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Take Race Into Account, and the Case for Gun Control Falls Apart

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phattonez said:
Sorry I'm a little unclear about one detail. So are you saying that 0.6% of blacks were arrested in 2015 for property crimes? Am I reading that properly?
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No, the data says that the number of arrests of blacks for property crimes in 2015 equals 0.6% of the population. The data doesn't account for multiple arrests of the same person. Given that, the actual figure would be smaller.

Edit: the data also says that the number of arrests of whites for property crime is equal to 0.27% of the white population, or slightly less than half of the black rate. Note that the number of arrests doesn't necessarily equal the number of crimes committed or the number of criminals caught.
 
rocket88 said:
There's something to that argument, but I don't think the point of the thread is "Here"s some interesting social science."
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The point of this thread is that gun control doesn't seem to do anything, that there is no correlation between homicide and gun ownership rates. Rather, the apparent correlation is actually do to demographic differences.
 
Rucker61 said:
No, the data says that the number of arrests of blacks for property crimes in 2015 equals 0.6% of the population. The data doesn't account for multiple arrests of the same person. Given that, the actual figure would be smaller.

Edit: the data also says that the number of arrests of whites for property crime is equal to 0.27% of the white population, or slightly less than half of the black rate. Note that the number of arrests doesn't necessarily equal the number of crimes committed or the number of criminals caught.
Click to expand...

So the number of arrests of blacks for property crimes in 2015 equals 0.6% of the black population, right?

I typically add in the fact that this is basically a trend among young males (of any race), so that means about 1/4 of the population is basically responsible for all of it. Therefore, the number of arrest of young black men for property crimes in 2015 is about equal to 2.4% of the young black male population. That's pretty significant, and it's only property crime.
 
phattonez said:
So the number of arrests of blacks for property crimes in 2015 equals 0.6% of the black population, right?

I typically add in the fact that this is basically a trend among young males (of any race), so that means about 1/4 of the population is basically responsible for all of it. Therefore, the number of arrest of young black men for property crimes in 2015 is about equal to 2.4% of the young black male population. That's pretty significant, and it's only property crime.
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What makes the fact that at least 97.5% of a specific demographic aren't arrested significant?
 
Rucker61 said:
What makes the fact that at least 97.5% of a specific demographic aren't arrested significant?
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I didn't say that it wasn't. I just said that 2.4% is significant. And that's also an annual rate, so we're going a long way toward explaining why such a high proportion of black males see jail time in their lives.
 
Tigerace117 said:
Bull****, buddy. There's no such thing as "isolated stats". You knew full well what you were advocating. That's why you posted about how in an "all white Chicago" crime would supposedly decrease by 90% or some bull****. Just because you aren't willing to admit what you mean in the light of day doesn't mean we can't read between the lines. Nobody is fooled by your claim that it's "just statistics".
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Yes there is.
One can, and I did, posts the stats for any given Group.
This is really beneath debate.

Tigerace said:
And I'll give you a hint. You were whining that my list of a few of the more notorious crime lords of the Caucasian persuasion still wasn't "current" because they "hadn't shot anybody in the head in twenty years". Which, of course, shows a fundamental lack of understanding as to how crime families work. The boss orders hits; he doesn't personally conduct them. It's why he's the boss.
All you've gone is torpedo your own credibility, and the more you cling to your ethnic cleansing scheme, the less likely it is people' are going to listen to your fantasies.
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No, you were Irrelevantly WHINING with a Bizarro/Goofy list of Italian Historic Italian Mobsters, AS IF that had anything to do with the Current Crime RATES of various groups.

Tigerace said:
So. Figure it out yet?
I'll spell it out for you.
Even if Chicago was all white, there'd still be a ****-ton of violent crime, because there are a lot of white criminals.
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LOL
Whats "a ton"?
I Quantified the relative Rates of different groups.
"A Ton" is meaningless BS.. like all your posts.
 
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Tigerace117 said:
Well, yes. That's what I was talking about previously. mbig was talking about an all white Chicago, so I pointed out that even when the city didn't have very large populations of African Americans, at least comparatively to today's standards (there were some--- 40,000 in 1910, and an increasing amount after that) there was a still an high rate of crime.
And all of those stats help my point as well. Even if there was an "all white Chicago" crime would not go away.
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Yes, but the stats I posted were accurate.
ie, Murder would indeed mostly/90% "Go away".
See below.


Rucker61 said:
What makes the fact that at least 97.5% of a specific demographic aren't arrested significant?
Click to expand...
You've posting Misleading/Gibrish/pointless numbers throughout.


1. Oct 04, 2013
1 In 3 Black Males Will Go To Prison In Their Lifetime, Report Warns | The Huffington Post

2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistics_of_incarcerated_African-American_males
[.....] According to the NAACP, African Americans constitute nearly 1 million of the total 2.3 million incarcerated population, and have nearly six times the incarceration rate of whites.[4] A 2013 study confirmed that black men were much more likely to be arrested and incarcerated than white men, but also found that this disparity disappeared after accounting for self-reported violence and IQ.[5] An August 2013, Sentencing Project report on Racial Disparities in the United States Criminal Justice System, submitted to the United Nations, found that "one of every three black American males born today can expect to go to prison in his lifetime".[6]​

As far as Murders and Violent Crime, I already posted the stats.
A recent Trib story:

9/7/16
With 500 homicides in Chicago, time for African-Americans to get tough on crime - Chicago Tribune
A grim milestone: Chicago surpasses 2015 homicide toll
Chicago officially surpassed the homicide toll for all of last year, reaching over 500 in total. ..
Dahleen Glanto - Chicago Tribune

Over the Labor Day weekend, Chicago hit that tragic number: 500 homicides.

Nearly All of those killed were Black men, shot to death in alleys and on street corners by other Black men. It's time to have a talk with African-Americans.

It should be clear by now that no one is coming to our rescue. African-Americans have demanded that our police keep us safe. They can't. We have begged our elected officials to invest in our neighborhoods with jobs. They won't. We have lain down in the streets in protest, pleading for our men to stop killing each other. But they don't...​

90% of Chicago's Murders stands, as do my other stats.
Only 10% for a majority of the population is NOT "a ton."
 
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Rucker61 said:
I wasn't aware that gangster history was a prerequisite to gun ownership ;)



Have they ever had one?
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Apparently it is, seeing as "Warren" got his hands on one. Oh wait.....

Oh, they've had plenty. Probelm is that dumbasses keep popping up.
 
chuckiechan said:
I didn't know there was a gangster Mickey Spillane. You got me on that one.

And the Chicago stats like was just a convenience attachment for me.
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I've been reading a lot about American crime lately, so I was aware. I was vaguely aware that there was an author named Mickey Spillane as well, but only thought it an amusing coincidence.
 
phattonez said:
Portland Maine (83% white) has a crime index of 16 (safer than 16% of US cities).
Atlanta Georgia (37% white) has a crime index of 2 (safer than 2% of US cities).

See, I can play the anecdotal evidence game too.
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Ah, so you are playing the "let's compare a major city to a minor one and pretend they are the same" game.

Typical.
 
mbig said:
Yes there is.
One can, and I did, posts the stats for any given Group.
This is really beneath debate.

No, you were Irrelevantly WHINING with a Bizarro/Goofy list of Italian Historic Italian Mobsters, AS IF that had anything to do with the Current Crime RATES of various groups.

LOL
Whats "a ton"?
I Quantified the relative Rates of different groups.
"A Ton" is meaningless BS.. like all your posts.
Click to expand...

Just because you don't want to admit it doesn't mean it's not true buddy. Hate to break it to you.

You still don't get it. Unsuprising. Here, I spell it out Barney style for you: even if your dream of an all white Chicago did occur, crime would not disappear, because there is a multitude of other organized crime elements out there. In addition to your usual minor players.

Lol. No, you made a WAG because your dream will never come true. And that's what all your stats ultimately amount to. Wild Ass Guesses.
 
mbig said:
Yes there is.
One can, and I did, posts the stats for any given Group.
This is really beneath debate.

No, you were Irrelevantly WHINING with a Bizarro/Goofy list of Italian Historic Italian Mobsters, AS IF that had anything to do with the Current Crime RATES of various groups.

LOL
Whats "a ton"?
I Quantified the relative Rates of different groups.
"A Ton" is meaningless BS.. like all your posts.
Click to expand...
Tigerace117 said:
Just because you don't want to admit it doesn't mean it's not true buddy. Hate to break it to you.
You still don't get it. Unsuprising. Here, I spell it out Barney style for you: even if your dream of an all white Chicago did occur, crime would not disappear, because there is a multitude of other organized crime elements out there. In addition to your usual minor players.
Lol. No, you made a WAG because your dream will never come true. And that's what all your stats ultimately amount to. Wild Ass Guesses.
Click to expand...
You mean You got Everything Wrong so instead... you want to ascribe to me something I never said/meant.
You've been hammered throughout.
Oucher.
 
mbig to Tigerace117 and Rucker61 said:
Yes, but the stats I posted were accurate.
[to Tigerace117] ie, Murder would indeed mostly/90% "Go away".
See below.


[To Rucker61 re "2.4%"] You've posting Misleading/Gibrish/pointless numbers throughout.


1. Oct 04, 2013
1 In 3 Black Males Will Go To Prison In Their Lifetime, Report Warns | The Huffington Post

2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistics_of_incarcerated_African-American_males
[.....] According to the NAACP, African Americans constitute nearly 1 million of the total 2.3 million incarcerated population, and have nearly six times the incarceration rate of whites.[4] A 2013 study confirmed that black men were much more likely to be arrested and incarcerated than white men, but also found that this disparity disappeared after accounting for self-reported violence and IQ.[5] An August 2013, Sentencing Project report on Racial Disparities in the United States Criminal Justice System, submitted to the United Nations, found that "one of every three black American males born today can expect to go to prison in his lifetime".[6]​

[to Tigerace117]
As far as Murders and Violent Crime, I already posted the stats.
A recent Trib story:

9/7/16
With 500 homicides in Chicago, time for African-Americans to get tough on crime - Chicago Tribune
A grim milestone: Chicago surpasses 2015 homicide toll
Chicago officially surpassed the homicide toll for all of last year, reaching over 500 in total. ..
Dahleen Glanto - Chicago Tribune

Over the Labor Day weekend, Chicago hit that tragic number: 500 homicides.

Nearly All of those killed were Black men, shot to death in alleys and on street corners by other Black men. It's time to have a talk with African-Americans.

It should be clear by now that no one is coming to our rescue. African-Americans have demanded that our police keep us safe. They can't. We have begged our elected officials to invest in our neighborhoods with jobs. They won't. We have lain down in the streets in protest, pleading for our men to stop killing each other. But they don't...​

[to Tigerace117]
90% of Chicago's Murders stands, as do my other stats.
Only 10% for a majority of the population is NOT "a ton."
Click to expand...
Tigerace, (Rucker too) all those BS posts and NO REPLY to above!
Gameover
 
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rocket88 said:
3 posts in and we get borderline racist. Great job!
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Gonzo Rodeo said:
When they ignore data to make a racist point, yes.

Poverty is the cause of most violent crime, not melanin. This information is available in a plethora of studies beyond WordPress blogs.
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It's not poverty or race, it's culture. Unfortunately, we have race-oriented cultures in this country that have more influence than anything else. But ignoring the numbers and throwing out accusations of racism does nothing to help address this problem. All it does is create division where we need unity. It creates a victim mentality among some and anger at being falsely accused of being racist among others. Pointing out a race-based problem is NOT racism when it accurately defines a major contributing factor. Also, using gross numbers (X% of white people vs. Y% of black people) is DISHONEST. Look at the numbers per capita for an accurate representation (X%/1000 vs Y%/1000).
 
mbig said:
You mean You got Everything Wrong so instead... you want to ascribe to me something I never said/meant.
You've been hammered throughout.
Oucher.
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Look that. You can't come up with a coherent counter response, so you resort to shrieking "I win lol".

Which is completely inaccurate.
 
mbig said:
Tigerace, (Rucker too) all those BS posts and NO REPLY to above!
Gameover
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Once again, just because you shriek something doesn't make it true. I get that in lieu of facts you have to resort to patting yourself on the back, but it's just laughable at this point.
 
Tigerace117 said:
Once again, just because you shriek something doesn't make it true. I get that in lieu of facts you have to resort to patting yourself on the back, but it's just laughable at this point.
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So STILL no answers to getting 100% Rebutted on Everything.

So you've Dishonestly had to resort to calling "Documenting", "shrieking."
Try again
I ain't going away.
mbig said:
Yes, but the stats I posted were accurate.
ie, Murder would indeed mostly/90% "Go away".
See below.


You've posting Misleading/Gibrish/pointless numbers throughout.


1. Oct 04, 2013
1 In 3 Black Males Will Go To Prison In Their Lifetime, Report Warns | The Huffington Post

2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistics_of_incarcerated_African-American_males
[.....] According to the NAACP, African Americans constitute nearly 1 million of the total 2.3 million incarcerated population, and have nearly six times the incarceration rate of whites.[4] A 2013 study confirmed that black men were much more likely to be arrested and incarcerated than white men, but also found that this disparity disappeared after accounting for self-reported violence and IQ.[5] An August 2013, Sentencing Project report on Racial Disparities in the United States Criminal Justice System, submitted to the United Nations, found that "one of every three black American males born today can expect to go to prison in his lifetime".[6]​

As far as Murders and Violent Crime, I already posted the stats.
A recent Trib story:

9/7/16
With 500 homicides in Chicago, time for African-Americans to get tough on crime - Chicago Tribune
A grim milestone: Chicago surpasses 2015 homicide toll
Chicago officially surpassed the homicide toll for all of last year, reaching over 500 in total. ..
Dahleen Glanto - Chicago Tribune

Over the Labor Day weekend, Chicago hit that tragic number: 500 homicides.

Nearly All of those killed were Black men, shot to death in alleys and on street corners by other Black men. It's time to have a talk with African-Americans.

It should be clear by now that no one is coming to our rescue. African-Americans have demanded that our police keep us safe. They can't. We have begged our elected officials to invest in our neighborhoods with jobs. They won't. We have lain down in the streets in protest, pleading for our men to stop killing each other. But they don't...​

90% of Chicago's Murders stands, as do my other stats.
Only 10% for a majority of the population is NOT "a ton."
Click to expand...


EDIT to below and throughout:
NONE of Tigerace's posts contain any Stats, any rebuttal, anyThing.
Insinuating and empty last-wording Wipe-out's, one after another.
Board blight, not debate.
 
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mbig said:
So STILL no answers to getting 100% Rebutted on Everything.

You've Dishonestly had to resort to calling "Documenting", "shrieking."
Try again
I ain't going away.
Click to expand...

And yet more shrieking and wailing without actually.....rebutting anything. Does your back hurt from all the unjustified patting on you've been giving yourself?

You still have yet to prove that in your dream ethnically cleansed city that crime would be reduced.
 
americanwoman said:
Almost as bad as pit bulls, right?
Click to expand...

You make a point worthy of discussion.

Pit bulls and young black males are HIGHLY comparable.

Both have a reliable and LARGE cheering section.

Both kill and maim FAR out of proportion to their percentage of the population.

Large numbers of them are incarcerated and many have gotten the death penalty.

Both inexplicably get great sympathy and immunity from their transgressions from bleeding heart liberals (who, somehow twist logic and blame the victims and praise the perpetrators).

The excuses made for them are very similar.

"Oh, they were abused and had a bad childhood and came from bad parents and poverty."

"It's not genetics.......it's their environment."

"The police are prejudiced against them."

"We have to rescue them."

And so it goes........people die and the Liberals cry for the killers.

:2usflag:
 
Interesting links, it contradicts what many of the posters here immediately claimed, "it's all correlated to poverty".
The article shows its own analysis of data arriving at family structure being a stronger indicator of homicide than poverty, and that family structure correlates better by race than by income/poverty. I don't think it's new, I was just surprised at all the racist remarks flying.

==============

ConclusionTo summarize:
There are vast differences in homicide rates between groups (Mach: this is where most people apparently stop thinking)
This “effect” is found consistently in aggregated and (racially) disaggregated data
Inter-racial differences are better explained by family structure than economic conditions.
These differences are even found in some pretty affluent/low-poverty communities
The (intra-racial) black homicide rate, in particular, is better explained by family structure than poverty rates and, especially, other economic measures.
There are large differences in family structure between whites and blacks, in particular.
It’s probably not a coincidence that other groups fall closely along this regression line when aggregated at national or even state levels.
The inter-racial differences in family structure are not well explained by income or poverty measures, i.e., (domestic) blacks of the same income level have much lower levels of traditional family structure.
 
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