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Our Looming Budget Issues

faithful_servant said:
Spending IS the problem. It's the whole problem - 100% of it. Cut out all discretionary spending while there is a budget deficit and you'd be amazed at how easy it would be to reduce the deficit. It's like going into $500 debt every month, but still spending $400 a month on Starbucks.
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Cut out all discretionary spending? So basically no government at all and no military at all.
 
iliveonramen said:
Cut out all discretionary spending? So basically no government at all and no military at all.
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I guess that I should define "discretionary spending" - if it's not in the Constitution, then it's discretionary. If it's not essential to our security and national safety, then it's discretionary. Take a look at Home | Citizens Against Government Waste and see just what kind of waste we are fighting against. Get rid of the stupid crap and the budget becomes much easier to balance. Take all the crapola spending and eliminate it and put that savings towards paying down our national debt, reducing the cost of servicing that debt, giving us even more money to put towards reducing that debt. If we coudl get rid of all of our national debt, than I'd say go right ahead and cut that Fed. check to the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame, but intl then, is it's not CRITICAL, then it's discretionary and needs to be cut.
 
faithful_servant said:
I guess that I should define "discretionary spending" - if it's not in the Constitution, then it's discretionary. If it's not essential to our security and national safety, then it's discretionary. Take a look at Home | Citizens Against Government Waste and see just what kind of waste we are fighting against. Get rid of the stupid crap and the budget becomes much easier to balance. Take all the crapola spending and eliminate it and put that savings towards paying down our national debt, reducing the cost of servicing that debt, giving us even more money to put towards reducing that debt. If we coudl get rid of all of our national debt, than I'd say go right ahead and cut that Fed. check to the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame, but intl then, is it's not CRITICAL, then it's discretionary and needs to be cut.
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Outside of the military discretionary spending you are talking about 600 billion dollars. That's to fund the justice department, NASA, State Department etc.

Do you include social security and Medicare in "discretionary spending" because that's the bulk of where non-military spending goes. If that's the case, good luck cutting that. People want those services.
 
Born Free said:
Obama borrowed 10 trillion, more than all the president before him combined and now you tell me his stimulus was too small and he didn't get a highway bill. I take from that he should have borrowed 15 trillion.
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If he had borrowed one trillion or even tens of billions right away, you might now see his tab in the black.
 
faithful_servant said:
I guess that I should define "discretionary spending" - if it's not in the Constitution, then it's discretionary. If it's not essential to our security and national safety, then it's discretionary. Take a look at Home | Citizens Against Government Waste and see just what kind of waste we are fighting against. Get rid of the stupid crap and the budget becomes much easier to balance. Take all the crapola spending and eliminate it and put that savings towards paying down our national debt, reducing the cost of servicing that debt, giving us even more money to put towards reducing that debt. If we coudl get rid of all of our national debt, than I'd say go right ahead and cut that Fed. check to the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame, but intl then, is it's not CRITICAL, then it's discretionary and needs to be cut.
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Sounds like you want the US to be 3rd world country.

Yeah, no. I don't agree that this is the direction we should strive to head towards as a society.
 
iliveonramen said:
I'm curious, what exactly did Obama spend 10 trillion additional money on? Somehow the Bush tax cuts, the recession, and the wars don't get mentioned when talking about Obama's budgets. By the way, all of that was decided before he even stepped into his office.
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Well first, it wasnt just Obama, Congress had a big hand in passing appropriation and doing nothing about mandatory spending. Defense spending went down, tax revenue went up (by 1.1 trillion per year). So the answer is basically 1 trillion a year increases in mandatory spending over 8 years, partly due to the ACA which added subsidies and medicaid spending.
 
Tettsuo said:
Why doesn't the supposed conservatives ever consider cutting the obviously bloated military budget?
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Well

1. its one of the central functions of govt
2. its not our biggest problem (thats social spending)
3. our military costs a lot, because we spend a lot on training and equipment and size in order to stay far ahead of the lesser superpowers

4. conservatives have considered it. in fact, they passed a bill which cut defense spending by nearly 100bn a year from 2010-2016
 
jonny5 said:
Well first, it wasnt just Obama, Congress had a big hand in passing appropriation and doing nothing about mandatory spending. Defense spending went down, tax revenue went up (by 1.1 trillion per year). So the answer is basically 1 trillion a year increases in mandatory spending over 8 years, partly due to the ACA which added subsidies and medicaid spending.
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The cost of ACA and the increases in discretionary spending aren't even CLOSE to the 10 trillion people are claiming Obama caused. ACA from 2012-2021 is estimated to cost 1.1 trillion total.

You are getting close with defense spending going down though...because for the majority of the Obama administration there were two wars being fought which added considerably towards the debt.

Defense spending went down as we didn't have to bare the cost of 100's of thousands of soldiers being stations overseas.
 
iliveonramen said:
Income Tax rates as a percent of GDP has dropped over time. Tax brackets have been decreased and reduced over time. Like I said...*magically* deficits ballooned under Reagan.
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Due to SPENDING

After the tax cut of 1981, revenue dropped by ZERO bn over 2 years. In the same time spending INCREASED by 140bn a year.

Year-Revenue-Outlays
1981 599,272 678,241
1982 617,766 745,743
1983 600,562 808,364
1984 666,438 851,805
 
iliveonramen said:
The cost of ACA and the increases in discretionary spending aren't even CLOSE to the 10 trillion people are claiming Obama caused. ACA from 2012-2021 is estimated to cost 1.1 trillion total.

You are getting close with defense spending going down though...because for the majority of the Obama administration there were two wars being fought which added considerably towards the debt.

Defense spending went down as we didn't have to bare the cost of 100's of thousands of soldiers being stations overseas.
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I didnt say ACA was close to 10 trillion. Its about 2 trillion in additional spending over 10 years. The rest was failure to control other mandatory spending. Discretionary spending barely went up due to the sequester the GOP forced on Obama. His proposed budgets with big increases, were dead on arrival.
 
jonny5 said:
Well

1. its one of the central functions of govt
2. its not our biggest problem (thats social spending)
3. our military costs a lot, because we spend a lot on training and equipment and size in order to stay far ahead of the lesser superpowers

4. conservatives have considered it. in fact, they passed a bill which cut defense spending by nearly 100bn a year from 2010-2016
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Bombing people half way across the globe so our corporations can profit and exploit doesn't have anything to do with defense. Having bases all throughout the world does nothing to provide defense. In fact, those actions have caused more harm to us than good.

Defense means defending the country, not policing the entire world
 
Exquisitor said:
If he had borrowed one trillion or even tens of billions right away, you might now see his tab in the black.
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Geeee it might, maybe, could be, I think, if, should have...................................
 
HTX said:
The United States has a major looming budget problem. When you look at the Federal Budget there are really two different sections. There is "mandatory" spending and there is "discretionary" spending.

Mandatory spending (which does not include debt service) is a few line items that consume the lion's share of the budget. These include Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Veteran's retirement and a few other smaller programs - however the bulk of this spending is on Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. Those three account for just under $30 trillion of the $34 trillion that we are going to spend on these mandatory programs between FY 2018 and FY 2017.

Discretionary spending is basically everything else. It includes the Department of Defense, Education spending, foreign aid, science, etc etc etc....

To put into perspective how these programs are consuming the Federal budget, and ultimately going to crowd out almost the entirety of discretionary spending it is important to look at the trend: (Data is from the OMB and the CBO)

1966: 67% of the federal budget was discretionary spending
1986: 44% of the federal budget was discretionary spending
2006: 38% of the federal budget was discretionary spending
2016: 31% of the federal budget was discretionary spending

In fact, according to the CBO, by 2040, mandatory spending will consume 81% of the federal budget. Bear in mind that this mandatory spending does not include debt service. It is important to note here that the assumptions that the CBO made to even arrive at this conclusion. For example, they estimate that revenue will rise to 18.4% of GDP by 2027 - which is important to note as this is a full percentage point above the 50 year historical average of 17.4%.

Going by the CBO baseline, in 2027, net interest payments on our debt will actually cost more per year (roughly $800 billion) than the Department of Defense and more than Medicaid. This is all on top of the over $5 trillion that we are going to spend in the next decade to service our debt. Bear in mind as well that the CBO has also already estimated that over the next decade, policies already in place are going to add an additional $10 trillion in debt held by the public - meaning by 2027, if nothing changes, we are looking at an over $30 trillion national debt - and meaning from a political point of view for Republicans upset that "President Obama added $9 trillion to the debt", we are on track to add at least $10 trillion over a decade before we have done anything. And of course this doesn't fully account for rising interest rates.

The data above makes one thing clear - we have a looming problem in Washington. If we take no action (spending cuts, tax hikes etc) it is basically a certainty that we will be looking at a federal government that literally has no money to spend on anything outside mandatory spending on entitlements and servicing debt.

I know that programs like social security, medicare, and medicaid are a "third rail" and unfortunately seemingly off limits for reform, but when addressing spending issues of this magnitude does it not make sense to address what consumes 2/3rds (and growing) of your current budget?
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Hopefully the monies not given to Pakistan, the UN.....and foreign land "A" ; and Research / science / Pork project "B"......Will be applied to the National Debt.

The National Debt.....is one thing that I hope Trump works on. I don't want my Grandchildren to have to pay for mistakes made, and debt incurred......twenty years before they were even born. We owe money to other countries ; and other countries ( like China ) owe us ; that ALSO NEEDS settled !




Major Lambda
 
Sampson Simpson said:
Bombing people half way across the globe so our corporations can profit and exploit doesn't have anything to do with defense. Having bases all throughout the world does nothing to provide defense. In fact, those actions have caused more harm to us than good.

Defense means defending the country, not policing the entire world
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Sure, but even with a more limited mission itll still cost a lot.
 
HTX said:
The United States has a major looming budget problem. When you look at the Federal Budget there are really two different sections. There is "mandatory" spending and there is "discretionary" spending.

Mandatory spending (which does not include debt service) is a few line items that consume the lion's share of the budget. These include Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Veteran's retirement and a few other smaller programs - however the bulk of this spending is on Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. Those three account for just under $30 trillion of the $34 trillion that we are going to spend on these mandatory programs between FY 2018 and FY 2017.

Discretionary spending is basically everything else. It includes the Department of Defense, Education spending, foreign aid, science, etc etc etc....

To put into perspective how these programs are consuming the Federal budget, and ultimately going to crowd out almost the entirety of discretionary spending it is important to look at the trend: (Data is from the OMB and the CBO)

1966: 67% of the federal budget was discretionary spending
1986: 44% of the federal budget was discretionary spending
2006: 38% of the federal budget was discretionary spending
2016: 31% of the federal budget was discretionary spending

In fact, according to the CBO, by 2040, mandatory spending will consume 81% of the federal budget. Bear in mind that this mandatory spending does not include debt service. It is important to note here that the assumptions that the CBO made to even arrive at this conclusion. For example, they estimate that revenue will rise to 18.4% of GDP by 2027 - which is important to note as this is a full percentage point above the 50 year historical average of 17.4%.

Going by the CBO baseline, in 2027, net interest payments on our debt will actually cost more per year (roughly $800 billion) than the Department of Defense and more than Medicaid. This is all on top of the over $5 trillion that we are going to spend in the next decade to service our debt. Bear in mind as well that the CBO has also already estimated that over the next decade, policies already in place are going to add an additional $10 trillion in debt held by the public - meaning by 2027, if nothing changes, we are looking at an over $30 trillion national debt - and meaning from a political point of view for Republicans upset that "President Obama added $9 trillion to the debt", we are on track to add at least $10 trillion over a decade before we have done anything. And of course this doesn't fully account for rising interest rates.

The data above makes one thing clear - we have a looming problem in Washington. If we take no action (spending cuts, tax hikes etc) it is basically a certainty that we will be looking at a federal government that literally has no money to spend on anything outside mandatory spending on entitlements and servicing debt.

I know that programs like social security, medicare, and medicaid are a "third rail" and unfortunately seemingly off limits for reform, but when addressing spending issues of this magnitude does it not make sense to address what consumes 2/3rds (and growing) of your current budget?
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What is missing from your analysis is the portion of government income that comes from "entitlement taxes."

Can you appraise us of the rise in the proportion of government income that has come from entitlement taxation (FICA & medicare taxes) over the last 75 Years?
 
I would suggest we save our comments on budget issues until we actually have a Budget.
Now if one is actually interested in dealing with spending and revenue then a few of the following might help address that:
1) Stop sending money to other countries, other than emergency disaster aide, we cannot afford it.
2) Perform an in-depth study of military spending and cut out the waste as much as possible and be rational when it comes to spending.
3) Reform Welfare and Food Stamps to ensure those that need it get it and remove those that are abusing it.
4) Stop giving those here illegally any Welfare, Food Stamps, Free Public Schooling, etc....
5) Eliminate redundant Government Agencies.
6) Eliminate as much Pork spending as possible.
7) Ban ALL lobbying, it is subverting our Representatives and the Will of the People.
8) If there is to be no Medicare/Single Payer health program then regulate the Insurance industry so that they are forced to offer affordable healthcare to all with benefits that are actually worth paying for it.
I am sure there are many other ways to deal with the budget, but as we see Congress is not all that interested in doing what is best for the Nation, and until We the People start holding our Reps accountable, regardless of Party, nothing will change.
 
SirGareth said:
What is missing from your analysis is the portion of government income that comes from "entitlement taxes."

Can you appraise us of the rise in the proportion of government income that has come from entitlement taxation (FICA & medicare taxes) over the last 75 Years?
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Ill answer.
Since the 80s its been steady at about 35% of receipts. The tax rate was increased in the 80s.
In the 40s-70s, it grew from 10%-20% of receipts as the rate was increased, and HI tax was added in the 60s


Total payroll taxes cover 1.2 trillion of the 2.8 trillion we spend on mandatory spending. The rest comes from income tax and borrowing.
Social security roughly pays for itself for now. Medicare has a deficit of about 320bn a year, which is covered by income tax. Medicaid, SCHIP, etc is all covered by income tax.

Medicare deficit it primarily cause by the Part B Supplementary Insurance benefit and Part D Prescription drug benefit, both of which only collect about 20% of their costs in premiums.
 
Casper said:
I would suggest we save our comments on budget issues until we actually have a Budget.
Now if one is actually interested in dealing with spending and revenue then a few of the following might help address that:
1) Stop sending money to other countries, other than emergency disaster aide, we cannot afford it.
2) Perform an in-depth study of military spending and cut out the waste as much as possible and be rational when it comes to spending.
3) Reform Welfare and Food Stamps to ensure those that need it get it and remove those that are abusing it.
4) Stop giving those here illegally any Welfare, Food Stamps, Free Public Schooling, etc....
5) Eliminate redundant Government Agencies.
6) Eliminate as much Pork spending as possible.
7) Ban ALL lobbying, it is subverting our Representatives and the Will of the People.
8) If there is to be no Medicare/Single Payer health program then regulate the Insurance industry so that they are forced to offer affordable healthcare to all with benefits that are actually worth paying for it.
I am sure there are many other ways to deal with the budget, but as we see Congress is not all that interested in doing what is best for the Nation, and until We the People start holding our Reps accountable, regardless of Party, nothing will change.
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Lobbying is a constitutional right. Freedom of speech, and the right to petition govt. Are you suggesting we amend the constitution?

The rest would make a small dent and the war on healthcare costs is a failure. Every time govt steps in the cost goes up. Single payer wouldnt be any different. Look at medicare.
 
Exquisitor said:
Really, I mean, how are the Democrats going to come rescue us if they're for, as I read it on the DNC website, they're for Large Government and taxes to benefit the poor?
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The Democratic Party has four core "values" -

1. STEALING
2. LYING
3. HATING
4. DISCRIMINATING



The GOP has a one line "platform" since 1998


The US exists to serve, fund, defend, and expand ISRAEL until Jesus floats down from the clouds.



Neither party cares about AMERICA.

Vote Libertarian - at least they MIGHT CARE!!!!!!!!!
 
LaDexter said:
The Democratic Party has four core "values" -

1. STEALING
2. LYING
3. HATING
4. DISCRIMINATING

The GOP has a one line "platform" since 1998

The US exists to serve, fund, defend, and expand ISRAEL until Jesus floats down from the clouds.

Neither party cares about AMERICA.

Vote Libertarian - at least they MIGHT CARE!!!!!!!!!
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How I vote matters very little, what matters more is how I get you to vote.

The Democratic Party's problem is that they want a large Government so if the people look to the Democrats with their vote all they get is bigger Government and the people don't want bigger Government because they know there's a cost and only such a size is sufficient to take care of the poor etc.

So the Democrats really are tax and spend, so we can't go running to them for a rescue good luck in your elections.
 
OK, so you and I agree the Dems totally suck and don't deserve a vote... but will get the taxpayer dole folks 100%.

What good is the post 1998 GOP?

It got us the mid 1990s but then went 180 degrees the other way....
 
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