Are CBO Health Care Projections too Flawed to Matter?

Jack Hays said:

In the health care debate each new CBO report has been treated as unchallengeable fact. Is that really justified? And what if it's not?...

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...the C.B.O. is hardly alone in its negative assessments of Republican health care plans. In fact, just about every group with knowledge of the issue has reached similar conclusions. In a joint letter, the two major insurance industry trade groups blasted the Cruz provision as “simply unworkable.” The American Academy of Actuaries says basically the same thing. AARP has condemned the bill, as has the American Medical Association.

Third, contrary to White House disinformation, the C.B.O. actually did a pretty good job of predicting the effects of the Affordable Care Act, especially when you bear in mind that the act was a leap into the unknown: We had very little experience of how an A.C.A.-type system would work.

True, the C.B.O. overestimated the number of people who would buy insurance on the exchanges the act created; but that was partly because it overestimated the number of employers who would drop coverage and send their workers to those exchanges. Overall gains in coverage have been reasonably well in line with what the C.B.O. projected — especially in states that expanded Medicaid and did their best to make the law work.

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MTAtech said:

Yes, CBO accuracy is justified, as Paul Krugman writes:

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Jack Hays said:

It looks to me like Krugman attempts to finesse, rather than address, the enrollment points raised by the authors.

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MTAtech said:

On the contrary. It seems to me that he outlined specifically how the GOP is being completely dishonest with their assertions about their bill.

Regarding the CBO's estimates, they are right on-line with what other analysis shows.

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Nickyjo said:

The solution is obvious. Join the rest of the world. Medicare for all. Case closed.

Twenty years from now (actually, probably more like five) people will wonder what all the shouting was about.

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