Trump wasn't the real architect of the new 'Party of Trump', he was only a messenger, a figurehead. There were influences that could be seen early on in his campaign that were part of a movement whose intent was to transform the Republican Party into something other than what it historically was intended to be. Instead of 'patriotism' and 'nationalism' they put forward the dangerous agenda of 'ultra-patriotism' and 'extreme nationalism'. Remember the words of Steve Bannon speaking on stage at the RNC claiming that the goal of the Republican party, their agenda, was the 'deconstruction of the administrative state'. At the time I heard that, I got a sick feeling because I knew what he meant. But yeah, Steve Bannon sent an unambiguous message that they intended to regress the party back to the beginning of the 20th century. Extreme nationalism as opposed to honest patriotism was the plague that emerged out of the 19th century and just ravaged the 20th century alongside extreme ideologies like Communism, Marxism-Leninism etc. It's taken 7 decades and 2 world wars to get us out of that state and now we're heading right back into it.
The acid test is going to be the 2018 congressional elections, which will demonstrate the inherent instability of the Republican coalition. The Independent vote is going to be the factor in how the Republican party will fare. Most Independents behave like partisans, voting predictably for one side or the other. Independents also encompass true moderates, people who are cross-polarized (liberal on some issues, conservative on others), and some who are just politically ambivalent or disconnected. But despite the rather disparate and somewhat motley nature of Independents, there is a common thread that binds them together: they are increasingly embarrassed by the political parties and increasingly sure that the two main political parties do not serve them and the larger society. And it is likely that this group will continue to grow.
It's becoming increasingly hard to justify the two major parties—or at least the system that sustains them—when most of the American public would rather wear a paper bag over their heads than be associated with either. The fact is that both parties are increasingly out of step with the broader public. Either way, the level of disaffection with the parties is suggesting that some significant rupture—a realignment of the parties, a viable Independent run for president in 2020, or even the emergence of a new alternative party, as rare as that has been in American politics, may be surprisingly soon at hand.
If anyone has ever wondered why a 3rd party candidate hasn't been on the ballot in a presidential election since 2008 and Ralph Nader's 4th attempt at a run for president. it's because of money. There are major structural impediments to a viable third party in U.S. politics. The Democratic and Republican national committees have access to hundreds of millions of dollars in cash, can activate tens of thousands of volunteers, and are incentivized to fund raise. Donor money flows to these two poles because that is where it is most effective. And, when push comes to shove, most Independents are actually partisans who will support one party or the other.
I think, or at least I hope, that with the weakening of the Republican core that the tide of money donations from big donors will start supporting Independent candidates although the interests of an Independent candidate is the polar-opposite of what big money donors objectives are.
