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A Soybean Surge Makes Trump’s Trade War Look Deceptively Good

MTAtech

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A Soybean Surge Makes Trump’s Trade War Look Deceptively Good

July 11, 2018


WASHINGTON — President Trump’s trade war is expected to temporarily bolster United States economic growth, in part because Beijing tried to beat the clock on Mr. Trump’s tariffs by stocking up on American soybeans, crude oil and other exports.
Economists are predicting that the gross domestic product for the second quarter could reach 5 percent when the preliminary numbers are released on July 27. The United States trade gap with China has narrowed, as more American products were shipped to Beijing ahead of the tariffs, which went into effect on July 6.
But both effects are expected to be fleeting, and the short-term economic improvement could turn into a long-term loss if both countries follow through with their threats to continue escalating tariffs against each other.

“They will dance, they will sing, they will say, look at the plunge in the trade deficit in the second quarter,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist for Pantheon Macroeconomics. “That is of course complete drivel.”

As I've been saying for the last few weeks, one quarter GDP numbers means nothing. The plus 5% growth in a quarter in 2014 wasn't an indication of long-term growth. Likewise, as this article states, if the next quarter looks high, it may be an illusion caused by soy over-buyng.
 
I feel for farmers who are getting 10 year low futures prices but China has no choice but to buy the same huge amounts that they have been, they will buy from somebody, if it is not america then we will back-fill who ever sells to them.

I am going to wait till the end of the year to decide if we have a problem or not.
 
I feel for farmers who are getting 10 year low futures prices but China has no choice but to buy the same huge amounts that they have been, they will buy from somebody, if it is not america then we will back-fill who ever sells to them.

I am going to wait till the end of the year to decide if we have a problem or not.
I feel for the farmers too and how they are getting screwed by the guy who said he was their champion.
 
I feel for farmers who are getting 10 year low futures prices but China has no choice but to buy the same huge amounts that they have been, they will buy from somebody, if it is not america then we will back-fill who ever sells to them.

I am going to wait till the end of the year to decide if we have a problem or not.

I don't think so...
 
As I've been saying for the last few weeks, one quarter GDP numbers means nothing. The plus 5% growth in a quarter in 2014 wasn't an indication of long-term growth. Likewise, as this article states, if the next quarter looks high, it may be an illusion caused by soy over-buyng.

You are probably right and that this is the zenith before the roller coaster plunges. But let us wait and see shall we? I do not think one should use evidence of good things happening as evidence to demonstrate just how awful things are about to get.
 
You are probably right and that this is the zenith before the roller coaster plunges. But let us wait and see shall we? I do not think one should use evidence of good things happening as evidence to demonstrate just how awful things are about to get.

What happened? In spring the US economy was chugging along nicely, nearly full employment, GDP rising steadily, stock markets rising steadily, the strongest recovery from a recession in memory and Republicans bragging about Trump's economy, and then suddenly he has to blow it all up and start over. Suddenly the USA hasn't been the most powerful nation in the world, it's been the world's doormat, been robbed and cheated and 'treated badly', and only Trump can make it right.
Does anyone's bull**** meter pick up a signal?
 
I feel for the farmers too and how they are getting screwed by the guy who said he was their champion.

PERMANENT markets have been lost for next year with soybeans to Brazil and more. China will only take pigs from big pig farms they own here. Commodity prices are way down, with China buying at extremely low rates.

Credit will be higher and more difficult to get next year, when we enter a very real TDS—trump depression syndrome. All costs continue to skyrocket for farmers, with shortages now on anhydrous ammonia, forcing us into more expensive liquid nitrogen.

Inflation is now part of the equation, and corporatists are already scaling back on Christmas. goPCs will do no better than limp into the mid-terms.
 
I don't think so...

The super thing is that we will know in a very short time what reality says....so there in no need to guess.

You have been disappointing lately.
 
All of these idiots rooting against America...gotta love it when lefters say "I love America!"
 
All of these idiots rooting against America...gotta love it when lefters say "I love America!"

No one is rooting against the US, but they are very concerned with Trump's actions are and will harm the Nation. What is troubling is that Trump's fan club support him no matter how much he damages this Nation and have the nerve to act as if they are Patriots. Have you disagreed with anything trump has done, anything at all?
 
PERMANENT markets have been lost for next year with soybeans to Brazil and more. China will only take pigs from big pig farms they own here. Commodity prices are way down, with China buying at extremely low rates.

Credit will be higher and more difficult to get next year, when we enter a very real TDS—trump depression syndrome. All costs continue to skyrocket for farmers, with shortages now on anhydrous ammonia, forcing us into more expensive liquid nitrogen.

Inflation is now part of the equation, and corporatists are already scaling back on Christmas. goPCs will do no better than limp into the mid-terms.

inflation is currently at a seven year high; thanks for over heating the economy dickhead Trump ..........
 
All of these idiots rooting against America...gotta love it when lefters say "I love America!"

no one has to cheer for the failure of OUR nation; the voters insured that failure at the ballot box in November, 2016

~60 million voters voted for failure and I don't believe any of those votes were cast by any, "lefters"

good luck with your Trump**** .............
 
You are probably right and that this is the zenith before the roller coaster plunges. But let us wait and see shall we? I do not think one should use evidence of good things happening as evidence to demonstrate just how awful things are about to get.

I think that logic may be flawed. It feels great to sky dive, but if you're doing so without a parachute, the evidence of that great feeling of free fall most certainly demonstrates just how awful things are about to get... ;)
 
All of these idiots rooting against America...gotta love it when lefters say "I love America!"
No one is rooting against the US, but they are very concerned with Trump's actions are and will harm the Nation. What is troubling is that Trump's fan club support him no matter how much he damages this Nation and have the nerve to act as if they are Patriots. Have you disagreed with anything trump has done, anything at all?
Exactly. To paraphrase H.L. Mencken, the notion that someone who is critical of absurd policy is one who hates his country is naive and usually idiotic. He is, more likely, one who likes his country more than the rest of us, and is thus more disturbed than the rest of us when he sees it debauched.
 
Paul Krugman estimates that the temporary surge in exports, as foreign buyers stock-up before retaliatory tariffs hit, will "add around 0.6 percentage points to the U.S. economy’s growth rate in the second quarter.Unfortunately, we’ll give all that growth back and more in the months ahead. Thanks to the looming trade war, U.S. soybean prices have plummeted, and the farmers of Iowa are facing a rude awakening." [link]
 
As I've been saying for the last few weeks, one quarter GDP numbers means nothing. The plus 5% growth in a quarter in 2014 wasn't an indication of long-term growth. Likewise, as this article states, if the next quarter looks high, it may be an illusion caused by soy over-buyng.

yes we know your predictions and lack of understanding of our economic activity and components. We know you are a big govt. liberal who ignores the value of people keeping more of what they earn. We know how much you truly care about the plight of the American taxpayers due to your vehement attacks on people keeping more of what they earn and all the predictions that the suspected trade war will hurt this country. The problem with you and the left is you have no understanding as to the components of GDP and the percentage each contribute with all predictions being just that a PREDICTION none of which matter.

The American people see the benefits of the Trump economic policies in their paychecks and the affects of America First in leveling the playing field against foreign countries. The trade gap is due to manipulation by foreign countries and we finally have a President addressing that manipulation. Isn't that what a President should do?

I have no idea what you people want since a stronger economic growth, job creation, better pay, more spendable income certainly don't appear to be on your radar. Tell us exactly what you want Trump to do or what you expect the Democrats to do if they retake Congress?
 
Paul Krugman estimates that the temporary surge in exports, as foreign buyers stock-up before retaliatory tariffs hit, will "add around 0.6 percentage points to the U.S. economy’s growth rate in the second quarter.Unfortunately, we’ll give all that growth back and more in the months ahead. Thanks to the looming trade war, U.S. soybean prices have plummeted, and the farmers of Iowa are facing a rude awakening." [link]

Awesome. 6% then making the GDP growth over 4% for the quarter and with the 2% first qtr. 2018 up 1% from first qtr 2017 that would put Trump over 3% something Obama never generated. Thanks to people like you the American people are more dependent, have less spendable income, and fewer full time jobs. You aren't in the majority any more.
 
Awesome. 6% then making the GDP growth over 4% for the quarter and with the 2% first qtr. 2018 up 1% from first qtr 2017 that would put Trump over 3% something Obama never generated. Thanks to people like you the American people are more dependent, have less spendable income, and fewer full time jobs. You aren't in the majority any more.
I'll ignore post #16 because it's your usual anti-liberal rant blather. On the above, and as I have been saying, one quarter GDP numbers tell us absolutely nothing about the direction of the economy. One quarter in the late 1970s GDP growth was 16%. Remember how that ushered in the Carter boom? Me neither.

This is far more telling:
Why investors should worry about plunging copper and soybean prices
 
I'll ignore post #16 because it's your usual anti-liberal rant blather. On the above, and as I have been saying, one quarter GDP numbers tell us absolutely nothing about the direction of the economy. One quarter in the late 1970s GDP growth was 16%. Remember how that ushered in the Carter boom? Me neither.

This is far more telling:
Why investors should worry about plunging copper and soybean prices

Unless of course it is Obama's economy, right? you want to ignore trends when they don't suit your agenda and continue to post anything negative you can find without having actual data to support you. Every post you make is speculation on the future and when the future doesn't generate the present comments you ignore them and are off to something else to demonize Trump on showing nothing but partisanship and hatred for Trump. Asked you a question and you ignored it, what exactly do you expect the Democrats to do if they retake Congress since this seems to be your goal?

My so called usual anti liberal rants are based upon data, something you have yet to counter or when you do counter it isn't in context. What percentage of GDP does trade create? What are the four components of GDP? Why do you support foreign trade practices but not support your own country's efforts to level the playing field?
 
...
Why do you support foreign trade practices but not support your own country's efforts to level the playing field?
I'll only address the above because the rest have been asked and answered, as the lawyers say.

The question presumes the playing field is not level, which is untrue. The world's major trading partners have relatively free trade. While Trump rants about other countries' unfair trade practices (and his enablers parrot the falsehood) a complaint that has some validity for China, although virtually none for Canada or the European Union -- he hasn't made any coherent demands. That is, he has given no indication what any of the countries hit by his tariffs could do to satisfy him, except remove "horrible" tariffs that they don't have -- leaving them with no option except retaliation. So he isn't acting like someone threatening a trade war to win concessions; he's acting like someone who just wants a trade war.

Given that trade wars, apart from what Swampy says, are not good and easy to win. In fact, lots of Americans are going to suffer due to sloppy, incoherent and un-thought-out trade policy. There will be unnecessary job losses in farming and manufacturing, as well as increases in consumer prices for cars and other finished goods.

Essentially, I, and others, have sound reasons to oppose this extraordinarily stupid policy.
 
No one is rooting against the US, but they are very concerned with Trump's actions are and will harm the Nation. What is troubling is that Trump's fan club support him no matter how much he damages this Nation and have the nerve to act as if they are Patriots. Have you disagreed with anything trump has done, anything at all?

Point out some of this "real damage". You can't. You just don't like President Trump. and, you consistently hope that America fails.
 
no one has to cheer for the failure of OUR nation; the voters insured that failure at the ballot box in November, 2016

~60 million voters voted for failure and I don't believe any of those votes were cast by any, "lefters"

good luck with your Trump**** .............

We don't need luck. President Trump has, so far, brought in a period of peace and prosperity like never before!
 
Exactly. To paraphrase H.L. Mencken, the notion that someone who is critical of absurd policy is one who hates his country is naive and usually idiotic. He is, more likely, one who likes his country more than the rest of us, and is thus more disturbed than the rest of us when he sees it debauched.

LOL...your ilk NEVER said a word while barry was on his apology tour, actually weakening America.
 
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