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Trump No Recession but Lower Taxes Anyway.

aociswundumho said:
While tax cuts are always good no matter who gets them, I really wish Trump would convince congress to slash - and I mean drastically slash - federal spending. Hopefully it will happen during his second term when he has nothing to lose.
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GDP = C + I + G + (X - M)

How much do you think we should "slash" GDP?
 
JohnfrmClevelan said:
Whenever I suggest higher deficit spending to boost the economy, you guys call me crazy.

A FICA tax holiday will certainly boost spending, especially if they don't cut government spending to "pay for it." A lower interest rate won't do much, if anything.
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FICA tax is irrelevant. We are talking about a tax cut.

Neither a tax cut nor lower interest rates will cause deficit spending...too much spending causes deficit spending. But both a tax cut and lower interest rates will spur the economy.
 
Mycroft said:
What makes you think the first tax cut "brings on this recession"? In fact, what recession are you talking about. There is no recession.
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So, are you Sean Spicer, Mike Pence, Tom Cotton, Steve Miller, or some other (former) member of Trump's team? You're like in every single Trump thread, always offering up the first "defense".
 
Torus34 said:
A recession is generally agreed by economists [I've no idea how Mr. Lawrence Kudlow, the man who plays an economist on TV and is one of two chief economic advisers to President of the United States of America Donald Trump, defines one,] to be two consecutive quarters of negative GDP. That makes it a 6 month trailing indicator.

Meanwhile, the working stiff in this land defines a recession as a time when jobs are harder to come by. So far, except for manufacturing jobs, which are decreasing month by month under the present administration, we're not in one at present.
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Wrong.

What is a Recession?
A recession is a macroeconomic term that refers to a significant decline in general economic activity in a designated region. It is typically recognized after two consecutive quarters of economic decline, as reflected by GDP in conjunction with monthly indicators like employment. Recessions are officially declared in the U.S. by a committee of experts at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), who determines the peak and subsequent trough of the business cycle which demonstrates the recession.

Recessions are visible in industrial production, employment, real income, and wholesale-retail trade. The working definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth as measured by a country's gross domestic product (GDP), although the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) does not necessarily need to see this occur to call a recession, and uses more frequently reported monthly data to make its decision, so quarterly declines in GDP do not always align with the decision to declare a recession.

Recession Definition
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Airyaman said:
So, are you Sean Spicer, Mike Pence, Tom Cotton, Steve Miller, or some other (former) member of Trump's team? You're like in every single Trump thread, always offering up the first "defense".
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I'm not offering up any defense. I'm simply asking questions and stating facts.

btw, the person I directed that post to ended up backtracking because he couldn't come up with any facts. Do you have some?
 
Mycroft said:
I'm not offering up any defense. I'm simply asking questions and stating facts.

btw, the person I directed that post to ended up backtracking because he couldn't come up with any facts. Do you have some?
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No, I'm just curious why you defend Trump in so many freakin' treads. You're either family, a cabinet member, in love with him, or just a member of the cult.
 
Airyaman said:
No, I'm just curious why you defend Trump in so many freakin' treads. You're either family, a cabinet member, in love with him, or just a member of the cult.
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As I said...I simply state facts. I can't help it if the facts support Trump.

If you find that bothersome, perhaps you should ask yourself why the facts don't support you.
 
Mycroft said:
As I said...I simply state facts. I can't help it if the facts support Trump.

If you find that bothersome, perhaps you should ask yourself why the facts don't support you.
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So no real answer...in love or in the cult (same thing?).
 
Airyaman said:
So no real answer...in love or in the cult (same thing?).
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???

What part of "I simply state facts" do you not understand?

You are dismissed.
 
Exquisitor said:
Trump No Recession but Lower Taxes Anyway:

I heard on the radio, Trump says we're not going into a recession, but he'll lower taxes anyway.

Trump, your first tax cut brings on this recession and now you want cut taxes again?

Sure, the crash will be bigger and we can use our cash assets to buy up cheap property.
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Trump, Russia collusion lie has failed.

Trump and his supporters are White Supremacists lie is falling flat.

So now the Left is down to wishing for a recession.
 
Mycroft said:
???

What part of "I simply state facts" do you not understand?

You are dismissed.
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So now you reveal who you are!

7a6228ce6478748d552313f2b527d45b
 
Mycroft said:
Slash "G" by any increase in "C", "I" or "X-M"

GDP is unaffected.
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Wrong.

Deficit spending doesn't decrease any of the other components, because it's not tax revenues that are being spent, it's new money created by the government. And that's the first thing that gets "slashed" when you slash government spending.

Also, since the private sector saves some of its income, especially the rich, you don't get a dollar-for-dollar replacement of consumption or investment when you cut taxes. Not even with a FICA tax reduction, which goes primarily to the lower end.
 
Mycroft said:
What makes you think the first tax cut "brings on this recession"? In fact, what recession are you talking about. There is no recession.
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The trade war didn't help, but, in that case, the biggest losers are the red-state soybean farmers - what comes around, goes around, eh? Oh, what recession you ask? The recession that all of the economists are talking about coming. Did you know just this week the government corrected data from 2018 showing that the U.S lost a half-million manufacturing jobs? Will you call fake news? That's OK, I've included a cite from Fox News, here you go: America has half a million fewer jobs than initially believed | Fox Business You believe Fox News, right? Right?
 
Huey Freeman said:
The trade war didn't help, but, in that case, the biggest losers are the red-state soybean farmers. What recession? The recession that all of the economists are talking about coming. Did you know just this week the government corrected data from 2018 showing that the U.S lost a half-million manufacturing jobs? Will you call fake news? That's OK, I've included a cite from Fox News, here you go: America has half a million fewer jobs than initially believed | Fox Business You believe Fox News, right? Right?
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LOL!!

Yeah...I heard about that "the U.S lost a half-million manufacturing jobs" nonsense. Here's the reality:

In accordance with usual practice, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is announcing the preliminary estimate of the upcoming annual benchmark revision to the establishment survey employment series. The final benchmark revision will be issued in February 2020 with the publication of the January 2020 Employment Situation news release.

Access Denied
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So...this is a preliminary estimate of the upcoming annual benchmark revision. "preliminary" "estimate" Do you know what that means? Fox and all the other media reporting on this are lying their asses off...and you believed them. Good job.

And that "recession that all of the economists are talking about". Here's who's actually doing the talking:



Yeah...that's right...the talking potato heads on TV...and you believe THEM, too.

And no...I don't believe any nonsense from the multimedia echo chamber. Not even Fox. I believe facts...and there are ZERO facts that indicate the US will be in a recession. It's all fear mongering.
 
Mycroft said:
What makes you think the first tax cut "brings on this recession"? In fact, what recession are you talking about. There is no recession.
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History has a way to repeat itself, Remember GW Bush and what his tax cut did?
Have a nice night
 
Mycroft said:
LOL!!

Yeah...I heard about that "the U.S lost a half-million manufacturing jobs" nonsense. Here's the reality:



So...this is a preliminary estimate of the upcoming annual benchmark revision. "preliminary" "estimate" Do you know what that means? Fox and all the other media reporting on this are lying their asses off...and you believed them. Good job.

And that "recession that all of the economists are talking about". Here's who's actually doing the talking:



Yeah...that's right...the talking potato heads on TV...and you believe THEM, too.

And no...I don't believe any nonsense from the multimedia echo chamber. Not even Fox. I believe facts...and there are ZERO facts that indicate the US will be in a recession. It's all fear mongering.
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So, all of news agencies including Fox News (!!) aren't just wrong but are deliberately "lying"? Really? Is that your debate strategy? To refer to all of them as liars? You're the internet know-it-all with economics training, the guy who hasn't received a degree in economics, the guy who hasn't published one peer-reviewed paper in finance or economics is supposed to know better than the government agency that puts out the information? C'mon, guy, please. You can't even properly pen a thesis statement in your posts, and you're supposed to know more than actual, degree-carrying economists who've commented on the issue? (Cite*: Gregory Daco on Twitter: "Prelim Current Employment Statistics revisions shows massive 501k downward revisions to nonfarm payrolls!") Who exactly are you trying to fool? What precisely are your qualifications? That's a rhetorical question. You have no qualifications.You are, like so many of the posters here, just talking out your ass. I'll leave you to it.

* I include a cite as a formality. I know that this message board does not care whether a claim or properly sourced or not.

I'm done responding to you, I'll gonna let my homies here ride on you. You're not worth my time.

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Huey Freeman said:
(Cite*: Gregory Daco on Twitter: "Prelim Current Employment Statistics revisions shows massive 501k downward revisions to nonfarm payrolls!")

~snipped the irrelevant, useless and unproductive personal attack~
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So...the only justification you can come up with is another person who treats a "preliminary estimate" as fact. Tell me...what makes this person any more credible than the "experts" who were surprised when the non-preliminary, non-estimated unemployment claims report showed that their estimates were wrong as the following Reuters article reports?

The number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits fell sharply last week, suggesting the labor market was holding firm despite a manufacturing slowdown and concerns the economy is on a path toward recession.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 209,000 for the week ended Aug. 17, the Labor Department said on Thursday.

The decline was sharper than expected. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims would drop to 216,000 in the latest week.


[…] The four-week average for new unemployment benefits claims was lower than the corresponding week in July, a positive signal for employment during the month.

There are few signs a bitter trade war between the United States and China was spilling over to the national labor market, although growth in manufacturing jobs has slowed this year.

U.S. factories show signs of trouble; labor market still firm
| Article [AMP]
| Reuters
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And this isn't the only time the "experts"...the "economists"...have been wrong. If you want, I can give you many more examples. Heck, here's another one...

The National Association of Realtors said existing home sales rose 2.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.42 million units last month. June’s sales pace was revised slightly higher to 5.29 million units from the previously reported 5.27 million units.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast existing home sales would rise to a rate of 5.39 million units in July.

U.S. home sales rise, boosted by lower mortgage rates
| Article [AMP]
| Reuters
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Do you need more examples of the unreliability of the "experts"?

You are correct. I am not an expert. But it doesn't take an expert to recognize bad guesses.

So...I suggest that, like me, you don't believe everything you read and see on TV or the Internet...especially when they spin factual information into something that wasn't presented, as Fox did with the "preliminary estimate".
 
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Mycroft said:
Wrong.
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The Griper’s Creed

It matters not what issue’s sought.
It’s possible to pick a nit.
I’ve found that, with a little thought,
Some downside can be found to fit.

No matter what the fact du jour,
I love to gripe, I must confess.
The sun is out? I’ll burn for sure.
It’s raining now? My hair’s a mess.

So ‘bide with me while I complain.
It’s really, truly quite a lark.
Light a candle? Don’t be a pain.
I’ll just sit here and curse the dark.

Zachariah Grimble
 
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Tbird19482 said:
History has a way to repeat itself, Remember GW Bush and what his tax cut did?
Have a nice night
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Increase GDP and thus revenue? I remember the recession was caused by govt encouraging banks to loan out money to anyone and everyone to buy houses. You think it was caused by taxes being too low?
 
Torus34 said:
The Griper’s Creed

It matters not what issue’s sought.
It’s possible to pick a nit.
I’ve found that, with a little thought,
Some downside can be found to fit.

No matter what the fact du jour,
I love to gripe, I must confess.
The sun is out? I’ll burn for sure.
It’s raining now? My hair’s a mess.

So ‘bide with me while I complain.
It’s really, truly quite a lark.
Light a candle? Don’t be a pain.
I’ll just sit here and curse the dark.

Zachariah Grimble
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If you don't like being proven wrong when you speak, you have two choices...speak factually or don't speak.

What you do is up to you.
 
jonny5 said:
Increase GDP and thus revenue? I remember the recession was caused by govt encouraging banks to loan out money to anyone and everyone to buy houses. You think it was caused by taxes being too low?
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Those who point to Bush's tax-cuts and conclude they were causal to higher revenue are fooling themselves. If we look at those government revenue (adjusting for inflation and population growth) after the tax-cuts, which occurred in 2001 and 2003, what do we see? Revenue dropped after each of the tax-cuts.

Even after the housing bubble started (post 2004,) the revenue never recovered to pre-tax-cut levels. Then after the housing bubble broke revenue declined greatly.

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