He and Julio Jones will go down as one of the greatest QB/WR tandems of all time. I see no reason why he won't continue to rack up big numbers for years to come. If he can win the big one he's a lock, might be hard to keep him out even if he doesn't.

Okay so that's 10 right there. Might not all make it, but I like their chances. Oh, but wait. There's more.....

11. Phillip Rivers: Rivers is shattering all of Dan Fouts old numbers with the Chargers. Obviously hasn't had the postseason success to garner a super bowl or an MVP, but he's going to finish his career as a top 5 passer all time. Might have to put him in even without some of the other accolades. You can't realistically say the Chargers not winning more is Rivers fault.

12. Matthew Stafford: He's the highest paid QB in the league for a reason. Holds the record for most passing yards in history through his first 100 games. No reason to think he won't keep going, and if he does he has a shot at Peyton Manning numbers. Obviously the Lions suck, and are terrible at putting good players around him.

Alright now let's look at a couple young guys who admitttedly got aways to go.

13. Derek Carr: Probably would have been the MVP last year if he didn't break his leg. Looking like a perenial pro bowler that's going to be putting up big numbers for years to go if his receivers can stop getting in fights on the field. Long way to go, but I like his career track and wouldn't be shocked at all if he made the hall some day.

14. Carson Wentz: Probably would have been the MVP this year if he didn't tear his ACL, and may even have been a super bowl favorite. Obviously a long career ahead of him, but I like his career track already. He's got a real shot at the hall.

That's 14 guys, and I'm still not even counting guys like Dak Prescott, Jared Goff, or Deshan Watson. Way to early to tell with them, but who knows I might have to include them on the list next year. And these are just the guys with a shot at the HOF. There's a ton of other middling guys out there, that you can probably win with if you put a team around them.
 
I don't think Eli deserves hall of flame, or Joe Flacco. And I'm a Giants fan. Eli can't carry the team on his back like his brother did, like Brady, Rodgers, Wilson, the really greats. He had a solid, above average career (Eli). He put up decent career numbers, but I don't see it as HOF worthy. Maybe the Giants own Hall of Fame, but not the HOF.

It's also tough to compare to QBs of the past to today, much more passing going on, and QBs and WR protected. It used to be legal to take someone's head off going to catch the ball over the middle
 
MrWonka said:
I'm getting sick and tired of the pervasive idea in the NFL that finding a good quarterback is ridiculously difficult.I submit to you that there are approximatly 14 quarterbacks in the NFL today that are either locks for the Hall of Fame, or bubble guys that have about a 50/50 shot of making it. That's almost half the league. 20 years ago there were maybe seven guys like that in the league.

Back in 1997 there were basically 7 guys that you looked at and said, these guys are probably hall of famers. Dan Marino, John Elway, Brett Favre, Troy Aikmen, Steve Young, Jim Kelly, and I would argue that at the time a lot of people would have said Drew Bledsoe. Obviously that didn't work out, but at the time he looked like he was in the prime of a hall of fame career. Today there is way more. Let's count them.

Start with the big four.
1. Tom Brady
2. Aaron Rodgers
3. Drew Brees
4. Ben Roethlisberger.

All four of these guys are locks. They could retire tomorrow, and they'd all be first ballot HOFers.

Then let's look at guys with a super bowl win....

5. Eli Manning: Eli definately has a hall of fame resume. Two super bowls, and two Superbowl MVPs. The only QB to beat Tom Brady in a super bowl, and he did it twice. Obviously is franchise all-time leader, and he is currently in the top ten all time for passing.

6. Joe Flacco: Flacco might have the toughest case here. He's a super bowl winner, and he's probably going to retire as his franchises greatest QB. Good chance he'll crack the top ten in passing all time. Another super bowl would help.

7. Russel Wilson: Already got a super bowl. Still young enough to get another. He seems to keep getting better. He's basically carrying the Seahawks now that their running game and defense is falling apart. Put up MVP type numbers even though he won't win because they didn't make the playoffs.

Next let's look at guys with an MVP.....
8. Cam Newton: It will be interesting to see how his body holds up with all the punishment he takes running the football, but I would argue he is at least on track as of right now to have a hall of fame career. Already has an MVP, already made it to one super bowl. Has already blown away all the rushing statistics for a QB.

9. Andrew Luck: Granted he's got some serious shoulder problems that he has to come back from, but I think he will, and if he does he's got the potential to be one of the greatest ever. Already has one MVP. If they put a team around him he should win a super bowl eventually.

10. Matt Ryan: Fresh off a super bowl appearance and an MVP season. He and Julio Jones will go down as one of the greatest QB/WR tandems of all time. I see no reason why he won't continue to rack up big numbers for years to come. If he can win the big one he's a lock, might be hard to keep him out even if he doesn't.

Okay so that's 10 right there. Might not all make it, but I like their chances. Oh, but wait. There's more.....

11. Phillip Rivers: Rivers is shattering all of Dan Fouts old numbers with the Chargers. Obviously hasn't had the postseason success to garner a super bowl or an MVP, but he's going to finish his career as a top 5 passer all time. Might have to put him in even without some of the other accolades. You can't realistically say the Chargers not winning more is Rivers fault.

12. Matthew Stafford: He's the highest paid QB in the league for a reason. Holds the record for most passing yards in history through his first 100 games. No reason to think he won't keep going, and if he does he has a shot at Peyton Manning numbers. Obviously the Lions suck, and are terrible at putting good players around him.

Alright now let's look at a couple young guys who admitttedly got aways to go.

13. Derek Carr: Probably would have been the MVP last year if he didn't break his leg. Looking like a perenial pro bowler that's going to be putting up big numbers for years to go if his receivers can stop getting in fights on the field. Long way to go, but I like his career track and wouldn't be shocked at all if he made the hall some day.

14. Carson Wentz: Probably would have been the MVP this year if he didn't tear his ACL, and may even have been a super bowl favorite. Obviously a long career ahead of him, but I like his career track already. He's got a real shot at the hall.

That's 14 guys, and I'm still not even counting guys like Dak Prescott, Jared Goff, or Deshan Watson. Way to early to tell with them, but who knows I might have to include them on the list next year. And these are just the guys with a shot at the HOF. There's a ton of other middling guys out there, that you can probably win with if you put a team around them.
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Newton and Luck have a very long way to go before they are in the HOF discussion and Carr and Wentz even further. Carr is going to have to get a lot better to even be on track.
 
I think it's harder to find a good QB but a good QB has it easier than ever.

Football players have a higher football IQ and higher levels of athleticism on average. I know that Darrell Green, Bo Jackson etc etc are all great examples of players that would be very impressive athletes even now, but they are the exceptions. This gives QBs a lot more to deal with. Defenses are more complicated. Passing lanes are tighter with the speed of modern players. A blown block by your o-line results in a faster LB or DE getting to you quicker than in the days of yore. All combine to make it very difficult to find a QB that can actually play in the modern NFL.

I think the difficulty makes it so that you have a very stark dividing line between your good QBs and the rest.

On the other hand...with the rules and how those rules are enforced, the game is very passing centric. A QB that is good in this league can put up very impressive numbers and have a larger impact on his team than ever before. Back in the day, the pass happy, QB centric teams were anomalies. A QB couldn't carry a team to the Super Bowl. Super Bowl teams were VERY balanced. The SB champion would have a top Defense and a top Offense that would typically star a good/great QB and a good/great RB with HOF WR's.

Now, a good QB like Brady can carry a team like the Pats which are pretty unremarkable when it comes to their roster, to the Super Bowl and actually win it.

So TLDR: The state of the game punishes average QBs like never before but for those that can do well in the game, the passing rules create a perfect storm to allow them to look "great"
 
Eli's on the bubble.

Luck would be a NFL icon on the right team. The Colt's ownership sold the farm just as Luck came into the league and the kid still made a name for himself.

I would love to see Brady retire and the Pat's pick up a Luck or Wilson.

Newtown is a narcissistic asshole & head case.

3se9at.jpg
 
Crovax said:
Newton and Luck have a very long way to go before they are in the HOF discussion and Carr and Wentz even further. Carr is going to have to get a lot better to even be on track.
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Even in a somewhat off year with some injuries this year Carr was a Pro-bowler. These guys all do have a way to go, but realistically what's stopping them? If you take the average seasons these guys have had through the first few years in the league, and project them out over a 14 year career they should all end up with HOF numbers. Injuries could derail them for certain, but in the modern NFL major injuries to quarterbacks aren't too difficult to avoid. Sure they've each had individual seasons lost dude to injuries, but with the exception of maybe Cam, I'm not sure you could expect these injuries to radically derail their careers.
 
RetiredUSN said:
Eli's on the bubble.
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Eli Manning currently has the 8th most passing TD in NFL history. Next year he will pass Fran Tarkenton for 7th alone, and depending on whether him or Phillip Rivers retires first he could finish as high as 5th when he's all done. You're telling me a mulitiple super bowl winner, who beat Brady both times, and won the Super Bowl MVP both times, with the third longest consecutive start streak in nfl history, is going to potentially pass Dan Marino in all time TDs and Yards, and he's on the bubble?

RetiredUSN said:
Newtown is a narcissistic asshole & head case.
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So is the President of the United States
 
iliveonramen said:
I think it's harder to find a good QB but a good QB has it easier than ever.

Football players have a higher football IQ and higher levels of athleticism on average. I know that Darrell Green, Bo Jackson etc etc are all great examples of players that would be very impressive athletes even now, but they are the exceptions. This gives QBs a lot more to deal with. Defenses are more complicated. Passing lanes are tighter with the speed of modern players. A blown block by your o-line results in a faster LB or DE getting to you quicker than in the days of yore. All combine to make it very difficult to find a QB that can actually play in the modern NFL.

I think the difficulty makes it so that you have a very stark dividing line between your good QBs and the rest.

On the other hand...with the rules and how those rules are enforced, the game is very passing centric. A QB that is good in this league can put up very impressive numbers and have a larger impact on his team than ever before. Back in the day, the pass happy, QB centric teams were anomalies. A QB couldn't carry a team to the Super Bowl. Super Bowl teams were VERY balanced. The SB champion would have a top Defense and a top Offense that would typically star a good/great QB and a good/great RB with HOF WR's.

Now, a good QB like Brady can carry a team like the Pats which are pretty unremarkable when it comes to their roster, to the Super Bowl and actually win it.

So TLDR: The state of the game punishes average QBs like never before but for those that can do well in the game, the passing rules create a perfect storm to allow them to look "great"
Click to expand...

Yeah, see I think you have that absolutely backwards. Just look at who the top four teams this year. Nick Foles(super bowl winner and super bowl mvp) was a back up to start the season. So was Case Keenum the guy he beat in the NFC championship game. Blake Bortles lost to Brady in the AFC championship, but barely.

The modern rules make it easier on QBs which makes it easier for a less than phenominal guy to be successful enough to get you buy. Just don't turn the ball over. Pick up some first downs, and keep the ball moving is all you really need to do. Combine that with the fact that more High School and College teams are turning more and more towards the passing game. These guys are throwing the ball a lot more early on in their careers. Even video games can help young kids learn the basics of reading pass coverages.
 
Sampson Simpson said:
I don't think Eli deserves hall of flame, or Joe Flacco. And I'm a Giants fan. Eli can't carry the team on his back like his brother did, like Brady, Rodgers, Wilson, the really greats. He had a solid, above average career (Eli). He put up decent career numbers, but I don't see it as HOF worthy. Maybe the Giants own Hall of Fame, but not the HOF.

It's also tough to compare to QBs of the past to today, much more passing going on, and QBs and WR protected. It used to be legal to take someone's head off going to catch the ball over the middle
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You could certainly argue that standards need to improve due to how much easier it is to find a good QB, but even that makes my point for me. You apparently don't think much of of Eli Manning, but the reality is he won two super bowls. He beat Brady in both of them, and won the Super Bowl MVP in both. If he plays a couple more season he could easily pass Dan Marino for 5th all time in passing TDs. He's already got more passing yards than both Rivers and Roethlisberger who are also likely in, and will pass Marino next year. That's a hall of fame resume if I ever heard of one. Granted no full season MVPS, QBR is only 41st all time. He should be challenging favre and his brother for a consectutive start streak if his coach wasn't an idiot this year.

That is a hall of fame resume if I've ever seen one.
 
Alright, just for the heck of it let's keep going and look at the rest of the league. After including Prescott, Goff, and Watson we're up to 17 teams that all have a QB for next year that they're pretty happy with. Who's left..?

18. Kirk Cousins: Who knows where he'll land, but should get big money. Definitely, a legit starter that you can give you a good chance to win.
19. Alex Smith: The Redskins were willing to let Cousins go and prefer Smith. Had a great year this year, and the Chiefs still sold him down the river. Guy has taken teams to conference championships. Probably would have gotten to the super bowl if he didn't get benched for Kapernick with the 49ers.
20. Ryan Tannehill: Dolphins obviously thought enough of him to give him a decent long-term deal. Got them to the playoffs last year. He's not great, but you could do a lot worse.
21. Andy Dalton: Guy made the playoffs his first 4 seasons in the league and was considered an MVP candidate just a couple years ago before all his weapons disappeared.
22. Jimmy Garoppolo: Guy is 10-0 so far in his career including an impressive run with the 49ers this year. Lot of reason to be excited if you're a 9ers fan.
23. Marcus Mariota: Still hasn't quite met expectations, but did enough to win a playoff game in his second full season as a starter. Can't give up on him yet.
24. Jameis Winston: Had a shoulder injury this year that slowed him down, but looked great the year before. No reason to give up on him yet if you're Tampa.
25. Blake Bortles: Everybody hates him, but he was one quarter away from beating Tom Brady in Foxboro and going to the Super Bowl. Can't really argue he's the reason the Jags lost that game. Have to give him another season.
26. Case Keenum: I don't know how the Vikings can let him go after what he did this year. Almost have to franchise him, and see if he can duplicate things.
27. Nick Foles: What can you say here? Guy just won the Super Bowl MVP and beat Tom Brady. Had a really good season a few years ago. Sucked with the Rams, but he's almost got to start somewhere next year.
28. Sam Bradford: Yeah, he's injury prone, but the guy broke Drew Brees completion % record last year when healthy. Looked like the second incarnation of Kurt Warner in the first game of this season. He's got to get a starting gig next year I would think.
29. Teddy Bridgewater: Took the Vikings to a playoff game two years ago, and should have beat the Seahawks if his kicker didn't **** it up. The injury obviously hurt his stock, but he's still young enough someone should give him another shot.
30. Tyrod Taylor: Everyone in Buffalo hates the guy for some reason, but he just got the Bills to the playoffs for the first time in 17 years, and I don't think you can blame the loss on him. When you actually look at his numbers they're pretty solid. Rarely turns the ball over. Makes a lot of great plays with his legs.
31. A.J. McCarron: Filled in really well for the Bengals two years ago when Dalton went down. Probably going to compete for a starting spot somewhere next year.
32. Mitch Trubiski: Guy has one year under his belt. Can't quit on him yet. Needs a Jared Goff type second year though.
33. Patrick Mahomes: The Chiefs apparently like this guy enough to sell Alex Smith down the river. Too early to tell, but you got to give him a chance.

So already we have enough QBs to go around for every team in the league to have a capable starting QB or one with real potential and reason for serious optimism. We still haven't touched Kaepernick who started a super bowl once. Deshone Kizer who really hasn't gotten a fair shake being stuck playing his rookie season with the browns. Paxton Lynch and Christian Hackenburg really haven't had opportunities yet. And oh by the way this is one of the deepest QB drafts coming in a long long time. There's like 6 qbs in this springs draft who all have a real shot of being franchise guys. I'm willing to bet at least 3-4 will pan out.

That's a lot of QBs when you realize each team can only start one at a time. We're all the way down at 29, 30, and 31 and you got guys that have come damn close to winning playoff games recently. Obviously we'd all love to have Brady or Rodgers, but realistically three out of the four conference championship QBs this year were throw away guys that nobody really wanted.
 
MrWonka said:
I'm getting sick and tired of the pervasive idea in the NFL that finding a good quarterback is ridiculously difficult.I submit to you that there are approximatly 14 quarterbacks in the NFL today that are either locks for the Hall of Fame, or bubble guys that have about a 50/50 shot of making it. That's almost half the league. 20 years ago there were maybe seven guys like that in the league.

Back in 1997 there were basically 7 guys that you looked at and said, these guys are probably hall of famers. Dan Marino, John Elway, Brett Favre, Troy Aikmen, Steve Young, Jim Kelly, and I would argue that at the time a lot of people would have said Drew Bledsoe. Obviously that didn't work out, but at the time he looked like he was in the prime of a hall of fame career. Today there is way more. Let's count them.

Start with the big four.
1. Tom Brady
2. Aaron Rodgers
3. Drew Brees
4. Ben Roethlisberger.

All four of these guys are locks. They could retire tomorrow, and they'd all be first ballot HOFers.

Then let's look at guys with a super bowl win....

5. Eli Manning: Eli definately has a hall of fame resume. Two super bowls, and two Superbowl MVPs. The only QB to beat Tom Brady in a super bowl, and he did it twice. Obviously is franchise all-time leader, and he is currently in the top ten all time for passing.

6. Joe Flacco: Flacco might have the toughest case here. He's a super bowl winner, and he's probably going to retire as his franchises greatest QB. Good chance he'll crack the top ten in passing all time. Another super bowl would help.

7. Russel Wilson: Already got a super bowl. Still young enough to get another. He seems to keep getting better. He's basically carrying the Seahawks now that their running game and defense is falling apart. Put up MVP type numbers even though he won't win because they didn't make the playoffs.

Next let's look at guys with an MVP.....
8. Cam Newton: It will be interesting to see how his body holds up with all the punishment he takes running the football, but I would argue he is at least on track as of right now to have a hall of fame career. Already has an MVP, already made it to one super bowl. Has already blown away all the rushing statistics for a QB.

9. Andrew Luck: Granted he's got some serious shoulder problems that he has to come back from, but I think he will, and if he does he's got the potential to be one of the greatest ever. Already has one MVP. If they put a team around him he should win a super bowl eventually.

10. Matt Ryan: Fresh off a super bowl appearance and an MVP season. He and Julio Jones will go down as one of the greatest QB/WR tandems of all time. I see no reason why he won't continue to rack up big numbers for years to come. If he can win the big one he's a lock, might be hard to keep him out even if he doesn't.
Click to expand...

we have adjusted from a ground & pound to an air attack football game

think of the running backs that played in the 80's and 90's....and then compare that to today

quarterbacks and receivers are the "new thing"....and will be for awhile

you have just as many receivers setting records and putting up astounding numbers as you do QB's

some already have their corner in Canton set aside....Larry Fitzgerald of the Cardinals is a prime example....easy first ballot HOF'er and may be nearly unanimous on the ballots

Barry Sanders, Emmitt Smith, Franco Harris, etc....where have all my running backs gone?

The game morphs....and defenses adjust....and the rules change to benefit one side or another....ratings love QB's....so this is their ERA....

maybe the beast comes back soon....dunno
 
MrWonka said:
Eli Manning currently has the 8th most passing TD in NFL history. Next year he will pass Fran Tarkenton for 7th alone, and depending on whether him or Phillip Rivers retires first he could finish as high as 5th when he's all done. You're telling me a mulitiple super bowl winner, who beat Brady both times, and won the Super Bowl MVP both times, with the third longest consecutive start streak in nfl history, is going to potentially pass Dan Marino in all time TDs and Yards, and he's on the bubble?


So is the President of the United States
Click to expand...

Why don't you ask the professionals...................many who say he doesn't deserve it yet?

And.....I could give a **** about you political hackery either.
 
MrWonka said:
I'm getting sick and tired of the pervasive idea in the NFL that finding a good quarterback is ridiculously difficult.I submit to you that there are approximatly 14 quarterbacks in the NFL today that are either locks for the Hall of Fame, or bubble guys that have about a 50/50 shot of making it. That's almost half the league. 20 years ago there were maybe seven guys like that in the league.

Back in 1997 there were basically 7 guys that you looked at and said, these guys are probably hall of famers. Dan Marino, John Elway, Brett Favre, Troy Aikmen, Steve Young, Jim Kelly, and I would argue that at the time a lot of people would have said Drew Bledsoe. Obviously that didn't work out, but at the time he looked like he was in the prime of a hall of fame career. Today there is way more. Let's count them.

Start with the big four.
1. Tom Brady
2. Aaron Rodgers
3. Drew Brees
4. Ben Roethlisberger.

All four of these guys are locks. They could retire tomorrow, and they'd all be first ballot HOFers.

Then let's look at guys with a super bowl win....

5. Eli Manning: Eli definately has a hall of fame resume. Two super bowls, and two Superbowl MVPs. The only QB to beat Tom Brady in a super bowl, and he did it twice. Obviously is franchise all-time leader, and he is currently in the top ten all time for passing.

6. Joe Flacco: Flacco might have the toughest case here. He's a super bowl winner, and he's probably going to retire as his franchises greatest QB. Good chance he'll crack the top ten in passing all time. Another super bowl would help.

7. Russel Wilson: Already got a super bowl. Still young enough to get another. He seems to keep getting better. He's basically carrying the Seahawks now that their running game and defense is falling apart. Put up MVP type numbers even though he won't win because they didn't make the playoffs.

Next let's look at guys with an MVP.....
8. Cam Newton: It will be interesting to see how his body holds up with all the punishment he takes running the football, but I would argue he is at least on track as of right now to have a hall of fame career. Already has an MVP, already made it to one super bowl. Has already blown away all the rushing statistics for a QB.

9. Andrew Luck: Granted he's got some serious shoulder problems that he has to come back from, but I think he will, and if he does he's got the potential to be one of the greatest ever. Already has one MVP. If they put a team around him he should win a super bowl eventually.

10. Matt Ryan: Fresh off a super bowl appearance and an MVP season. He and Julio Jones will go down as one of the greatest QB/WR tandems of all time. I see no reason why he won't continue to rack up big numbers for years to come. If he can win the big one he's a lock, might be hard to keep him out even if he doesn't.

Okay so that's 10 right there. Might not all make it, but I like their chances. Oh, but wait. There's more.....

11. Phillip Rivers: Rivers is shattering all of Dan Fouts old numbers with the Chargers. Obviously hasn't had the postseason success to garner a super bowl or an MVP, but he's going to finish his career as a top 5 passer all time. Might have to put him in even without some of the other accolades. You can't realistically say the Chargers not winning more is Rivers fault.

12. Matthew Stafford: He's the highest paid QB in the league for a reason. Holds the record for most passing yards in history through his first 100 games. No reason to think he won't keep going, and if he does he has a shot at Peyton Manning numbers. Obviously the Lions suck, and are terrible at putting good players around him.

Alright now let's look at a couple young guys who admitttedly got aways to go.

13. Derek Carr: Probably would have been the MVP last year if he didn't break his leg. Looking like a perenial pro bowler that's going to be putting up big numbers for years to go if his receivers can stop getting in fights on the field. Long way to go, but I like his career track and wouldn't be shocked at all if he made the hall some day.

14. Carson Wentz: Probably would have been the MVP this year if he didn't tear his ACL, and may even have been a super bowl favorite. Obviously a long career ahead of him, but I like his career track already. He's got a real shot at the hall.

That's 14 guys, and I'm still not even counting guys like Dak Prescott, Jared Goff, or Deshan Watson. Way to early to tell with them, but who knows I might have to include them on the list next year. And these are just the guys with a shot at the HOF. There's a ton of other middling guys out there, that you can probably win with if you put a team around them.
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I agree with the first 4. The others? Outside of Eli none of them have done anything worthy of the HOF, unless the principle becomes "well...somebody has to go in this year."
 
VanceMack said:
I agree with the first 4. The others? Outside of Eli none of them have done anything worthy of the HOF, unless the principle becomes "well...somebody has to go in this year."
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I'm thinking in terms of what they're likely to do over their careers. All of these guys are likely to have long careers and put up exceptional numbers that will make them their franchises all-time leaders, and most of them will have top ten numbers at the point which they retire.
 
RetiredUSN said:
Why don't you ask the professionals...................many who say he doesn't deserve it yet?
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Who are these so-called professionals? Pretty sure I watch as much football as anyone. When you look at QBs who are in the hall there are a number of factors that need to be considered. Winning super bowls and MVP trophies are huge. Manning has two super bowls, and two super bowl MVPs. That ties him with Roethlisberger and puts him ahead of everyone on the list but Brady. He's already got the 6th most passing yards in NFL history, will almost certainly be 6th most passing TD when he's done. Those are hall of fame stats by almost any professionals measure.
 
MrWonka said:
Even in a somewhat off year with some injuries this year Carr was a Pro-bowler. These guys all do have a way to go, but realistically what's stopping them? If you take the average seasons these guys have had through the first few years in the league, and project them out over a 14 year career they should all end up with HOF numbers. Injuries could derail them for certain, but in the modern NFL major injuries to quarterbacks aren't too difficult to avoid. Sure they've each had individual seasons lost dude to injuries, but with the exception of maybe Cam, I'm not sure you could expect these injuries to radically derail their careers.
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Pro bowls dont mean anything. Carr was ranked 22nd in ESPNs QBR and 19th in passer rating last year.

Its certainly hard to say what "HOF numbers" are in the passing era. Carr's passing yard per game is 236.9 which extrapolates to 3,790 per year (53,065 for a 14 year career) which sounds good but if you took that number and see where it would rank among QBs each year its not great

2017: 11th
2016: 18th
2015: 18th
2014: 14th

Seems like a much more mediocre number

So if Carr stay on his track and doesnt win any SBs, I dont think he has any chance of getting in the HOF
 
MrWonka said:
Who are these so-called professionals? Pretty sure I watch as much football as anyone. When you look at QBs who are in the hall there are a number of factors that need to be considered. Winning super bowls and MVP trophies are huge. Manning has two super bowls, and two super bowl MVPs. That ties him with Roethlisberger and puts him ahead of everyone on the list but Brady. He's already got the 6th most passing yards in NFL history, will almost certainly be 6th most passing TD when he's done. Those are hall of fame stats by almost any professionals measure.
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Go read your own news. If he stops right now he's borderline.
 
MrWonka said:
Who are these so-called professionals? Pretty sure I watch as much football as anyone. When you look at QBs who are in the hall there are a number of factors that need to be considered. Winning super bowls and MVP trophies are huge. Manning has two super bowls, and two super bowl MVPs. That ties him with Roethlisberger and puts him ahead of everyone on the list but Brady. He's already got the 6th most passing yards in NFL history, will almost certainly be 6th most passing TD when he's done. Those are hall of fame stats by almost any professionals measure.
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Eli is iffy for the HoF. Besides the 2 SB years he's has some pretty bad regular season years. The biggest thing Eli has going for him into the HoF is that he is durable as hell, he never gets hurt, he never misses a game. And in today's game that pretty damn impressive.

As far as the rest? Obviously 1-4 are in. And Rivers and Ryan are close..

The rest? No, not yet. Some not even close.
 
SenorXm/Sirius said:
The rest? No, not yet. Some not even close.
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But the question is what would really stop them? These are almost all pocket passing QBs who like Eli, Brady, Manning don't take a ton of big hits. With the exception of maybe Cam Newton, there's really no reason to think these guys won't have long careers with the same team, and plenty of opportunity to rack up stats that will put them right there with guys like Rivers, Eli, and Roethlisberger when they're done.

The point here is really about how hard is it to find a good quarterback in today's day and age. I'd say most of the guys on this list have at least a 50/50 chance of making Hall some day. Many still have a way to go. Some will undoubtedly not make it, but the fact that you have this many guys who are on a good track is in and of itself proof that finding a QB has gotten a lot easier. Just look at the last few drafts.


2017: Watson, Trubiski, Mahomes, Kizer: Watson looked like he could be the MVP this year. The Chiefs like Mahomes enough to ditch Alex Smith who had a great year. Kizer didn't get a fair shot at the Browns really, and it's way too early to sell Trubiski.

2016: Goff, Wentz, Prescott: All three of these guys have already taken their teams on playoff runs. We still haven't fully seen what Paxton Lynch or Christian Hackenberg can do, and Jacoby Brissett has looked okay at times.

2015: Winston, Mariota: Nothing spectacular out of these two yet, but they both look like they got franchise QB potential.

2014: Bortles, Bridgewater, Carr, Garrapalo, McCarron: Obviously Manzel was a bust, but the rest of these guys are at least serviceable, one is already a star, and there's still a couple with serious potential.

2013: Geno Smith, EJ Manual: Okay this draft sucked balls.

2012: Luck, Griffen, Tannehill, Wilson, Foles, Cousins: Lucks and MVP, Wilson and Foles are super bowl winners, Cousins is the most sought after FA this year, Tannehill already got a nice contract and made the playoffs. Griffen was amazing until he got hurt.

So for the last 6 years. With the exception of 2013, you're averaging around 3 viable starting QB per draft(oh and Case Keenum was undrafted by the way). Combine that with the fact that QBs can usually play a lot longer than most positions. If this keeps up we're going to have a plethora of talent going forward. Just look at the free agents from this year. Cousins, Keenum, Bradford, McCarron, Bridgewater, Garrapalo, Tyrod Taylor..... Alex Smith was already moved, and Foles likely will be. You got 4 more QBs projected to be drafted in the top 15 and that doesn't even include Lamar Jackson.
 
Crovax said:
Pro bowls dont mean anything. Carr was ranked 22nd in ESPNs QBR and 19th in passer rating last year.

So if Carr stay on his track and doesn't win any SBs, I don't think he has any chance of getting in the HOF
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Carr had a down year this year due to injuries. In his previous two years, he's averaging 3950 and 30 TDS. Last year he had those numbers in only 15 games and was the favorite for the MVP when he got hurt. He's obviously got to stay healthy, but there's no reason to think he wont bounce back.
 
MrWonka said:
I'm getting sick and tired of the pervasive idea in the NFL that finding a good quarterback is ridiculously difficult.I submit to you that there are approximatly 14 quarterbacks in the NFL today that are either locks for the Hall of Fame, or bubble guys that have about a 50/50 shot of making it. That's almost half the league. 20 years ago there were maybe seven guys like that in the league.

Back in 1997 there were basically 7 guys that you looked at and said, these guys are probably hall of famers. Dan Marino, John Elway, Brett Favre, Troy Aikmen, Steve Young, Jim Kelly, and I would argue that at the time a lot of people would have said Drew Bledsoe. Obviously that didn't work out, but at the time he looked like he was in the prime of a hall of fame career. Today there is way more. Let's count them.

Start with the big four.
1. Tom Brady
2. Aaron Rodgers
3. Drew Brees
4. Ben Roethlisberger.

All four of these guys are locks. They could retire tomorrow, and they'd all be first ballot HOFers.

Then let's look at guys with a super bowl win....

5. Eli Manning: Eli definately has a hall of fame resume. Two super bowls, and two Superbowl MVPs. The only QB to beat Tom Brady in a super bowl, and he did it twice. Obviously is franchise all-time leader, and he is currently in the top ten all time for passing.

6. Joe Flacco: Flacco might have the toughest case here. He's a super bowl winner, and he's probably going to retire as his franchises greatest QB. Good chance he'll crack the top ten in passing all time. Another super bowl would help.

7. Russel Wilson: Already got a super bowl. Still young enough to get another. He seems to keep getting better. He's basically carrying the Seahawks now that their running game and defense is falling apart. Put up MVP type numbers even though he won't win because they didn't make the playoffs.

Next let's look at guys with an MVP.....
8. Cam Newton: It will be interesting to see how his body holds up with all the punishment he takes running the football, but I would argue he is at least on track as of right now to have a hall of fame career. Already has an MVP, already made it to one super bowl. Has already blown away all the rushing statistics for a QB.

9. Andrew Luck: Granted he's got some serious shoulder problems that he has to come back from, but I think he will, and if he does he's got the potential to be one of the greatest ever. Already has one MVP. If they put a team around him he should win a super bowl eventually.

10. Matt Ryan: Fresh off a super bowl appearance and an MVP season. He and Julio Jones will go down as one of the greatest QB/WR tandems of all time. I see no reason why he won't continue to rack up big numbers for years to come. If he can win the big one he's a lock, might be hard to keep him out even if he doesn't.

Okay so that's 10 right there. Might not all make it, but I like their chances. Oh, but wait. There's more.....

11. Phillip Rivers: Rivers is shattering all of Dan Fouts old numbers with the Chargers. Obviously hasn't had the postseason success to garner a super bowl or an MVP, but he's going to finish his career as a top 5 passer all time. Might have to put him in even without some of the other accolades. You can't realistically say the Chargers not winning more is Rivers fault.

12. Matthew Stafford: He's the highest paid QB in the league for a reason. Holds the record for most passing yards in history through his first 100 games. No reason to think he won't keep going, and if he does he has a shot at Peyton Manning numbers. Obviously the Lions suck, and are terrible at putting good players around him.

Alright now let's look at a couple young guys who admitttedly got aways to go.

13. Derek Carr: Probably would have been the MVP last year if he didn't break his leg. Looking like a perenial pro bowler that's going to be putting up big numbers for years to go if his receivers can stop getting in fights on the field. Long way to go, but I like his career track and wouldn't be shocked at all if he made the hall some day.

14. Carson Wentz: Probably would have been the MVP this year if he didn't tear his ACL, and may even have been a super bowl favorite. Obviously a long career ahead of him, but I like his career track already. He's got a real shot at the hall.

That's 14 guys, and I'm still not even counting guys like Dak Prescott, Jared Goff, or Deshan Watson. Way to early to tell with them, but who knows I might have to include them on the list next year. And these are just the guys with a shot at the HOF. There's a ton of other middling guys out there, that you can probably win with if you put a team around them.
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Personally, I believe the QB thing is overrated. Even Tom Brady would be an unheard of sixth round bust if he was drafted by the Lions or Browns.
 
MrWonka said:
Carr had a down year this year due to injuries. In his previous two years, he's averaging 3950 and 30 TDS. Last year he had those numbers in only 15 games and was the favorite for the MVP when he got hurt. He's obviously got to stay healthy, but there's no reason to think he wont bounce back.
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He still has to get better to even be considered for the HOF, it’s not the hall of very good. Go look at the modern QBs that have been in the HOF and you will see they led the league multiple times with 1 exception (Aikman but he’s got 3 rings). So no matter what the individual numbers Carr puts up if he’s not better than his contemporaries he’s not getting in and right now he is lacking
 
calamity said:
Personally, I believe the QB thing is overrated. Even Tom Brady would be an unheard of sixth round bust if he was drafted by the Lions or Browns.
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Maybe for Brady but wouldnt Peyton Manning have been successful as a QB no matter what team he was on?
 
calamity said:
Personally, I believe the QB thing is overrated. Even Tom Brady would be an unheard of sixth round bust if he was drafted by the Lions or Browns.
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This is so completely ridiculous. QBs make the team. And pointing to Foles taking over for Wentz does not count. Foles was already familiar with the system, was a starter in the league with experience, and he played lights out the past couple weeks.

WHat happened to Green Bay when Rodgers went out? They sucked. Why have the Jets sucked for so long? The Browns? THey have no QB. The QBs are the most important position, and only if you have a really good defense can you generally win without having a good QB, particularly in this day and age.
 
Sampson Simpson said:
This is so completely ridiculous. QBs make the team. And pointing to Foles taking over for Wentz does not count. Foles was already familiar with the system, was a starter in the league with experience, and he played lights out the past couple weeks.

WHat happened to Green Bay when Rodgers went out? They sucked. Why have the Jets sucked for so long? The Browns? THey have no QB. The QBs are the most important position, and only if you have a really good defense can you generally win without having a good QB, particularly in this day and age.
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Do you really believe Detroit or Cleveland win 5 Superbowls if only they had drafted Tom in the sixth round 18 years ago?
 
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