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Trump, VE Day, and North Korea

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Today is VE Day. A day where the war in Europe ended, and we started the long slog towards rebuilding Europe.

One of the things that came out of that was NATO.

If Trump kills the nuke deal with Iran, our allies (which is to also say NATO) will be seriously pissed. If Iran is smart, and they don't restart their nuke program, Europe will side with Iran and will give us the cold shoulder.

It will be another major blow to the transatlantic partnership that has kept that part of the world relatively stable since the end of WW2.

It will also undermine our efforts to get North Korea to end it's nuclear program, and improve China's position to create a situation that ignores the nuclear program, while drawing both Koreas into it's arms.

You could argue that China's approach is a good thing; and it might be. But crude dictatorships like NK don't last forever, and when they collapse it's often quite messy. Which means the mess could get quite nuclear.

Remove the propaganda, and the nuke deal is actually pretty good. We wanted to get Iran to stop, and they stopped. How often has Trump done what he set out to do as president? Besides tear the country apart, that is.

There is a decent chance Trump won't kill the deal. The benefits from killing the deal are negligible, and the costs would be considerable. But Trump is in a lot of trouble, and this is something the war lovers want, so they might get it.
 
"At the same time, China wants to maintain and expand its influence over the North Korean regime, which recent events demonstrate that it still has. A détente between the North and South would also give China a chance to drive a wedge between Washington and Seoul..."




What China wants from North Korea | Asia Times
 
Today is VE Day. A day where the war in Europe ended, and we started the long slog towards rebuilding Europe.

One of the things that came out of that was NATO.

If Trump kills the nuke deal with Iran, our allies (which is to also say NATO) will be seriously pissed. If Iran is smart, and they don't restart their nuke program, Europe will side with Iran and will give us the cold shoulder.

It will be another major blow to the transatlantic partnership that has kept that part of the world relatively stable since the end of WW2.

It will also undermine our efforts to get North Korea to end it's nuclear program, and improve China's position to create a situation that ignores the nuclear program, while drawing both Koreas into it's arms.

You could argue that China's approach is a good thing; and it might be. But crude dictatorships like NK don't last forever, and when they collapse it's often quite messy. Which means the mess could get quite nuclear.

Remove the propaganda, and the nuke deal is actually pretty good. We wanted to get Iran to stop, and they stopped. How often has Trump done what he set out to do as president? Besides tear the country apart, that is.

There is a decent chance Trump won't kill the deal. The benefits from killing the deal are negligible, and the costs would be considerable. But Trump is in a lot of trouble, and this is something the war lovers want, so they might get it.

NATO is all bark and no bite, the proof was when NATO let Russia take its neighbors oil fields.
 
NATO is all bark and no bite, the proof was when NATO let Russia take its neighbors oil fields.

Europe is cautious, understandably so.

But it does act as a counterbalance to Putin's ambitions. It may not be perfect, but that doesn't mean it's useless.
 
Europe is cautious, understandably so.

But it does act as a counterbalance to Putin's ambitions. It may not be perfect, but that doesn't mean it's useless.

I never said NATO was useless, only that they need to do more than talk tough. That counter balance did nothing to stop Russia going into a sovereign country with tanks.
 
I never said NATO was useless, only that they need to do more than talk tough. That counter balance did nothing to stop Russia going into a sovereign country with tanks.

Russia freaks out when it sees an army on it's border. There's a lot of history behind that.

So while you have a point, and we shouldn't have promised what we weren't going to deliver, we had backed ourselves into a dangerous position.

They didn't want to risk a war.

Also, the deal was made before the West's relationship with the West soured.
 
Today is VE Day. A day where the war in Europe ended, and we started the long slog towards rebuilding Europe.

One of the things that came out of that was NATO.

If Trump kills the nuke deal with Iran, our allies (which is to also say NATO) will be seriously pissed. If Iran is smart, and they don't restart their nuke program, Europe will side with Iran and will give us the cold shoulder.

It will be another major blow to the transatlantic partnership that has kept that part of the world relatively stable since the end of WW2.

It will also undermine our efforts to get North Korea to end it's nuclear program, and improve China's position to create a situation that ignores the nuclear program, while drawing both Koreas into it's arms.

You could argue that China's approach is a good thing; and it might be. But crude dictatorships like NK don't last forever, and when they collapse it's often quite messy. Which means the mess could get quite nuclear.

Remove the propaganda, and the nuke deal is actually pretty good. We wanted to get Iran to stop, and they stopped. How often has Trump done what he set out to do as president? Besides tear the country apart, that is.

There is a decent chance Trump won't kill the deal. The benefits from killing the deal are negligible, and the costs would be considerable. But Trump is in a lot of trouble, and this is something the war lovers want, so they might get it.

You present a couple very big "if" statements that I don't necessarily agree with.

1. I don't think NATO being pissed is that big of a deal. NATO is pretty much a non-factor nowadays. A "paper tiger", if you will.

2. I don't think Iran will decline to restart their nuke program.

3. If, on the other hand, they don't restart Europe's shoulder doesn't affect us all that much. In any case, think about what Trump did to the world in regard to NK. If the US imposes such a sanction on the world in regard to Iran, EVERYONE will cave and do what the US wants.

Now, I could pick apart the rest of your post...you've made similar connections and conclusions that don't appear to be realistic to me...but I'll leave them be for the moment. I don't want to clutter things with too many issues.
 
"At the same time, China wants to maintain and expand its influence over the North Korean regime, which recent events demonstrate that it still has. A détente between the North and South would also give China a chance to drive a wedge between Washington and Seoul..."




What China wants from North Korea | Asia Times

This article makes the same mistake you do: Ignoring the actions Trump has taken that have directly led to the current situation. It makes assumptions and tries to work those assumptions into the current situation. It really isn't as complicated as they make it seem.
 
This article makes the same mistake you do: Ignoring the actions Trump has taken that have directly led to the current situation. It makes assumptions and tries to work those assumptions into the current situation. It really isn't as complicated as they make it seem.



Can you make a coherent case for your position?
 
You present a couple very big "if" statements that I don't necessarily agree with.

1. I don't think NATO being pissed is that big of a deal. NATO is pretty much a non-factor nowadays. A "paper tiger", if you will.

2. I don't think Iran will decline to restart their nuke program.

3. If, on the other hand, they don't restart Europe's shoulder doesn't affect us all that much. In any case, think about what Trump did to the world in regard to NK. If the US imposes such a sanction on the world in regard to Iran, EVERYONE will cave and do what the US wants.

Now, I could pick apart the rest of your post...you've made similar connections and conclusions that don't appear to be realistic to me...but I'll leave them be for the moment. I don't want to clutter things with too many issues.

1) By itself, but placed in the context of Trump's other actions that have damaged our alliances, it all adds up.

2) That is the wild card. But if I were to guess, I'd bet they won't.

3) There are real limits to how much we can bully allies. Our influence is in decline.
 
Can you make a coherent case for your position?

What part of "Ignoring the actions Trump has taken that have directly led to the current situation. It makes assumptions and tries to work those assumptions into the current situation. It really isn't as complicated as they make it seem." do you not understand?
 
What part of "Ignoring the actions Trump has taken that have directly led to the current situation. It makes assumptions and tries to work those assumptions into the current situation. It really isn't as complicated as they make it seem." do you not understand?

All of it.

Eventually, I will understand 'where you are coming from', and can better interpret the things you say.

But, at the moment, I don't understand what you are saying. That isn't to imply anything, I just don't get it.
 
1) By itself, but placed in the context of Trump's other actions that have damaged our alliances, it all adds up.

2) That is the wild card. But if I were to guess, I'd bet they won't.

3) There are real limits to how much we can bully allies. Our influence is in decline.

That's the thing about alliances...everyone has their say and you work out the details, if possible. In the end, we'll do what is best for our own country, which is more important and has priority over alliances.

We'll just have to wait and see what Iran does.

Setting economic consequences for actions or inactions isn't bullying.
 
All of it.

Eventually, I will understand 'where you are coming from', and can better interpret the things you say.

But, at the moment, I don't understand what you are saying. That isn't to imply anything, I just don't get it.

Okay. It seems clear that you aren't aware of what actions Trump has taken that led directly to the current situation. Perhaps you should bone up on that so we can move forward in our discussion.
 
That's the thing about alliances...everyone has their say and you work out the details, if possible. In the end, we'll do what is best for our own country, which is more important and has priority over alliances.

We'll just have to wait and see what Iran does.

Setting economic consequences for actions or inactions isn't bullying.

There are no upsides to killing the deal, and several downsides.

Getting that deal was a big deal. Once it's broken, our allies will have no interest whatsover in talking to us about a new deal, not with Trump, anyway.

These are allies, you can't keep pushing them around and keep them as allies. We used to have a lot more power, that was before President Cheney screwed things up. Even back then, there were limits to our influence over our allies, and they expected that relationship to have some reciprocity. Now, we have less influence, and less reciprocity. We are not all that far from them pushing back.

This is diplomatic suicide on the installment plan.
 
There are no upsides to killing the deal, and several downsides.

Getting that deal was a big deal. Once it's broken, our allies will have no interest whatsover in talking to us about a new deal, not with Trump, anyway.

These are allies, you can't keep pushing them around and keep them as allies. We used to have a lot more power, that was before President Cheney screwed things up. Even back then, there were limits to our influence over our allies, and they expected that relationship to have some reciprocity. Now, we have less influence, and less reciprocity. We are not all that far from them pushing back.

This is diplomatic suicide on the installment plan.

As I said, we'll do what's best for our own country. Our allies can make their own decisions. It is supremely dumbass to make a deal that hurts our own country. That's what Obama did. Trump will fix it.

Believe me, the world won't end if our allies don't agree with us.
 
As I said, we'll do what's best for our own country. Our allies can make their own decisions. It is supremely dumbass to make a deal that hurts our own country. That's what Obama did. Trump will fix it.

Believe me, the world won't end if our allies don't agree with us.

Just so you know, I became interested in the 1960s. I started reading Foreign Affairs Quarterly in the 70s.

I guess there is something to say for learning the hard way, I do feel sorry for the fate of the country.
 
1) By itself, but placed in the context of Trump's other actions that have damaged our alliances, it all adds up.

2) That is the wild card. But if I were to guess, I'd bet they won't.

3) There are real limits to how much we can bully allies. Our influence is in decline.

"President Hassan Rouhani said on Tuesday that Iran would remain committed to a multinational nuclear deal despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the 2015 agreement...

“I have ordered the foreign ministry to negotiate with the European countries, China and Russia in coming weeks. If at the end of this short period we conclude that we can fully benefit from the JCPOA with the cooperation of all countries, the deal would remain,” he added."
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ran-will-remain-in-nuclear-deal-idUSKBN1I92T7

"Karim Sadjadpour, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, warned: “By withdrawing from the JCPOA, Trump hastens the possibility of three disparate but similarly cataclysmic events: an Iranian war, an Iranian bomb or the implosion of the Iranian regime.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ump-withdraw-us-latest-news-nuclear-agreement

Looks like the crazy mullah lives on Pennsylvania Avenue these days.
 
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