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538: The GOP Tax Cuts Are Even More Unpopular Than Past Tax Hikes

MTAtech

MTAtech

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[h=1]The GOP Tax Cuts Are Even More Unpopular Than Past Tax Hikes[/h]
Senate Republicans’ effort to pass tax reform is at a crucial juncture. As some senators waffle on whether to support the bill, they may want to spare a glance toward public opinion: Poll after poll shows that more voters than not are opposed to their efforts. In fact, the GOP bill is one of the least popular tax plans since Ronald Reagan’s day.

About a third of voters currently support the Republican tax reform package, according to an average of five surveys released1 this month. In a Quinnipiac University survey, just 25 percent of voters approved of the plan. Surveys from ABC News/Washington Post, CNN, Morning Consult and YouGov put approval of the plan slightly higher, but all are still at 36 percent or lower. Meanwhile, an average of the five polls puts opposition at 46 percent.
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Heavens. I can't understand why most polled would dislike a bill that lowers taxes on the rich, raises middle class taxes and adds to the debt, without significant economic growth.
 
Well while the OP I believe seriously distorts what the tax bill is and will do, I remember how unpopular the Reagan tax reform was as the Democrats were characterizing that in the same way back then. It had about 15% public approval. But, once it was ushered in, we enjoyed the longest period of sustained growth in a peacetime economy that this nation had ever seen.

I am pretty sure the GOP in Congress know what they are doing and anticipate much the same kind of results. It always takes a few months for any tax reform to kick in with whatever affect it will have on the economy so we will see.
 
MTAtech said:
[h=1]The GOP Tax Cuts Are Even More Unpopular Than Past Tax Hikes[/h]


Heavens. I can't understand why most polled would dislike a bill that lowers taxes on the rich, raises middle class taxes and adds to the debt, without significant economic growth.
Click to expand...

When one is not properly informed it is hard for one to support it.
The final bill hasn't even been submitted yet they are still working on it and their are changes coming to the bill.

When the bill is lied about and the media can't be honest yea people are not going to like it.

So far it appears the top rate will fall from 39.5 to 37.
Mortgage deduction up to 750k.
People will get to write off income and property taxes but it is capped at 10k I do believe.
You can deduct medical expenses.


The ATM is in place but for 500k ind. 1m for couples.

Still waiting on the important details such as tax bracket standard deductions and the child tax credits.


Corporate rate will be 21% instead of 20%.
 
MTAtech said:
[h=1]The GOP Tax Cuts Are Even More Unpopular Than Past Tax Hikes[/h]


Heavens. I can't understand why most polled would dislike a bill that lowers taxes on the rich, raises middle class taxes and adds to the debt, without significant economic growth.
Click to expand...

It is painfully obvious that the GOP and those they look to for inspiration are woefully out of touch with the nation and most of its people. Believing in tax cuts is at the very top of the list of basic conservative beliefs and they are determined to deliver tax cuts of the rich and corporations no matter what. And the sick reality that they actually believe this will save their sorry political asses shows how the right wing lives in a alternate reality of their own creation.
 
AlbqOwl said:
Well while the OP I believe seriously distorts what the tax bill is and will do, I remember how unpopular the Reagan tax reform was as the Democrats were characterizing that in the same way back then. It had about 15% public approval. But, once it was ushered in, we enjoyed the longest period of sustained growth in a peacetime economy that this nation had ever seen.

I am pretty sure the GOP in Congress know what they are doing and anticipate much the same kind of results. It always takes a few months for any tax reform to kick in with whatever affect it will have on the economy so we will see.
Click to expand...

They kicked and howled over the Reagan tax reforms but the end result is that everyone was better off.
Median income rose 4K dollars. People from lower quintiles jumped two or three.

Amazing what happens when more people have more money in their pockets. Not to mention the government brought in more money because of it.
 
Does anyone besides me remember when Paul Ryan promised to be the adult in the room, would work to make sure that nothing bad happened to us?

At this point I cant see how he would be better than Pence as Trumps replacement.

This guy has completely failed America.

BOO
 
AlbqOwl said:
Well while the OP I believe seriously distorts what the tax bill is and will do, I remember how unpopular the Reagan tax reform was as the Democrats were characterizing that in the same way back then. It had about 15% public approval. But, once it was ushered in, we enjoyed the longest period of sustained growth in a peacetime economy that this nation had ever seen.

I am pretty sure the GOP in Congress know what they are doing and anticipate much the same kind of results. It always takes a few months for any tax reform to kick in with whatever affect it will have on the economy so we will see.
Click to expand...

The Reagan numbers yield an average annual growth of 3.5% and results in a recession. Year/GDP Growth/Notes

1981 2.6% Reagan tax cut
1982 -1.9%
1983 4.6% Tax hike
1984 7.3% Increased defense spending (Star Wars)
1985 4.2%
1986 3.5% Tax cut
1987 3.5%
1988 4.2%
1989 3.7%

1990 1.9% Recession
1991 -0.1% Recession

The current GOP proposed tax cuts require economic growth of [4-5%/10 years] to pay for itself (revenue neutral).

That's simply not going to happen. unemployment is already low, corporations are already sitting on trillions, the US has a negative population curve, Trump is disrupting established US trade pacts
 
AlbqOwl said:
I am pretty sure the GOP in Congress know what they are doing and anticipate much the same kind of results. It always takes a few months for any tax reform to kick in with whatever affect it will have on the economy so we will see.
Click to expand...

What planet are you on? Anyone can deficit spend to get a boost to the economy. BY definition that's a stimulus...
They are claiming it won't raise the deficit though, is the issue. The have been telling us they ran the numbers and they look good, despite everyone else saying the numbers are terrible. We finally pushed and were told:

Mnuchin has repeatedly pledged that more than 100 career staff members were "working around the clock on running scenarios" to show how the costs of the $1.5 trillion GOP proposal would be covered by economic growth. He even noted in September that an in-house analysis showed the bill would reduce the deficit by $1 trillion rather than increase it.
When asked for it, he didn't actually have one. He's now under investigation for appearing to have lied about this.

You know he was already under investigation for taking private jets right? Remember the one he took his wife on to watch the eclipse?

With you as their supporter, I can assure you, they know what they are doing and it's pillaging for their own gain, with you cheering them on.
 
ludin said:
When one is not properly informed it is hard for one to support it.
The final bill hasn't even been submitted yet they are still working on it and their are changes coming to the bill.

When the bill is lied about and the media can't be honest yea people are not going to like it.

So far it appears the top rate will fall from 39.5 to 37.
Mortgage deduction up to 750k.
People will get to write off income and property taxes but it is capped at 10k I do believe.
You can deduct medical expenses.


The ATM is in place but for 500k ind. 1m for couples.

Still waiting on the important details such as tax bracket standard deductions and the child tax credits.


Corporate rate will be 21% instead of 20%.
Click to expand...

Yes the GOP leadership and budget wonks really wanted that magic 20% but compromised. So I suspect the final version will be something close to what you are describing here.

I should have mentioned that about 15% of the public approved of Reagan's tax bill before it was voted on and put into effect. But that did change. He won 49 of the 50 states in the next election and almost got Mondale's Minnesota too. :) A hostile opposition and media can't fool folks into thinking things are terrible when they just aren't.
 
AlbqOwl said:
Well while the OP I believe seriously distorts what the tax bill is and will do, I remember how unpopular the Reagan tax reform was as the Democrats were characterizing that in the same way back then. It had about 15% public approval. But, once it was ushered in, we enjoyed the longest period of sustained growth in a peacetime economy that this nation had ever seen.

I am pretty sure the GOP in Congress know what they are doing and anticipate much the same kind of results. It always takes a few months for any tax reform to kick in with whatever affect it will have on the economy so we will see.
Click to expand...
Reagan didn’t try to ram tax reform through Congress without hearings or without any consultation with Democrats. It was bipartisan and revenue neutral.

The current tax cuts are neither reform nor bipartisan. I don’t recall polls from 1986, but sort of remembering they had public approval.
 
AlbqOwl said:
Yup. As a student of these kinds of tax packages over the decades, I'm pretty serious.
Click to expand...

And why didn't they put these up for debate and public discussion, etc., as MTAtech reminds you, they rammed this through.? It's such a great bill, we must hide it from the sunlight!!! HSSsssss, the light, it Buurrns!
 
ludin said:
They kicked and howled over the Reagan tax reforms but the end result is that everyone was better off.
Median income rose 4K dollars. People from lower quintiles jumped two or three.

Amazing what happens when more people have more money in their pockets. Not to mention the government brought in more money because of it.
Click to expand...
I don’t see what you see regarding median family income. The basic story of postwar America is one of big gains in the first generation, near-stagnation in the second and after, with fluctuation due to the business cycle. And Reagan did not break that pattern:
021813krugman4-blog480.png


Here is a different view. No Virginia, tax cuts don’t make miracles happen.

021813krugman5-blog480.png
 
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Mach said:
What planet are you on? Anyone can deficit spend to get a boost to the economy. BY definition that's a stimulus...
They are claiming it won't raise the deficit though, is the issue. The have been telling us they ran the numbers and they look good, despite everyone else saying the numbers are terrible. We finally pushed and were told:

Mnuchin has repeatedly pledged that more than 100 career staff members were "working around the clock on running scenarios" to show how the costs of the $1.5 trillion GOP proposal would be covered by economic growth. He even noted in September that an in-house analysis showed the bill would reduce the deficit by $1 trillion rather than increase it.
When asked for it, he didn't actually have one. He's now under investigation for appearing to have lied about this.

You know he was already under investigation for taking private jets right? Remember the one he took his wife on to watch the eclipse?

With you as their supporter, I can assure you, they know what they are doing and it's pillaging for their own gain, with you cheering them on.
Click to expand...

The growth production of any kind of change in tax policy generally levels off after awhile and it is no guarantee that there won't be an inevitable recession from time to time. The leveling off point, however, is almost always going to be significantly higher than where it started. And there was still the longest sustained period of growth in the nation's history up to that point. After 8 years of declining incomes, unhealthy increase in the idle work force, President Trump's policies have regenerated consumer and business confidence, but we still really need a jump start of the economy to get us booming again.
 
AlbqOwl said:
Well while the OP I believe seriously distorts what the tax bill is and will do, I remember how unpopular the Reagan tax reform was as the Democrats were characterizing that in the same way back then. It had about 15% public approval. But, once it was ushered in, we enjoyed the longest period of sustained growth in a peacetime economy that this nation had ever seen.

I am pretty sure the GOP in Congress know what they are doing and anticipate much the same kind of results. It always takes a few months for any tax reform to kick in with whatever affect it will have on the economy so we will see.
Click to expand...

From what I am reading it is a home run. From the wealthiest to the least among us is going to see a tax break. The wealthiest get a 2% rate cut and a family of 4 that earns around 65,000 will see a $2000 savings. $2000 is a family vacation that couldn't be afforded prior or money to invest in their future that wasn't there before or affording braces for one of their children and on and on. And the Obamacare Mandate is being eliminated in this bill and that is a huge savings for the least among us who chose to pay the penalty for not having insurance they could not afford. Small businesses get a big break as do corporations that means nothing but trillions of dollars being kept offshore returning to the states and doing business in the states creating good paying jobs.

They have the votes it is a done deal and in the coming months it is going to be hard for the naysayers to shoot it down when the people start to see their paychecks rise and when they make out their taxes for next year. It's a winner winner chicken dinner!
 
MTAtech said:
Reagan didn’t try to ram tax reform through Congress without hearings or without any consultation with Democrats. It was bipartisan and revenue neutral.

The current tax cuts are neither reform nor bipartisan. I don’t recall polls from 1986, but sort of remembering they had public approval.
Click to expand...

There has been complete consultation with the Democrats and they could offer any amendments they wanted to offer. Partisanship wasn't a blood sport in the 1980's as it is now though it was the drubbing the Democrats took in the 1980's that I think was the beginning of the extreme partisan contentiousness that we have now. And the Tax Reform Act of 1986 is the one most people are using to compare with the current one. In fact it was Reagan's 1981 and 1983 efforts that were the first phases of the overall overhaul of the tax policy during the Reagan years. It was those that earned him overwhelming support in the 1984 election. The 1986 tax bill was in his second term.

And no, Reagan had at most about 15% public approval rating for his proposed tax policy in his first term.
 
AlbqOwl said:
Well while the OP I believe seriously distorts what the tax bill is and will do, I remember how unpopular the Reagan tax reform was as the Democrats were characterizing that in the same way back then. It had about 15% public approval.
Click to expand...
The article in the OP discusses the Reagan cuts.
It puts the approval at 51% rather than 15% for the first round.
Your memory notwithstanding, the article may have a point.
 
Mach said:
And why didn't they put these up for debate and public discussion, etc., as MTAtech reminds you, they rammed this through.? It's such a great bill, we must hide it from the sunlight!!! HSSsssss, the light, it Buurrns!
Click to expand...

I've been listening to debates on it for days now. Both in the house and senate on CSpan and in the media. In the final vote no further amendments were allowed, but certainly there was no rule barring the Democrats full participation in the process. The fact that they pretty well 100% were in opposition and had no intention of trying to work together to put together a package all could live with is on them. Not the GOP. Not this time. Nobody was telling the Democrats as Obama told the GOP that they could come along but they had to sit in back.

https://www.c-span.org/video/?437165-1/us-house-debates-tax-reform-bill-final-vote-expected

https://www.npr.org/2017/11/30/567430679/watch-live-senate-debates-gop-tax-bill

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=25HN1kZtRIw
 
MTAtech said:
I don’t see what you see regarding median family income. The basic story of postwar America is one of big gains in the first generation, near-stagnation in the second and after, with fluctuation due to the business cycle. And Reagan did not break that pattern:
021813krugman4-blog480.png


Here is a different view. No Virginia, tax cuts don’t make miracles happen.

021813krugman5-blog480.png
Click to expand...

https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/income-obama-reagan-clinton/2015/03/10/id/629286/

Posting Krugman gets you no where.

I have to make a correction it was 4K dollars not 4%.
 
AlbqOwl said:
Well while the OP I believe seriously distorts what the tax bill is and will do, I remember how unpopular the Reagan tax reform was as the Democrats were characterizing that in the same way back then. It had about 15% public approval. But, once it was ushered in, we enjoyed the longest period of sustained growth in a peacetime economy that this nation had ever seen.

I am pretty sure the GOP in Congress know what they are doing and anticipate much the same kind of results. It always takes a few months for any tax reform to kick in with whatever affect it will have on the economy so we will see.
Click to expand...

lots on the left are wealth vandals. they think they should be rich because "they are smarter" than conservative wealthy folks" but when they realize they aren't going to be rich, they want the government to take more and more from those who are
 
ludin said:
I have seen both sides post newmax so there is no skewed opinion unlike krugman.
Click to expand...

Krugman's a whore who traded being serious objective academic to a propagandist for the welfare socialist state.
 
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