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Surviving the coming pandemic

ecofarm said:
When the flu goes through a cruise ship, do five people die?
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Alright - I did a quick Google and if you're speaking of The Diamond Princess, I found 700 of 3,000 persons onboard became infected, and 6 passed of 700 infected. That's a transmission rate of around 25%, and a fatality rate of 0.85% of the infected.

I'll accept your point. The fatality rate there was high - around 8-10X the rate for common influenza (0.1%). I can't comment on the transmission rate, beyond to say 25% of those onboard became infected.

If the numbers aboard that ship were representative, it seems to me that the virus is similar to the common flu but 8-10X more fatal. The fatality rate is concerning.

In comparison, the Spanish Flu of 1918 infected 25% of the world's population (same transmission rate as the Diamond Princess), and had a fatality rate of a little under 2%. So if we consider the difference in the level of healthcare then and now, and if the Diamond Princess numbers are representative, I might hazard a guess that the coronavirus has around the same physiological ramifications of the Spanish Flu. And yes, that's pretty serious. Not epochal, but serious enough no doubt.

(BTW - thanks for motivating me to research and run the numbers. I wasn't aware there were six fatalities onboard.)
 
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Chomsky said:
Alright - I did a quick Google and if you're speaking of The Diamond Princess, I found 700 of 3,000 persons onboard became infected, and 6 passed of 700 infected. That's a transmission rate of around 25%, and a fatality rate of 0.85% of the infected.

I'll accept your point. The fatality rate there was high - around 8-10X the rate for common influenza (0.1%). I can't comment on the transmission rate, beyond to say 25% of those onboard became infected.

If the numbers aboard that ship were representative, it seems to me that the virus is similar to the common flu but 8-10X more fatal. The fatality rate is concerning.

In comparison, the Spanish Flu of 1918 infected 25% of the world's population (same transmission rate as the Diamond Princess), and had a fatality rate of a little under 2%. So if we consider the difference in the level of healthcare then and now, and if the Diamond Princess numbers are representative, I might hazard a guess that the coronavirus has around the same physiological ramifications of the Spanish Flu. And yes, that's pretty serious. Not epochal, but serious enough no doubt.

(BTW - thanks for motivating me to research and run the numbers. I wasn't aware there were six fatalities onboard.)
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705 passengers have tested positive for COVID-19. There have also only been 10 passengers who have tested positive for COVID-19, then recovered.[3]
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Diamond Princess (ship) - Wikipedia
 
Hari Seldon said:
The only trouble with that is some people that were infected took a while to show symptoms. There are now a couple of people in CA that have contracted it and they can't figure out how. I agree wash your hands and be vigilant but someone could be contagious without showing symptoms.
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I totally support putting the entire state of California on quarantine. Nobody in or out.
 
Face masks are more effective to keep people from passing germs to others. Preventative measures include elbow bumps instead of hand shaking, cough/sneeze into arm, and wash hands frequently with soap (scrub 12 seconds).

Trump's attempts to suppress information regarding COVID-19 are not reassuring anyone.

Corona beer (one of my favorites) is seeing a drop in sales, just reminding me, people are idiots! Sitting this one out at home with plenty of Corona beer sounds like a good idea.
 
And now Oregon...
 
Drawdown said:
Or you could just wash your hands a lot and stay away from sickly people.
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With symptoms occurring 2 weeks after exposure? How would one know how they were exposed or from unknown origin?
 
Drawdown said:
I totally support putting the entire state of California on quarantine. Nobody in or out.
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Brilliant. I think 5 deferment's new wall should keep it out. No problem.
 
We will overcome!
 
Hari Seldon said:
Brilliant. I think 5 deferment's new wall should keep it out. No problem.
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And a moat with alligators. California will pay for it. They claim to pay for everything.
 
swing_voter said:
If you catch the virus

There's a 1 out of 50 chance you'll die. That's not horrible.

The people are dying are old people and people with pre-existing conditions.
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More like 1 in 200 - look at South Korea's death rate.
 
Drawdown said:
And a moat with alligators. California will pay for it. They claim to pay for everything.
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California, along with New York certainly subsidize plenty of other states when it comes to contributing to the Federal budget. I think South Carolina has the biggest difference between what it contributes and what it receives from the Federal Government.
 
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