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Despite setbacks, Venezuela’s opposition wary of U.S. intervention

Rogue Valley

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Despite setbacks, Venezuela’s opposition wary of U.S. intervention

Nobody emerged stronger from Tuesday’s chaotic events, analysts said.

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An opposition protester holds a portrait of the Venezuelan liberator Simón Bolívar on Wednesday in Caracas.

5/2/19
CARACAS, Venezuela — In a collapsing country struggling with hunger and repression, Pasqual Paulino felt a rush of hope this week when opposition leader Juan Guaidó launched his defiant bid for a military uprising against President Nicolás Maduro. Yet even in his disappointment after its failure, he sees one thing that could yet make a bad situation worse. U.S. military intervention. “We don’t want it,” the 18-year-old law student said in between chants at an anti-Maduro protest on Thursday. “Do more sanctions. Apply more diplomatic pressure. And we thank you for what you’ve done. But do not send your military. That would spark a civil war and only divide Venezuelans. If we know anything, it’s that especially now, we need to stay united.” Some opposition supporters, particularly frustrated street protesters, now say they favor the once inconceivable — “Yanqui” troops landing in the Bolivarian Republic to remove Maduro.

But despite the setbacks of the week, Venezuela’s senior opposition leaders remain largely opposed to U.S. military intervention, according to opposition officials and people familiar with their thinking. Many believe U.S. troops could ignite internal conflicts within the military, irregular forces linked to Maduro and criminal cartels. Intervention would also undermine Guaidó’s claim to be a grass roots Venezuelan leader by seeming to confirm that he’s exactly what Maduro has claimed: A puppet of the United States. A U.S. military intervention would “bring more problems than solutions,” said Carlos Valero, a Guaidó supporter in the National Assembly. As Venezuela’s opposition leaders reject U.S. intervention, protesters in the streets are growing increasingly frustrated and tired of the bloodshed. At least four people were killed in protests this week, bringing the number for the year to 57. This week’s victims included boys aged 14 and 16; dozens more have been wounded. U.S. intervention, some in the street say, might now be the only way to remove Maduro.

The Maduro regime in Venezuela is one of the more heavily armed regimes in South America. The opposition certainly lacks the brute power necessary to force regime change.

Although they did not defect yesterday, a leading opposition figure ( Leopoldo López) suggesting three influential generals had talked with him may begin to sow lines of division within Maduro's inner circle.

Related: With Maduro Still in Power, Questions About the U.S. Role in Venezuela
 
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