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Deficit at Highest Level in 6 Years

Kushinator said:
He's using the current population survey because it shows less 2016 growth than the establishment survey. He's desperate for a win.
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And the population survey is what is used to post the official employment and unemployment data There is quite a difference between the two, figure it out and apologize again for being wrong.
 
Kushinator said:
We just don't get context like Republican controlled Congress, election results, the electorate, street smarts, civics class, etc....
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Yes and of course the deficit trends aren't an issue for you with Republicans controlling the Congress are they? When did the Republican controlled Congress have trillion dollar deficits?
 
Media_Truth said:
They're at it again. The supposedly fiscally responsible Party is balooning the deficit again. The same old sorry story. Trumps doing it. GW did it. Reagan did it. Cut taxes for billionaires and CEOs, and put the burden on the every day taxpayer.

US monthly budget deficit largest in 6 years - Mar. 12, 2018

New Treasury Department numbers show that the US government racked up a $215 billion deficit in February -- the largest monthly deficit in six years.
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Didn't seem to say one word about it under Obama, did you?
 
Conservative said:
Figure out how CBO works and get back to me, they take information given them by the Congress and then make predictions, none of which have been accurate yet when they are negative or promote your point of view they are touted showing just how partisan and how full of hate you are for free enterprise and capitalism.
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There is always the possibility an unforeseen event can alter our trajectory. The CBO is actually very accurate 6 months out. I will take the over on the Federal deficit coming in @ $800 billion.
 
Conservative said:
It sure does and is mostly wrong. for some reason Obama's term and record begins in 2011 even though the Democrats took Congress in 2007 and Obama took office in 2009. that lagging indicator was the result of poor economic policies and generated poor economic results. Obama stimulus passed in January 2009 right after he took office and was signed in February 2009. Apparently shovels for shovel ready jobs are still in route.
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Focus! The topic: the current deficit is projected to be the highest in 6 years. If you want to obsess over Obama, start a thread.
 
Conservative said:
And the population survey is what is used to post the official employment and unemployment data
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Exactly. The official jobs number is the establishment survey.

There is quite a difference between the two, figure it out and apologize again for being wrong.
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I've already informed you of the differences a while ago. You want to use the CPS for partisan reasons, and will abandon it in the future if it suits your agenda.
 
Kushinator said:
Focus! The topic: the current deficit is projected to be the highest in 6 years. If you want to obsess over Obama, start a thread.
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Projected is the key word here and what you want to ignore. if it goes back to Obama's record so be it he will have three more years of trillion dollar deficits to equal Obama's but the reality is you still haven't responded to the economic results generated and the fact that the fiscal year doesn't end until Sept. 30 but trumpeting a projection is what the left does when they believe is supports their point of view which is nothing but negatives. Your negative rhetoric is noted as is your lack of understanding of human behavior. Projections mean absolutely nothing
 
Kushinator said:
Exactly. The official jobs number is the establishment survey.



I've already informed you of the differences a while ago. You want to use the CPS for partisan reasons, and will abandon it in the future if it suits your agenda.
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Here is the difference and why the household survey from Census is used and more accurate

The BLS notes the following differences between the surveys:
•The household survey includes agricultural workers, self-employed workers whose businesses are unincorporated, unpaid family workers, and private household workers among the employed. These groups are excluded from the establishment survey.
•The household survey includes people on unpaid leave among the employed. The establishment survey does not.
•The household survey is limited to workers 16 years of age and older. The establishment survey is not limited by age.
•The household survey has no duplication of individuals, because individuals are counted only once, even if they hold more than one job. In the establishment survey, employees working at more than one job and thus appearing on more than one payroll are counted separately for each appearance.
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Conservative said:
Here is the difference and why the household survey from Census is used and more accurate
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Weak response.

Here is a much better breakdown:

63e3ccbf88.png


On sampling error (you better learn what this means):

Employment estimates from both surveys are subject to sampling error. Household survey employment is subject to much greater sampling error than payroll survey employment, due to its smaller sample size. (The surveys' sample sizes and the sizes of the over-the-month changes in employment needed to be statistically significant are shown above.)

When looking at short-term trends in either survey, especially over-the-month changes, it is critical to factor in sampling error. This is particularly true of changes in household survey employment, given its larger range of error. Over-the-year employment changes should be evaluated closely, too, as they are sensitive to the data endpoints used. If the time period includes a data outlier, the measured change in employment for that period will be affected as well.

When comparing the two employment series over extended periods of time, however, other factors also need to be considered; some of these are discussed below.
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https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/ces_cps_trends.htm#concepts


From the Federal Reserve Bank of SF:

The reconciliation above shows that both employment measures suggested continued weakness in the labor market last year. However, their implications may differ in the long run, and which measure is more appropriate in assessing the labor market remains a judgment call. On the one hand, the household survey has drawbacks that may induce larger biases than the payroll survey. For instance, in the household survey there are a large number of “proxy responses” by household members who may have incomplete information on the employment status of other family members. Moreover, the sample size of household survey is substantially smaller than that of the payroll survey; the larger sample size in the payroll survey will undoubtedly help generate more precise estimates of employment.

On the other hand, the payroll survey has the drawback of missing job growth that is occurring at very young companies, including self-employment, even after the redesign. However, some researchers have pointed out that this drawback may not be so serious. Rissman (2003) treats self-employment as a low-paying alternative to wage work. In particular, workers are assumed to be either employed in wage work, unemployed, or self-employed and looking for wage work.
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Once again, you fully display just how little you know of the topic.
 
Kushinator said:
Weak response.

Here is a much better breakdown:

63e3ccbf88.png


On sampling error (you better learn what this means):



https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/ces_cps_trends.htm#concepts


From the Federal Reserve Bank of SF:



Once again, you fully display just how little you know of the topic.
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Look, this is a waste of time, Reagan, Clinton, Bush, and Obama are out of office, you think Obama did a great job which apparently the electorate did as well giving the Congress to the GOP and giving us Trump which goes to show that book smart street stupid people are out of touch with reality
 
Media_Truth said:
They're at it again. The supposedly fiscally responsible Party is balooning the deficit again. The same old sorry story. Trumps doing it. GW did it. Reagan did it. Cut taxes for billionaires and CEOs, and put the burden on the every day taxpayer.

US monthly budget deficit largest in 6 years - Mar. 12, 2018

New Treasury Department numbers show that the US government racked up a $215 billion deficit in February -- the largest monthly deficit in six years.
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Don't ever let the Republicans tell you that they are working to control the deficit and shrink government; 'cause they're lying.
 
Conservative said:
Look, this is a waste of time, Reagan, Clinton, Bush, and Obama are out of office, you think Obama did a great job which apparently the electorate did as well giving the Congress to the GOP and giving us Trump which goes to show that book smart street stupid people are out of touch with reality
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Now you want to run away from your statements. The CPS survey is less accurate by definition, and you lack the courage to admit you are wrong.
 
Kushinator said:
Now you want to run away from your statements. The CPS survey is less accurate by definition, and you lack the courage to admit you are wrong.
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Not running at all, sticking to the thread topic as I have gotten off track many times thanks to people like you. The highest deficit in 6 years takes us back to Obama and Democratic Control of Congress which of course you conveniently ignore. You continue to think Obama did a great job, stick to that argument and keep losing elections.

Now the battle cry is dump Trump and take back the Congress to do WHAT? What part of the Trump record don't you like, the millions more employed, the almost million less working part time and now working full time, the 8% U-6 rate, or people keeping more of what they earn? What exactly are the Democrats going to do and change?
 
Conservative said:
Not running at all, sticking to the thread topic as I have gotten off track many times thanks to people like you.
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Suddenly you want to abandon your fake reasoning for using CPS data to push your false narrative. Sorry, it won't work.

The highest deficit in 6 years takes us back to Obama and Democratic Control of Congress which of course you conveniently ignore. You continue to think Obama did a great job, stick to that argument and keep losing elections.
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Which brings us back to recovering from a once-in-a-generation financial and economic crisis. We are at record low unemployment now... what is your reasoning for exploding the deficit?

Now the battle cry is dump Trump and take back the Congress to do WHAT?
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I don't care about your fascination with grasping at election results.

What part of the Trump record don't you like, the millions more employed, the almost million less working part time and now working full time, the 8% U-6 rate, or people keeping more of what they earn? What exactly are the Democrats going to do and change?
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I don't dislike any of it. I do however enjoy pointing out the hypocrisy on the right for cheer leading a continuation of a trend established 8 years ago. You lose.
 
Kushinator said:
Suddenly you want to abandon your fake reasoning for using CPS data to push your false narrative. Sorry, it won't work.



Which brings us back to recovering from a once-in-a-generation financial and economic crisis. We are at record low unemployment now... what is your reasoning for exploding the deficit?



I don't care about your fascination with grasping at election results.



I don't dislike any of it. I do however enjoy pointing out the hypocrisy on the right for cheer leading a continuation of a trend established 8 years ago. You lose.
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Sorry but the worst recession in history according to you had the worst recovery in history but liberals like you have very low expectations when another of your own is in the WH. This recession was a worldwide financial recession that affected you and your family how? It didn't affect me or mine at all nor more than half of all Americans but keep beating that drum and totally focusing on trends vs. actual numbers. Taking employment up 6 million in 8 years at a cost of 9.3 trillion and never having annual GDP Growth over 3% is hardly a trend to trumpet
 
Conservative said:
Sorry but the worst recession in history according to you had the worst recovery in history but liberals like you have very low expectations when another of your own is in the WH.
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The worst recession in history did have the worst recovery in history. It started in 1929 and didn't truly recover until World War II.

This recession was a worldwide financial recession that affected you and your family how?
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It impacted many families, businesses, nations, etc.... Just because you fail to recognize reality doesn't... in any way... diminish the severity of the Great Recession.

It didn't affect me or mine at all
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Nobody cares.

nor more than half of all Americans
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Feigned ignorance on the basis of partisanship isn't a compelling argument. It pretty much impacted the entire world.

but keep beating that drum and totally focusing on trends vs. actual numbers.
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Trends are based on actual numbers. :lol:

Taking employment up 6 million in 8 years ......
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This is false.

fredgraph.png


Data doesn't lie....
 
danielpalos said:
Why does the right wing allege, tax cuts pay for themselves?
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That's easy. Republican donors demand that the Republican politicians that they own lower their taxes at all costs. These politicians can't just come out and admit, "folks, we are bought and sold and this is what our overlords demand." Instead, they, in concert with agenda organizations like the Heritage Foundation, lie. Paul Ryan has lied in every one of his "serious" Ryan Plans. As I wrote in another post, Back in 2011 the Congressional Budget Office, in evaluating one of Paul Ryan’s plans, came close to open sarcasm; it described the extreme spending cuts Mr. Ryan was assuming, then remarked, tersely, “No proposals were specified that would generate that path.”
 
MTAtech said:
That's easy. Republican donors demand that the Republican politicians that they own lower their taxes at all costs. These politicians can't just come out and admit, "folks, we are bought and sold and this is what our overlords demand." Instead, they, in concert with agenda organizations like the Heritage Foundation, lie. Paul Ryan has lied in every one of his "serious" Ryan Plans. As I wrote in another post, Back in 2011 the Congressional Budget Office, in evaluating one of Paul Ryan’s plans, came close to open sarcasm; it described the extreme spending cuts Mr. Ryan was assuming, then remarked, tersely, “No proposals were specified that would generate that path.”
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No doubt. It's amazing to me, warnings have been abundant, but the billionaire-controlled Republicans pay them no mind.
 
Media_Truth said:
No doubt. It's amazing to me, warnings have been abundant, but the billionaire-controlled Republicans pay them no mind.
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How about responding to the facts instead of liberal Paul Krugman's rants? The Trump tax cut was scored by the CBO in NOVEMBER 2017 and show us that scoring it included the 3 million more taxpayers that were created January, February, and March 2018 or the almost 1 million fewer part time employees for economic reasons created by Obama who are now paying full time wages taxes?? Then there is the matter of the GDP growth that Kiplinger says will be 3.8% this year.

All this hatred for people keeping more of what they earn and still no answer as to how that hurts you, your family, or the country?
 
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