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The Trump-Induced Incoming Chinese Collapse

chuckiechan said:
They have been warned, pleaded with, cajoled, but the commie bastsrds want to rule the world and refuse to listen to US barbarians.

We have warned them repeatedly that over capacity is not the way to prosperity. But commies always know best and the sand under their economic castle is weakening.

I hope they aren’t so arrogant as to start a war.
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I will like your comment, but the war has already been waging for 3-4 decades.
 
Grand Mal said:
Got something to say? A point to make?
'Cuz I don't do assigned reading.
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That's probably why you are so uninformed. If you want me to summarize, China is on the path to collapse, and it has a lot to do with President Trump. Trump has driven up interest rates, that is driving money out of China and to the USA at a time when China was depending most on inviting American money into China. If you want the more informed version then you can do your assigned reading.
 
The bottom is dropping out of the Yuan, guess Trump says checkmate in the currency wars at this point since any move by the Chinese is currency manipulation.
 
I see...so if Trump brings on the next global economic crisis with his trade war, it will be the fault of the Chinese. Good to know the talking points Trump supporters are planning to use.
 
CriticalThought said:
I see...so if Trump brings on the next global economic crisis with his trade war, it will be the fault of the Chinese. Good to know the talking points Trump supporters are planning to use.
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Well, Trump is bringing the next global economic crisis because the Chinese have been engaging in unethical and unfair trade practices. See this thread
https://www.debatepolitics.com/asia/324267-chinas-economic-aggression.html

it's going to hurt... a lot, but I can see why he's doing it.
 
CriticalThought said:
I see...so if Trump brings on the next global economic crisis with his trade war, it will be the fault of the Chinese. Good to know the talking points Trump supporters are planning to use.
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You didnt even glance at the article did you :roll:
 
CriticalThought said:
I see...so if Trump brings on the next global economic crisis with his trade war, it will be the fault of the Chinese. Good to know the talking points Trump supporters are planning to use.
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We finally have a President who will no accept China's world economic tactics. The Chinese, if they keep on their current path, will economically self destruct. Of course...it's all Trump's fault.

Spoken like a true Trump hater.
 
Linc said:
The gop’s and #45’s behavior with the traitorous ZTE would like to disagree with you. trump brands made in China, including his MAGA hats, go unnoticed by alt-rightists. trump family connections to China used to be against the Emoluments Clause.
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Yeah so what.. he's still bringing the house down despite having business interests in China. Besides I don't think this is all Trump, the Russian sanctions wasn't Trump, it was Congress. The Iran nuclear deal wasn't Trump it was the Israeli's and although he sold this as I'm getting your jobs back from China, it turns out it's not about jobs either. In fact it's far more serious than American jobs, it's basically China stealing the resources and ports of poor countries with unethical lending practices... read the goddamn thread I linked to it's all there.
 
Mycroft said:
We finally have a President who will no accept China's world economic tactics. The Chinese, if they keep on their current path, will economically self destruct. Of course...it's all Trump's fault.

Spoken like a true Trump hater.
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The trump crime syndicate is in bed with Vlad and Xi.
 
Linc said:
The trump crime syndicate is in bed with Vlad and Xi.
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I find it sad that Americans are that blinded by Trump, they forget there are many competent people behind him and although he has no clue, these individuals are not remotely as clueless....but then that's American politics for you
 
FreeWits said:
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/trade-troubles-china-poised-bring-down-global-economy-25946
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What you fine folks don't seem to understand is, the Chinese will survive all of this.
Their wealthy elites get to keep what they have at the pleasure of the ruling cabal in Beijing.
As for everyone else, 1949 just isn't that far back in their memory.
In fact, even 1973 isn't.
That's when Nixon opened China up to the West and our trade, starting with US trade, of course.

That's only a generation ago, and real actual capital wealth for private individuals is even more recent than that, like maybe in the last twenty years at most.

If China decided it wanted to punish America, the decision would come down from President Xi that manufacturing for the US market is to be curtailed significantly, and the machinery would grind to a halt, Wal-Mart shelves would be empty in a matter of a month or two, followed by the rest of America's consumer paradise.

Xi could easily just decide to put China back on a "1949" diet of "black pajamas, a bowl of rice and one bicycle per household."

Does anyone honestly think Xi and his ruling faction would care if up to two hundred million Chinese died?
I don't think so...not with almost one and a half billion population.
Does anyone truly believe that the Chinese people are capable of overthrowing the Red Army?
Guess again.

All China has to do is commit to a "five year plan" (Communists LOVE 5-year plans, remember?) of severe austerity where manufacturing is curtailed to the point where they can cut out the American economy entirely and still survive.
All they have to do is impose strict limits on what every individual is allowed to have, earn and keep for five years.
We're not talking about cutting out the economic junk food, we're talking an ANOREXIA diet.
Not only HAVE they done similar things in the past, they can do it now.

I do not for one second think China would have any difficulty in turning out the lights on the United States if they decided it was necessary. For them, it would be a matter of "starving the beast into submission".
We better think long and hard about what will happen if China decides to "Party like it's 1949".
 
HERA the Stars said:
Well, Trump is bringing the next global economic crisis because the Chinese have been engaging in unethical and unfair trade practices. See this thread
https://www.debatepolitics.com/asia/324267-chinas-economic-aggression.html

it's going to hurt... a lot, but I can see why he's doing it.
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So, is the talking point that America's heartland has to suffer because "the Chinese did it to us"?
Oh great. Is America's heartland dumb enough to actually believe such nonsense?
 
Checkerboard Strangler said:
So, is the talking point that America's heartland has to suffer because "the Chinese did it to us"?
Oh great. Is America's heartland dumb enough to actually believe such nonsense?
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Yes that's exactly what is happening, I don't like it, I'm Australian we're going to suffer more than your heartland 35% of our exports are to China. Doesn't matter whether I like it or not, this is what is happening.
 
Checkerboard Strangler said:
What you fine folks don't seem to understand is, the Chinese will survive all of this.
Their wealthy elites get to keep what they have at the pleasure of the ruling cabal in Beijing.
As for everyone else, 1949 just isn't that far back in their memory.
In fact, even 1973 isn't.
That's when Nixon opened China up to the West and our trade, starting with US trade, of course.

That's only a generation ago, and real actual capital wealth for private individuals is even more recent than that, like maybe in the last twenty years at most.

If China decided it wanted to punish America, the decision would come down from President Xi that manufacturing for the US market is to be curtailed significantly, and the machinery would grind to a halt, Wal-Mart shelves would be empty in a matter of a month or two, followed by the rest of America's consumer paradise.

Xi could easily just decide to put China back on a "1949" diet of "black pajamas, a bowl of rice and one bicycle per household."

Does anyone honestly think Xi and his ruling faction would care if up to two hundred million Chinese died?
I don't think so...not with almost one and a half billion population.
Does anyone truly believe that the Chinese people are capable of overthrowing the Red Army?
Guess again.

All China has to do is commit to a "five year plan" (Communists LOVE 5-year plans, remember?) of severe austerity where manufacturing is curtailed to the point where they can cut out the American economy entirely and still survive.
All they have to do is impose strict limits on what every individual is allowed to have, earn and keep for five years.
We're not talking about cutting out the economic junk food, we're talking an ANOREXIA diet.
Not only HAVE they done similar things in the past, they can do it now.

I do not for one second think China would have any difficulty in turning out the lights on the United States if they decided it was necessary. For them, it would be a matter of "starving the beast into submission".
We better think long and hard about what will happen if China decides to "Party like it's 1949".
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I also don't agree 100% with your prediction on China's outlook. The clincher for China will be high levels of debt, financial sector and non financial sector (their so called shadow banking sector). Since 2008 financial crises they have accumulated an enormous amount of debt to stimulate their economy. Essentially this have caused more harm than good, they are a developing economy and should have allowed a correction instead of forcing more growth, the same way it generally happens in advanced economies.

china%2Bde.gif


the other issue is that many borrowers are unable to repay their loans and exactly how many of these loans are based on dubious collaral is unclear, although estimated in the trillions. An example is collateral such as warehouses full of steel that are essentially empty.

China is also far more vulnerable than you suggest as they have many ethnic groups the reason for the communist party's iron grip.

Yes they will survive as we all will, however I believe they will not suvive as well as advanced economies for the above reasons.
 
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HERA the Stars said:
I also don't agree 100% with your prediction on China's outlook. The clincher for China will be high levels of debt, financial sector and non financial sector (their so called shadow banking sector). Since 2008 financial crises they have accumulated an enormous amount of debt to stimulate their economy. Essentially this have caused more harm than good, they are a developing economy and should have allowed a correction instead of forcing more growth, the same way it generally happens in advanced economies.

china%2Bde.gif


the other issue is that many borrowers are unable to repay their loans and exactly how many of these loans are based on dubious collaral is unclear, although estimated in the trillions. An example is collateral such as warehouses full of steel that are essentially empty.

China is also far more vulnerable than you suggest as they have many ethnic groups the reason for the communist party's iron grip.

Yes they will survive as we all will, however I believe they will not suvive as well as advanced economies for the above reasons.
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So then you're not actually disagreeing with anything, because I didn't say that they're going to emerge smelling like a rose.
I simply say that China's leadership will make an announcement that the next five years will be years of hardship and sacrifice, and that's that.
And they will be indeed, and China WILL suffer, but the Chinese people will simply revert to the economic portrait that existed pre-1973.

One bowl of rice, one kid, black pajamas and a bicycle.

It's the developed WESTERN economies, like ours, like AU, like EU, which will suffer much more.
For the United States it would be certain disaster, and the responsibility for it rests WITH TRUMP.
 
Checkerboard Strangler said:
So then you're not actually disagreeing with anything, because I didn't say that they're going to emerge smelling like a rose.
I simply say that China's leadership will make an announcement that the next five years will be years of hardship and sacrifice, and that's that.
And they will be indeed, and China WILL suffer, but the Chinese people will simply revert to the economic portrait that existed pre-1973.

One bowl of rice, one kid, black pajamas and a bicycle.

It's the developed WESTERN economies, like ours, like AU, like EU, which will suffer much more.
For the United States it would be certain disaster, and the responsibility for it rests WITH TRUMP.
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The Chinese are very different today from what you describe, they are far more sophisticated, I also doubt they will simply revert back to pre 1973, imagine forcing a millennial wired to his iPhone to now use horse and cart, not going to happen
One bowl of rice, one kid, black pajamas and a bicycle.
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HERA the Stars said:
The Chinese are very different today from what you describe, they are far more sophisticated, I also doubt they will simply revert back to pre 1973, imagine forcing a millennial wired to his iPhone to now use horse and cart, not going to happen
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You seem to think that there's a Congress which will debate this policy, and a population capable of fomenting dissent.
There isn't.

I'm not saying that there won't be friction or dissent. I'm saying that the Red Army will put it down and it will do so brutally if need be.
I realize how sophisticated they are, but I also realize that China is still a dictatorship.
 
Checkerboard Strangler said:
You seem to think that there's a Congress which will debate this policy, and a population capable of fomenting dissent.
There isn't.

I'm not saying that there won't be friction or dissent. I'm saying that the Red Army will put it down and it will do so brutally if need be.
I realize how sophisticated they are, but I also realize that China is still a dictatorship.
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I never suggested dissent, you did. The fallout of what's to come all depends on the how far their debt crises pull them under and I don't believe anyone can predict it at this stage.
 
Mycroft said:
We finally have a President who will no accept China's world economic tactics. The Chinese, if they keep on their current path, will economically self destruct. Of course...it's all Trump's fault.

Spoken like a true Trump hater.
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China is an inevitability. Nearly 1/4 of the world is ethnically Chinese, and in a full-blown trade war the pampered-to, coddled and self-entitled American consumers will tolerate deprivation for about two months while the Chinese people will hunker down and unite in an effort that they're willing to make last a generation.
You have no hope of winning a trade war with China.
 
FreeWits said:
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/trade-troubles-china-poised-bring-down-global-economy-25946
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Well, maybe. As a conservatarian I have always been strongly against Tariffs, and I see nothing but economic disaster if this gets into a deeper trade war (which Trump seems willing to do). However, it is what it is and perhaps it will work out - should Trump come out of this with a serious and enforceable set of agreements to stop Chinese theft of intellectual property and cease mistreatment of US commerce in China, I'd give Trump kudos.

However, China has survived prior massively bad investments (building ghost cities without tenants) and continues to prosper.


Trump has taken the nation into uncharted territory, it could be the biggest disaster since the great depression or a shocking victory. We shall see.
 
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