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The China deal is more smoke and mirrors crap

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CriticalThought

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Looking at the Phase 1 deal it looks like it boils down to China buying more soybeans but a lot fewer than what we would need to break even on what has been lost with the trade war to begin with. I can't help but think Trump choked to avoid the December tarriffs kicking in and trying to create a "win" amid impeachment. If I am wrong please show me how. I bet after Christmas we hear that China reneged on the deal so Trump can keep his regressive tax policy going on his own supporters.
 
CriticalThought said:
Looking at the Phase 1 deal it looks like it boils down to China buying more soybeans but a lot fewer than what we would need to break even on what has been lost with the trade war to begin with. I can't help but think Trump choked to avoid the December tarriffs kicking in and trying to create a "win" amid impeachment. If I am wrong please show me how. I bet after Christmas we hear that China reneged on the deal so Trump can keep his regressive tax policy going on his own supporters.
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Still trying to make up dots and then trying to connect them, I see.
 
CriticalThought said:
Looking at the Phase 1 deal it looks like it boils down to China buying more soybeans but a lot fewer than what we would need to break even on what has been lost with the trade war to begin with. I can't help but think Trump choked to avoid the December tarriffs kicking in and trying to create a "win" amid impeachment. If I am wrong please show me how. I bet after Christmas we hear that China reneged on the deal so Trump can keep his regressive tax policy going on his own supporters.
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That’s exactly what will happen.

Trump only delayed in order to keep the impact of his tariffs from appearing in the box stores in time for Christmas.
 
Mycroft said:
Still trying to make up dots and then trying to connect them, I see.
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REfute the post. Use actual facts.

I realize that puts Trumpsters at an automatic disadvantage.
 
Mycroft said:
Still trying to make up dots and then trying to connect them, I see.
Click to expand...

Still trying to pass yourself off as a “China Whisperer,” I see.
 
Mycroft said:
Still trying to make up dots and then trying to connect them, I see.
Click to expand...

You have Google. Lay out how I am wrong. I am sorry if it doesn't jive with what FOX is telling you. It sucks that not everyone is telling you what you want to hear about this deal, but I am sure you have given it more thought than the reassurances your media has fed ya. So let's see it.
 
Pretty much what I said in another thread about this "trade deal". I see nothing in it that makes things better than they were before Trump's trade war.
 
CriticalThought said:
You have Google. Lay out how I am wrong. I am sorry if it doesn't jive with what FOX is telling you. It sucks that not everyone is telling you what you want to hear about this deal, but I am sure you have given it more thought than the reassurances your media has fed ya. So let's see it.
Click to expand...

1. The December tariffs do not hurt the US, so Trump has no reason to want to avoid imposing them. The December tariffs DO hurt China, so China has EVERY reason to avoid the tariffs. That is why they are making this deal.

2. Impeachment has nothing to do with this. Trump won't be hurt by impeachment at all.

3. Trump's tax policy is a good thing for the US. Along with Trump's energy policy and his roll-back of stifling regulations, his tax policy has given the US economy a shot in the arm.

4. The reality is, China needs this deal. They also know that the December tariffs...and more...will be the result if they renege on the deal. Now...they very well could renege, but it will be their decision. Not Trump's.

These, along with some others that you are blissfully unaware of, are the dots. Not the nonsense you've made up.
 
Trump stated that China had 'made concessions', but he failed to explain what those concessions were. I believe it was Trump that made the concessions, not China. The stock market spiked briefly on the news on Friday, then it just sort of went flat-line for the rest of the day because of lack of detail about the partial trade deal. Trump had gotten a temporary promise from China to purchase some soybeans, that's the extent of the deal. A 'promise' from China. This promise stoked enthusiasm in farmers and steeled their faith in Trump.

China made a unreliable promise to put on hold the additional tariffs up to 25% that were to go into effect today. As it stands now, Washington announced that will not charge Beijing with any new tariffs that were to go into effect today and will slightly reduce existing ones. Who made out in that temporary deal, the U.S. or Beijing? China knows that if they hold out long enough, Trump will stop punching the U.S. in the face with his tariffs that he keeps backing down on.

If Trump wants to win in 2020, there's one thing he absolutely needs to accomplish, that's a solid trade deal with China, one that will relieve the distress and suffering of U.S. farmers. The average mid-size farms have been devastated by these tariffs but they have been subsidized with our tax dollars. This isn't going to work much longer because the lion's share of bailouts have been going to the big corporate farms. Trump desperately needs the farm vote.

China knows very well that all they have to do is hold out until the 2020 election. They understand that if they give Trump what he wants, he'll win reelection and these tariffs wars will continue into his second term. If they don't soften up and acquiesce to Trump, he has no chance of winning. The question is; does China want 4 more years of Trump who has hurt them with his tariffs, or would they rather wait until 2020? Even if Trump is not impeached in the Senate in January, China may be confident that he could possibly be impeached on new indictments any time between Dec. and Nov. 2020.
 
Mycroft said:
1. The December tariffs do not hurt the US, so Trump has no reason to want to avoid imposing them. The December tariffs DO hurt China, so China has EVERY reason to avoid the tariffs. That is why they are making this deal.

2. Impeachment has nothing to do with this. Trump won't be hurt by impeachment at all.

3. Trump's tax policy is a good thing for the US. Along with Trump's energy policy and his roll-back of stifling regulations, his tax policy has given the US economy a shot in the arm.

4. The reality is, China needs this deal. They also know that the December tariffs...and more...will be the result if they renege on the deal. Now...they very well could renege, but it will be their decision. Not Trump's.

These, along with some others that you are blissfully unaware of, are the dots. Not the nonsense you've made up.
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So...you really think a 15% tarriff on video game consoles, computer monitors, Christmas decorations, clothing, etc. and the subsequent tarriffs that China would enact on us would only hurt China? And you think Trump's tax policy had a positive impact? Those are both statements that are factually wrong.
 
i still wonder if all these trades wars go like this...

"Ivanka, I'm about to tweet that I'm imposing tariffs. Be ready to buy stock today.

later...

"Ivanka, I'm about to tweet that I'm about to reach a trade deal. Be ready to sell stock today."
 
HumblePi said:
Trump stated that China had 'made concessions', but he failed to explain what those concessions were. I believe it was Trump that made the concessions, not China. The stock market spiked briefly on the news on Friday, then it just sort of went flat-line for the rest of the day because of lack of detail about the partial trade deal. Trump had gotten a temporary promise from China to purchase some soybeans, that's the extent of the deal. A 'promise' from China. This promise stoked enthusiasm in farmers and steeled their faith in Trump.

China made a unreliable promise to put on hold the additional tariffs up to 25% that were to go into effect today. As it stands now, Washington announced that will not charge Beijing with any new tariffs that were to go into effect today and will slightly reduce existing ones. Who made out in that temporary deal, the U.S. or Beijing? China knows that if they hold out long enough, Trump will stop punching the U.S. in the face with his tariffs that he keeps backing down on.

If Trump wants to win in 2020, there's one thing he absolutely needs to accomplish, that's a solid trade deal with China, one that will relieve the distress and suffering of U.S. farmers. The average mid-size farms have been devastated by these tariffs but they have been subsidized with our tax dollars. This isn't going to work much longer because the lion's share of bailouts have been going to the big corporate farms. Trump desperately needs the farm vote.

China knows very well that all they have to do is hold out until the 2020 election. They understand that if they give Trump what he wants, he'll win reelection and these tariffs wars will continue into his second term. If they don't soften up and acquiesce to Trump, he has no chance of winning. The question is; does China want 4 more years of Trump who has hurt them with his tariffs, or would they rather wait until 2020? Even if Trump is not impeached in the Senate in January, China may be confident that he could possibly be impeached on new indictments any time between Dec. and Nov. 2020.
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Are you reading what Mycroft is posting? Trump doesn't need a trade deal with China to win, he just needs FOX news to continue to sell the idea he already winning and his supporters will treat that bull as if it were the truth. Reality and facts are irrelevant to these people. They just parrot what they are told.
 
CriticalThought said:
Are you reading what Mycroft is posting? Trump doesn't need a trade deal with China to win, he just needs FOX news to continue to sell the idea he already winning and his supporters will treat that bull as if it were the truth. Reality and facts are irrelevant to these people. They just parrot what they are told.
Click to expand...

Something like the promise if a break in the trade agreements only works momentarily. Just like the reaction the stock market had on Friday, the celebratory confidence is short-lived unless there's a trade deal in the barrel and locked up permanently.
 
CaughtInThe said:
i still wonder if all these trades wars go like this...

"Ivanka, I'm about to tweet that I'm imposing tariffs. Be ready to buy stock today.

later...

"Ivanka, I'm about to tweet that I'm about to reach a trade deal. Be ready to sell stock today."
Click to expand...

It would not surprise me.
 
CriticalThought said:
So...you really think a 15% tarriff on video game consoles, computer monitors, Christmas decorations, clothing, etc. and the subsequent tarriffs that China would enact on us would only hurt China? And you think Trump's tax policy had a positive impact? Those are both statements that are factually wrong.
Click to expand...

shrug...

The data supports what I say. Look at the CPI. Look at consumer spending. Look at wage increases.

There are a lot of dots that connect to make that data show good things for the US economy. I spoke of a few of them.

Your "dots" not only do not affect anything...they don't exist.

btw, what we sell to China...that's what China would place tariffs on...are a drop in the bucket compared to what we buy from them and a drop in the bucket compared to our economy. So no...on the whole, we are not hurt at all. China, on the other hand, is being hurt a lot...and it's only going to get worse for them.
 
CriticalThought said:
Are you reading what Mycroft is posting? Trump doesn't need a trade deal with China to win, he just needs FOX news to continue to sell the idea he already winning and his supporters will treat that bull as if it were the truth. Reality and facts are irrelevant to these people. They just parrot what they are told.
Click to expand...

Trump doesn't need Fox news. Fox news needs Trump.

Nobody needs to sell the idea that Trump is already winning against China. Just look at the numbers. Look at China's actions.

That's reality. That's facts.
 
HumblePi said:
Something like the promise if a break in the trade agreements only works momentarily. Just like the reaction the stock market had on Friday, the celebratory confidence is short-lived unless there's a trade deal in the barrel and locked up permanently.
Click to expand...


That is the whole point of the "phase 1" nonsense. If they could get a bigger deal with China they would have, but Trump needs to push this nonsense past the 2020 elections to even have a shot.
 
CriticalThought said:
That is the whole point of the "phase 1" nonsense. If they could get a bigger deal with China they would have, but Trump needs to push this nonsense past the 2020 elections to even have a shot.
Click to expand...

yup


but think about it. these people have been conned by two massive liars (Rush and Sean) for up to 30 years. it's nothing for Trump to con them on just about anything as well. they just aren't savvy.
 
Mycroft said:
Trump doesn't need Fox news. Fox news needs Trump.

Nobody needs to sell the idea that Trump is already winning against China. Just look at the numbers. Look at China's actions.

That's reality. That's facts.
Click to expand...

Trump is nothing without FOX. FOX viewers are his entire base and he needs them to sell his disinformation so that he is isolated from any accountability for screwing up.

Yes the tarriffs hurt us.

CBO expects deficit to grow more than projected, warns tariffs could harm growth

China Waiving Tariffs on Soybeans and Pork Could Help Farmers and Boost U.S. Exports

Sorry FOX did not tell you the truth.


Yes, Trump's tax cut failed to do what it promised.

CBO Confirms GOP Tax Law Contributes to Darkening Fiscal Future | House Budget Committee Democrats

Did the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Pay for Itself in 2018? | Tax Policy Center

Sorry that FOX did not tell you the truth.

But hey! You don't care! Why should ya? Facts are not important. Being told everything is ok, and your guy is doing great things is what you want. Just go with it. Don't stress yourself out with reality.
 
The so-called trade gap has gotten worse under Trump whereas Obama was improving relative to Bush. Nothing that comes from this, regardless of what is said in the agreement, that will result in any more narrowing of the “trade gap” than between China and the rest of the world.

Meanwhile, back at The Ranch, China, Canada and Mexico have made trade pacts with the rest of the world that Trump is doing his best to throw into disarray. There will be no significant “improvement” in our trade deals with those or any other countries than they agree with one another.

China spending $50 billion on U.S. farm goods, tightening its intellectual-property protections and opening its financial services markets are the biggest parts of the deal. Our highest export year of ag prod to China was 2012 at about $27B. I have no great expectations of coming reasonably close to that target in any reasonable length of time.

The interesting think about IP protection is that it will mean much less product, if the agreement is effective, that the US consumer gets at a lower price than would be as is. China knocks-off American product from “stolen” IP and thus can produce much cheaper. I don’t care that they are taking advantage of our IP if it results in lower COL for the American consumer. But, luckily for the US consumer, the trade deal is most likely not worth the paper it’s written on.
 
Mycroft said:
shrug...

The data supports what I say. Look at the CPI. Look at consumer spending. Look at wage increases.

There are a lot of dots that connect to make that data show good things for the US economy. I spoke of a few of them.

Your "dots" not only do not affect anything...they don't exist.

btw, what we sell to China...that's what China would place tariffs on...are a drop in the bucket compared to what we buy from them and a drop in the bucket compared to our economy. So no...on the whole, we are not hurt at all. China, on the other hand, is being hurt a lot...and it's only going to get worse for them.
Click to expand...

Lol. Is that what FOX told ya? The economy is doing good BECAUSE of Trump's policies and not IN SPITE OF them? LAWL.

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Source: 9 charts comparing Trump economy to Obama, Bush administrations - Business Insider

But...but that isn't what FOX has been telling Mycroft! What is going on? Mycroft looked at the NUMBERS people! He looked at the NUMBERS! Well...the numbers according to FOX.
 
Mycroft said:
Black Friday sets an online record and consumers are still spending on Small Business Saturday - CNN

Damn!! Those Trump tariffs are KILLING us!!

:doh
Click to expand...

Ooooooooh! $7.4 billion. That is a lot! Wow! You sure made an amazing argument there! Totally killer. Wait...how much has trade war cost?

Trump’s Trade War Has Cost Americans $34 Billion So Far – And That Number’s Only Going Up – Tariffs Hurt the Heartland

Hm...34 billion in October? Wow! I am sure happy you posted an anecdotal article about Black Friday sales, particularly since the US consumer got to pay the additional costs of the tarriffs on those goods we bought. Yay! Mycroft proves a point without even realizing he is doing it. Good for you paying your regressive tax increase Mr. Trump supporter!
 
Seems a lot of people don't even know what this latest Phase One deal is all about. Not surprising since most of the media is more interested in pushing their own biased opinions about it than they are in presenting the facts. To help correct this, I present the Summary Fact Sheet from USTR Lighthizer.

https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/US-China-Agreement-Fact-Sheet.pdf

Some of you will be genuinely interested in this knowledge. Some of you will ignore this so you can continue to pretend that you don't know things.

So it goes...
 
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