Deuce said:
Yes, there were revisions after this report was published.
Quite right,
HERE is a report from March 18th the latest before the bill was signed by the President. Title threw me off originally; bill going Senate -> House -> Senate means a 'Reconciliation Act'. [1]
The major change from the report I first linked to is the delay in the "Cadillac plan tax" 'till 2018. (Line item 1) There are other small changes, but the quoted items from the OP are still the proper figures.
Clicking through the OP Examiner article to "The Hill" post, they report this change in medical expense deduction will affect ~15 Million taxpayers. "
Once the law is fully implemented in 2019, the JCT estimates the deduction limitation will affect 14.8 million taxpayers — 14.7 million of them will earn less than $200,000 a year." [2] While the incidence of the taxes aren't in the report I link to, seeing as their other numbers are correct I find no reason to doubt the reporting. Given the 138 million taxpayers in the US [3], that's a little over 10% of the filers.
There's another $19 billion or so over 10 years in alterations to HSA type accounts. (Line items 3, 4, and 5) [1]
The infamous excise tax on tanning salons nets $2.7 billion over 10 years. (Line item 17) [1]
Again, I didn't find analysis of incidence but those are far from limited to "the rich". Also, notably absent is the "penalty" on not having insurance. I don't know if the questionable "enforcement" of that penalty is a factor. [4]
Some of the corporate taxes may pass through to individuals. Taxes such as the fee on health insurance providers and the excise tax on medical devices will likely wind their way to individuals in the form of higher insurance premiums. If
all health insurance providers are taxed there's little to gain in terms of market share from being a hold out. If non-profit insurers are exempt from this fee then they have yet another cost advantage, and there is an incentive for for-profit insurers to not pass along the costs. Similarly excise taxes on medical devices will likely be passed on to doctors / hospitals and in turn onto patients, especially since there is increased reliance on third party payments for medical bills.
The health insurer fee nets $60 billion over 10 years. Really 5 years since it doesn't kick in until 2014. (Line item 10) [1]
The medical device tax nets $20 billion over 10 years. (Line item 9) [1]
Comparatively, "the rich" are directly targeted for $210 billion over 10 years. (Line item 15) [1] About half of the overall revenue. It will be interesting to see of the non-indexing survives or goes the way of the AMT.
hazlnut said:
When you have non-partisan analysis, let us know.
Not that you bothered to look the first time, but the JCT qualifies as non-partisan analysis.
J
[1]
JCX-16-10
[2]
JCT: Healthcare law to sock middle class with a $3.9 billion tax increase in 2019 - The Hill's On The Money
[3] [ame=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taxation_in_the_United_States]Taxation in the United States - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia[/ame]
[4]
The IRS commissioner explains how he'll make you buy health insurance. - By Timothy Noah - Slate Magazine