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CBO: Economic Growth is projected at 1.9%. 3-4% is unrealistic.

MTAtech

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CBO: Trump's 2018 budget would not balance as White House has claimed - CBS News

Trump's budget predicts that the U.S. economy will soon ramp up to annual growth in gross domestic product of 3 percent; CBO's long-term projections predict annual GDP growth averaging 1.9 percent.
Trump originally promised 4%. Neither will likely happen.

I also predict that if the budget was passed, there is so much less federal spending that GDP will actually be much lower than 1.9% and Americans will be worse off.
 
CBO: Trump's 2018 budget would not balance as White House has claimed - CBS News

Trump originally promised 4%. Neither will likely happen.

I also predict that if the budget was passed, there is so much less federal spending that GDP will actually be much lower than 1.9% and Americans will be worse off.

American conservatives will get to see first hand what austerity does. When results fail to match expectations, what do you want to bet they blame the Democrats despite the GOP operating the House, the Senate, and the WH?
 
American conservatives will get to see first hand what austerity does. When results fail to match expectations, what do you want to bet they blame the Democrats despite the GOP operating the House, the Senate, and the WH?


:lamo :lamo :lamo


Yeah! Because THIS is AUSTERITY.



Oh man... :) :wipes eyes: First World Problems.

"Hey we are only spending a bit more than last year, instead of a lot more than last year."

"WHAT?!?!! People will starve!!!!!!!!"


:mrgreen:
 
Goodness. How much does Trump's budget reduce spending in 2018 and 2019 compared to, say, 2006/2007? Or, say, even 2016?
:lamo :lamo


Yeah! Because THIS is AUSTERITY.



Oh man... :) :wipes eyes: First World Problems.

"Hey we are only spending a bit more than last year, instead of a lot more than last year."

"WHAT?!?!! People will starve!!!!!!!!"


:mrgreen:

Below is a graph of total federal spending adjusted for inflation and population growth, to make an even comparison for a ten year span. In spite of conservative narratives, Obama didn't go on a spending spree.

usgs_line.php


What you ignore is that...

the [budget] contains deep cuts in entitlement programs that would hit hardest many of the economically strained voters who propelled the president into office. Over the next decade, it calls for slashing more than $800 billion from Medicaid, the federal health program for the poor, while slicing $192 billion from nutritional assistance and $272 billion overall from welfare programs. And domestic programs outside of military and homeland security whose budgets are determined annually by Congress would also take a hit, their funding falling by $57 billion, or 10.6 percent.
source
So yeah, this is an austerity budget -- and it imposes heavy austerity on the useful idiots who unduly put their faith in candidate Trump.

So, go ahead and laugh while the guy who said he had your backs, slashes the programs that he said he would defend that the rural Trump voters depend upon.

In addition, the Tax Policy Center said:
Tax cuts consistent with those the Trump Administration outlined in April could reduce federal revenues by as much as $7.8 trillion over the next decade, according to new estimates by the Tax Policy Center. Including significant tax increases mentioned in that outline or suggested by President Trump during the 2016 campaign could reduce the size of the tax cut by more than half. Still, it would lose $3.5 trillion over 10 years.

Without those revenue-raisers, nearly all US households would get a tax reduction, averaging about $4,400. The tax cuts would be highly regressive, with high income households getting much more than those with low- or middle-incomes. However, if a half-dozen tax hikes are included in a revenue package, the average tax cut would shrink to about $2,300 and about one-in-five households would pay more tax than under current law.
 
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Below is a graph of total federal spending adjusted for inflation and population growth, to make an even comparison for a ten year span. In spite of conservative narratives, Obama didn't go on a spending spree.

usgs_line.php

:) I like how you try to ratchet it down by showing per capita growth instead of just real growth, but are still left showing a significant increase......

.....and somehow think that this answers the point that, in fact, the proposed budget continues to expand spending, just doing it more slowly.

What you ignore is that...
The [budget] contains deep cuts in entitlement programs ...

That would be awesome if true, as we desperately need to reduce federal spending now and in the future on those programs. But it is not.

Your claimed "CUTS TO MEDICAID" look like this.

No Reduction.jpg



Yeah. That's basically getting rid of the program, right there :roll: Total Austerity, man.
 
:) I like how you try to ratchet it down by showing per capita growth instead of just real growth, but are still left showing a significant increase......

.....and somehow think that this answers the point that, in fact, the proposed budget continues to expand spending, just doing it more slowly.

That would be awesome if true, as we desperately need to reduce federal spending now and in the future on those programs. But it is not.

Your claimed "CUTS TO MEDICAID" look like this.

View attachment 67220124



Yeah. That's basically getting rid of the program, right there :roll: Total Austerity, man.
On using per capita growth: The important thing to realize, when looking at the history of federal spending, is that they tend to grow over time even if there is no change in policy. One reason is inflation; another is a growing population. To get any meaningful (e.g. honest) understanding of spending growth, one has to adjust for these. (Yes, we spend more over time on health related items because we have more people to cover over time.) Fortunately, it’s easy to correct for the inflation and a growing population.


Medicaid is really, really, truly not getting cut: Politifacts addressed this: No, Medicaid gets less money than under current law, as the below graph states.


ZhaF0f-JiPOmvvFS4qor-gVpqFALuXcbwM8bBHIB0I9dFRoUZkxQUx5G-0CbPcuRNnC2Zw0Ty3lp9Ykr3X00Iy0RfiLVJnsLP9FuC_wORRhixVd3fm5JA27IMUTkFPf1JkZvLBFW

Moreover, "rolls back who is eligible. Before Obamacare, Medicaid covered low-income children, pregnant women, elderly and disabled individuals, and some parents, but excluded other low-income adults. Under the Affordable Care Act, 31 states and the District of Columbia exercised the option to make Medicaid available to anyone making up to 133 percent of federal poverty. For a family of three, that would be about $27,000 a year. The Senate bill eliminates that option as of January 2018.

This shuts out the Medicaid option for over 2.5 million people in states that didn’t expand eligibility.

The bill also makes federal payments to expansion states less generous. Under Obamacare, Washington covers at least 90 percent of the cost of covering people in the expansion group. That’s a better deal than the regular match, which can be anywhere from 50 to about 70 percent. The Senate bill phases out the higher rate for expansion states and by 2024, the match falls back to the regular rate.

The bill further ends Medicaid’s days as an open-ended promise to cover a certain percentage of a state’s costs. Instead, the bill shifts the program to a capped amount. The cap might apply on a per-person basis, or states might opt to take their money as a block grant. In either case, the amount would rise each year, but using a lower inflation factor than is used today."

Basically, as more and more Americans get older and need Medicaid for their nursing homes, the Republicans slow the growth in nominal figures, and fewer Americans will get Medicaid. Not accepting what's really going on is smoke screens and mirrors.
 
:) I like how you try to ratchet it down by showing per capita growth instead of just real growth, but are still left showing a significant increase......

.....and somehow think that this answers the point that, in fact, the proposed budget continues to expand spending, just doing it more slowly.

Ermmm, why wouldn't he use per capita growth? It's way more honest than absolute growth. More people are obviously gonna require more money (and are also gonna 'supply' more productivity).
 
Too funny! You guys claim there was nothing wrong with Obama's 1.9% then you jump all over Trump because of 1.9% projections.

No we are not. What we are jumping all over is Trumps lies. I thought allowing the dumping of toxic waste into our waterways was going to make growth boom!
 
Too funny! You guys claim there was nothing wrong with Obama's 1.9% then you jump all over Trump because of 1.9% projections.
Yes, because of Trumps 4% promises. I am personally ok with 1.9% growth. But when the budget proposals hinge on 4%, you can bet they're going to come up short.

Sent from my SM-G360V using Tapatalk
 
No we are not. What we are jumping all over is Trumps lies. I thought allowing the dumping of toxic waste into our waterways was going to make growth boom!

You are only a partisan hack. You can convince me otherwise by declaring you want Pence president and starting threads praising Pence. I will be breathlessly waiting.
 
Yes, because of Trumps 4% promises. I am personally ok with 1.9% growth. But when the budget proposals hinge on 4%, you can bet they're going to come up short.

Sent from my SM-G360V using Tapatalk

So you're OK with Trump's projected 1.9% then and just want to partake in biased liberal talking points solely for political purposes.
 
Too funny! You guys claim there was nothing wrong with Obama's 1.9% then you jump all over Trump because of 1.9% projections.
Please don't misinterpret. My ridicule was squarely aimed at Trump supporters, Republicans and conservatives that jump all over Obama for policies that produced 1.9% economic growth and will either cheer 1.9% growth under Trump or hold back on any criticism.

While Trump claimed that his economic policies will generate 4% growth, we, once again, see that those claims were mere BS. His policies will do no better while enriching the already rich and hurting everyone else.
 
So you're OK with Trump's projected 1.9% then and just want to partake in biased liberal talking points solely for political purposes.
The point made by Critter7r was that Team Trump exaggerated economic projections so that they can exaggerate revenues and underestimate deficits.

Trump's budget does reduce deficits below current law, but only because it savagely cuts social spending. It doesn't bring in more revenue. So, what do you think GDP will really be with that much less government spending? The CBO didn't measure that but I can tell you. It has to drop by the difference between current law and the new budget, which is a contractionary policy.
 
Please don't misinterpret. My ridicule was squarely aimed at Trump supporters, Republicans and conservatives that jump all over Obama for policies that produced 1.9% economic growth and will either cheer 1.9% growth under Trump or hold back on any criticism.

While Trump claimed that his economic policies will generate 4% growth, we, once again, see that those claims were mere BS. His policies will do no better while enriching the already rich and hurting everyone else.
Nobody has gotten the growth rate anything close to something that will save us ever since Reagan started the effort, this is with our best minds trying, after humongous money spent, with the performance coming out of the last two recessions to include the one that was at one point a few months of being a depression being especially alarming.

JUST SAYING
 
Nobody has gotten the growth rate anything close to something that will save us ever since Reagan started the effort, this is with our best minds trying, after humongous money spent, with the performance coming out of the last two recessions to include the one that was at one point a few months of being a depression being especially allarming.
I agree. However, Reagan didn't have anything to do with it. He just happened to preside over it. In the Reagan years baby boomers were still entering the workforce. Now they’re on their way out, and the rise in the working-age population has slowed to a crawl. This demographic shift alone should, other things being equal, subtract around a percentage point from U.S. growth.

Furthermore, both Reagan and Clinton inherited depressed economies, with unemployment well over 7%. This meant that there was a lot of economic slack, allowing rapid growth as the unemployed went back to work. Today, by contrast, unemployment is around 4%, which is close to full employment. This leaves much less scope for rapid growth.
 
I agree. However, Reagan didn't have anything to do with it. He just happened to preside over it. In the Reagan years baby boomers were still entering the workforce. Now they’re on their way out, and the rise in the working-age population has slowed to a crawl. This demographic shift alone should, other things being equal, subtract around a percentage point from U.S. growth.

Furthermore, both Reagan and Clinton inherited depressed economies, with unemployment well over 7%. This meant that there was a lot of economic slack, allowing rapid growth as the unemployed went back to work. Today, by contrast, unemployment is around 4%, which is close to full employment. This leaves much less scope for rapid growth.

I feel like you are missing my big point: The Rebellion has had POTUS for 6 months, dont go blaming us.

I will make another great point: Our best experts not only cant agree on what is wrong, but most seem to have no clue.
 
You are only a partisan hack. You can convince me otherwise by declaring you want Pence president and starting threads praising Pence. I will be breathlessly waiting.

Placeholder Pence will be a welcome change IF he can somehow prove he was not in on the treason. That seems unlikely since he was part of the Transition that put Flynn at the NSA. Putting that Russian Stooge in charge of our most guarded secrets can never be forgiven.
 
I feel like you are missing my big point: The Rebellion has had POTUS for 6 months, dont go blaming us.

I will make another great point: Our best experts not only cant agree on what is wrong, but most seem to have no clue.
I don't know what "rebellion" you are referring. McCain in 2008, proposed tax-cuts on the rich and slashing social spending.
Romney, in 2012, proposed tax-cuts on the rich and slashing social spending.
Trump, in his budget is proposed tax-cuts on the rich and slashing social spending. He supports the GOP bills that will toss 24 million Americans off of health insurance. The only thing "pro-the little guy" is Trump's rhetoric. His policies are exactly what Republicans do when in power.

CBO's evaluation of Trump's budget was projecting years in the future -- not just the past 6 mos.
 
Too funny! You guys claim there was nothing wrong with Obama's 1.9% then you jump all over Trump because of 1.9% projections.

....or, "you guys" claim there is everything wrong with Obama's 1.9%, but are cool with Trump's 1.9% (which he will have a very difficult time achieving).
 
Please don't misinterpret. My ridicule was squarely aimed at Trump supporters, Republicans and conservatives that jump all over Obama for policies that produced 1.9% economic growth and will either cheer 1.9% growth under Trump or hold back on any criticism.

While Trump claimed that his economic policies will generate 4% growth, we, once again, see that those claims were mere BS. His policies will do no better while enriching the already rich and hurting everyone else.

In other words, paybacks are hell.
 
The point made by Critter7r was that Team Trump exaggerated economic projections so that they can exaggerate revenues and underestimate deficits.

Trump's budget does reduce deficits below current law, but only because it savagely cuts social spending. It doesn't bring in more revenue. So, what do you think GDP will really be with that much less government spending? The CBO didn't measure that but I can tell you. It has to drop by the difference between current law and the new budget, which is a contractionary policy.

So? Obama exaggerated many things to, including several things connected with Obamacare.
 
Placeholder Pence will be a welcome change IF he can somehow prove he was not in on the treason. That seems unlikely since he was part of the Transition that put Flynn at the NSA. Putting that Russian Stooge in charge of our most guarded secrets can never be forgiven.

I will be breathlessly awaiting all of your future posts demanding that Pence be made president and that he has your full support. Until then I will dismiss everything you say as just rabid partisanship and sour grapes because your side lost.
 
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