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Trump Admin no longer forecasting 3% growth

MTAtech said:
They say the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Thanks for proving what many have been saying about Trumpsters.
Fletch said:
The economy is fantastic right now. What planet are you on?
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The economy was fine before the tax-cuts. Try to keep up. The GOP claimed that the tax-cuts would do all kinds of things, such as a vast investment boom and huge long-term growth. The vast investment boom was supposed to fuel all kinds of things, such as large wage increases. Well, the vast investment boom never happened, with corporations deciding to buy back their own stock. There was minor wage growth about equal to inflation. Annual GDP growth was within statistical norms of the last five years. However, quarterly GDP growth was a sugar-rush, 4.2, dropping to 3.5 and then to 2.2.

So, now we are having Trump's own team admit that GDP growth will be the same as Obama's GDP growth, except that we'll have less government revenue.
 
Fletch said:
The economy is fantastic right now. What planet are you on?
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They just live on the other side of the railroad tracks. Just because they aren't doing well doesn't make it Trumps fault. I'm doing just fine.
 
MTAtech said:
The economy was fine before the tax-cuts. Try to keep up. The GOP claimed that the tax-cuts would do all kinds of things, such as a vast investment boom and huge long-term growth. The vast investment boom was supposed to fuel all kinds of things, such as large wage increases. Well, the vast investment boom never happened, with corporations deciding to buy back their own stock. There was minor wage growth about equal to inflation. Annual GDP growth was within statistical norms of the last five years. However, quarterly GDP growth was a sugar-rush, 4.2, dropping to 3.5 and then to 2.2.

So, now we are having Trump's own team admit that GDP growth will be the same as Obama's GDP growth, except that we'll have less government revenue.
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So it gave us a better economy for a couple years and your pissed about that because you hate Trump. I get it. As for the bolded, thats a good thing.
 
MTAtech said:
Their 2019 Economic Report of the President has scaled back its growth projection to below 3%. See page 527, “current-law baseline forecast is for output growth to moderate as the capital-to-output ratio asymptotically approaches a higher steady-state level in response to business tax reform, and as the near-term effects of the TCJA’s individual provisions on the rate of growth dissipate into a permanent level effect.” That blather means that the Trump tax cuts temporarily stimulated the economy by jacking up the deficit, but now that stimulative effect is wearing off, the growth level is expected to sink below 3% a year.

In other words, the "mediocre" economic growth that those with Trump Devotion Syndrome (TDS) have been telling us existed under Obama, is going to be the standard for the Trump Administration. Gone are the 4-6% growth projections previously boasted about.

To re-emphasize my point, the 2017 tax-cut gave the economy a temporary and slight jolt at a huge permanent cost to the Treasury.
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Nope, doesn't say that. Growth would have to drop below 2% to match Obama's last year. "Current law baseline" is a static estimating model that ignores the dynamic growth caused by the addition money left in the economy by tax cuts.
 
Bullseye said:
Nope, doesn't say that. Growth would have to drop below 2% to match Obama's last year. "Current law baseline" is a static estimating model that ignores the dynamic growth caused by the addition money left in the economy by tax cuts.
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Yeah, because only 2016 counts in your world. It's really noticeable that your conveniently ignore 2015 (+2.9%). The full range of post-recession numbers are, 2012 92.2%0, 2013 (1.8%), 2014 (2.5%), 2015 (2.9%), and 2016 (1.6%).
Trump's are 2017 (2.2%) and 2018 (2.9%.) There isn't much difference between the two groups, which undercuts the whole notion of Trump policies performing miracles.
 
MTAtech said:
Yeah, because only 2016 counts in your world. It's really noticeable that your conveniently ignore 2015 (+2.9%). The full range of post-recession numbers are, 2012 92.2%0, 2013 (1.8%), 2014 (2.5%), 2015 (2.9%), and 2016 (1.6%).
Trump's are 2017 (2.2%) and 2018 (2.9%.) There isn't much difference between the two groups, which undercuts the whole notion of Trump policies performing miracles.
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"Not much difference"? Are you ****ting me? The growth between 1.6% and 2.2% is a 38% gain - and that was before the tax bill. A growth to 2.9% is an 81% gain.

UH, by the way - the recession ENDED in 2009 so where are the "post-recession" numbers for 2009,2010 and 2011?
 
akyron said:
It is fascinating to watch liberal progressive "americans" crow gleefully about the countries potential woes.
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I am afraid we'll face a recession relatively soon given the irresponsible Trump tax cuts, but I don't root for one. I think we need to kick Trump out, but I am not stupid enough to root for a recession to accomplish it, because it will hurt me and my fellow Americans.
 
GreatNews2night said:
I am afraid we'll face a recession relatively soon given the irresponsible Trump tax cuts, but I don't root for one. I think we need to kick Trump out, but I am not stupid enough to root for a recession to accomplish it, because it will hurt me and my fellow Americans.
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What "irresponsible" tax cuts?
 
Bullseye said:
"Not much difference"? Are you ****ting me? The growth between 1.6% and 2.2% is a 38% gain - and that was before the tax bill. A growth to 2.9% is an 81% gain.

UH, by the way - the recession ENDED in 2009 so where are the "post-recession" numbers for 2009,2010 and 2011?
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Once again, you IGNORE every year except 2016.
Oh, 2010 was 2.6%, 2011 was 1.6% and 2012 was 2.2%. GDP numbers have a wide variance. 2019-Q1 is being forecasted at 0.5%.
 
MTAtech said:
Once again, you IGNORE every year except 2016.
Oh, 2010 was 2.6%, 2011 was 1.6% and 2012 was 2.2%. GDP numbers have a wide variance. 2019-Q1 is being forecasted at 0.5%.
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Once again, Trump "inherited" the economy AS OF 2016 - that's his baseline. I notice you skip 2009 - any particular reason for that? :eek:
 
Bullseye said:
What "irresponsible" tax cuts?
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The ones that are ballooning the deficit. The ones that were a gift to the upper classes and corporations. Certainly not the meager and temporary ones for the middle class.
 
GreatNews2night said:
The ones that are ballooning the deficit. The ones that were a gift to the upper classes and corporations. Certainly not the meager and temporary ones for the middle class.
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Spending is "ballooning the deficit" not tax cuts. And please don't make me laugh by trotting out canned liberal tripe.
 
Trump’s Tax Cut Won’t Power the Growth He Predicts, Officials Concede
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To produce that average growth rate for the next decade, White House forecasters say, the American economy would need additional rollbacks in labor regulations, a $1 trillion infrastructure plan and another round of tax cuts.
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Laughably, what they said didn't work the first time so they propose more of the same that didn't work.

What's that quote about "fool me once?"
 
GreatNews2night said:
I am afraid we'll face a recession relatively soon given the irresponsible Trump tax cuts, but I don't root for one. I think we need to kick Trump out, but I am not stupid enough to root for a recession to accomplish it, because it will hurt me and my fellow Americans.
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Why would tax cuts cause a recession?
 
MTAtech said:
Laughably, what they said didn't work the first time so they propose more of the same that didn't work.

What's that quote about "fool me once?"
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It did work. THe economy has never been better. Your TDS just wont let you admit that.
 
Fletch said:
It did work. THe economy has never been better. Your TDS just wont let you admit that.
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As I previously said, the economy was fine before the tax cuts and the tax cuts only accomplished juicing one quarter while adding long term debt. No objective person would conclude that the tax cuts were an economically sound idea. They neither paid for themselves nor provided long term growth, promised by those who proposed them.

As the article that I linked stated:
Most forecasters project economic growth of about 2 percent in the medium and long run for the United States, but that rate would fall far short of the heady promises that President Trump has madeabout his ability to fuel the American economy. Mr. Trump has predicted growth of as much as 5 percent, while his advisers have routinely promoted 3 percent as the new normal. Growth averaged just over 2 percent from 2010, the first full year after the Great Recession ended, through 2016, when Mr. Trump was elected to the White House.
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In other words, growth will be the same as under Obama. No economic miracles. While this should put to rest, finally, the notion that tax cuts are a magic elixir, the right wing will still cling to that idea because it’s their religion.
 
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Fletch said:
Why would tax cuts cause a recession?
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The effect initially boosts the economy but then it fades. Unpaid for spending above what the government collects, increases the debt; the more debt and fiscal deficit, the more the currency is weakened, the more inflation happens (prompting interest rate increases), the less money is available for governmental spending - and the freed money for the private sector often goes offshore and is not reinvested in production - and also the bonds market could react negatively, lending could become more expensive, ultimately leading to recession.

The problem with "the economy has never been better" is that macro-economic effects tend to be delayed by at least a couple of years. Wait two more years, and we'll see if "the economy has never been better."

Here, read this:

Goldman Sachs: Donald Trump's tax cuts could cause recession
 
MTAtech said:
The economy was fine before the tax-cuts. Try to keep up. The GOP claimed that the tax-cuts would do all kinds of things, such as a vast investment boom and huge long-term growth. The vast investment boom was supposed to fuel all kinds of things, such as large wage increases. Well, the vast investment boom never happened, with corporations deciding to buy back their own stock. There was minor wage growth about equal to inflation. Annual GDP growth was within statistical norms of the last five years. However, quarterly GDP growth was a sugar-rush, 4.2, dropping to 3.5 and then to 2.2.

So, now we are having Trump's own team admit that GDP growth will be the same as Obama's GDP growth, except that we'll have less government revenue.
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Wall Street was fine before the TAX CUTS..........not Main Street.
 
RetiredUSN said:
Wall Street was fine before the TAX CUTS..........not Main Street.
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"Main Street" had a 3.7% unemployment rate in Nov 2018 before the tax-cuts. It jumped to 4.0% in Jan 2019, after the tax-cuts and is now at 3.8%. There is no evidence that "Main St" Americans are even marginally better-off than they were before the cuts.

The tax-cuts were supposed to usher in investment, yet even Wall Street indices are the same as they were before the tax-cut.
 
MTAtech said:
Their 2019 Economic Report of the President has scaled back its growth projection to below 3%. See page 527, “current-law baseline forecast is for output growth to moderate as the capital-to-output ratio asymptotically approaches a higher steady-state level in response to business tax reform, and as the near-term effects of the TCJA’s individual provisions on the rate of growth dissipate into a permanent level effect.” That blather means that the Trump tax cuts temporarily stimulated the economy by jacking up the deficit, but now that stimulative effect is wearing off, the growth level is expected to sink below 3% a year.

In other words, the "mediocre" economic growth that those with Trump Devotion Syndrome (TDS) have been telling us existed under Obama, is going to be the standard for the Trump Administration. Gone are the 4-6% growth projections previously boasted about.

To re-emphasize my point, the 2017 tax-cut gave the economy a temporary and slight jolt at a huge permanent cost to the Treasury.
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Any idea what 3%growth would provide in dollars to the U.S. Economy on a 22 trillion dollar economy? So as I continue to notice you refuse to offer alternatives to Trump policies and just continue to spout DNC talking points that aren't a reason to vote against Trump in the next election. You think the group of socialists running for President on the Democratic Side are going to do better in GDP growth? If so explain how?
 
MTAtech said:
"Main Street" had a 3.7% unemployment rate in Nov 2018 before the tax-cuts. It jumped to 4.0% in Jan 2019, after the tax-cuts and is now at 3.8%. There is no evidence that "Main St" Americans are even marginally better-off than they were before the cuts.

The tax-cuts were supposed to usher in investment, yet even Wall Street indices are the same as they were before the tax-cut.
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Mainstreet had a Gov't shutdown that skewed the data and that data is back in line now, 4.3 million part time for economic reasons are included in the employment numbers today which show 5 million more new jobs created since Trump took office. That number vs. the 5.7 million Obama left Trump and the over 8 million during the Obama first term. You see, data confuses you but never dampens your ignorance of economic policies and results
 
Conservative said:
Any idea what 3%growth would provide in dollars to the U.S. Economy on a 22 trillion dollar economy? So as I continue to notice you refuse to offer alternatives to Trump policies and just continue to spout DNC talking points that aren't a reason to vote against Trump in the next election. You think the group of socialists running for President on the Democratic Side are going to do better in GDP growth? If so explain how?
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Except we don't have 3% and the Trump Admin admits that growth will be in the 2% range for the conceivable future.

There are no Socialists running for president. NEXT! No soup for you!
 
MTAtech said:
Except we don't have 3% and the Trump Admin admits that growth will be in the 2% range for the conceivable future.

There are no Socialists running for president. NEXT! No soup for you!
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You always buy predictions and ignore actual results, why is that? the 2018 numbers will be updated the end of this month, want to wager that it isn't over 3%?

No socialist running? Seems you have a problem understanding what the word means. Still waiting for an alternative to the Trump policies but like the Alinsky playbook advertises, continue to spout rhetoric ignoring what anyone else says or any data the refutes it.

As I have pointed out and you ignored, the Trump economy generated 2 trillion in GDP Growth in 2 years, 5 million jobs, record state and local tax revenue, record charitable contributions, strong poll numbers on the economy, and more spendable income in the hands of the consumer.

In your world you prefer gov't spending to be a larger component of GDP totally ignoring that we have state and local governments whose responsibilities are what you have given the federal bureaucrats. What you have gained from that ideology are career politicians and record dependence on the federal gov't taking money away from the states.

As long as the federal bureaucrats continue to promote massive spending and higher taxes they will continue to lose national elections appealing only the the fringe kooks on the left. Personal responsibility, state and local responsibilities are both foreign concepts to you.
 
Conservative said:
You always buy predictions and ignore actual results, why is that? the 2018 numbers will be updated the end of this month, want to wager that it isn't over 3%?
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I am sure that irony escapes you. I was quoting the actual number of 2.9% that was currently released. YOU are predicting a revised number will be 3% or more. Yet, I'm the one you say relies upon predictions.
 
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