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The math used to calculate the chance of a flood in a given location over a period of time is straightforward.
If it's in a 100 year flood plane then the chance of a flood in a year is 1%. The chance of not having a flood is 99%. The chance of not having a flood in the next 70 years is 0.99^70 or 0.49. So the chance of a flood during that time is 51%.
In America, there have been 2 violent revolutions in the 360 years since the colonies were established, a 0.56% chance per year. So, in a period of 70 years the chance of a violent revolution is 32%.
This is actually a very low estimation. In most countries of the world the chance is much higher, and they may well be higher in the US now given the circumstances.
In 2010 Syria hosted a thriving tourist trade that accounted for a big part of their GDP. Most of them didn't see what was coming. You won't unless you have your eyes on the horizon.
What are the signs of an impending violent revolution to look for?
An increasingly polarized population.
Increasingly course and violent rhetoric in the public sphere.
Increasing demonization of the opposing camps: "deplorable", "diseased", "sick", "crazy", "evil", etc.
Coup rhetoric.
Dysfunctional governance.
An increasingly entrenched oligarchy
Violent protests in the streets by people wearing masks and dressed like the Italian Blackshirts.
There are more than 400 countries in the modern world that no longer exist. Do you think that the United States will last forever?
Here's another canary in the coal mine to consider: Getting ready for catastrophe is popular with some right wingers. It's also very popular in Silicon Valley, where magnates spend millions to own underground bunkers. It's also very popular in Hollywood. Something like 50% of Silicon Valley billionaires are into this.
So you have this elite class of people vehemently demanding the confiscation of firearms who are themselves arming up and outfitting fortresses. Time to buy another box of ammo. Clearly.
There's a long list of things one would want to have if he wanted to survive a violent upheaval. A rifle is clearly up at the top of that list.
So if asked why I would want to own an AR-15, I simply respond by saying "Why wouldn't you want to have one?" I mean, if you think you're likely to hurt someone with it or harm yourself then you shouldn't have it. But all any normal person has to do in the meantime is not shoot anyone with it. And it might come in very handy some day.
https://medium.com/@bjcampbell/the-...-of-the-tin-foil-hat-gun-prepper-15fce7d10437
If it's in a 100 year flood plane then the chance of a flood in a year is 1%. The chance of not having a flood is 99%. The chance of not having a flood in the next 70 years is 0.99^70 or 0.49. So the chance of a flood during that time is 51%.
In America, there have been 2 violent revolutions in the 360 years since the colonies were established, a 0.56% chance per year. So, in a period of 70 years the chance of a violent revolution is 32%.
This is actually a very low estimation. In most countries of the world the chance is much higher, and they may well be higher in the US now given the circumstances.
In 2010 Syria hosted a thriving tourist trade that accounted for a big part of their GDP. Most of them didn't see what was coming. You won't unless you have your eyes on the horizon.
What are the signs of an impending violent revolution to look for?
An increasingly polarized population.
Increasingly course and violent rhetoric in the public sphere.
Increasing demonization of the opposing camps: "deplorable", "diseased", "sick", "crazy", "evil", etc.
Coup rhetoric.
Dysfunctional governance.
An increasingly entrenched oligarchy
Violent protests in the streets by people wearing masks and dressed like the Italian Blackshirts.
There are more than 400 countries in the modern world that no longer exist. Do you think that the United States will last forever?
Here's another canary in the coal mine to consider: Getting ready for catastrophe is popular with some right wingers. It's also very popular in Silicon Valley, where magnates spend millions to own underground bunkers. It's also very popular in Hollywood. Something like 50% of Silicon Valley billionaires are into this.
So you have this elite class of people vehemently demanding the confiscation of firearms who are themselves arming up and outfitting fortresses. Time to buy another box of ammo. Clearly.
There's a long list of things one would want to have if he wanted to survive a violent upheaval. A rifle is clearly up at the top of that list.
So if asked why I would want to own an AR-15, I simply respond by saying "Why wouldn't you want to have one?" I mean, if you think you're likely to hurt someone with it or harm yourself then you shouldn't have it. But all any normal person has to do in the meantime is not shoot anyone with it. And it might come in very handy some day.
https://medium.com/@bjcampbell/the-...-of-the-tin-foil-hat-gun-prepper-15fce7d10437
