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Concerned about that 20 trillion in debt?

No, that's my independent analysis but I do not doubt economists show the same conclusion.

While you have posting in this thread that cutting taxes improves the economy, there is no empirical evidence supporting that view. What's worse is that the tax-cuts that the GOP want are concentrated 79.8% on the rich. The evidence is clear, Tax Cuts for the Rich Aren’t an Economic Panacea — and Could Hurt Growth.

A classic case of coming to the conclusion first and then backfilling with cherry picked. The title in the link is honest ,though. there is no such thing as any kind of economic panacea.

On the othee hand , your blanket statement " ...
While you have posting in this thread that cutting taxes improves the economy, there is no empirical evidence supporting that view."

None, huh?

I'm sure even you know there is some.
 
Wasn't it DicK Cheney who told us that deficits don't matter?
 
You're ahead of me. I don't vote at all. What I want and what voters want is miles apart. It is a waste of my time.

which view causes responding to your opinions to be a waste of my time - after this post
 
i doubt it. Republicans are only concerned about it when the other side is in charge, and even then, they aren't willing to give up tax cuts to help pay it down. Democrats don't seem concerned about it at all. it's like being 20, living in a party house, and wondering about who's paying the electric bill. everyone living there only cares about it in an abstract sense.

No one in the power structure cares about any deficit at all, that's an illusion for the masses, we have an aristocracy to subsidize and a global occupation to fund.
 
Republican politicians maybe, but not republican voters.
I'm not sure that is the case.

I do believe that some conservatives and Republicans want a balanced budget. However, I don't recall a big push back from Republican voters over the way the Bush tax cuts caused huge deficits, and I don't hear a lot of complaints about the deficits that Trump's plan (such as it is) are likely to generate.

There are also lots of conservatives and Republicans who just want tax cuts, no matter how that impacts deficits. Some still cling to the long-refuted fantasy that cutting taxes will cause so much growth that tax revenues increase (something that has never happened). Others still cling to the long-refuted fantasy that tax cuts will force reductions in spending (that also hasn't happened). And some just don't care about the consequences.

We should also note that before this tax cut, the federal budget has about a $500 billion dollar deficit -- and 75% of the budget is essentially untouchable. That's Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Defense, VA, unemployment, and interest on the debt. The federal government could literally zero out every other program and not close the deficit.

I.e. a balanced budget is not happening. Not even close.


BTW, when Obama ran against McCain I said we had a choice between going bankrupt in 5 years or 10. The problem with the Republican establishment is that they are democrats pretending to be conservative.
Just FYI, it's nearly 7 years since Obama took office. Not only did the deficit shrink under Obama (mostly because the economy recovered, and a small amount because of policies), we are not even close to going bankrupt. We could even handle massive Trump-induced deficits, though doing so would be unwise given the issues with SS on the horizon.
 
I'm not sure that is the case.

I do believe that some conservatives and Republicans want a balanced budget. However, I don't recall a big push back from Republican voters over the way the Bush tax cuts caused huge deficits, and I don't hear a lot of complaints about the deficits that Trump's plan (such as it is) are likely to generate.

There are also lots of conservatives and Republicans who just want tax cuts, no matter how that impacts deficits. Some still cling to the long-refuted fantasy that cutting taxes will cause so much growth that tax revenues increase (something that has never happened). Others still cling to the long-refuted fantasy that tax cuts will force reductions in spending (that also hasn't happened). And some just don't care about the consequences.

We should also note that before this tax cut, the federal budget has about a $500 billion dollar deficit -- and 75% of the budget is essentially untouchable. That's Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Defense, VA, unemployment, and interest on the debt. The federal government could literally zero out every other program and not close the deficit.

I.e. a balanced budget is not happening. Not even close.



Just FYI, it's nearly 7 years since Obama took office. Not only did the deficit shrink under Obama (mostly because the economy recovered, and a small amount because of policies), we are not even close to going bankrupt. We could even handle massive Trump-induced deficits, though doing so would be unwise given the issues with SS on the horizon.

You obviously aren't listening. And you are delusional. The deficit was artificially higher because, despite conservative opposition, Bush bailed out banks. That was a two or three time expenditure, support by Obama, but not supported by conservatives. Pre and post deficit isn't better and it is only close because of the Republican congress making some minute cuts.
 
Dont you get tired of posting the same cliched comments that we've heard a million times?

no, i don't get tired of calling out hawks who tell me that our nation must go to war against (insert current boogeyman) but will not support wartime tax rates or deficit hawks who won't even give up tax cuts.

Everyone knows that politicians (ALL parties) dont care about anything but scoring points against their enemies and winning elections. What does restating the obvious add to this the debate?

see above.
 
You obviously aren't listening. And you are delusional. The deficit was artificially higher because, despite conservative opposition, Bush bailed out banks.
Nope, not even close

The federal government ran a surplus during the Clinton years. Bush wrecked the surplus, and ran a deficit starting in 2002, both by spending (two wars, Medicare Part D etc) and by tax cuts (which eviscerated revenues).

fredgraph (2).jpg


We can see the revenue portion here. Receipts dropped a bit in 2002, rose because of the real estate and financial bubbles, dropped during the recession, then gradually started to climb again.

fredgraph (3).jpg

Revenues dropped more than $440 billion in 2008 and 2009. That accounted for almost half the increase in the deficit during that time.

Bailing out the banks cost the federal government almost nothing. It didn't bail out Bear Stearns or Lehman, it let them collapse. It forced JPM and BofA to bail out other failing institutions. It allowed some investment banks (like Goldman) to reorganize as bank holding companies, not bail them out.

TARP initially allocated (not spent, but just appropriated) $700bn in 2008. Dodd-Frank, passed in 2010, cut that to $475bn. Paulson forced all the banks to borrow a ton of cash via TARP, but only a short-term basis, in order to prop up confidence in the US financial sector. TARP funds were largely used to shore up the US auto industry, a move that prevented about 1 million US jobs from destruction. The end result is that TARP funds were distributed over several years, and in the end only lost $15bn (mostly to GM).

The AIG bailout in late 2008 was for $85 billion. While that's an immense amount of scratch to you and me, and some of it went to Goldman, it's bupkis in the context of a $3 trillion budget. (And a fair amount of it was repaid later.)

The stimulus act didn't pass until 2009. It didn't go to the banks. It cost $832bn and... half of that was tax cuts.


Pre and post deficit isn't better and it is only close because of the Republican congress making some minute cuts.
Sorry, that is also incorrect.

Now, I will say that few Obama policies had a direct impact on cutting the deficit. Of those, the sequestration was NOT a Republican idea. It was a bipartisan maneuver, which was designed by all parties to suck so much that it would force (the Republican...) Congress to make a deal. Instead, they kept playing games, and sequestration took effect.

Sequestration cut around $80bn per year. That is only about a 2% cut in federal spending, and it didn't start until FY2013. It also doesn't explain what we actually see, which is a reduction in the deficit a full year before the sequestration cuts, which is well-timed to the tapering off of the stimulus act and gradual increases in tax receipts.


And yes, I'm listening.... to lots of people. You're in the minority right now. I see little indication that the majority of Republican voters are hammering on Trump or Congress to cut the deficit. If that was the case, they'd be freaking out over a tax cut that increases it by $1.5 trillion.
 
Nope, not even close

The federal government ran a surplus during the Clinton years. Bush wrecked the surplus, and ran a deficit starting in 2002, both by spending (two wars, Medicare Part D etc) and by tax cuts (which eviscerated revenues).

I stopped right here. If you are going to start with a lie, you are done. There never was a surplus during the 90's. It never happened. The debt climbed every year even though the books said we had a surplus. Why did the books say we had a surplus? Simple, congress would pass a budget that amended the previous years budget with debt and then would claim a surplus for the current year. Gingrich initiated it. Clinton signed it. Everyone pretended the world was flat. But, the debt climbed every year. It wouldn't do that if there was a surplus.

history.gif

And conservatives bitched about it. It was better than before, but still not good.
 
Kansas is the Republican utopia... and they want to inflict that on the rest of America.
 
It's political suicide to actually try to take action. President Trump has the best plan I can think of to reduce this financial bleeding our nation has. Do all we can to e=mitigate illegal residency, and bring jobs back to our shores by disassembling the free trade agreements.

Look at the heat he gets for these ideas? Any thing more effective is political suicide.

kicking out Central Americans won't fix the debt problem. i agree that the free trade agreements were largely ****, though. we should have required the signatories to adopt the OSHA and environmental controls that our employers have to observe. otherwise, it's not even close to a level playing field.
 
I stopped right here. If you are going to start with a lie, you are done. There never was a surplus during the 90's. It never happened. The debt climbed every year even though the books said we had a surplus. Why did the books say we had a surplus? Simple, congress would pass a budget that amended the previous years budget with debt and then would claim a surplus for the current year. Gingrich initiated it. Clinton signed it. Everyone pretended the world was flat. But, the debt climbed every year. It wouldn't do that if there was a surplus.

View attachment 67224062

And conservatives bitched about it. It was better than before, but still not good.

Budget surplus. It appears you don't know what that is.
 
I stopped right here. If you are going to start with a lie, you are done. There never was a surplus during the 90's. It never happened.
:roll:


The debt climbed every year even though the books said we had a surplus. Why did the books say we had a surplus?
There is no question whatsoever that there was a surplus during the Clinton years. Total revenues were greater than outlays. That's a surplus. Period.

The reason that gross debt -- what is borrowed from the public, as well as intragovernmental loans of the Trust Fund from Social Security as required by law -- went up is because of Social Security. SS ran a surplus that year (as it does most years), and the additional funds were required to be loaned to the rest of the federal government.

So, imagine for a moment that the federal government has a $100bn surplus, and the Social Security Trust Fund increases by $200bn. The federal government can retire $100bn of debt permanently, and doesn't have to borrow as much from the public. However, it is required to borrow that $200bn from the Trust Fund. Thus, the official gross debt numbers increase.

I realize it's complex (and this is just a brief sketch of it), but no one should be surprised that a multi-trillion dollar government's financial structure does not work like your personal credit card debt.


Simple, congress would pass a budget that amended the previous years budget with debt and then would claim a surplus for the current year. Gingrich initiated it. Clinton signed it. Everyone pretended the world was flat. But, the debt climbed every year. It wouldn't do that if there was a surplus.
Wow. No. Not even remotely correct.

Federal debt cannot be back-dated. It is issued in the year it's issued. Pushing it back in time can't be done.

Official budget requests can't be retconned. The actual amounts raised and spent during a fiscal year routinely change, but you can't use that to push debt issuances back to the previous year. I.e. still can't be done.

Republicans had no incentive whatsoever to help Clinton. He passed a tax hike in 1993, and revenues went up. This is an anathema to Republicans, as it disproves the idea that tax cuts are always bad in every way. Not to mention that they didn't want him to be President, they obviously rooted for Bob Dole in the next election, and they impeached him a few years after that.
 
A classic case of coming to the conclusion first and then backfilling with cherry picked. The title in the link is honest ,though. there is no such thing as any kind of economic panacea.

On the othee hand , your blanket statement " ...
While you have posting in this thread that cutting taxes improves the economy, there is no empirical evidence supporting that view."

None, huh?

I'm sure even you know there is some.
I will rephrase: "there is no empirical evidence that cutting taxes when rates are not confiscatory improves the economy.

Analysis of six decades of data found that top tax rates "have had little association with saving, investment, or productivity growth." However, the study found that reductions of capital gains taxes and top marginal rate taxes have led to greater income inequality. Past studies cited in the report have suggested that a broad-based tax rate reduction can have "a small to modest, positive effect on economic growth" or "no effect on economic growth."

That was the conclusion from David Leonhardt's new column today for The New York Times, and it was precisely the finding of a new study from the Congressional Research Service, "Taxes and the Economy: An Economic Analysis of the Top Tax Rates Since 1945."
Source

Why this is important to this thread on the deficit is that conservatives frequently complain about deficits (at least when Democrats are in power), when asked what to do about it, they say 'tax-cuts.' That policy prescription leads to higher deficits.
 
I stopped right here. If you are going to start with a lie, you are done. There never was a surplus during the 90's. It never happened. The debt climbed every year even though the books said we had a surplus. Why did the books say we had a surplus? Simple, congress would pass a budget that amended the previous years budget with debt and then would claim a surplus for the current year. Gingrich initiated it. Clinton signed it. Everyone pretended the world was flat. But, the debt climbed every year. It wouldn't do that if there was a surplus.

67224062-concerned-20-trillion-debt-history-gif


And conservatives bitched about it. It was better than before, but still not good.
That chart is very dishonest, as it doesn't take inflation into account. In the 1940s, total GDP was about $200 billion. Today it's about $19 trillion. A good weekly earnings in 1940 was $25 a week. This can't be compared in nominal terms.

The claim that there wasn't really a surplus under Clinton has long been discredited. Full answer is here: The Budget and Deficit Under Clinton - FactCheck.org
 
well, you seem mad at liberals for what you think they say but don't seem mad at republicans for promising to balance the budget then exploding the deficit.

I think pulling my vote is one of the best ways to show my displeasure. Are you doing the same or just sticking with pulling the lever for your team all the way down the ticket?
 
So true. They just lie and appear to be, but their votes in congress say otherwise.

Both parties have failed this nation, and I think people are hard pressed to actually vote for a politician they believe in. We have effectively been reduced, as a nation, to vote for the lesser of evils.

Anyone who thinks otherwise is either a rare example who actually has a good person in their area to vote for, or are fooled by the charlatan nature of politics.

Yup...Republicans are neo-liberals. Conservatives, as in what we as a country and culture used to be, was against military intervention all over the world. It was the liberals that were the war party.
 
:roll:



There is no question whatsoever that there was a surplus during the Clinton years. Total revenues were greater than outlays. That's a surplus. Period.

The reason that gross debt -- what is borrowed from the public, as well as intragovernmental loans of the Trust Fund from Social Security as required by law -- went up is because of Social Security. SS ran a surplus that year (as it does most years), and the additional funds were required to be loaned to the rest of the federal government.

So, imagine for a moment that the federal government has a $100bn surplus, and the Social Security Trust Fund increases by $200bn. The federal government can retire $100bn of debt permanently, and doesn't have to borrow as much from the public. However, it is required to borrow that $200bn from the Trust Fund. Thus, the official gross debt numbers increase.

I realize it's complex (and this is just a brief sketch of it), but no one should be surprised that a multi-trillion dollar government's financial structure does not work like your personal credit card debt.



Wow. No. Not even remotely correct.

Federal debt cannot be back-dated. It is issued in the year it's issued. Pushing it back in time can't be done.

Official budget requests can't be retconned. The actual amounts raised and spent during a fiscal year routinely change, but you can't use that to push debt issuances back to the previous year. I.e. still can't be done.

Republicans had no incentive whatsoever to help Clinton. He passed a tax hike in 1993, and revenues went up. This is an anathema to Republicans, as it disproves the idea that tax cuts are always bad in every way. Not to mention that they didn't want him to be President, they obviously rooted for Bob Dole in the next election, and they impeached him a few years after that.

They did it in 1995 and 1997 using supplemental appropriations bills. The deficit was added late in the year. That gave the appearance of a surplus. But, the debt continued to climb because there was no tax revenue to cover it.

By the way, after the short term bump, the long term effect of the Bill Clinton and GHW Bush tax hikes was one of the longest running recessions in our history.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
They did it in 1995 and 1997 using supplemental appropriations bills. The deficit was added late in the year. That gave the appearance of a surplus. But, the debt continued to climb because there was no tax revenue to cover it.
That's... not how it works.

In order to borrow money, the Treasury has to sell securities on the open market. They can't back-date that. Even if they could, it wouldn't change anything about surpluses or deficits. You have a surplus when revenues (taxes, fees) are greater than outlays (spending). It borrows when there is a deficit (outlays are greater than fees). Surpluses and deficits aren't altered by borrowing.

Keep in mind the federal government's fiscal year starts on October 1st, and ends on September 30th. E.g. FY2017 started on October 1, 2016 and ended September 30, 2017.

I'm not sure which bills you're referring to. What I do know is that those bills can't back-date borrowing or spending. E.g. if Congress approves $25 billion for disaster relief in a supplemental appropriation that is completed for FY1995, they can't go back in time and spend the money, or go back in time to borrow it. It gets attributed to the year when the funds are spent.

Whatever you think happened? I'm pretty sure it didn't happen.


By the way, after the short term bump, the long term effect of the Bill Clinton and GHW Bush tax hikes was one of the longest running recessions in our history.
That's not even REMOTELY correct. The exact opposite is true.

The early 90s recession lasted 8 months. The 2000 recession lasted 8 months. Those are two of the shortest recessions in US history. Neither was particularly deep either (they were about average).

1991 to 2001 was the longest expansions in US history, lasting 120 months. That happened despite Clinton raising taxes in 1993.
 
Yup...Republicans are neo-liberals. Conservatives, as in what we as a country and culture used to be, was against military intervention all over the world. It was the liberals that were the war party.
Conservatives are no longer conservatives.

Decades ago, I was a conservative and believed in balanced budgets, limited foreign intervention and limiting the government's encroachment upon individual liberties and freedom. Today, I believe in balanced budgets, limited foreign intervention and limiting the government's encroachment upon individual liberties and freedom, but now I'm called a liberal.

Conservatives of yesteryear believed that torturing prisoners was only what the Communists did; the nation should lower its debt -- not only when Democrats are in control; and would think that teaming up with Russia to win a U.S. election would be paramount to treason. Today's conservatives have no compunction about using whatever help they can get, as long as they win. It's repugnant that we are even debate the merits of torture and conservatives care more about tax-cuts for the wealthy than debt.
 
no, i don't get tired of calling out hawks who tell me that our nation must go to war against (insert current boogeyman) but will not support wartime tax rates or deficit hawks who won't even give up tax cuts.



see above.

I dont see where any said such things in THIS thread.
 
Yep actually. I don't see anything being done to get the debt under control and we cannot maintain this position.
 
Conservatives are no longer conservatives.

Decades ago, I was a conservative and believed in balanced budgets, limited foreign intervention and limiting the government's encroachment upon individual liberties and freedom. Today, I believe in balanced budgets, limited foreign intervention and limiting the government's encroachment upon individual liberties and freedom, but now I'm called a liberal.

Conservatives of yesteryear believed that torturing prisoners was only what the Communists did; the nation should lower its debt -- not only when Democrats are in control; and would think that teaming up with Russia to win a U.S. election would be paramount to treason. Today's conservatives have no compunction about using whatever help they can get, as long as they win. It's repugnant that we are even debate the merits of torture and conservatives care more about tax-cuts for the wealthy than debt.


I theorize that both major political parties (the D's and the R's) have moved to the left overall. I can't remember who to attribute the analogy to, but the American political spectrum is akin to a ruler. We once started at the 6" mark on the foot long ruler. The left leaning party overtime advocates their policy du jour move the mark to the 5" point, the right leaning party advocates that we stay where we are. The compromise places the end result at 5.5". The marker has now moved to the left. Human nature favors such a slow creep of policy change because cries of "something must be done", and "making change is making progress" are considered justification for winning and keeping elected office.

So here we are today with nearly half the population not paying any net federal taxes, yet still carrying the same voting weight that a net tax payer has. People regularly vote for the person/party who makes the best promise - and then remove that person/party from office if they don't get their free stuff.

Where do we end up? To the left because they keep making larger promises of free stuff. Hillary once tried health care for all decades ago, R's blocked it. D's eventually got full control of the government and implemented government run healthcare (PPACA). R's still opposed it, but were outvoted. Now the D's want universal health care (keep on moving left people) while the R's are just trying to minimize the damage. Today's R's now look nothing like yesterday's R's because the modern plan is a lesser version of what is already implemented. Many R's today are advocating we keep if not increase government spending programs, when the R's of old opposed the implementation of those very programs. We are looking squarely at that 5.5" mark, yet still to the left from an historical perspective. All the while the D's still want 5" if not 4. R's find themselves longing for the days of old, reading their Constitutions and weeping.

At some point in time, this will crack the ruler. Revolt, revolution, economic collapse, or all three will take place when enough people are fed up with paying for those who keep voting themselves free stuff. Party affiliation won't matter when this comes to pass.
 
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