Page 1 of 5 123 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 44

Thread: Spending up 9%

  1. #1
    Sage

    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Location
    Republic of Florida
    Last Seen
    Yesterday @ 01:21 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Libertarian
    Posts
    16,781

    Spending up 9%

    Taxes are up 2% or 51bn over same time last year, so no wonder the deficit keeps increasing.

    Amounts withheld from workers’ paychecks rose by $30 billion (or 2 percent). That
    change largely reflects increases in wages and salaries

    Customs duties increased by $19 billion (or 78 percent), primarily because of new tariffs
    imposed by the Administration during the past year.
    Spending is up 9% or 255bn over same period last year.

    -132bn mandatory social spending
    -53bn DOD and VA
    -37bn additional interest on the debt

    https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2019-06/55329-MBR.pdf

    6 months since Democrats took over the House, and a couple month till FY2020, and still no budget, no approprations. The House budget committee has put out a framework to increase spending, thats it. Oh, also a hearing on budgetary effects of climate change 50 years from now.

  2. #2
    Sage



    Join Date
    Dec 2013
    Last Seen
    Today @ 07:48 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Liberal
    Posts
    16,400

    Re: Spending up 9%

    Quote Originally Posted by jonny5 View Post
    Taxes are up 2% or 51bn over same time last year, so no wonder the deficit keeps increasing.



    Spending is up 9% or 255bn over same period last year.

    -132bn mandatory social spending
    -53bn DOD and VA
    -37bn additional interest on the debt

    https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2019-06/55329-MBR.pdf

    6 months since Democrats took over the House, and a couple month till FY2020, and still no budget, no approprations. The House budget committee has put out a framework to increase spending, thats it. Oh, also a hearing on budgetary effects of climate change 50 years from now.
    2019 receipts may be up over the same period in 2018, but bother were depressed due to tax-cuts. Both 2019 and 2018 receipts are lower than previous years.

    "I never meant to say that the Conservatives are generally stupid. I meant to say that stupid people are generally Conservative. I believe that is so obviously and universally admitted a principle that I hardly think any gentleman will deny it." --J.S. Mill

  3. #3
    A sinister place...
    OrphanSlug's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2011
    Location
    Atlanta
    Last Seen
    Today @ 05:37 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Independent
    Posts
    14,958

    Re: Spending up 9%

    Based on what I can find... since the US went to this current system for budgeting and spending (almost 50 years old now) Congress has passed all required appropriations measures on time only four times from then to now. Fiscal years 1977, 1989, 1995 and 1997.

    The 2019 fiscal year *almost* made the list as five appropriations bills were passed in and around September 2018 (arguably on time depending on point of view) making it the first time in some 22 years that was pulled off that way, but there was a fair amount of the government still funded through a series of continuing resolutions that are nothing more than a lazy way to continue funding government without going through the entire budgetary process.

    We still face the same problem with this current President and current Congress. Trump's budget proposal was pretty much dead on arrival in Congress, 2019 planning for 2020 fiscal year is stalled out in House committees and subcommittees with no end in sight for something to send over to the Senate, who odds are will reject anything coming from the House. There is so much early campaigning and rhetoric going on right now that odds are we'll see some sort of continuing resolution pushing everything until after the election.

    In the meantime our Total Debt as a percentage of GDP is going back up, 105.3% as of 2018 Q4 (numbers are not in yet for 2019 Q1 but I am seeing estimates in the 106% range.) Overall where we are in terms of surplus or deficit means paying attention to both tax revenues and spending *relational* to what the economic indications are at the time.

    Our issue today is we are at the wrong point on the economic cycle to see spending go up faster than tax revenue, we are increasing deficits at a time where the economy is improving that does not help our fiscal position when the economy takes a downturn. That is the true failure of Trump's tax cuts. Additional interest on Debt is the smallest part of the increase, so it is rather dubious to blame the Fed.
    "Democracy without respect for individual rights sucks. It's just ganging up against the weird kid, and I'm always the weird kid." - Penn Jillette.

  4. #4
    Sage

    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Location
    Republic of Florida
    Last Seen
    Yesterday @ 01:21 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Libertarian
    Posts
    16,781

    Re: Spending up 9%

    Quote Originally Posted by MTAtech View Post
    2019 receipts may be up over the same period in 2018, but bother were depressed due to tax-cuts. Both 2019 and 2018 receipts are lower than previous years.

    [IMG]https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=oagi[IMG]
    Chart makes no sense. We dont collect 2 trillion every quarter. And we collect far more than 2 trillion every year.

    CBO says Income tax and payroll tax receipts are up year after year. Nearly double in the last decade alone. And theres another 500bn in other revenues.

    Capture.JPG

    Budget and Economic Data | Congressional Budget Office
    Last edited by jonny5; 06-12-19 at 01:37 PM.

  5. #5
    Sage

    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Location
    Republic of Florida
    Last Seen
    Yesterday @ 01:21 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Libertarian
    Posts
    16,781

    Re: Spending up 9%

    Quote Originally Posted by OrphanSlug View Post
    Based on what I can find... since the US went to this current system for budgeting and spending (almost 50 years old now) Congress has passed all required appropriations measures on time only four times from then to now. Fiscal years 1977, 1989, 1995 and 1997.

    The 2019 fiscal year *almost* made the list as five appropriations bills were passed in and around September 2018 (arguably on time depending on point of view) making it the first time in some 22 years that was pulled off that way, but there was a fair amount of the government still funded through a series of continuing resolutions that are nothing more than a lazy way to continue funding government without going through the entire budgetary process.

    We still face the same problem with this current President and current Congress. Trump's budget proposal was pretty much dead on arrival in Congress, 2019 planning for 2020 fiscal year is stalled out in House committees and subcommittees with no end in sight for something to send over to the Senate, who odds are will reject anything coming from the House. There is so much early campaigning and rhetoric going on right now that odds are we'll see some sort of continuing resolution pushing everything until after the election.

    In the meantime our Total Debt as a percentage of GDP is going back up, 105.3% as of 2018 Q4 (numbers are not in yet for 2019 Q1 but I am seeing estimates in the 106% range.) Overall where we are in terms of surplus or deficit means paying attention to both tax revenues and spending *relational* to what the economic indications are at the time.

    Our issue today is we are at the wrong point on the economic cycle to see spending go up faster than tax revenue, we are increasing deficits at a time where the economy is improving that does not help our fiscal position when the economy takes a downturn. That is the true failure of Trump's tax cuts. Additional interest on Debt is the smallest part of the increase, so it is rather dubious to blame the Fed.
    Id say its the true failure of Congress AND Trumps lack of action on mandatory spending, if were ignoring history before Trump. The entire deficit can be traced to Healthcare and Income Security programs.

  6. #6
    I'm not-low all the time
    Kushinator's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Location
    lincoln park
    Last Seen
    Today @ 08:00 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Independent
    Posts
    17,903

    Re: Spending up 9%

    Quote Originally Posted by jonny5 View Post
    Chart makes no sense. We dont collect 2 trillion every quarter. And we collect far more than 2 trillion every year.
    You need to go back and re-read the chart. It doesn't say we collect 2 trillion every quarter, nor does it say the federal government collects $2 trillion every year. It does show the level of current tax receipts on a quarterly annualized basis in terms of National Income Product Accounts (or how it aligns with GDP).

    CBO says
    MTA's source is retrieved from the Bureau of Economic Analysis via the FRED database.
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

  7. #7
    Sage



    Join Date
    Dec 2013
    Last Seen
    Today @ 07:48 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Liberal
    Posts
    16,400

    Re: Spending up 9%

    Quote Originally Posted by jonny5 View Post
    Chart makes no sense. We dont collect 2 trillion every quarter. And we collect far more than 2 trillion every year.

    CBO says Income tax and payroll tax receipts are up year after year. Nearly double in the last decade alone. And theres another 500bn in other revenues.

    Capture.JPG

    Budget and Economic Data | Congressional Budget Office
    I couldn’t have asked for a better example of why it’s important to correct for inflation and population growth, both of which tend to make revenues grow regardless of tax policy.
    "I never meant to say that the Conservatives are generally stupid. I meant to say that stupid people are generally Conservative. I believe that is so obviously and universally admitted a principle that I hardly think any gentleman will deny it." --J.S. Mill

  8. #8
    Sage
    Media_Truth's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2016
    Last Seen
    Today @ 11:43 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Independent
    Posts
    8,538

    Re: Spending up 9%

    Quote Originally Posted by jonny5 View Post
    Taxes are up 2% or 51bn over same time last year, so no wonder the deficit keeps increasing.



    Spending is up 9% or 255bn over same period last year.

    -132bn mandatory social spending
    -53bn DOD and VA
    -37bn additional interest on the debt

    https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2019-06/55329-MBR.pdf

    6 months since Democrats took over the House, and a couple month till FY2020, and still no budget, no approprations. The House budget committee has put out a framework to increase spending, thats it. Oh, also a hearing on budgetary effects of climate change 50 years from now.
    So Dems have had the Congress for 6 months. Republicans had the House, the Senate, and the Presidency for 2 years (4x as long). They didn't decrease spending. Instead they gave billionaire tax cuts, and skyrocketed the deficit.

  9. #9
    Sage

    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Location
    Republic of Florida
    Last Seen
    Yesterday @ 01:21 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Libertarian
    Posts
    16,781

    Re: Spending up 9%

    Quote Originally Posted by MTAtech View Post
    I couldn’t have asked for a better example of why it’s important to correct for inflation and population growth, both of which tend to make revenues grow regardless of tax policy.
    Neither the population, nor inflation, have doubled in 10 years. Not even if you combine them. Meanwhile taxes have increased by 1.3 trillion. Unfortunately they keep outspending it.
    Amounts withheld from workers’ paychecks rose by $30 billion (or 2 percent). That
    change largely reflects increases in wages and salaries

  10. #10
    Sage



    Join Date
    Dec 2013
    Last Seen
    Today @ 07:48 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Liberal
    Posts
    16,400

    Re: Spending up 9%

    Quote Originally Posted by jonny5 View Post
    Neither the population, nor inflation, have doubled in 10 years. Not even if you combine them. Meanwhile taxes have increased by 1.3 trillion. Unfortunately they keep outspending it.
    First, taxes haven't increased. Tax REVENUE has increased of the last ten years.
    Second, tax revenue was depressed from 2009 - 2012 because of the recession.
    Third, after the recession ended, tax revenue, adjusted for inflation and population growth (see chart) is flat-line, with the exception that starting in 2013, the upper-income tax portion, originally from the Bush tax-cuts, expired. That's the bump in revenue that we see.

    "I never meant to say that the Conservatives are generally stupid. I meant to say that stupid people are generally Conservative. I believe that is so obviously and universally admitted a principle that I hardly think any gentleman will deny it." --J.S. Mill

Page 1 of 5 123 ... LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •