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Why Ayatollah Khamenei will not negotiate with Trump

* China is not, "calling the shots" as you said
* China is a HUGE importer of Iranian crude; the biggest. Check
* China is NOT gonna play Trump's ****ty game to stop importing Iranian crude
* do U C where I'm going, yet????????????

Yes, except I never said China is calling any shots regarding Iran. Perhaps you have a reading comprehension problem?
 
Yes, except I never said China is calling any shots regarding Iran. Perhaps you have a reading comprehension problem?

I think you implied that I was making the claim; I was not ..............................

If there was some other country who is REALLY the focus of the negotiations, as is the case with NK, your scenario might be one considered by Trump. But Iran doesn't have a "China" behind them pulling their strings, so Trump will take a different approach with them.

Just so you R straight on that point ..............

folks, even as yourself, may want to look at the bigger picture, out of the box; Trump aint all that .............
 
I think you implied that I was making the claim; I was not ..............................



Just so you R straight on that point ..............

Yes. I said that. And then you mentioned how China buys a lot of oil from Iran. I took that as an implication that China has some influence over what Iran does.

Since that's not what you were implying, then I have no idea why you even mentioned China and Iranian oil.

Anyway...moving on...
 
Yes. I said that. And then you mentioned how China buys a lot of oil from Iran. I took that as an implication that China has some influence over what Iran does.

Since that's not what you were implying, then I have no idea why you even mentioned China and Iranian oil.

Anyway...moving on...

you are just like so many Americans; you really do not see the forest for the trees, do you?
 
you are just like so many Americans; you really do not see the forest for the trees, do you?

Unlike you, I don't get distracted by squirrels in the woods.
 
Unlike you, I don't get distracted by squirrels in the woods.

squirrels, even in an urban setting are VERY distracting but not nearly as much as the squirrels here @ DP ............
 
The box? Does China buy Iranian crude by the box?

Okay...I'll admit that snark was uncalled for, but I was talking about dealing with the decision-maker. You implied China makes decisions for Iran...presumably based on the fact that they buy something from Iran. I dispute that implication.

If that's not what you were getting at, then please explain.

Since it's pretty obvious that you think that American economic influence should be able to compel other countries which buy from or sell to the United States of America in major amounts to do what the US want's done, your position that Chinese economic influence should NOT be able to compel other countries which buy from or sell to the PRC in major amounts to do what the PRC wants done is rather puzzling.
 
China is the single biggest purchaser of Iranian crude so, ............

If the USA again sanctions Iran to the point where they cannot usefully access the world banking system what difference does it make?
 
If the USA again sanctions Iran to the point where they cannot usefully access the world banking system what difference does it make?

I don't know but if that occurs then we shall C ...........
 
If the USA again sanctions Iran to the point where they cannot usefully access the world banking system what difference does it make?

Well, for one thing, it might mean that the Iranians would take payment in Renminbi.

For another, it might mean that the "world banking system" tells the US to take it and stick it.

Although the US$ is ONE of the world's "reserve currencies" it isn't the only one. The US$ is the major world "reserve currency" because the US does one heck of a lot of international trading and will only accept payment in US$. If the amount of international trading that the US does declines then the need for such a large amount of US$s to be kept as a "reserve currency" also declines.

If the PRC starts doing more international trading, then having a larger amount of Renminbi as a "reserve currency" becomes much more attractive - especially if the PRC decides that it doesn't want to be paid in US$.

The only way that the US can sanction Iran to the point where Iran cannot usefully access the world banking system is for the US to sanction EVERY country that doesn't immediately give servile obedience to the dictates of the US government.

It might surprise you to know that there are actually people in the world who do not know that the President of the United States of America is the actual ruler of their country.
 
Trump isn't interested in "negotiating" with Iran. He'll make their existence so miserable they will be BEGGING Trump to make them a deal.

Neither China nor India are going to honor Trumps sanctions. Both will continue to import Iranian oil as I suspect will other nations.

Let's face it, Trump isn't exactly very popular in the world.
 
Neither China nor India are going to honor Trumps sanctions. Both will continue to import Iranian oil as I suspect will other nations.

Let's face it, Trump isn't exactly very popular in the world.

You never know what will happen. Heck, a couple years ago people said that China will never honor Obama's sanctions against NK. My...how that changed!
 
From al-Jazeera

Why Ayatollah Khamenei will not negotiate with Trump


In a June 13 Washington Post article, former US ambassador to the UN Zalmay Khalilzad argued that the Trump administration's approach towards Iran - withdrawing from the nuclear deal and imposing crippling sanctions - has a reasonable chance of bringing its leadership to the negotiating table.

The logic behind this idea is that imposing "the highest level" of economic sanctions will not only prevent Iran from supporting its proxies and destabilising the Middle East, but will also lead to economic hardship and possibly mass discontent, which could shake the regime's stability.
This approach was tested under the Obama administration and eventually resulted in Iran sitting down for talks in 2013 and signing a nuclear deal in 2015 under President Hasan Rouhani.

But the idea that this could happen again in the aftermath of US President Donald Trump withdrawing from the nuclear deal is not just optimistic - it is flawed. It is not in the interest of the hardliner leadership in Iran to sit down for direct talks with the Trump administration.

COMMENT:-

You have to interpose a bunch of "he thinks" and "he believes" at the appropriate points, but once done the article does give a reasonable description of the mind-set of the Iranian leadership.

It doesn't matter if that mind-set is founded in reality or not, because the important thing is that the mind-set is what is BELIEVED.


Aytollah Khamenei is more a figure head rather than actually running ****. Aggregate, the Revolutionary Guard's Generals has more influence over the states affairs. What the linked discussion story doesn't get into is the IRGC controls Iran's economy. It's on the same plane as if the C.I.A. controlled the American economy, Dept. of Justice, and Congress. It's Iran so it is on a much smaller scale, too.

Left to its own devices, Iran was on a trajectory of becoming more moderate, albeit, the outcome of such a thing would've still took quite a while. Pulling out of the nuclear deal dismantles any notion of moderation.
 
Neither China nor India are going to honor Trumps sanctions. Both will continue to import Iranian oil as I suspect will other nations.

Let's face it, Trump isn't exactly very popular in the world
.

Trump is even less popular here in America :2razz: :lol: :lamo ............
 
Left to its own devices, Iran was on a trajectory of becoming more moderate, albeit, the outcome of such a thing would've still took quite a while. Pulling out of the nuclear deal dismantles any notion of moderation.

I wouldn't go so far as to say that AMERICAN "pulling out of the nuclear deal" would dismantle any notion of moderation IF the other countries remain committed to it.

However, IF all of the other countries also "pull out" then the Iranians will have no reason to trust any of them for the foreseeable future - and won't.

But IF, the other countries remain committed to "The Deal" then, who knows, possibly Iranian oil could replace the oil that the US exports (because that oil comes from Canada and, under the terms of NAFTA, the US can purchase it at below the international price for oil [a classic definition of "dumping" - but the US doesn't mind it in this case] and then export it for sale at the international price for oil).

It wouldn't surprise me to see the Canadian government decide to accept some action of Mr. Trump which is in violation of the NAFTA provisions as being the US resiling from the agreement and thus allowing the Canadian government to treat the agreement as "unlawfully" terminated. This would allow the Canadian government to both restrict the amount of Canadian oil that goes to the United States of America and impose export fees on that oil so that it isn't being sold below the world price of oil.
 
if we use common sense and not confused ourselves. its the battle of strength the more you are stronger the more safer you are. The strength of a country depend on a Formula which consist of a mixture of weapons, Intelligence, media control, people control and Money, Weapons are the main element in this Formula. if you haven't got one of those element in this formula you are doomed its a formula for a country to survive in today World.

if we apply the above Formula on Iran Vs America, America will win because they have got full Element of the above formula Ayatollah Khamenei is ready for the talk but America is not. America already put sanctions on Iran and also been told to allies such as India, japan and Korea recently not buy oil from Iran. America main purpose is to weaken Iran and then change the regime like they did with Libya, Iraq and Syria. if you apply the above formula to those countries Libya rich country but not intelligence and no weapon to defend, Iraq again no weapons and no intelligence same goes to Syria, Syria has got one advantage that Russia is helping them otherwise the regime would be already changed.

if we apply the above formula to south Korea, America set to the negotiated table with South Korea you will see that they have got weapons Atomic Bomb and Hydrogen bomb which forced America to set to negotiated table.

Moral is if you want to Save your country You must have the above formula otherwise you are doomed Particularly if your Muslim in today world and the examples are IRAQ, SYRIA and LIBYA.
 
Before the treaty was signed there were reports that using intelligence sources in the US and Israel that ranged from Iran already had nukes or Iran was months from having a nuke.

A 15 year "glide path" was much better than where things seemed to be heading.

WHAT INTELLIGENCE REPORTS ARE YOU REFERRING (inventing) TO ????

A 15 year glide path is just kicking the can down the road. Better to strangle the infant Iran nuke monster in the cradle, than wait for it to mature.

The ideal option would be a regime change from a lunatic theocracy to a secular democracy. Sanction seem to be stressing Iranian civilians in that direction.
 
WHAT INTELLIGENCE REPORTS ARE YOU REFERRING (inventing) TO ????

You can start your reading with "America's Intelligence Assessment on the Iranian Nuclear Issue" (don't forget to follow the links) and then go on to any of the 13,200,000 results that Google will return on a search for "intelligence reports on iranian nuclear weapons".

A 15 year glide path is just kicking the can down the road. Better to strangle the infant Iran nuke monster in the cradle, than wait for it to mature.

Why not advocate the much simpler final solution and use up some of that portion of the US nuclear inventory that is rapidly approaching its "Best Before" date to obliterate Iran and the Iranians?

After that, you could take steps to ensure that none of the survivors ever receive an education that would enable them to potentially develop the theoretical ability to possibly be able to think about constructing nuclear weapons.

The ideal option would be a regime change from a lunatic theocracy to a secular democracy.

I do so love it when others insist on imposing their beliefs on others by force on the theory that "Our God tells us what everyone should do and we will kill you if you don't agree.".

Sanction seem to be stressing Iranian civilians in that direction.

That could well be. On the other hand those sanctions could also be stiffening the will of the Iranians to resist being forced to do what their culture says they shouldn't do simply because some other culture says that they must do it.
 
From al-Jazeera

Why Ayatollah Khamenei will not negotiate with Trump


In a June 13 Washington Post article, former US ambassador to the UN Zalmay Khalilzad argued that the Trump administration's approach towards Iran - withdrawing from the nuclear deal and imposing crippling sanctions - has a reasonable chance of bringing its leadership to the negotiating table.

The logic behind this idea is that imposing "the highest level" of economic sanctions will not only prevent Iran from supporting its proxies and destabilising the Middle East, but will also lead to economic hardship and possibly mass discontent, which could shake the regime's stability.
This approach was tested under the Obama administration and eventually resulted in Iran sitting down for talks in 2013 and signing a nuclear deal in 2015 under President Hasan Rouhani.

But the idea that this could happen again in the aftermath of US President Donald Trump withdrawing from the nuclear deal is not just optimistic - it is flawed. It is not in the interest of the hardliner leadership in Iran to sit down for direct talks with the Trump administration.

COMMENT:-

You have to interpose a bunch of "he thinks" and "he believes" at the appropriate points, but once done the article does give a reasonable description of the mind-set of the Iranian leadership.

It doesn't matter if that mind-set is founded in reality or not, because the important thing is that the mind-set is what is BELIEVED.

First of all we do not need to negotiate with them. Trump will dictate to them what we will do if need be.....that is all that needs to be said. They are cowering in fear ...you can bet your sweet ass on dat. Not even to mention unrest is growing. All that needs to be understood about Iran is that they are in desperate need of a regime change....before like solomon their current leaders bring everything crashing down on their heads. If we do not do it...Israel will. Iran has no future, no security...under their present regime. They best wake up...and it appears that many of them are. More power to those who oppose the tyrannical and corrupt Mullahs.
 
WHAT INTELLIGENCE REPORTS ARE YOU REFERRING (inventing) TO ????

A 15 year glide path is just kicking the can down the road. Better to strangle the infant Iran nuke monster in the cradle, than wait for it to mature.

The ideal option would be a regime change from a lunatic theocracy to a secular democracy. Sanction seem to be stressing Iranian civilians in that direction.

Good analysis.
 
First of all we do not need to negotiate with them. Trump will dictate to them what we will do if need be.....that is all that needs to be said. They are cowering in fear ...you can bet your sweet ass on dat. Not even to mention unrest is growing. All that needs to be understood about Iran is that they are in desperate need of a regime change....before like solomon their current leaders bring everything crashing down on their heads. If we do not do it...Israel will. Iran has no future, no security...under their present regime. They best wake up...and it appears that many of them are. More power to those who oppose the tyrannical and corrupt Mullahs.

Uh huh, yeah sure, right.
 
First of all we do not need to negotiate with them. Trump will dictate to them what we will do if need be.....that is all that needs to be said. They are cowering in fear ...you can bet your sweet ass on dat. Not even to mention unrest is growing. All that needs to be understood about Iran is that they are in desperate need of a regime change....before like solomon their current leaders bring everything crashing down on their heads. If we do not do it...Israel will. Iran has no future, no security...under their present regime. They best wake up...and it appears that many of them are. More power to those who oppose the tyrannical and corrupt Mullahs.

The only problem is that the sanctions weren't stopping them the last time, and the hardliners have been chomping at the bit to get out of the deal so they can continue moving toward with their nuclear weapons. The regime change you're thinking about isn't necessarily between the moderates and the current leadership, but the hardliners who want to be rid of the current moderates. You can complain about the Mullah's now but if the woodwork crew gets in power, they'll look like a Sunday picnic. Remember, despotic regimes aren't worried about their people the way democratic countries are; the military is at their disposal to handle anyone not toeing the line. The whole idea that you don't negotiate with Iran is arrogant and naive; there's really no choice since forcefully disarming them isn't a viable option at present time.
 
The only problem is that the sanctions weren't stopping them the last time, and the hardliners have been chomping at the bit to get out of the deal so they can continue moving toward with their nuclear weapons. The regime change you're thinking about isn't necessarily between the moderates and the current leadership, but the hardliners who want to be rid of the current moderates. You can complain about the Mullah's now but if the woodwork crew gets in power, they'll look like a Sunday picnic. Remember, despotic regimes aren't worried about their people the way democratic countries are; the military is at their disposal to handle anyone not toeing the line. The whole idea that you don't negotiate with Iran is arrogant and naive; there's really no choice since forcefully disarming them isn't a viable option at present time.

Pathetic naive nonsense.....First of all Israel will not allow Iran to go nuclear...so forget about Iran going nuclear ....it will never,never be allowed to happen. You can bet your sweet ass on dat. Iran is in a very tough spot...look how Israel keeps attacking their forces in Syria. All they can do is talk tough...and sooner than later they will realize how stupid and ineffective that is. Their regime is doomed....either the Iranians rise up and depose it or we or Israel or some combination thereof will do it for them. Case closed.
 
Pathetic naive nonsense.....First of all Israel will not allow Iran to go nuclear...so forget about Iran going nuclear ....it will never,never be allowed to happen. You can bet your sweet ass on dat. Iran is in a very tough spot...look how Israel keeps attacking their forces in Syria. All they can do is talk tough...and sooner than later they will realize how stupid and ineffective that is. Their regime is doomed....either the Iranians rise up and depose it or we or Israel or some combination thereof will do it for them. Case closed.

:lamo

Sure. Which is why Iran was on its way to developing a nuclear weapon. No one is interested in what it would take to bring Iran under control; if you think it's that cut and dry it isn't me who is naive. Israel attacking their forces in Syria is not the same of waging a war against Iran. Regime change is another aspect that isn't as simple as you propose considering it hasn't happened since 1979; if there is regime change it may be the hard liners. As for their regime being doomed, they're actually in better shape now than they were with the last round of sanctions because at least then countries involved were on the same page. After Trump pulled the US out of the JCPOA, the other countries are not planning on honoring the sanctions. As it stands, China is taking the lead in keeping the deal alive along with the other nations.
 
:lamo

Sure. Which is why Iran was on its way to developing a nuclear weapon. No one is interested in what it would take to bring Iran under control; if you think it's that cut and dry it isn't me who is naive. Israel attacking their forces in Syria is not the same of waging a war against Iran. Regime change is another aspect that isn't as simple as you propose considering it hasn't happened since 1979; if there is regime change it may be the hard liners. As for their regime being doomed, they're actually in better shape now than they were with the last round of sanctions because at least then countries involved were on the same page. After Trump pulled the US out of the JCPOA, the other countries are not planning on honoring the sanctions. As it stands, China is taking the lead in keeping the deal alive along with the other nations.

Reality Check: Iran's regime under seige.

'It’s hard to shake the sense that a reckoning is approaching for Iran’s regime. The assaults from abroad are very public. Over the weekend, a suspected Israeli missile strike targeted an Iranian military base in Syria, the second such strike in April. On April 30, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu presented what he claims is definitive evidence that Iran has violated the terms of the nuclear deal, which would provide additional motivation to U.S. President Donald Trump to cancel the deal when it comes up for reauthorization next month. But Tehran is facing resistance at home as well, most recently with strikes in Iranian Kurdistan. Whether it comes from Israel, the U.S. or both, Iran is on the verge of a major test, and every move it makes abroad could jeopardize its security at home.'

https://geopoliticalfutures.com/irans-regime-siege/

https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/.premium-the-iranian-regime-is-in-trouble-1.6217937
 
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