Had Germany waited to invade Poland

What if Germany had waited to invade Poland and gone after Russia through Romania, Hungary and Czechoslovakia instead? Avoid a two front war. Bypass Poland and take out Russia and then prepare to deal with France and England. Take Poland then. France would still not have been ready to deal with Germany although England would have been, but in their isolation if Germany could have still defeated France not much would have changed... EXCEPT Russia would have bee out.

Bodhisattva said:

What if Germany had waited to invade Poland and gone after Russia through Romania, Hungary and Czechoslovakia instead? Avoid a two front war. Bypass Poland and take out Russia and then prepare to deal with France and England. Take Poland then. France would still not have been ready to deal with Germany although England would have been, but in their isolation if Germany could have still defeated France not much would have changed... EXCEPT Russia would have bee out.

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It is difficult to say.

Your idea doesn't really work though, you have to take into account European Topography, look very closely at the countries you're suggesting the Germans traverse in order to invade the Soviet Union.



First off, let's analyse what actually happened when the Germans invaded the Soviet Union, Soviet Intelligence knew about the German Buildup, but Stalin didn't believe Hitler would actually break their pact and ordered nothing be done along the frontier to offend Hitler.

Even in the first hours of the invasion, he refused to believe it was real and subsequently apparently suffered a nervous breakdown not long after accepting the truth. But all this is with the benefit of hindsight and wouldn't really occur to a German Military Planner.

Had the Germans attempted to traverse the Carpathian Mountain Range in order to not invade Poland... This would have given ample time for everyone to understand what was going on.

German Military Leaders thought Hitlers plan to invade the Soviet Union was pretty damned insane... But they knew if they were going to have any hope of pulling it off, they needed to deliver a fast and effective knockout blow or else Winter would set in and they would be unequivocally ****ed and the Soviets superior numbers would grind them down.

The flat plains of Poland were the only way one could invade Russia effectively because of the way the Panzercorp operated.

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The entire campaign was a simple question, could the Germans superior tactics, technology and element of surprise, deliver the knockout blow against Stalin before his superior numbers could grind down the German war machine.

And because of many, many factors... Too many to list here the latter turned out to be true.



On the question of England and the British Isles overall, I recently watched a very interesting video I'll link here, essentially it details that in fact, the Germans NEVER had the capacity to invade the British Isles, the Kriegsmarine would have just never had what it took to pull it off.



Feel free to fire back, I LOVE THIS STUFF.

Jetboogieman said:

It is difficult to say.

Your idea doesn't really work though, you have to take into account European Topography, look very closely at the countries you're suggesting the Germans traverse in order to invade the Soviet Union.

First off, let's analyse what actually happened when the Germans invaded the Soviet Union, Soviet Intelligence knew about the German Buildup, but Stalin didn't believe Hitler would actually break their pact and ordered nothing be done along the frontier to offend Hitler.

Even in the first hours of the invasion, he refused to believe it was real and subsequently apparently suffered a nervous breakdown not long after accepting the truth. But all this is with the benefit of hindsight and wouldn't really occur to a German Military Planner.

Had the Germans attempted to traverse the Carpathian Mountain Range in order to not invade Poland... This would have given ample time for everyone to understand what was going on.

German Military Leaders thought Hitlers plan to invade the Soviet Union was pretty damned insane... But they knew if they were going to have any hope of pulling it off, they needed to deliver a fast and effective knockout blow or else Winter would set in and they would be unequivocally ****ed and the Soviets superior numbers would grind them down.

The flat plains of Poland were the only way one could invade Russia effectively because of the way the Panzercorp operated.

[/IMG]

The entire campaign was a simple question, could the Germans superior tactics, technology and element of surprise, deliver the knockout blow against Stalin before his superior numbers could grind down the German war machine.

And because of many, many factors... Too many to list here the latter turned out to be true.



On the question of England and the British Isles overall, I recently watched a very interesting video I'll link here, essentially it details that in fact, the Germans NEVER had the capacity to invade the British Isles, the Kriegsmarine would have just never had what it took to pull it off.



Feel free to fire back, I LOVE THIS STUFF.

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I read a lot about this back in college but that was twenty five years ago... LOL

I think a feint could have been made for the Balkans... or an actual invasion like they ended up doing anyway. This would have diverted their armies to Romania and not caused much of a worry for the Russians. They could have then launched East and North with their Blitzkreig. The Ukraine has the same flattish rolling hills that are perfect for Panzers. Moscow and the oil fields would have been in just as easy a reach as from Poland. Leningrad was never a viable military target in the first place and simply bogged down the German Northern Front.

Even then though I am not sure Russia would really be out... just taking Moscow. The Germans would have had to go further to take out Russian industry which was eventually removed and set up in the East.


France and England would have done nothing. France didn't anyway but England would not have had a force in France at all. Germany, if they beat Russia, could have then turned to Poland.

Bodhisattva said:

What if Germany had waited to invade Poland and gone after Russia through Romania, Hungary and Czechoslovakia instead? Avoid a two front war. Bypass Poland and take out Russia and then prepare to deal with France and England. Take Poland then. France would still not have been ready to deal with Germany although England would have been, but in their isolation if Germany could have still defeated France not much would have changed... EXCEPT Russia would have bee out.

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Not workable. Balkan subservience to Hitler didn't really hit it's stride until Nazi victories in the west had imprinted the idea of the Wehrmacht's invincibility on the rest of the world. Convincing these states to support an invasion of the USSR in 1939 would've never worked.

Bodhisattva said:

What if Germany had waited to invade Poland and gone after Russia through Romania, Hungary and Czechoslovakia instead? Avoid a two front war. Bypass Poland and take out Russia and then prepare to deal with France and England. Take Poland then. France would still not have been ready to deal with Germany although England would have been, but in their isolation if Germany could have still defeated France not much would have changed... EXCEPT Russia would have bee out.

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Can't really mount a sustained attack on Russia without staging it from Poland. His mistake, IMO, was not charging straight to Moscow, instead of wasting years and millions of lives going after Leningrad and Stalingrad.

Jredbaron96 said:

Not workable. Balkan subservience to Hitler didn't really hit it's stride until Nazi victories in the west had imprinted the idea of the Wehrmacht's invincibility on the rest of the world. Convincing these states to support an invasion of the USSR in 1939 would've never worked.

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I never stated the Invasion had to be in 1939. In fact, Hitler should have waited another year or two and built up a better Air Force with strategic bombers. By November 1940 Romania was Allied to Germany and Czechoslovakia was under German control.

calamity said:

Can't really mount a sustained attack on Russia without staging it from Poland. His mistake, IMO, was not charging straight to Moscow, instead of wasting years and millions of lives going after Leningrad and Stalingrad.

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Absolutely... Hitler ****ed up the win. People act like they couldn't win. If they went straight for Moscow and waited on the oilfields and stayed away from political targets Russia would have been screwed.

Bodhisattva said:

I never stated the Invasion had to be in 1939. In fact, Hitler should have waited another year or two and built up a better Air Force with strategic bombers.

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Strategic bombers were not at all in line with German military philosophy at the time.

By November 1940 Romania was Allied to Germany and Czechoslovakia was under German control.

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Romanina, Hungary and Bulgaria all fell into the German sphere of influence largely because of the success Germany had against the Western Allies, which made the Third Reich seem unstoppable and the dominant power in Europe. This wouldn't have happened without invading Poland first.

Jetboogieman said:

It is difficult to say.

Your idea doesn't really work though, you have to take into account European Topography, look very closely at the countries you're suggesting the Germans traverse in order to invade the Soviet Union.

First off, let's analyse what actually happened when the Germans invaded the Soviet Union, Soviet Intelligence knew about the German Buildup, but Stalin didn't believe Hitler would actually break their pact and ordered nothing be done along the frontier to offend Hitler.

Even in the first hours of the invasion, he refused to believe it was real and subsequently apparently suffered a nervous breakdown not long after accepting the truth. But all this is with the benefit of hindsight and wouldn't really occur to a German Military Planner.

Had the Germans attempted to traverse the Carpathian Mountain Range in order to not invade Poland... This would have given ample time for everyone to understand what was going on.

German Military Leaders thought Hitlers plan to invade the Soviet Union was pretty damned insane... But they knew if they were going to have any hope of pulling it off, they needed to deliver a fast and effective knockout blow or else Winter would set in and they would be unequivocally ****ed and the Soviets superior numbers would grind them down.

The flat plains of Poland were the only way one could invade Russia effectively because of the way the Panzercorp operated.

[/IMG]

The entire campaign was a simple question, could the Germans superior tactics, technology and element of surprise, deliver the knockout blow against Stalin before his superior numbers could grind down the German war machine.

And because of many, many factors... Too many to list here the latter turned out to be true.



On the question of England and the British Isles overall, I recently watched a very interesting video I'll link here, essentially it details that in fact, the Germans NEVER had the capacity to invade the British Isles, the Kriegsmarine would have just never had what it took to pull it off.



Feel free to fire back, I LOVE THIS STUFF.

Click to expand...

6 weeks cost the Germans from reaching Moscow. The diversion into Yugoslavia, some say planned by OSS delayed Op Barbarossa. To create the need within Germany to attack Yugoslavia and slow the invasion timetable of Russia. No I do not have a link- recall reading it.
Remember that the Nazis were at Moscow gates by December.
Then add in Hitlers changing the Army's direction towards the Ukraine.
Took his eye off the ball- the ball being Moscow.
Stalin was aware that Japan planned to attack the US and was able to move additional troops west.

https://www.britannica.com/event/Operation-Barbarossa

Hitler and his generals had originally scheduled the invasion of the U.S.S.R. for mid-May 1941, but the unforeseen necessity of invading Yugoslavia and Greece in April of that year forced them to postpone the Soviet campaign to late June. The swiftness of Hitler’s Balkan victories enabled him to keep to this revised timetable, but the five weeks’ delay shortened the time for carrying out the invasion of the U.S.S.R. and was to prove the more serious because in 1941 the Russian winter would arrive earlier than usual. Nevertheless, Hitler and the heads of the Oberkommando des Heeres (OKH, or German Army High Command)—namely, the army commander in chief, Walther von Brauchitsch, and the army general staff chief, Franz Halder—were convinced that the Red Army could be defeated in two or three months and that by the end of October the Germans would have conquered the whole European part of Russia and Ukraine west of a line stretching from Arkhangelsk (Archangel) to Astrakhan. The invasion of the Soviet Union was originally given the code name Operation Fritz, but as preparations began, Hitler renamed it Operation Barbarossa, after Holy Roman emperor Frederick Barbarossa (reigned 1152–90), who sought to establish German predominance in Europe.

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JANFU said:

6 weeks cost the Germans from reaching Moscow. The diversion into Yugoslavia, some say planned by OSS delayed Op Barbarossa. To create the need within Germany to attack Yugoslavia and slow the invasion timetable of Russia. No I do not have a link- recall reading it.
Remember that the Nazis were at Moscow gates by December.
Then add in Hitlers changing the Army's direction towards the Ukraine.
Took his eye off the ball- the ball being Moscow.
Stalin was aware that Japan planned to attack the US and was able to move additional troops west.

https://www.britannica.com/event/Operation-Barbarossa

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Oh yeah the delay in invasion was a big issue, but ultimately that's a massive other discussion in and of itself, as to the question of where one should invade the Soviet Union from, Poland is the only answer.

But yeah, there's a much bigger discussion about the series of strategic blunders that lead the Germans to fall short of Moscow, the list is immeasurable but it really is down to Hitler being a dumbass.

JANFU said:

Then add in Hitlers changing the Army's direction towards the Ukraine.

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Not taking Kiev would've likely ended in a disaster for the Germans, on par with Stalingrad.

Jredbaron96 said:

Not taking Kiev would've likely ended in a disaster for the Germans, on par with Stalingrad.

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IMHO Moscow was the goal. That fell, Stalin was toasted.

Jredbaron96 said:

Strategic bombers were not at all in line with German military philosophy at the time.

They weren't but might have become so had they thought of adding that dimension to their arsenal with the out look of a longer protracted war against Russian industrial centers.

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Romanina, Hungary and Bulgaria all fell into the German sphere of influence largely because of the success Germany had against the Western Allies, which made the Third Reich seem unstoppable and the dominant power in Europe. This wouldn't have happened without invading Poland first.

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Correct but Hitler had already been able to cede entire nations at that point and France and England were not going to war to protect Romania. Germany would most likely have just strolled across the border in force. Besides. politically Romania was at a tipping point and was beginning to lean towards fascism.

In my scenario the whole thing has to be rethought.

JANFU said:

IMHO Moscow was the goal. That fell, Stalin was toasted.

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The Wehrmacht didn't have the capacity to capture Moscow with the resources it was given at the onset of Barbarossa. Even had they captured Moscow, it just would've been an early showing of Stalingrad.

Bodhisattva said:

Correct but Hitler had already been able to cede entire nations at that point and France and England were not going to war to protect Romania. Germany would most likely have just strolled across the border in force. Besides. politically Romania was at a tipping point and was beginning to lean towards fascism.

In my scenario the whole thing has to be rethought.

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Let's handwave all that and for the sake of argument say all the necessary countries for whatever reason agree to allow the Germans passage.

Even so, the operation will be a failure. The Germans have shortened their front to what is basically the Carpathian Mountains, a narrow, rugged band of terrain illsuited towards large scale offensive operations. With the northern roadnetwork undamaged and the enemy invasion confined to a relatively small frontier, the Soviets will likely inflict a serious defeat on the Germans far ahead of schedule. They'll still likely suffer tremendous losses, but not nearly as bad as Barbarossa.

JANFU said:

6 weeks cost the Germans from reaching Moscow. The diversion into Yugoslavia, some say planned by OSS delayed Op Barbarossa. To create the need within Germany to attack Yugoslavia and slow the invasion timetable of Russia. No I do not have a link- recall reading it.
Remember that the Nazis were at Moscow gates by December.
Then add in Hitlers changing the Army's direction towards the Ukraine.
Took his eye off the ball- the ball being Moscow.
Stalin was aware that Japan planned to attack the US and was able to move additional troops west.

https://www.britannica.com/event/Operation-Barbarossa

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Exactly... it was the British reinforcing Greece after Italy's failed invasion and Hitler's worry that the British would bomb Romanian oil fields prompted Germany to invade Yugoslavia and then Greece. That six week delay cost Germany the war, in my opinion.

Jredbaron96 said:

Let's handwave all that and for the sake of argument say all the necessary countries for whatever reason agree to allow the Germans passage.

Even so, the operation will be a failure. The Germans have shortened their front to what is basically the Carpathian Mountains, a narrow, rugged band of terrain illsuited towards large scale offensive operations. With the northern roadnetwork undamaged and the enemy invasion confined to a relatively small frontier, the Soviets will likely inflict a serious defeat on the Germans far ahead of schedule. They'll still likely suffer tremendous losses, but not nearly as bad as Barbarossa.

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The mountains are not on the border... which is flat and flows directly into the Ukraine. The issue with Russia was that they didn't have a road network. The German's could have easily Blitzkrieged their way East and North across Russia in spectacular fashion just like the invasion from Poland did. You are also discounting the Germans ingenuity. Arden Forest... all I am saying.

Jredbaron96 said:

The Wehrmacht didn't have the capacity to capture Moscow with the resources it was given at the onset of Barbarossa. Even had they captured Moscow, it just would've been an early showing of Stalingrad.

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IMHO that 6 week or so delay was the critical factor. If Moscow fell, so did Stalin.

Bodhisattva said:

The mountains are not on the border... which is flat and flows directly into the Ukraine.

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You need a very large staging area for an invasion force of 4 million troops.

The issue with Russia was that they didn't have a road network.

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The USSR did have a road work, a very extensive one, it was just concentrated in a very specific area, and in your instance very far away from where the Germans will invade from.

The German's could have easily Blitzkrieged their way East and North across Russia in spectacular fashion just like the invasion from Poland did.

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Now they wouldn't. Barbarossa exposed the very real and serious flaws with German military doctrine.

You are also discounting the Germans ingenuity. Arden Forest... all I am saying.

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Too bad European Russia is a gigantic flat steppe.

JANFU said:

IMHO that 6 week or so delay was the critical factor. If Moscow fell, so did Stalin.

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No it wouldn't have. Any sooner and the Germans are dealing with Soviet divisions that still have most of their equipment. Attack sooner before the winter sets in and the Soviets can move their reinforcements in even sooner. It was the ten reserve field armies that stopped the Germans outside of Moscow, not the cold.

Jredbaron96 said:

You need a very large staging area for an invasion force of 4 million troops.

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Look at the map. You have to also include Moldova. It was independent prior to the Molotov-Ribbentrop agreement and was ceded to Russia. Without that agreement, without invading Poland first, Moldova still would have been there making a HUGE area to stage 4 million men, along with Eastern Romania which is already probably big enough...

The USSR did have a road work, a very extensive one, it was just concentrated in a very specific area, and in your instance very far away from where the Germans will invade from.

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I go off what I see and hear from the History Channel on this one. They repeatedly talk about a lack of a modern road network. How the Germans were basically a rolling dirt cloud because of the dirt roads and fields. that is all I see when I watch their video's on the invasion. Dirt. Everywhere. Almost no modern roads at all.

Now they wouldn't. Barbarossa exposed the very real and serious flaws with German military doctrine.

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What was that because from what I can tell it was Hitler screwing with things that messed up a pretty sure fire victory... had they not delayed in the Balkans and not shifted from Moscow.

Too bad European Russia is a gigantic flat steppe.

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You argued that the mountains would hinder them... well, the forest didn't. Logistically your claim that they would have been hindered is just an opinion.

Bodhisattva said:

Look at the map. You have to also include Moldova. It was independent prior to the Molotov-Ribbentrop agreement and was ceded to Russia. Without that agreement, without invading Poland first, Moldova still would have been there making a HUGE area to stage 4 million men, along with Eastern Romania which is already probably big enough...

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Except no. Massing 4 million men into a single front along a single border just makes a huge salient that can easily be counter attacked and contained. The whole initial success of Barbarossa was because it overwhelmed all major military commands the Red Army had along the entire frontier, preventing any real local or large scale counterattack until the winter.

I go off what I see and hear from the History Channel on this one. They repeatedly talk about a lack of a modern road network. How the Germans were basically a rolling dirt cloud because of the dirt roads and fields. that is all I see when I watch their video's on the invasion. Dirt. Everywhere. Almost no modern roads at all.

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The History channel is garbage and has been for a while now.

What was that because from what I can tell it was Hitler screwing with things that messed up a pretty sure fire victory... had they not delayed in the Balkans and not shifted from Moscow.

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Absolutely not. The entire Operation was a gigantic cluster**** that was pretty much screwed from the get go. There were a few occasions where had a strategic shift been undertaken, the Nazis might've won, but those are neither realistic nor plausible.

You argued that the mountains would hinder them... well, the forest didn't. Logistically your claim that they would have been hindered is just an opinion.

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No, it's not, and I'll explain even further in the next post since there's a word limit for these things.

Jredbaron96 said:

No it wouldn't have. Any sooner and the Germans are dealing with Soviet divisions that still have most of their equipment. Attack sooner before the winter sets in and the Soviets can move their reinforcements in even sooner. It was the ten reserve field armies that stopped the Germans outside of Moscow, not the cold.

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The Battle of Moscow took place between October 1941 and January 1942.

The Russian Reserve Armies were not formed until April-June of 1942.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Soviet_armies#Reserve_armies

The Germans were worn down before reaching Moscow due to equipment failure. Half of their mechanized units were faltering and the men were exhausted and it was the Winter that stopped them. Once they were stopped the Russians counter attacked. This was extremely effective and all three German armies were almost surrounded and defeated. It was the Winter and the exhaustion of the German Army that saved Moscow.

Even though the Russians did create defensive rings and employ civilians to defend the city the Germans were not able to continue the attack. Those six weeks were devasting to the Germans. The Russians prior to Winter were seriously getting their asses kicked. Six more weeks and it would have been over.

Jredbaron96 said:

Except no. Massing 4 million men into a single front along a single border just makes a huge salient that can easily be counter attacked and contained. The whole initial success of Barbarossa was because it overwhelmed all major military commands the Red Army had along the entire frontier, preventing any real local or large scale counterattack until the winter.

Absolutely not. The entire Operation was a gigantic cluster**** that was pretty much screwed from the get go. There were a few occasions where had a strategic shift been undertaken, the Nazis might've won, but those are neither realistic nor plausible.





No, it's not, and I'll explain even further in the next post since there's a word limit for these things.

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You basically think that there is no way that the Germans could have won... I disagree.

The History channel is garbage and has been for a while now.

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Not at all... the Channel might play some reality type shows but the actual History component is very good. When I see video of the Germans rolling in aa huge dirt cloud and read letters from officers talking about the vast country side with no modern roads I believe that. What do you have to counter that.. .because so far you are just saying, "nuh-uh".

Except no. Massing 4 million men into a single front along a single border just makes a huge salient that can easily be counter attacked and contained. The whole initial success of Barbarossa was because it overwhelmed all major military commands the Red Army had along the entire frontier, preventing any real local or large scale counterattack until the winter.

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A massive spear tip invasion worked in the West and could easily have in the East. You say why the original worked as an argument as to why this other avenue can't work. Faulty reasoning. They could have exploded through a small front and over whelmed a single army before a series of massive pincer movements could have been employed to due what they already had shown the could do with ease and at will... shock and awe the Soviets and then kill them all. Six more weeks would have devastated the Russians.

Bodhisattva said:

The Battle of Moscow took place between October 1941 and January 1942.

The Russian Reserve Armies were not formed until April-June of 1942.

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Not the Reserve Armies for STAVKA, the reserve Front of the Battle of Moscow commanded by Marshal Budyonny, consisting of the 24th, 31st, 32nd, 33rd, 43rd, 49th Armies, and the Bryansk Front consisting of the 3rd, 13th, 50th Armies and Ermakov's Operational Group.