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How big will this year's deficit be?

Conservative said:
And yet, the following, care to explain how your post supports the official bls.gov data? Why would anyone give Obama credit for the worst recovery from a major recession in history? You point to the severity of a recession that didn't even impact you or most Americans totally ignoring the policies generated that created the poor recovery

Population growth, strong Obama economic policies and we didn't get back to the pre recession levels until 2014, that is failure
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Worst recovery? 20 million jobs created. In contrast, trump lost 30-40 million jobs.
 
Conservative said:
Yes, do you have a point? How much of that is under the control of the President? Did Trump increase employment thus taxpayers 6.6 million in three years? What was the interest rate in 2016 that went to the U.S. Debt
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my point was you were incorrect when you said trump didn't double the deficit. Trumps economy has performed at the same level that Obama's did. Every economic metric has been on the same unchanging trend line starting in 2010.
 
rahl said:
my point was you were incorrect when you said trump didn't double the deficit. Trumps economy has performed at the same level that Obama's did. Every economic metric has been on the same unchanging trend line starting in 2010.
Click to expand...

My point is exactly right on, President Trump didn't generate 7 interest rate hikes and cause the debt service become the fourth largest budget item.

I keep hearing that Trump's economy hasn't performed any better than Obama's but never see any data with context to support that? Here is the reality that you want to ignore, context matters, GDP percentage change ignores the components of GDP, the Official unemployment rate the U-3 ignores the total unemployment rate the U-6. Deficits ignore the components which are discretionary spending, mandatory spending, and debt service. Want to try again?

There seems to be a real disconnect when it comes to debt and the results generated from that debt thus showing that all debt isn't equal. What exactly did the American taxpayers get out of the Obama debt??

1. The worst recovery from a major recession in modern history
2. Employment not getting back to pre recession levels until 2014
3. Record numbers of part time for economic reason employment meaning part time jobs thus lower taxpaying jobs
4. 500 billion average annual GDP growth for 8 years(4.0 Trillion GDP growth)
5. 9.3% U-6 Unemployment rate
6. Bail out of the pubic sector and claimed saved jobs which didn't generate the promised new jobs thus new taxpayers from 842 billion dollar shovel ready jobs stimulus

What have we gotten for the Trump debt

1. Strong economic growth, 900 billion average GDP growth 2017-2018-2019(2.7 trillion growth)
2. Employment of 6.6 million jobs created in 3 years vs. 6 million jobs created prior to taking office the last 9 years
3. 6.9% U-6 vs. 9.3% that he inherited
4. 1.4 million fewer part time for economic reason employees than inherited
5. 6% African American unemployment vs. the 8% inherited
6. Record state and local tax revenue due to consumer spending as a result of the tax cuts
7. No massive Gov't stimulus program pre pandemic

Looks to me like the Trump debt generated better return than Obama's, await your reply?
 
Conservative said:
My point is exactly right on, President Trump didn't generate 7 interest rate hikes
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Then do tell what generates interest rate hikes! :lol:
 
Kushinator said:
lamo I'm not having this discussion with Jason Furman and will not argue your interpretations of another person's statements via proxy. If you have an point relative to my statement regarding the output gap, stimulus, the ballooning deficit or debt... by all means. Judging from our exchanges thus far, i am not hoping for much.
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I thought you were a poseur. This is just confirmation.
 
Kushinator said:
Then do tell what generates interest rate hikes! :lol:
Click to expand...

Stronger economic growth will impact interest rates that were zero or close to it during that booming Obama economy.

United States Fed Funds Rate | 1971-2020 Data | 2021-2022 Forecast | Calendar

Interest on the National Debt and How it Affects You


Fiscal Year Interest on the Debt (in billions) Interest Rate on 10-Year Treasury Public Debt (in bilions) Percent of Budget

2008 $253 3.7% $5,803 8.5%
2009 $187 3.3% $7,545 5.3%
2010 $196 3.2% $9,019 5.7%
2011 $230 2.8% $10,128 6.4%
2012 $220 1.8% $11,281 6.2%
2013 $221 2.4% $11,983 6.4%
2014 $229 2.5% $12,780 6.5%
2015 $223 2.1% $13,117 6.0%
2016 $240 1.8% $14,168 6.2%
2017 $263 2.7% $14,824 6.8%
2018 $325 2.9% $15,750 7.9%
2019 $393 3.4% $16,919 8.7%
2020 $479 3.6% $18,087 10.1%
Click to expand...

Deficit increases during the Trump term all exceeding the debt service Obama inherited showing the effects of lower interest rates and the poor Obama recovery.
 
JohnfrmClevelan said:
Growth in the money supply generally happens in order to invest in growth, so there is more money chasing more production.

Also, money is retired from the active economy by savings (including bond sales), debt repayment, and debt defaults (indirectly lowers the money supply by lowering bank equity).
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That's true.
and the likely result of suddenly dumping 3.5 trillion, more or less, into the money supply? Is that going to be a positive thing? I'd like to think so, but then, that does seem like a lot all at once.
 
Kushinator said:
In the long run. In the short run, prices are driven entirely by supply and demand.



In the short run. That is what we see today.



In the long run.
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So, increasing the money supply is likely to result in inflation in the long run, right? Just how much inflation will result, do you suppose, and how will that affect people at the bottom of the economic ladder?
 
jonny5 said:
I dont understand. We're talking about debt.

-In 2018 the deficit increased by about 115bn.
-Revenue increased by 15bn
-spending increased by 127bn

And I posted above where that debt came from. Mainly interest and social spending, followed by defense. So how are those dividends to the rich and powerful? Just opposite, social spending goes primarily to the poor. Though I supposed you could argue theyre then giving that money back to the rich when they spend on healthcare for example.
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The dividends to the rich and powerful are in the form of tax cuts.
 
Conservative said:
My point is exactly right on, President Trump didn't generate 7 interest rate hikes and cause the debt service become the fourth largest budget item.

I keep hearing that Trump's economy hasn't performed any better than Obama's but never see any data with context to support that? Here is the reality that you want to ignore, context matters, GDP percentage change ignores the components of GDP, the Official unemployment rate the U-3 ignores the total unemployment rate the U-6. Deficits ignore the components which are discretionary spending, mandatory spending, and debt service. Want to try again?

There seems to be a real disconnect when it comes to debt and the results generated from that debt thus showing that all debt isn't equal. What exactly did the American taxpayers get out of the Obama debt??

1. The worst recovery from a major recession in modern history
2. Employment not getting back to pre recession levels until 2014
3. Record numbers of part time for economic reason employment meaning part time jobs thus lower taxpaying jobs
4. 500 billion average annual GDP growth for 8 years(4.0 Trillion GDP growth)
5. 9.3% U-6 Unemployment rate
6. Bail out of the pubic sector and claimed saved jobs which didn't generate the promised new jobs thus new taxpayers from 842 billion dollar shovel ready jobs stimulus

What have we gotten for the Trump debt

1. Strong economic growth, 900 billion average GDP growth 2017-2018-2019(2.7 trillion growth)
2. Employment of 6.6 million jobs created in 3 years vs. 6 million jobs created prior to taking office the last 9 years
3. 6.9% U-6 vs. 9.3% that he inherited
4. 1.4 million fewer part time for economic reason employees than inherited
5. 6% African American unemployment vs. the 8% inherited
6. Record state and local tax revenue due to consumer spending as a result of the tax cuts
7. No massive Gov't stimulus program pre pandemic

Looks to me like the Trump debt generated better return than Obama's, await your reply?
Click to expand...

your point is demonstrably incorrect, as I showed you. He doubled the deficit, and his economic performance is no different than obamas. Every economic metric has been on the same unchanging trend line since 2010.
 
Jay59 said:
I thought you were a poseur. This is just confirmation.
Click to expand...

Another post devoid of any content. You're now what... 9/9?
 
rahl said:
your point is demonstrably incorrect, as I showed you. He doubled the deficit, and his economic performance is no different than obamas. Every economic metric has been on the same unchanging trend line since 2010.
Click to expand...

The point is context matters except to you, how did he double the deficit and what line items did that? Context matters not rhetoric and personal opinions. I gave you context, why is that so hard to understand?
 
rahl said:
your point is demonstrably incorrect, as I showed you. He doubled the deficit, and his economic performance is no different than obamas. Every economic metric has been on the same unchanging trend line since 2010.
Click to expand...
Kushinator said:
Another post devoid of any content. You're now what... 9/9?
Click to expand...
Fits here better.
 
Conservative said:
The point is context matters except to you, how did he double the deficit and what line items did that? Context matters not rhetoric and personal opinions. I gave you context, why is that so hard to understand?
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There is no context with you. You will defend trump no matter what. you are okay with trumps 5 trillion dollar deficit, negative gdp, and 30 million jobs lost because of the R next to his name. Obama mean while creates 20 million jobs adds 10k to the dow and lowers bush's $1.4 triliion dollar deficit to $400 billion and its not good enough for you. 5th avenue indeed.
 
99percenter said:
There is no context with you. You will defend trump no matter what. you are okay with trumps 5 trillion dollar deficit, negative gdp, and 30 million jobs lost because of the R next to his name. Obama mean while creates 20 million jobs adds 10k to the dow and lowers bush's $1.4 triliion dollar deficit to $400 billion and its not good enough for you. 5th avenue indeed.
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Context matters except to you, the loss of jobs was due to the pandemic and gov't shutdown not Trump economic policies, that shutdown was non partisan but everything is partisan to a leftwing radical from Chicago. You keep promoting the left wing ideology, revisionist history and it is going to be another long 4 years for people like you with Trump's re-election
 
Dittohead not! said:
Just how much inflation will result, do you suppose, and how will that affect people at the bottom of the economic ladder?
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Not at all. People on the bottom of the ladder don't hold large sums of cash. Being at the bottom of the economic ladder also reduces the likelihood of owning appreciating dollar denominated assets, and so a lack income mobility will continue to plague the most poor segments of our population.
 
Conservative said:
Stronger economic growth will impact interest rates
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Ah hah! So you can't have it both ways... interest rates began their ascent at the end of 2015 and continued until the beginning of 2019. In one sentence you want to cherry-pick data to push a narrative, and in another sentence, you chose to contradict that same narrative as a means of absolving Trump of deficit growth.

The fact of the matter is, stronger economic growth will naturally reduce the deficit while simultaneously putting pressure on monetary authorities to raise interest rates. When interest rates rise in tandem with deficits, there is an economic disconnect. It's a sign of fiscal stimulus during economic expansion, and creates an environment of crowding out private investment.

And we can observe this in the data:

fredgraph.png


In 2016, there was a collapse in oil prices, which reduced real private domestic investment until oil prices recovered... just in case you try to attack another man of straw.
 
Conservative said:
Context matters except to you, the loss of jobs was due to the pandemic and gov't shutdown not Trump economic policies, that shutdown was non partisan but everything is partisan to a leftwing radical from Chicago. You keep promoting the left wing ideology, revisionist history and it is going to be another long 4 years for people like you with Trump's re-election
Click to expand...

The pandemic was due to trumps incompetence and unfortunately for you he will be judged for all of his presidency, not just the parts you want. Trump will not be re-elected.
 
rahl said:
your point is demonstrably incorrect, as I showed you. He doubled the deficit, and his economic performance is no different than obamas. Every economic metric has been on the same unchanging trend line since 2010.
Click to expand...

Your statement isn't entirely true. While the deficit has increased significantly pre-pandemic, it hasn't doubled. The federal deficit was $584 billion for FY 2016, $669 billion for FY 2017, and $984 billion for FY 2019.

Now it is very true that economic growth during the Trump administration has followed a trend established nearly a decade ago.
 
Dittohead not! said:
The dividends to the rich and powerful are in the form of tax cuts.
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Not taking their money is a dividend?

dividend: a sum of money paid regularly

Youre saying the govt is paying the rich through a tax cut? Hows that work exactly? I know how it works on the lower end as tax credits make someones liability negative. But Im not sure how lowering someones tax paid from $400,000 to $350,000 is the govt paying them.
 
99percenter said:
The pandemic was due to trumps incompetence and unfortunately for you he will be judged for all of his presidency, not just the parts you want. Trump will not be re-elected.
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LOL, take that to the voters and convince them that Trump is responsible for the pandemic, what a typical dumbass liberal revisionist history comment and why you continue to be ignored
 
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