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A good article on Truman wrongly using nuclear weapons

Well, we could have gambled on it, or we could have dropped two bombs.

As I have implied, I can see why no-one would be wiling to take such a gamble, so I do not argue that an invasion of the main Japan was a realistic alternative.
 

Well, the particular numbers are without reference so it is not clear where they come from when the authors you cite mention the numbers. They perhaps include total casualties for both bombings.

Meanwhile from



The Journal of Military History, Volume 67, Number 3, July 2003, pp. 883-920 (Article)


Note on page 24 of the article or page 905 of the journal


33. Wesley F. Craven and James L. Cate, eds., The Pacific: Matterhorn to Nagasaki, June 1944–August 1945, vol. 5, in The Army Air Forces in World War II(Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1953), 723, state that 6,769 of 24,158 Japan- ese soldiers in Hiroshima were killed or missing. Somewhat lower numbers of Japan- ese army dead in Hiroshima but higher numbers of total Japanese dead (75,000–125,000) in Hiroshima appear in a September 1945 message from Brigadier General Thomas F. Farrell to Groves, quoted in Norris, Racing, 439. Numbers on A- bomb fatalities are necessarily rather “soft,” and the 70,000 number for total dead in Hiroshima is probably rather low, but the estimate of not more than 10 percent seems reasonably sound. A Groves-sponsored MED report placed the total Hiroshima number of fatalities at 66,000 while acknowledging “wide disagreements.” Manhat- tan Engineer District, The Atomic Bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki (Washin- gon: GPO, 1946), 18. Military historian Alvin Coox, in private discussions, concluded that the AAF official history’s numbers for Japanese military personnel killed in Hiroshima were generally reliable.
 
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The photo does not support what you say
The fact that it does not label the large military district does not change the fact that it was there. Look for the large black square north of the aimpoint. That is the moat around Hiroshima Castle. The military district surrounded this moat.


The large military facilities were well outside the destruction zone of the atomic bomb outside of the city. And we know that the aiming point was a bridge in the middle of the city.
Hiroshima Castle and the surrounding military district were pretty close to the T-shaped bridge.


They are relevant because they contradict your claim that the bombing campaign at the time of the target selection was new.
My claim is that the mass bombing that destroyed cities was new. The existence of earlier raids that didn’t destroy cities doesn’t contradict that.


And yes, industry ca have diferent applications. You can use steel, oil, rubber, bearings. in airplanes or in tanks or in ships.
That doesn’t change the fact that the Army Air Force was focused on destroying Japan’s air industry.


And regarding the military casualties in Hroshima.
First, no HQ of any kind has 20,000 soldiers.
Many of the soldiers were in the surrounding military district.


Hiroshima had a total of around 20,000 soldiers
Modern estimates are 43,000 soldiers.


and The Army Air Forces in World War II (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1953), 723, state that 6,769 of 24,158 Japanese soldiers in Hiroshima were killed or missing.
Modern estimates are 20,000 dead soldiers.
 
I point at these things not because they are related to my position (I do not imply that an invasion should have been an alternative to bombing) but to show that people should take with a grain of salt every estimate they read about the potential cost of an invasion. The problem with many of those estimates were that they were based on casualties in tiny islands when the Japanese Army did not even have to block the Americans from advancing towards an important strategic target. The Japanese commanders in many places chose to hide their forces in caves and wait for the Americans to come and get them. That was not going to be the case if the Americans were advancing towards important urban centers, such as towards Kyoto (their "Jerusalem") or towards Tokyo, the city of the "holy emperor" The Japanese armies in that case would need to stand their ground in a way that prohibited such advance and would be way more vulnerable to the American firepower, and there would be much more available space for the US forces to maneuver and exploit the firepower advantage.
Invading Japan would have required a a D-Day scale amphibious invasion of southern Kyushu, followed by a second D-Day scale amphibious invasion of the Tokyo plain.

Japan had 10,000 Kamikazes waiting to take out troop transport ships at Kyushu.
 
Invading Japan would have required a a D-Day scale amphibious invasion of southern Kyushu, followed by a second D-Day scale amphibious invasion of the Tokyo plain.

Japan had 10,000 Kamikazes waiting to take out troop transport ships at Kyushu.

Do you know how many casualties were inflicted on the US on D Day and during the rest of JUne, July and August up until the breakout?

Normandy was much more narrow front which is the reason why the Germans held that long. Also, the Germans were better equipped and had a more effective army. I will remind you that the same Russian Army which beat the Japanese in 1939 (again easily in Manchuria and Mongolia) was almost defeated by the Germans


Every invasion would have come after an intensive bombing ccampaign targeting tactical military objectives (instead of just cities) just like before Normandy when the allies systematiccally bombed aerodromes and radar stations across the whole France (so that the pattern of theirr attacks would not reveal the landing site).
What the Japanese would have at the time of the invasion would be very different from what they could manage to have at the time of the allied estimates.

And again, my points do not imply that I believe that the US would have light casualties during an invasion or that it should have opted for such an invasion.
 
The fact that it does not label the large military district does not change the fact that it was there. Look for the large black square north of the aimpoint. That is the moat around Hiroshima Castle. The military district surrounded this moat.

Actually, it does make a difference because your claim contradicts the availabe evidence. And just to be clear, I am not saying that there was no military installation in the center. There was a HQ but such installation cannot have 20,000 soldiers. If you have a basic understanding of the military, you should be aware that such HQ have a couple of hundred to a thousand at most officers, staff and soldiers for duties like guarding and attending the oficers' needs. And military units often use dwellings such as hotels for their HQs. Ike used a hotel in Paris for his HQ and the Germans did the same but this did not make Paris a "military target." And it does not even make sense to target so far in advance of the landing such installation when there were few bombs available and when such hq could be reorganized and replaced relatively fast.

Hiroshima Castle and the surrounding military district were pretty close to the T-shaped bridge.

The photo shows clearly that the BIG army installations are at the bottom corner far away from the aiming point, and one woud expect that if the primary concern of the planners was any military installation near the aiming point that they would note and analyze the effects of the bombing upon it in the Bomb-Damage-Assessment photo I posted.



My claim is that the mass bombing that destroyed cities was new. The existence of earlier raids that didn’t destroy cities doesn’t contradict that.

Your claim makes no sense because it contradicts the quotes I posted from the targeting committee which shows that one advantage of Hirroshima was that it was target which was left untouched from previous air raids and it would better demonstrate the effect of the atomic bomb.

That doesn’t change the fact that the Army Air Force was focused on destroying Japan’s air industry.

And the quotes from the damage assessment I posted show that the industry in Hiroshima of the most part had light casualties



Many of the soldiers were in the surrounding military district.

Every day, many soldiers are present in any city. This does not mean that they are staged in the middle of the city



Modern estimates are 43,000 soldiers.



Modern estimates are 20,000 dead soldiers.


Unsourced modern estimates is a sign of revisionism to support a particular view. There is no reason to accept such number and replace the one of the around 6,000 dead soldiers that came from different military committees which were tasked after the war to study the effects of the atomic bomb and interrogate the Japanese military.

Here is another reference from the official Army Air Forces History


The commander of the Second Army took charge of the city and organized relief activities, using military personnel (6,769 soldiers out of 24,158 were killed or missing),

The note shows the info is coming from the US Strategic Bombing Survey 70. USSBS, #3, pp. 6-9; #13, passim; #60, pp. 19-31.
Notice also the very precise numbers which is an indication that it likely comes from Japanese military strength reports submited by the units after the bombing
 
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When Hiroshima was selected as a target, the bombing campaign had just started and only a handful of cities had been attacked.

Nagasaki was immune to the large nighttime incendiary raids because it was difficult to find using the radar that was used to guide them.
Tell that to Tokyo.
 
As I have implied, I can see why no-one would be wiling to take such a gamble, so I do not argue that an invasion of the main Japan was a realistic alternative.
The Japanese military considered their fighters to be "Issen gorim" which meant "one yen, five rin", the cost of mailing a draft-notice postcard-less than a penny. Source, Flags of Our Fathers by James D. Bradley, Ron Powers. The casualty levels of fighting those kind of human waves and cannon fodder would have been astronomical.
 
Actually, it does make a difference because your claim contradicts the availabe evidence.
Here is a map that shows the large military district in the center of the city


There was a HQ but such installation cannot have 20,000 soldiers. If you have a basic understanding of the military, you should be aware that such HQ have a couple of hundred to a thousand at most officers, staff and soldiers for duties like guarding and attending the oficers' needs.
There was a large military district surrounding the headquarters. Many of the dead soldiers were fresh recruits waiting to be deployed to the beaches to resist our invasion.


And it does not even make sense to target so far in advance of the landing such installation when there were few bombs available and when such hq could be reorganized and replaced relatively fast.
I can’t think of a target that would do greater damage to the Japanese military


Your claim makes no sense because it contradicts the quotes I posted from the targeting committee which shows that one advantage of Hirroshima was that it was target which was left untouched from previous air raids and it would better demonstrate the effect of the atomic bomb.
I don’t perceive any contradiction between my claim and those quotes.


And the quotes from the damage assessment I posted show that the industry in Hiroshima of the most part had light casualties
Hiroshima was not an industrial target. The target at Hiroshima was the military base.

The industrial damage was inflicted at Nagasaki.


Every day, many soldiers are present in any city. This does not mean that they are staged in the middle of the city
Hiroshima had far more soldiers than would normally be in a city of that size. The closest American equivalent to WWII Hiroshima would be Norfolk Virginia with its huge naval base.


Unsourced modern estimates is a sign of revisionism to support a particular view.
The estimate of 43,000 soldiers is mentioned on page 713 of “The Making of the Atomic Bomb” by Richard Rhodes.

“Downfall” by Richard B Frank also mentions it, with this cite: “SRH-203, 11/12 Aug, No. 120.”

SRH-203 is mentioned here:

I’m not sure how to access SRH-203 itself however.


The estimate of 20,000 dead soldiers seems to have originated from Japanese peace sites about 15 years ago:


I am not sure where they got it from however, as they don’t offer much in the way of cites.


Do you know how many casualties were inflicted on the US on D Day and during the rest of JUne, July and August up until the breakout?
Not off hand, but I know we weren’t eager to repeat the experience in southern Kyushu, and then repeat it again on the Tokyo plain.


Normandy was much more narrow front which is the reason why the Germans held that long.
The beaches where we would have come ashore in southern Kyushu and the Tokyo plain were limited in area too.


Also, the Germans were better equipped and had a more effective army. I will remind you that the same Russian Army which beat the Japanese in 1939 (again easily in Manchuria and Mongolia) was almost defeated by the Germans
Japan had 10,000 kamikazes waiting to pounce on our troop transport ships when we invaded southern Kyushu.


Every invasion would have come after an intensive bombing ccampaign targeting tactical military objectives (instead of just cities) just like before Normandy
We were also going to start saving up atomic bombs and then using a bunch of them tactically just before the invasion.


And again, my points do not imply that I believe that the US would have light casualties during an invasion or that it should have opted for such an invasion.
We were going to invade if Japan had kept refusing to surrender.
 
The Japanese military considered their fighters to be "Issen gorim" which meant "one yen, five rin", the cost of mailing a draft-notice postcard-less than a penny. Source, Flags of Our Fathers by James D. Bradley, Ron Powers. The casualty levels of fighting those kind of human waves and cannon fodder would have been astronomical.

The Japanese military had the same mentality the it was crashed by the Soviets in Manchuria. Mentality without capabilities does not ewauete with astronomical casualties for their enemy. And we should never forget that there was always a tension between hardcores in the Japanese military who were willing to accept "astronomical" casualties and Japanese politicians (or the emperor) who were more willing to cave (as they did) when the Japanese armed forced proved incapable of defending Japanese civilians from the suffering of astronomical casualties.
 
Here is a map that shows the large military district in the center of the city


First, the map is from 1944, so it does not represent the situation in 1945 since many units moved out as the war progressed and things dispersed after Japanese cities became target of strategic attacks
Second, even if we accept that the situation remained unchanged, the point is that the US air force did not bother to bomb this installation and Hiroshima was not in the priority list. So, they saw in 1944 (as your map shows) these installations and decided that Hiroshima was not really an important target. So, claiming that suddenly such army installations justified the killing of dozens of thousands of civilians does not cut it.
Third, as I said, I know that there was a HQ at the time of the bombing and that no HQ has 20,000 people. And finally, the most credible evident we have do not talk about 20,000 casualties. And since you put the effort to show a map (even dated) I appreciate the effort, so I will post the map from the strategic survey which shows the HQ in the middle of the city but in a different post to keep this one relatively short




There was a large military district surrounding the headquarters. Many of the dead soldiers were fresh recruits waiting to be deployed to the beaches to resist our invasion.

Nope!

First the HQ at the time of your map did NOT exist! It was organized in mid April 1945 and was detected by signal intelligence units by the end of the moth. So, it is impossible to claim that the her was surrounded by the military district. I will provide evidence of what I say in subsequent post



I can’t think of a target that would do greater damage to the Japanese military

That HQ was not even in charge of the tactical situation in the island that was the object of the invasion. And destroying such hq months before the invasion is like arguing that leveling off Paris in February of 1944 would have given a military advantage for the June, 6th, 1944 invasion. It would not! Rommel and the armies which were tactically responsible for the German defense in Normandy did not direct the battle from Paris. They reported to their HQ in Paris (OB West).




The estimate of 43,000 soldiers is mentioned on page 713 of “The Making of the Atomic Bomb” by Richard Rhodes.

“Downfall” by Richard B Frank also mentions it, with this cite: “SRH-203, 11/12 Aug, No. 120.”

SRH-203 is mentioned here:



I’m not sure how to access SRH-203 itself however.

I will have a look because I think I have Downfall.


The estimate of 20,000 dead soldiers seems to have originated from Japanese peace sites about 15 years ago:


I am not sure where they got it from however, as they don’t offer much in the way of cites.

This sounds dubious and less trustworthy from the number of the 6,000 dead soldiers which appears in the strategic bomb survey that took place during the occupation



The beaches where we would have come ashore in southern Kyushu and the Tokyo plain were limited in area too.



Japan had 10,000 kamikazes waiting to pounce on our troop transport ships when we invaded southern Kyushu.

The beaches in Sicily and the ground in Italy was very restrictive too. This did not result in massive casualties among the allies. Again, in the case of a Japanese invasion, the allies would be free to outmaneuver Japan defense lines from the sea (as they tried to do with Anzio in Italy) and unlike the Germans, the Japanese did not have the panzer division to react fast to such threats.

Japan had 10,000 kamikazes at least three months Meroe the start of the invasion. The Germans could not flu but a handful of airplanes on d day because they were forced to abandon the airfields near Normandy under relentless TACTICAL targeting against their air force.

In subsequent posts I will present specific pages from my digital collection. If I miss to clarify something, notify me.
 
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First, let's start with the number of soldiers

...

The estimate of 43,000 soldiers is mentioned on page 713 of “The Making of the Atomic Bomb” by Richard Rhodes.

“Downfall” by Richard B Frank also mentions it, with this cite: “SRH-203, 11/12 Aug, No. 120.”

SRH-203 is mentioned here:
https://www.nsa.gov/Portals/70/docu...plemental-collection/43015/42292869133133.pdf

I’m not sure how to access SRH-203 itself however.

“The Making of the Atomic Bomb” by Richard Rhodes does not provide a reference for the number.

I did not see in “Downfall” Richard B Frank citing SRH-203
The amazon edition does not show such reference either (the number is mentioned on page 263)


And frankly, I do not know why SRH-203 should be referenced because according to your link, it includes special intelligence bulletins from
2 May 1943 - 31 May 1944.(https://www.nsa.gov/Portals/70/docu...plemental-collection/43015/42292869133133.pdf). So, if somehow this is the source of reference, then it applies to the situation more than a year before the atomic bombing.
 
The estimate of 20,000 dead soldiers seems to have originated from Japanese peace sites about 15 years ago:

I have already provided some numbers fro the official US history which cites the US Strategic Bombing Survey.

The US bombing survey is a set of about a hundred or so volumes from different agencies. I obviously, do not have all of them, but the ones I have mention the number of soldiers and number of military deaths in Hiroshima.

Here is one


Page 248

In the medical section of logistics we read

In the Japanese home islands, the persistent aerial bombardments killed and wounded a
negligible quantity of army personnel; however,
the atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and
Nagasaki were responsible for the greater part of army casualties.

The following figures include
total army personnel killed and wounded in the Japanese home
islands,exclusive of Nagasaki.

Killed 7,869
(Hiroshima,6,069) Wounded 5,993 (Hiroshima, 3,353)

Notice that it is slightly off from the figure in the official history but this can be explained by the fact that it comes from the medical numbers, so it excludes the number of missing persons which the official history adds in the total number out gives of dead and missing. [/QUOTE]

To put this in perspective, a single Japense division at full strength has about 20,000 people and there were many divisions already in Kiushu at the time of the atomic bombing. In fact, the total number of army units there by July was estimated to be around 400,000 if I remember correctly

Here is a TOE of a Japanese division with strength of 20,000 at the top left

Here is the estimated number of Japanese troops in Kiushu by July 1945


By the end of July 1945, sufficient information was available for the G-2 to make a preliminary estimate of the enemy strength in KYUSHU. In the Sixth Army G-2 estimate for the OLYMPIC operation, dated 1 Aug- ust 1945,it was estimated that 421,000 Japanese troops were on KYUSHU

So, the idea that the military installations in Hiroshima presented some important military target does not hold water. And it is interesting that even one of the sources you cite, mentions that the existence of the HQ was not mentioned in the bombing mission even though it was known to the US intelligence agencies. And if in fact you read the papers from the targeting committee, no HQ is mentioned either in its decision. They talk about "depots" As I said, it is like trying to argue that leveling off Paris a few months before the D Day (it had the German OB West Hq and sou other smaller HQs for the occupation forces in France) would have ben necessary to cripple the German armies in Normandy which were tactically controlled by the HQs in that area.
 
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Here is a map that shows the large military district in the center of the city


Now here is a map of Paris with some German military HQs before its liberation by the advancing allied armies which is related to my point that any city will have some sort of military installations. Have this image for reference when we discuss the military situation in Hiroshima.

dfvbfv.jpg


and here is the map with the significant military installations in Hiroshima. As I said, your map is from 1944 and many things changed since then as units were relocating.

Screenshot (12243).png

Notice the barracks way out fthe city center (obviously, this does not mean that there were not some barracks for small number of soldiers in the city who served for example the HQ. Notice also in combination to the picture below that the airflied, food supply, clothing, signals, ordnance depot and embarcation areas of the above map are ioutside the "normal expectable maximum radius of damage" with the exception of 1-2 installation which are partially within that radius.

.
ap_4508090422.jpg


The picture with the military installations is on page 71 from

Screenshot (12244).png
 
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The estimate of 43,000 soldiers is mentioned on page 713 of “The Making of the Atomic Bomb” by Richard Rhodes.

“Downfall” by Richard B Frank also mentions it, with this cite: “SRH-203, 11/12 Aug, No. 120.”


And as I promised in my previous response to your numbers, here is my source:

From the same document (The Effects of the Atomic Bomb on Hiroshima, Japan Vol I) which was published in May 1947

the stated number of military troops in Hiroshima is 24,158 for the army and 58 of the naval forces. And if you ask the natural question of why there is such a small number of naval personnel in a city which was used as a port to transfer troops, there is an answer in another report which mentions that because of the severe naval losses and the sea mining of the waters, Hiroshima was not acting anymore as a major center of naval transport. Now, I do have a lot of free time for the coming week but for the time being, I do not think it is necessary to track down the latest piece of info I am offering (effects of sea mining and naval casualties on the functioning of the port)

Page 68

Sorry for the poor resolution, but I had to change it to bypass the limitations of attaching the image. I think you can still clearly read the numbers at the bottom left column about 5 lines up from the bottom.

Webp.net-resizeimage.jpg
 
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Plus, it couldn't have been used on a more deserving population than the Imperial Japanese leaders and their emperor worshiping citizens.

I'm sorry that is disgusting . We are talking about farmers, children, old people, factory workers. People trying to survive a war

Disgusting, or just uncomfortable? Of course it is uncomfortable, but when we declared war on Japan and Germany our stated mission was "unconditional surrender", and in the case of the Imperial Japanese and their emperor worshiping people, to achieve that would require a near "total war" strategy, as those emperor worshipers were NOT going to surrender. Therefore all of those farmers, children, old people, and many more otherwise normal non combatants eventually could become military targets as a result of not only the Japanese imperial leadership, but also due to the TOTAL subservience AND loyalty to their emperor/god. It was the choice that nation and that culture made for themselves, don't blame us for their choice.

For some like yourself, I suppose it is far too easy to ignore the rape of Nanking, the Baatan death march, or the wholesale willful and celebrated SLAUGHTER by Imperial Japanese soldiers of the innocent 'farmers, old people, factory workers' in the Philippines, Manchuria, Shanghai, and Burma.

War is not a game of paddy-cakes, and Japan brought down THE THUNDER with their sneak attack on the United States 7 December 1941
 
Disgusting, or just uncomfortable? Of course it is uncomfortable, but when we declared war on Japan and Germany our stated mission was "unconditional surrender", and in the case of the Imperial Japanese and their emperor worshiping people, to achieve that would require a near "total war" strategy, as those emperor worshipers were NOT going to surrender. Therefore all of those farmers, children, old people, and many more otherwise normal non combatants eventually could become military targets as a result of not only the Japanese imperial leadership, but also due to the TOTAL subservience AND loyalty to their emperor/god. It was the choice that nation and that culture made for themselves, don't blame us for their choice.

For some like yourself, I suppose it is far too easy to ignore the rape of Nanking, the Baatan death march, or the wholesale willful and celebrated SLAUGHTER by Imperial Japanese soldiers of the innocent 'farmers, old people, factory workers' in the Philippines, Manchuria, Shanghai, and Burma.

War is not a game of paddy-cakes, and Japan brought down THE THUNDER with their sneak attack on the United States 7 December 1941
No its disgusting. In august 1945 it was over. We were kicking a damm near dead dog. Conditional surrender would have saved lives on both sides. And hell....we gave them the one condition they wanted anyway
 
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