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Thread: Mnuchin Scams the Tax-Cuts, claims they pay for themselves

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    Re: Mnuchin Scams the Tax-Cuts, claims they pay for themselves

    Quote Originally Posted by ludin View Post
    your using the same argument to say it won't work. that is double speak. You can't say that it is valid here but not valid there.
    either both are valid arguments or they both are not.

    more than likely they took the optimistic value vs the pessimistic value. really to be better off they should have taken the 3 point estimation.
    which is (Optimistic+ 4(most likely) + pessimistic)/6

    that would give them a value then the SD for this would be (pessimistic-optimistic)/6 or in this case (optimistic - pessimisctic)/6

    so lets say that 3 is their optimistic value and 2.0 is the most likely and that 1.5 is the pessimistic.
    so the SD is about +- .25

    this is based on PMP PERT analysis

    (3+4(2)+1.5)/6= is about 2.08
    with a SD of
    Let me remind you that YOU are the one that said that GDP growth can't be predicted. I didn't sign onto that belief. I think it can be and very smart people do that for a living. However, if you believe that GDP growth can't be predicted, then you shouldn't buy into this one-page assertion.

    Paul Krugman had a point a few minutes ago:

    Jonathan Chait raises a good point, which many of us were already thinking about: for all the debate about whether the tax bill will partially pay for itself, it’s actually more likely that it will end up worsening the deficit by far more than most estimates suggest. The reason is simple: the bill is junk, hastily drafted and full of exploitable loopholes. Once the tax lawyers and accountants get to work, they will probably find ways for their clients to avoid hundreds of billions in taxes that even the JCT estimates still assume will be paid.
    "I never meant to say that the Conservatives are generally stupid. I meant to say that stupid people are generally Conservative. I believe that is so obviously and universally admitted a principle that I hardly think any gentleman will deny it." --J.S. Mill

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    Re: Mnuchin Scams the Tax-Cuts, claims they pay for themselves

    It's long past time the "create jobs by cutting taxes to the rich" was called out. Jobs are created when the work grows beyond the capacity of the existing workforce, and extra staff are needed to cope. Such tax cuts merely go to increased shareholdings, buy-backs or bonuses, not jobs. Better to cut taxes for the middle or lower classes to stoke demand, and create jobs.
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    Re: Mnuchin Scams the Tax-Cuts, claims they pay for themselves

    Quote Originally Posted by ludin View Post
    your using the same argument to say it won't work. that is double speak. You can't say that it is valid here but not valid there.
    either both are valid arguments or they both are not.

    more than likely they took the optimistic value vs the pessimistic value. really to be better off they should have taken the 3 point estimation.
    which is (Optimistic+ 4(most likely) + pessimistic)/6

    that would give them a value then the SD for this would be (pessimistic-optimistic)/6 or in this case (optimistic - pessimisctic)/6

    so lets say that 3 is their optimistic value and 2.0 is the most likely and that 1.5 is the pessimistic.
    so the SD is about +- .25

    this is based on PMP PERT analysis

    (3+4(2)+1.5)/6= is about 2.08
    with a SD of
    The JCT said the entire economic boost, from the tax-cut, would be 0.8% for the entire 10-yr period.
    "I never meant to say that the Conservatives are generally stupid. I meant to say that stupid people are generally Conservative. I believe that is so obviously and universally admitted a principle that I hardly think any gentleman will deny it." --J.S. Mill

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    Re: Mnuchin Scams the Tax-Cuts, claims they pay for themselves

    Quote Originally Posted by ludin View Post
    To my knowledge the CBO doesn't predict economic growth.
    And a 2.9% growth rate is like low level for a healthy economy.

    It should be in he 3-4% range.
    So their calculation is not far off.

    We will have to see what happens.
    Great, so why are we rigging the system to dramatically increase the consolidation of wealth, preventing us from having a "healthy economy" that can sustain 3% growth?

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    Re: Mnuchin Scams the Tax-Cuts, claims they pay for themselves

    Quote Originally Posted by ludin View Post
    It should be in he 3-4% range. So their calculation is not far off.
    Economists say 4-5% economic growth/decade for the GOP reconciled tax plan to pay for itself ('revenue neutral'). That's never happened over a decade since WWII.

    As of now, the GOP tax plans are 'revenue-negative'.


    Lies can become truth ― if we let them.

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    Re: Mnuchin Scams the Tax-Cuts, claims they pay for themselves

    Quote Originally Posted by ludin View Post
    To my knowledge the CBO doesn't predict economic growth.
    And a 2.9% growth rate is like low level for a healthy economy.

    It should be in he 3-4% range.
    So their calculation is not far off.

    We will have to see what happens.
    But that sort of side steps the issue. The laughable "analysis" by OTP just pulls out the Paul Ryan Magic Asterisk:

    OTP has modeled the revenue impact of higher growth effects, using the Administration projections of approximately a 2.9% real GDP growth rate over 10 years contained in the Administration’s Fiscal Year 2018 budget.
    So the White House releases a budget, and then assumes, pulls from thin air as far as we know, a growth rate of 2.9%, IF (and this is key) the budget is adopted in full. But the WH budget is DOA - even the Republicans say this. But even if it's not DOA, he's pulled a switcheroo, and claimed this is an analysis of the tax bill, which it's not, but of the tax bill plus the assumption that all of the WH budget is adopted as proposed, which is just not going to happen.

    Bottom line is there is no possible way to spin this as a good faith effort. In other words, Mnuchin is straight up lying to the public with this charade.

    Besides, releasing a one-page summary of the actual analysis is an obvious attempt to bury the actual report. It can't be a good time to be employed by OTP who normally produce good work. This makes a mockery of what they do because it's so obviously an attempt to use them and their reputation to perpetrate a fraud on the public.

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    Re: Mnuchin Scams the Tax-Cuts, claims they pay for themselves

    Quote Originally Posted by MTAtech View Post
    Why do we need a new tax structure that lavishes the wealthy with tax-cuts and raises taxes on the middle class? Oh, I know -- because Republican donors demanded it. It has nothing to do with economic growth. Every other analysis said that this will do little for economic growth. It's merely a Robin Hood in reverse wealth transfer.

    Moreover, the Senate version throws millions off of health insurance.

    Medical doctors will tell you that the first thing you do is No Harm. The current tax system is superior to the proposed one.

    I seem to remember that Trump promised that the carried interest deduction would be eliminated and that loopholes would be closed. The carried interest rule remains and there are more loopholes.

    I'll save lots of money flying my private jet to my golf course under this bill.
    80% of middle class. And low income people will get a tax decrease.
    Why do you keep not telling the truth?

    It doesn't throw anyone off health insurance another lie. It simply repeals the individual mandate which means people
    Aren't forced to buy a product not that they should be forced to buy a product in a free country anyway.

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    Re: Mnuchin Scams the Tax-Cuts, claims they pay for themselves

    Quote Originally Posted by MrPeanut View Post
    Who are you talking about? I'm fine with the idea of a middle class tax cut. I don't support the tax cuts on the wealthy as I think that will lead to cuts in programs that will negatively impact people from the poor to the middle class.
    Of course you don't they are the evil people that must be punished. They must have stolen it from someone and it is the governments job to take it back.

    The rich already pretty much pay all of the income taxes collected.

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    Re: Mnuchin Scams the Tax-Cuts, claims they pay for themselves

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogue Valley View Post
    Economists say 4-5% economic growth/decade for the GOP reconciled tax plan to pay for itself ('revenue neutral'). That's never happened over a decade since WWII.

    As of now, the GOP tax plans are 'revenue-negative'.
    Not only that, but a 4-5% growth rate is unhealthy. It leads to inflation and an overheating economy. Economists say a 2-3% growth rate is ideal.
    "I never meant to say that the Conservatives are generally stupid. I meant to say that stupid people are generally Conservative. I believe that is so obviously and universally admitted a principle that I hardly think any gentleman will deny it." --J.S. Mill

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    Re: Mnuchin Scams the Tax-Cuts, claims they pay for themselves

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogue Valley View Post
    Economists say 4-5% economic growth/decade for the GOP reconciled tax plan to pay for itself ('revenue neutral'). That's never happened over a decade since WWII.

    As of now, the GOP tax plans are 'revenue-negative'.
    We will see what happens to government receipts. I expect the first few years to be lower but should pick up after that.
    It takes time. For them to work through the system.

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