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Stock market’s eerie parallels to September 2007 should raise recession fears

bearpoker said:
And the gain from 2009 to 2010 was 100%. The wave Obama rode up was because of the stimulus he applied to the economy over the objections of the Republicans.
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So what? The stimulus? Don't make me laugh. Remember all those "shovel ready jobs that weren't shovel ready; the 9.8% unemployment that was supposed to drop to 8% because of the stimulus? Sorry, he rode a wave, that's all. Overall his recovery rates as the poorest since WW II.
 
What if...? said:
Again, do I believe a trump sycophant or various articles I've read by people who actually understand that say that things like the trade war and the inevitable end of the sugar rush from the tax cuts are major factors in the looming recession.

We could skate by, but it will be close.

Observation is a key tool. Working in the remodeling industry before the housing crash I knew it was ending before it happened. Begged a couple of folks to stop using their equity like a cash machine. One couple did, one didn't. Guess which one lost their home and which one made me a steak dinner in gratitude.
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Anyone with any sense could see the crash coming. People were encouraged to by homes they couldn't afford with artificially low interest rates that bloomed in a few years into unaffordable monthly payments. Of course it all came crashing down.
 
What if...? said:
You say that yet I've never seen you actually question a damn thing he says or does.
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I said multiple times I don't approve his demeanor or behavior. I eschew piling-on for "can you believe Trump . . . " threads.
 
Bullseye said:
So what? The stimulus? Don't make me laugh. Remember all those "shovel ready jobs that weren't shovel ready; the 9.8% unemployment that was supposed to drop to 8% because of the stimulus? Sorry, he rode a wave, that's all. Overall his recovery rates as the poorest since WW II.
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The stimulus did work. We went from -2.5% GDP growth to +2.5%. It was slower than we hoped but it was steady. Things never go exactly as planned or hoped. Obama inherited a mess and fixed it. Trump inherited a growing economy. Pretended it was a mess and stimulated it when it was already expanding. Of course it then expanded a little faster, but not nearly at the rate he predicted. Remember he told us that it would be 4%. He told us the taxcut would pay for itself. That was bull****. He gave us a sugar high. Now he's killing it with tarrifs. Some plan.
 
bearpoker said:
The stimulus did work. We went from -2.5% GDP growth to +2.5%. It was slower than we hoped but it was steady. Things never go exactly as planned or hoped. Obama inherited a mess and fixed it. Trump inherited a growing economy. Pretended it was a mess and stimulated it when it was already expanding. Of course it then expanded a little faster, but not nearly at the rate he predicted. Remember he told us that it would be 4%. He told us the taxcut would pay for itself. That was bull****. He gave us a sugar high. Now he's killing it with tarrifs. Some plan.
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Nonsense.
 
bearpoker said:
So far the economy has been strong enough to withstand Trump's shenanigans, which is pretty impressive. He has less than 2 years now to really screw it up.
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True. Lets remember it is hard to maintain a recovery for this long a period,not that he is helping. That being said if we get something done with the Chinese and then get infrastructure through congress whomever is president in 2021 will have a shot of this thing going for a while.
 
washunut said:
True. Lets remember it is hard to maintain a recovery for this long a period,not that he is helping. That being said if we get something done with the Chinese and then get infrastructure through congress whomever is president in 2021 will have a shot of this thing going for a while.
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Trump missed his chance with infrastructure. He should have been doing that instead of trying to kill Obamacare. Now he's lost interest. The world is passing us by and he's trying to bring back coal.
 
bearpoker said:
Trump missed his chance with infrastructure. He should have been doing that instead of trying to kill Obamacare. Now he's lost interest. The world is passing us by and he's trying to bring back coal.
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Have to disagree. Infrastructure is dead until the next election. Pelosi will not give Trump a "win" before that. The country be damned. Prior to the 2018 elections he still would have needed help from Schumer,again same answer.
 
washunut said:
Have to disagree. Infrastructure is dead until the next election. Pelosi will not give Trump a "win" before that. The country be damned. Prior to the 2018 elections he still would have needed help from Schumer,again same answer.
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So it's Pelosi's fault that Trump couldn't come up with an infrastructure plan? He had two years with majorities in the house and senate. He squandered them on trying to repeal Obamacare, the wall and assorted nonsense. Now he says he won't work on infrastructure because the Democrats are being mean to him.
Trump Promised Massive Infrastructure Projects—Instead We’ve Gotten Nothing | Common Dreams Views
So far, that wager has netted Americans nothing. No money. No deal. No bridges, roads or leadless water pipes. And there’s nothing on the horizon since Trump stormed out of the most recent meeting. That was a three-minute session in May with Democratic leaders at which Trump was supposed to discuss the $2 trillion he had proposed earlier to spend on infrastructure. In a press conference immediately afterward, Trump said if the Democrats continued to investigate him, he would refuse to keep his promises to the American people to repair the nation’s infrastructure.
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bearpoker said:
So it's Pelosi's fault that Trump couldn't come up with an infrastructure plan? He had two years with majorities in the house and senate. He squandered them on trying to repeal Obamacare, the wall and assorted nonsense. Now he says he won't work on infrastructure because the Democrats are being mean to him.
Trump Promised Massive Infrastructure Projects—Instead We’ve Gotten Nothing | Common Dreams Views
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Really irksome when someone who knows better says silly stuff. I feel you are smart enough to understand that Trump never had a 60 vote majority in the senate to get things passed. The reality was he never had the backing of 50 senators walking in lockstep as democrats did in 2009 for Obama. Thus he could not get a revised HC plan nor wall funding in his first two years.

I did not use the childish phrase that Pelosi is being "mean to him". I did say that she will not give Trump a victory which you did not dispute. Pitting together an effective trillion dollar infrastructure plan takes a lot of planning and working with individual congresspeople as everyone wants their cut of the pie. Sad but that is the reality of politics.

I do think Trump is lousy at working with congress and would like to see a viable alternative in 2020. That being said we can still be honest about what is happening or not happening in 2019.
 
99percenter said:
Stock market’s eerie parallels to September 2007 should raise recession fears - MarketWatch

Looks like we are headed for another gop induced recessions.
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Are you not concerned that this article does not go into the technicals behind the plot trends. I am not ignoring the trends of the market or even a stock in general, but I also like to see the technicals behind the economy/company before making decisions.

2007 was a housing debt bubble. 2020 is a what debt bubble.
Is it the government debt bubble in Asia and Europe that is causing a global economic slowdown?
Is it a corporate debt bubble that will cause the recession?
Is it a consumer debt bubble that will casue the recession?
Are the interest rates going down in the US because they are going down around the world?

What are the technicals behind the trend? If you know that, then you will have a much higher probability of knowing what really is going to cause the next great recession.
 
i hope that we don't have another Republican induced economic crash. i can't afford it.
 
charliebrown said:
Are you not concerned that this article does not go into the technicals behind the plot trends. I am not ignoring the trends of the market or even a stock in general, but I also like to see the technicals behind the economy/company before making decisions.

2007 was a housing debt bubble. 2020 is a what debt bubble.
Is it the government debt bubble in Asia and Europe that is causing a global economic slowdown?
Is it a corporate debt bubble that will cause the recession?
Is it a consumer debt bubble that will casue the recession?
Are the interest rates going down in the US because they are going down around the world?

What are the technicals behind the trend? If you know that, then you will have a much higher probability of knowing what really is going to cause the next great recession.
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We have a huge student debt bubble. When that bursts, it will be worst than the housing bubble.
 
washunut said:
Really irksome when someone who knows better says silly stuff. I feel you are smart enough to understand that Trump never had a 60 vote majority in the senate to get things passed. The reality was he never had the backing of 50 senators walking in lockstep as democrats did in 2009 for Obama. Thus he could not get a revised HC plan nor wall funding in his first two years.

I did not use the childish phrase that Pelosi is being "mean to him". I did say that she will not give Trump a victory which you did not dispute. Pitting together an effective trillion dollar infrastructure plan takes a lot of planning and working with individual congresspeople as everyone wants their cut of the pie. Sad but that is the reality of politics.

I do think Trump is lousy at working with congress and would like to see a viable alternative in 2020. That being said we can still be honest about what is happening or not happening in 2019.
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You don't need 60 votes. Trump rammed through his tax bill with only republican votes. He would also have passed trumpcare without 60 votes.
 
washunut said:
Really irksome when someone who knows better says silly stuff. I feel you are smart enough to understand that Trump never had a 60 vote majority in the senate to get things passed. The reality was he never had the backing of 50 senators walking in lockstep as democrats did in 2009 for Obama. Thus he could not get a revised HC plan nor wall funding in his first two years.

I did not use the childish phrase that Pelosi is being "mean to him". I did say that she will not give Trump a victory which you did not dispute. Pitting together an effective trillion dollar infrastructure plan takes a lot of planning and working with individual congresspeople as everyone wants their cut of the pie. Sad but that is the reality of politics.

I do think Trump is lousy at working with congress and would like to see a viable alternative in 2020. That being said we can still be honest about what is happening or not happening in 2019.
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The "mean" jab was at Trump, not you.
Schumer offered Trump money for the wall in return for immigration reform and Trump turned him down. Trump is the unreliable negotiating partner, not Schumer. Democrats have been ready to deal with Trump on infrastructure and Trump is the one who keeps backing off, using a variety of excuses.The latest is because the Democrats are investigating him.Trump to Democrats: No infrastructure without trade deal - POLITICO Earlier it was because there He treats infrastructure like a carrot. Like a treat for the Democrats. He's a totally unreliable negotiating partner as he constantly demonstrates.
 
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chuckiechan said:
What eerie is the article ignored the millions of overextended and financially rickety real estate loans that caused the collapse in the first place. GWB2 tried to reason with Barny Frank in the finance committee, but no luck. So GWB2 just walked away and let it happen. The rest is history.
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Bush actually caused it by giving poor people loans. Nice try though.
 
99percenter said:
Bush actually caused it by giving poor people loans. Nice try though.
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The loan standards were done by the House Financial Services Committee headed by Barny Frank. The Bush Admin was trying to get the committee to tighten up the rules, but Rep. Frank refused. The light was coming down the tunnel and those in the position to make changes ignored it.

Fun fact: Both Bush2 and Clinton were in favor of wider home ownership through relaxed loan standards. So naturally, the government ****ed it up.
 
chuckiechan said:
The loan standards were done by the House Financial Services Committee headed by Barny Frank. The Bush Admin was trying to get the committee to tighten up the rules, but Rep. Frank refused. The light was coming down the tunnel and those in the position to make changes ignored it.

Fun fact: Both Bush2 and Clinton were in favor of wider home ownership through relaxed loan standards. So naturally, the government ****ed it up.
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It was bush that came up with the novel idea to subsidize down payments for people that couldn't get loans. That is what caused the housing market to crash. Before that poor people couldn't get loans even with lax rules because they could never come up with the 20% down. Bush changed that and ended up collapsing the housing market.
 
99percenter said:
We have a huge student debt bubble. When that bursts, it will be worst than the housing bubble.
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Mortgage debt was $10T dollars in 2008 and housing values were going down.

Student loan Debt is 1T dollars in 2019 and salaries are going up.

I will confess that people are paying too much for college and getting little in return for many of the subjects they are studying.

I know, I know, I know. We have a uneducated population that was not taught how to perform a cost benefit analysis in high school. We actually need the government to come in and bail this financially illiterate population out for them to be able to move on with their lives living the american dream while they burden others who have successfully planned and navigated the education system without incurring a ridiculous amount of debt.

You want the nanny state to cuddle you and your children your entire life.

I am wondering why our government is not evaluating the schools and addressing the true issue of why is it so expensive to go to college?

Do we need the government to take over the education system with the health system?

Where are the regulators in this industry??? Why is the federal government handing over money and debt to students without educating them of the risk reward for the money they are spending???

Please do not tell me it is Trump's Fault that parents and students are piling up a ton of debt overpaying for college education.
 
charliebrown said:
Mortgage debt was $10T dollars in 2008 and housing values were going down.

Student loan Debt is 1T dollars in 2019 and salaries are going up.

I will confess that people are paying too much for college and getting little in return for many of the subjects they are studying.

I know, I know, I know. We have a uneducated population that was not taught how to perform a cost benefit analysis in high school. We actually need the government to come in and bail this financially illiterate population out for them to be able to move on with their lives living the american dream while they burden others who have successfully planned and navigated the education system without incurring a ridiculous amount of debt.

You want the nanny state to cuddle you and your children your entire life.

I am wondering why our government is not evaluating the schools and addressing the true issue of why is it so expensive to go to college?

Do we need the government to take over the education system with the health system?

Where are the regulators in this industry??? Why is the federal government handing over money and debt to students without educating them of the risk reward for the money they are spending???

Please do not tell me it is Trump's Fault that parents and students are piling up a ton of debt overpaying for college education.
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Student loan debt is worse than mortgage debt. You can foreclose on your house. You cannot foreclose on your student loan.
 
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