The fiscal picture is worse than it looks—and it looks bad

Conservative · Apr 17, 2018

MTAtech said:
Actually, that's not true. The "previous president" made it so the upper-end of the Bush tax-cuts expired in 2013, over the objection of the Republicans. As a result, income rose and the deficit shrank by 75%. Now, due to the GOP tax-cut fetish, deficits will rise in relatively good economic times.

......

You don't get it and probably never will as you have zero credibility. The past President is out of office and left us with a 1.2% GDP growth, had he not created so many part time jobs maybe revenue would be higher but you divert from that reality to focus on PREDICTIONS yet failing to explain how the additional 3 million employed since Trump took office, the 1 million more full time employees that were part time for economic reasons, and the doubling of the Obama GDP rate will impact that deficit. As usual you post negatives but when those negatives never happen you are on to some other anti Trump thread. Are you being paid to post negatives? don't you realize that posting and being rebuked destroys your credibility?

late · Apr 17, 2018

washunut said:
Please explain how lowering the corporate tax rate making producing things here will push us into recession?

Trickle down doesn't work.

This is the short version:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2017-12-12/stiglitz-says-u-s-tax-bill-is-the-worst-video

Here's a longer version:

Estimating the Long Run Growth Effects of Tax Cuts: An Example

MTAtech · Apr 17, 2018

Conservative said:
You don't get it and probably never will as you have zero credibility. The past President is out of office and left us with a 1.2% GDP growth, had he not created so many part time jobs maybe revenue would be higher but you divert from that reality to focus on PREDICTIONS yet failing to explain how the additional 3 million employed since Trump took office, the 1 million more full time employees that were part time for economic reasons, and the doubling of the Obama GDP rate will impact that deficit. As usual you post negatives but when those negatives never happen you are on to some other anti Trump thread. Are you being paid to post negatives? don't you realize that posting and being rebuked destroys your credibility?

None of that, including the insults, have anything to do with the discussion at hand.

It appears you are a one-trick-pony -- only able to regurgitate the same blather over-and-over again, without regard to the context or the thread. What do I mean? You throw the same nonsense in the thread about Syria.

Floridafan · Apr 17, 2018

Conservative said:
You don't get it and probably never will as you have zero credibility. The past President is out of office and left us with a 1.2% GDP growth, had he not created so many part time jobs maybe revenue would be higher but you divert from that reality to focus on PREDICTIONS yet failing to explain how the additional 3 million employed since Trump took office, the 1 million more full time employees that were part time for economic reasons, and the doubling of the Obama GDP rate will impact that deficit. As usual you post negatives but when those negatives never happen you are on to some other anti Trump thread. Are you being paid to post negatives? don't you realize that posting and being rebuked destroys your credibility?

Try this on for size:
Just last week, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) found that the Republican tax cuts will fuel historic deficits. In March the federal deficit was $208 billion, an increase of $32 billion from last year. The Treasury Department had already said that the deficit increased 18.4 percent in February compared to 2017. GOP tax cuts are estimated to add $1 trillion or more to federal budget deficits over a decade, even after economic growth is taken into account.

Conservative · Apr 17, 2018

MTAtech said:
None of that, including the insults, have anything to do with the discussion at hand.

It appears you are a one-trick-pony -- only able to regurgitate the same blather over-and-over again, without regard to the context or the thread. What do I mean? You throw the same nonsense in the thread about Syria.

No, you posted PROJECTIONS and pass them off as fact when the reality is 2018 is just half over and you have no idea what the deficit is going to be nor the reality of the 3 million NEW taxpayers or the doubling of the GDP percentage is going to be. My one trick pony as you call it generates facts, logic, and common sense where yours is nothing more than indoctrinated rhetoric from radicals who are fighting to keep power that more spendable income in the hands of the taxpayers will take away.

Context of the Thread?? OMY, fiscal picture worse than looks? Projections aren't reality, 3 million jobs, 1 million more full time employment. 3% GDP growth is reality NOT PREDICTIONS. The only nonsense is coming from radicals like you who pass off predications as reality and ignoring actual results

Conservative · Apr 17, 2018

Floridafan said:
Try this on for size:
Just last week, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) found that the Republican tax cuts will fuel historic deficits. In March the federal deficit was $208 billion, an increase of $32 billion from last year. The Treasury Department had already said that the deficit increased 18.4 percent in February compared to 2017. GOP tax cuts are estimated to add $1 trillion or more to federal budget deficits over a decade, even after economic growth is taken into account.

How accurate has the CBO been with predictions years out? Did the CBO consider the 3 million new taxpayers we have now or the 1 million more full time employees that converted from being part time and those affects on revenue? Did the CBO recognize the over 3% GDP growth we have now? We are half way through 2018 and I will wait until the actual results hit as the tax cuts and income from those 3 million and 1 million more full time employees starts hits.

Obama ran four years of trillion dollar deficits so where was your outrage and did CBO predict that, NO!! Why is it CBO predictions are only used when negative and why is it that CBO always changes their estimates but when those original are wrong the radicals ignore it?

Conservative · Apr 17, 2018

late said:
Trickle down doesn't work.

This is the short version:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2017-12-12/stiglitz-says-u-s-tax-bill-is-the-worst-video

Here's a longer version:

Estimating the Long Run Growth Effects of Tax Cuts: An Example

So you have a problem with tax cuts that create economic activity and more federal revenue due to the jobs being created and the economic growth thus profits generated? what is it about the radical left that creates this kind of loyalty to a failed economic ideology?? how does someone else keeping more of what they earn hurt you, your family or the country? As has been pointed out here and ignored Treasury shows the revenue generated after those Reagan and Bush tax cuts were fully implemented, why are you ignoring the revenue growth? Spending causes debt not tax cuts

Floridafan · Apr 17, 2018

Conservative said:
How accurate has the CBO been with predictions years out? Did the CBO consider the 3 million new taxpayers we have now or the 1 million more full time employees that converted from being part time and those affects on revenue? Did the CBO recognize the over 3% GDP growth we have now? We are half way through 2018 and I will wait until the actual results hit as the tax cuts and income from those 3 million and 1 million more full time employees starts hits.

Obama ran four years of trillion dollar deficits so where was your outrage and did CBO predict that, NO!! Why is it CBO predictions are only used when negative and why is it that CBO always changes their estimates but when those original are wrong the radicals ignore it?

Are you more knowledgeable and experienced at these things that the CBO? They have consistently been non partisan and report factually. So its time to deal with the disaster just lying ahead. If you want to cheer GDP growth realize that it comes from tax cuts, the same tax cuts that will fuel high increases in our deficits and our debt.

MTAtech · Apr 17, 2018

Conservative said:
No, you posted PROJECTIONS and pass them off as fact when the reality is 2018 is just half over and you have no idea what the deficit is going to be nor the reality of the 3 million NEW taxpayers or the doubling of the GDP percentage is going to be. My one trick pony as you call it generates facts, logic, and common sense where yours is nothing more than indoctrinated rhetoric from radicals who are fighting to keep power that more spendable income in the hands of the taxpayers will take away.

Context of the Thread?? OMY, fiscal picture worse than looks? Projections aren't reality, 3 million jobs, 1 million more full time employment. 3% GDP growth is reality NOT PREDICTIONS. The only nonsense is coming from radicals like you who pass off predications as reality and ignoring actual results

News Flash: I didn't create the numbers. They are the best available using established sources. Floridafan gave you projections from the CBO. You quote a 3% growth and presume that will the annual GDP growth for 2018. That is FAR from established. Even at a presumed 3% annual growth, that is insufficient growth to add to revenues to offset the tax-cut created deficits.

Conservative · Apr 17, 2018

MTAtech said:
News Flash: I didn't create the numbers. They are the best available using established sources. Floridafan gave you projections from the CBO. You quote a 3% growth and presume that will the annual GDP growth for 2018. That is FAR from established. Even at a presumed 3% annual growth, that is insufficient growth to add to revenues to offset the tax-cut created deficits.

No you didn't but you interpreted them through your partisan leftwing radical lens. I asked you a question. What isn't predicted is the 3 million new taxpayers and the 1 million actually now working full time vs. part time thus paying more in taxes, that is REALITY

What you fail to recognize and continue to ignore is that tax cuts aren't an expanse and TAX CUTS DON'T reduce revenue when economic activity is created. CBO has never been accurate and always makes corrections, corrections you always signore when those corrections create better results because that isn't what you want to believe. your belief that 3%+ growth and millions of jobs being created won't change economic growth and activity is nothing more than your partisan hatred for capitalism and resulting loss of power by the left. Spending causes debt so when are you going to address spending?

Conservative · Apr 17, 2018

Floridafan said:
Are you more knowledgeable and experienced at these things that the CBO? They have consistently been non partisan and report factually. So its time to deal with the disaster just lying ahead. If you want to cheer GDP growth realize that it comes from tax cuts, the same tax cuts that will fuel high increases in our deficits and our debt.

It doesn't take a lot of effort to find out the accuracy of CBO so why don't you do some research? Did CBO take into account the 3 million more taxpayers that have been created THIS YEAR or the 1 million more Part time for economic reason employees working full time and now paying more in taxes? How about the 3% GDP growth

Why do you buy only the negatives and not celebrate the positives? Why do you buy the headlines and not read the entire story? Predictions of disasters lying ahead because people are getting to keep more of what they earn? Don't you realize how bogus that argument is? Where was your outrage when Obama added 9.3 trillion to the debt and we really got nothing for it

Floridafan · Apr 17, 2018

Conservative said:
It doesn't take a lot of effort to find out the accuracy of CBO so why don't you do some research? Did CBO take into account the 3 million more taxpayers that have been created THIS YEAR or the 1 million more Part time for economic reason employees working full time and now paying more in taxes? How about the 3% GDP growth

Why do you buy only the negatives and not celebrate the positives? Why do you buy the headlines and not read the entire story? Predictions of disasters lying ahead because people are getting to keep more of what they earn? Don't you realize how bogus that argument is? Where was your outrage when Obama added 9.3 trillion to the debt and we really got nothing for it

The fact is that deficits are going up and so are interest rates. It represents everything you whined about for the 8 years of Obamas presidency. Now it all coming true, just how much is our interest on the debt going to increase? How are we going to pay for it, especially when rates get to 6-7 or 8%. If t you think deficits are bad right now, just wait.
By the way, the GDP growth you have been so excited about, in 2017, was 2.3%.

Conservative · Apr 17, 2018

Floridafan said:
The fact is that deficits are going up and so are interest rates. It represents everything you whined about for the 8 years of Obamas presidency. Now it all coming true, just how much is our interest on the debt going to increase? How are we going to pay for it, especially when rates get to 6-7 or 8%. If t you think deficits are bad right now, just wait.
By the way, the GDP growth you have been so excited about, in 2017, was 2.3%.

What spending have the democrats proposed stopping? spending causes debt not tax cuts and anything that puts money into the pockets of the consumer is a good thing although it takes power away from the bureaucrats. Why is giving them more money to spend so important to you and how can you reward politicians that have created the debt with more tax revenue? Every dollar that goes to the federal govt. is one less dollar in the state, why doesn't that resonate with you?

Yes 2017 was 2.3% because Obama's last qtr was 1.2%, Seems a slight fact that you ignored just like you ignore anything positive like the 3 million new taxpayers that have been created over what Obama left us. Your outrage over the deficit is purely partisan as you ignored yours and how that debt was created. Your concern about interest rates is also noted but not during the past 8 years when the Fed made Obama look better than he actually was.

MTAtech · Apr 17, 2018

Floridafan said:
The fact is that deficits are going up and so are interest rates. It represents everything you whined about for the 8 years of Obamas presidency. Now it all coming true, just how much is our interest on the debt going to increase? How are we going to pay for it, especially when rates get to 6-7 or 8%. If t you think deficits are bad right now, just wait.
By the way, the GDP growth you have been so excited about, in 2017, was 2.3%.

Thanks. When deficits represent about 5% of GDP, a growth rate of 3% doesn't improve economic outlook. A 2.3% certainly does not. Moreover, Con likes to quote figures that put Obama in the worst possible light -- even when for many years Obama's GDP growth beat Trump's.

From https://www.thebalance.com/us-gdp-by-year-3305543

Year Nom GDP Real GDP p%
2010 $14.964 $14.784 2.5%
2011 $15.518 $15.021 1.6%
2012 $16.155 $15.355 2.2%
2013 $16.692 $15.612 1.7%
2014 $17.428 $16.013 2.6%
2015 $18.121 $16.472 2.9%
2016 $18.625 $16.716 1.5%
2017 $19.391 $17.096 2.3%

The harsh reality is that we aren't going to get the high growth rates of previous decades when baby boomers are retiring.

upsideguy · Apr 17, 2018

washunut said:
The new part is it gets to written off in year 1.

No. Section 179 was always about writting off CapEx in the first year. We have had that for 30 years. The only thing that has changed is the cap on the amount (from 520K to 1MM). Section 179 was designed to favor small business. The bigger limits help larger small businesses.

https://www.cricpa.com/tax-reform-bonus-depreciation-section-179-expense/

Floridafan · Apr 17, 2018

Conservative said:
What spending have the democrats proposed stopping? spending causes debt not tax cuts and anything that puts money into the pockets of the consumer is a good thing although it takes power away from the bureaucrats. Why is giving them more money to spend so important to you and how can you reward politicians that have created the debt with more tax revenue? Every dollar that goes to the federal govt. is one less dollar in the state, why doesn't that resonate with you?

Yes 2017 was 2.3% because Obama's last qtr was 1.2%, Seems a slight fact that you ignored just like you ignore anything positive like the 3 million new taxpayers that have been created over what Obama left us. Your outrage over the deficit is purely partisan as you ignored yours and how that debt was created. Your concern about interest rates is also noted but not during the past 8 years when the Fed made Obama look better than he actually was.

Its very difficult to have a reasonable discussion with you, when all you do is lie. The final quarter of the Obama administration had a growth of 1.8%, and the first quarter of 2017 had growth go 1.2%.
Whatever job growth you cheer for since Trump took office was less, repeat less, than Obama did in a similar time frame.

You whined for 8 years about defats and high interest rates, now that we are getting them you cheer.

MTAtech · Apr 17, 2018

upsideguy said:
No. Section 179 was always about writting off CapEx in the first year. We have had that for 30 years. The only thing that has changed is the cap on the amount (from 520K to 1MM). Section 179 was designed to favor small business. The bigger limits help larger small businesses.

https://www.cricpa.com/tax-reform-bonus-depreciation-section-179-expense/

and as I wrote in post #48, when tax rates are low the effect of the write-off is lower too, decreasing, not increasing, any incentive to invest in plant and equipment. Thus, the narrative that cutting taxes on corporations increases internal investment is fallacious.

Thus, if a piece of equipment cost $1 million. If the old tax-rate was 30%, the after-tax cost of the equipment is $700,000. However, if the tax-rate is 15%, the after-tax cost is $850,000.

Conservative · Apr 17, 2018

Floridafan said:
Its very difficult to have a reasonable discussion with you, when all you do is lie. The final quarter of the Obama administration had a growth of 1.8%, and the first quarter of 2017 had growth go 1.2%.
Whatever job growth you cheer for since Trump took office was less, repeat less, than Obama did in a similar time frame.

You whined for 8 years about defats and high interest rates, now that we are getting them you cheer.

No sorry the final qtr. of Obama was first qtr 2017 as Trump was taking office and had none of his cabinet in place or economic policies moving forward. Even the most partisan admit that the first qtr of any new President belongs to the last President. So yes, it is very difficult dealing with true partisans called moderates like you

Trump's job growth? He isn't competing against himself he is competing against Obama and here are the facts. Is 2018 Obama's too?
When did I whine about interest rates during the Obama term with the Fed pumping trillions to keep them down. You are delusional

Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey
Original Data Value

Series Id: LNS12000000
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (Seas) Employment Level
Labor force status: Employed
Type of data: Number in thousands
Age: 16 years and over
Years: 2008 to 2018

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2008 146378 146156 146086 146132 145908 145737 145532 145203 145076 144802 144100 143369
2009 142152 141640 140707 140656 140248 140009 139901 139492 138818 138432 138659 138013
2010 138438 138581 138751 139297 139241 139141 139179 139438 139396 139119 139044 139301
2011 139250 139394 139639 139586 139624 139384 139524 139942 140183 140368 140826 140902
2012 141584 141858 142036 141899 142206 142391 142292 142291 143044 143431 143333 143330
2013 143292 143362 143316 143635 143882 143999 144264 144326 144418 143537 144479 144778
2014 145122 145161 145673 145680 145825 146267 146401 146522 146752 147411 147391 147597
2015 148113 148100 148175 148505 148788 148806 148830 149136 148810 149254 149486 150135
2016 150576 151005 151229 150978 151048 151164 151484 151687 151815 151939 152126 152233
2017 152076 152511 153064 153161 152892 153250 153511 153471 154324 153846 153917 154021
2018 154430 155215 155178

holbritter · Apr 17, 2018

Conservative said:
That question was for anyone wanting the Democrats to retake Congress, care to take a shot at it?

Then it's not for me.

Floridafan · Apr 17, 2018

Conservative said:
No sorry the final qtr. of Obama was first qtr 2017 as Trump was taking office and had none of his cabinet in place or economic policies moving forward. Even the most partisan admit that the first qtr of any new President belongs to the last President. So yes, it is very difficult dealing with true partisans called moderates like you

Trump's job growth? He isn't competing against himself he is competing against Obama and here are the facts. Is 2018 Obama's too?
When did I whine about interest rates during the Obama term with the Fed pumping trillions to keep them down. You are delusional

Every single month, every single week, every single day for 8 years you whined about deficits, you whined about inflation, you whined about interest rates, and now its all come to fruition thanks to Trump. How are we going to pay for the massive increases in our debt, considering the higher interest rates?

Now, lets talk jobs. In 15 months there have been 2.8 million created, although the last two months are only preliminary. Taking 2.8 million into 15 months, gives us 188,000 per month. That is what you get all excited about?

Conservative · Apr 17, 2018

Floridafan said:
Every single month, every single week, every single day for 8 years you whined about deficits, you whined about inflation, you whined about interest rates, and now its all come to fruition thanks to Trump. How are we going to pay for the massive increases in our debt, considering the higher interest rates?

Now, lets talk jobs. In 15 months there have been 2.8 million created, although the last two months are only preliminary. Taking 2.8 million into 15 months, gives us 188,000 per month. That is what you get all excited about?

Whining? you mean pointing out the failure of Obama and his results? that is whining? Post where I whined at all about interest rates and inflation. You really don't pay much attention to what is posted do you>

let's talk about jobs? 155 million employed today vs. 152 when Obama left office that is 3 million, 700,000 fewer people working part time for economic reasons that are now working full time. That is reality and BLS.gov. You cannot seem to grasp the concept that Trump is competing against Obama results same month last year not against himself. Interesting how people like you cannot admit when wrong and celebrate actual success?

Obama average 13.3% U-6 and left us at 9.2% never achieving pre recession levels so for 9.3 trillion added to the debt we got failed economic policies and results

Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey
Original Data Value

Series Id: LNS12032194
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (Seas) Employment Level - Part-Time for Economic Reasons, All Industries
Labor force status: Employed
Type of data: Number in thousands
Age: 16 years and over
Hours at work: 1 to 34 hours
Reasons work not as scheduled: Economic reasons
Worker status/schedules: At work part time
Years: 2007 to 2018

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2007 4279 4220 4253 4313 4473 4342 4410 4576 4521 4325 4494 4618
2008 4846 4902 4904 5220 5286 5540 5930 5851 6148 6690 7311 8029
2009 8046 8796 9145 8908 9113 9024 8891 9029 8847 8979 9114 9098
2010 8530 8936 9233 9178 8845 8577 8500 8800 9246 8837 8873 8935
2011 8470 8464 8645 8652 8576 8427 8281 8788 9166 8657 8447 8171
2012 8305 8238 7775 7913 8101 8072 8082 7974 8671 8203 8166 7943
2013 8151 8178 7722 7964 7937 8103 8099 7816 7764 7936 7718 7827
2014 7302 7304 7451 7516 7260 7425 7400 7169 7007 7031 6885 6817
2015 6820 6693 6653 6622 6643 6386 6234 6411 6025 5807 6159 6027
2016 5960 6021 6099 6027 6491 5751 5898 5977 5893 5955 5719 5554
2017 5776 5670 5500 5309 5268 5264 5236 5209 5148 4880 4851 4915
2018 4989 5160

MTAtech · Apr 17, 2018

Floridafan said:
Every single month, every single week, every single day for 8 years you whined about deficits, you whined about inflation, you whined about interest rates, and now its all come to fruition thanks to Trump. How are we going to pay for the massive increases in our debt, considering the higher interest rates?

Now, lets talk jobs. In 15 months there have been 2.8 million created, although the last two months are only preliminary. Taking 2.8 million into 15 months, gives us 188,000 per month. That is what you get all excited about?

I couldn't have said it better myself. For perspective. According to The Balance:

[ Barack Obama presided over and increase of] 17.267 million jobs by the end of December 2016, a 12.8 percent increase. There were 152.111 million people employed at the end of his term. That's compared to 134.844 million working at the end of the Bush Administration.

That's an average of 180,000 per month -- include the huge drops in 2009 that he inherited.

The fiscal plans under Obama called for keeping deficits below that of GDP growth, which makes the overall debt decline in p% of GDP terms over time. That's all out-the-window now. Deficits and debt are going to get out of hand.

Bill Clinton, with higher taxes, averaged a month gain of 250,000. He also had four years of fiscal surpluses.

Let's look at Obama's U6 record (below). Only a shameless hack would call that bad performance.

Floridafan · Apr 17, 2018

Conservative said:
Whining? you mean pointing out the failure of Obama and his results? that is whining? Post where I whined at all about interest rates and inflation. You really don't pay much attention to what is posted do you>

let's talk about jobs? 155 million employed today vs. 152 when Obama left office that is 3 million, 700,000 fewer people working part time for economic reasons that are now working full time. That is reality and BLS.gov. You cannot seem to grasp the concept that Trump is competing against Obama results same month last year not against himself. Interesting how people like you cannot admit when wrong and celebrate actual success?

Obama average 13.3% U-6 and left us at 9.2% never achieving pre recession levels so for 9.3 trillion added to the debt we got failed economic policies and results

Like i have said and will continue to say, all you do is lie. Nothing can be taken at face value. You are a total waste of my time and energy. This economy, is heading towards disaster with rising interest rates, and rising deficits.

SheWolf · Apr 17, 2018

holbritter said:
Will it be worse than the last recession?

According to the article it's a form of stimulus to run a deficit during a recession, especially if the spending is used to help struggling families. In this case, we are running such a massive deficit in comparison to GDP and there is high employment, that we probably can't afford to spend money give stimulus tax cuts to struggling people in case of recession which could mean a really horrible recession.

Trump cut taxes really low and didn't cut spending. I am not sure why anybody could not see a problem.

SheWolf · Apr 17, 2018

Sampson Simpson said:
It is absolutely astounding how dishonest many republican voters are. Republicans have been doing this dirty nonsense for decades, and yet they keep buying it. There is no denying the sketchiness of republicans, particularly under Trump presidency. Yet, we see people defending them over and over. They aren't even hiding it, all leaving and eventually going to get cushy jobs to cash in on their theft of the treasury. And they have no shame in even trying to hide it

And people keep sticking their heads up their asses and ignoring it

Trump keeps bragging that the economy is doing great, but it wasn't exactly bad when he took office. He cut taxes and didn't balance the budget. With the economy heating up, it's likely going to lead to high interest rates and inflation, and if something doesn't change we will be in a financial crisis because of the debt. There is no way the government can meet it's obligations even to it's own citizens if this keeps up.

The fiscal picture is worse than it looks—and it looks bad

Pragmatic Idealist