Not You and I
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- Nov 21, 2015
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The media, pundits, experts have said that the recent North Korea's threat to fire four missiles to Guam is a bluff like they have always done so. They believe that the DPRK would not do it because they don't want the US's retaliation.
But is it really a bluff? I need you to help me figure this out. Currently, I feel like they will really do it. However, I need some extra information. Here are what I have gotten so far:
First of all, they are not going to attack Guam. They will fire the missiles to about 20km of Guam (I haven't checked whether this is international water or not yet, please help confirm), and I do not think they will be tipped with nuclear warheads too. It is just to embarrass the US by showing that it cannot defend its own people. Therefore, it is technically not a direct attack. Coming from an influential Chinese state media, China will not defend the DPRK only if it attacks the US first. But this is not an attack, at least in their perspective, so any US retaliation will prompt China to intervene. This is just an opinion from a newspaper, not the official statement from China, so it is not confirmed yet. But I will assume that it is safe to say China will come to help North Korea. They have interests in North Korea continue to being pro-China.
Secondly, Kim Jong Un has already promised his people nationwide on their state news media. If he backs down now, there will be a significant dent in his reputation in the country. However, knowing what it is like in North Korea, they might be able to call off the launch and lie to their own people that they did fire the missile. How feasible is that, I do not know because I am not an expert on propaganda.
Now here's what I am unsure of: What is in it for the DPRK to fire four missiles to off the coast of Guam? Is it really to just embarrass America? Is it really worth all these tension and sanctions? I have a couple of opinions regarding this, but not good enough to come to a conclusion.
If you don't think that North Korea is not going to fire their missiles, please offer your opinions too.
Extra Question:
- Is it legal to fire ballistic missiles over the airspace of other country without permission? In this case, it is going to be Japan.
But is it really a bluff? I need you to help me figure this out. Currently, I feel like they will really do it. However, I need some extra information. Here are what I have gotten so far:
First of all, they are not going to attack Guam. They will fire the missiles to about 20km of Guam (I haven't checked whether this is international water or not yet, please help confirm), and I do not think they will be tipped with nuclear warheads too. It is just to embarrass the US by showing that it cannot defend its own people. Therefore, it is technically not a direct attack. Coming from an influential Chinese state media, China will not defend the DPRK only if it attacks the US first. But this is not an attack, at least in their perspective, so any US retaliation will prompt China to intervene. This is just an opinion from a newspaper, not the official statement from China, so it is not confirmed yet. But I will assume that it is safe to say China will come to help North Korea. They have interests in North Korea continue to being pro-China.
Secondly, Kim Jong Un has already promised his people nationwide on their state news media. If he backs down now, there will be a significant dent in his reputation in the country. However, knowing what it is like in North Korea, they might be able to call off the launch and lie to their own people that they did fire the missile. How feasible is that, I do not know because I am not an expert on propaganda.
Now here's what I am unsure of: What is in it for the DPRK to fire four missiles to off the coast of Guam? Is it really to just embarrass America? Is it really worth all these tension and sanctions? I have a couple of opinions regarding this, but not good enough to come to a conclusion.
If you don't think that North Korea is not going to fire their missiles, please offer your opinions too.
Extra Question:
- Is it legal to fire ballistic missiles over the airspace of other country without permission? In this case, it is going to be Japan.
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