Sorry to barge in, I was surfing thru posts yesterday and found an issue with your above post. According to my history lessons, few B-29 Superfortresses operated in the ETO making them hard for the Germans to bring down. The B-29 was primarily used as a long range bomber that could cover the long distance found in the Pacific Theater.
The B-29 was used almost exclusively in the PTO. And yes, losses were light because of that when compared to the ETO, but that does not mean there were not any.
Out of 315 B-29 missions in the Pacific in WWII, 279 were lost to enemy action, a loss rate of around .9%. Now this is much lower than in the ETO, where the loss rate was closer to 3%. But you also have to consider the differences in terrain.
In Europe, most of the flights were over land. Where the chance of detection is much higher, and significantly more enemy airfields and gun emplacements were to be found. In the PTO, there was rarely any resistance met until close to the target.
But expand the terrain, and you will have significantly higher casualties. Do not think that the B-29 was any safer of an aircraft for crews to fly, or that it was any more invulnerable. It simply flew most of it's missions over open water. Flying over enemy occupied territory would have increased the chances of failure significantly. Remember, the USSR was not a beaten enemy in June 1945.
And what would be the odds of a small number of aircraft making it all the way to the target, as compared to say Japan where they routinely ignored such small numbers (by that stage a recon flight was not worth the effort of attacking, they saved their resources for bomber raids). This would not have been the case in attacking the USSR (unless we were intending an unannounced attack).
Not really. There would still be some conflict between neighbors--- for example, Azerbaijan and Armenia--- but the idea that it would have descended into Yugoslavia-level genocide- especially when it didn't historically--- is simply incorrect.
And you have to remember that the USSR was composed of states which really didnt want to be a part of the USSR and had no reason to join the Russians on their "capitalist exterminatation crusade."
I never said it would descend into the kind of genocide we saw from the fall of Yugoslavia. But like that nation, it would have mostly broken up into it's former components. However, the bloodshed would likely have been lower since the level of animosity in most of the USSR was not the same as was seen in Marshal Tito's nation.
But you are also forgetting that we are talking 25 years after the Revolution. An entire generation had been raised under the banner of the USSR, and a great many were true believers. And without a provocation, that would have set fires burning in those who did not care much prior to that.
Heck, look at the US in WWII. Most did not care about the atrocities in China and other parts of the Pacific prior to 7 December. Most Americans wanted nothing to do with the European War, and most did not care what happened to the Yellow Men half a world away. But attack them, and it became deeply personal.
So yes, they would have formed a "crusade" to go after us, for attacking them unprovoked. And it would have deepened their paranoia even more.