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Thread: CBO: Economic Growth is projected at 1.9%. 3-4% is unrealistic.

  1. #31
    Moderate Right's Avatar
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    Re: CBO: Economic Growth is projected at 1.9%. 3-4% is unrealistic.

    Quote Originally Posted by Critter7r View Post
    I'm ok with the projection of 1.9% growth. It was not, however, Trump's projection. His prediction (based on what? who knows) was for 4% growth, which doesn't appear to be a possibility. I'm ok with the fact that 4% growth isn't a possibility, I'm not ok with Trump predicating his budget projections on 4% growth, when he's been shown that it isn't going to happen.
    Every politician who ever existed has given rosy figures for many different things, including Obama on Obamacare and other things as well. When Hillary was running for president I specifically remember her declaring that she would not add one penny to the national debt. A little bit rosy there to, don't you think? To take advantage of these kinds of things merely for political ammunition is nothing but partisan and both sides do it. If you are going to do this then you should at least admit that you are doing it for politically partisan purposes. And, I don't deny that Trump has done this with numerous things. It's what they all do.

  2. #32
    Visbek's Avatar
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    Re: CBO: Economic Growth is projected at 1.9%. 3-4% is unrealistic.

    Quote Originally Posted by Moderate Right View Post
    Too funny! You guys claim there was nothing wrong with Obama's 1.9% then you jump all over Trump because of 1.9% projections.

    2% is not great, no matter who is President. However, context matters.

    Obama presided over the recovery from the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression, including a global recession that reduced US exports. He also had to deal with an obstructionist Congress.

    Obama and Trump share certain structural weaknesses and strengths. Overall though, Trump is in a very different situation. He came into office when most of the recovery was over, unemployment near historic lows, credit is still absurdly cheap, and a stock market that spent years on a tear.

    Unfortunately, any President right now would face numerous structural issues, such as:
    • Reduced global demand
    • Very high income / economic inequality
    • Debt mostly maxed out (especially on the consumer side)
    • Aging population
    • Increasing automation
    • Boomers retiring

    Thus, Trump hitting a 2% growth rate does not automatically produce cries of "TRUMP'S FAULT!!!" The real issue is in his policies, which will make it difficult to hit even 2%. Such as:
    • Anti-immigrant and xenophobic sentiment and pronouncements (e.g. tourism by foreign nationals is already getting hurt; immigration, yes immigration, increases US GDP; our trading partners are less likely to buy US goods when we insult them)
    • Policies that exacerbate income inequality
    • No policies that help people dislocated by automation
    • No serious policies to help low-wage or less educated employees, let alone deal with the opium crisis (which corrodes some of the communities in which these displaced and discouraged workers live)
    • Potentially reducing safety nets and benefits, where all that spending goes into the economy, in favor of tax cuts for the wealthy and military spending (both of which have abysmally low multiplier effects) -- this includes numerous gut-punches to rural communities, mostly in cutting benefits and assistance to states (including Medicaid)
    • Setting the stage for a repeat of the 2007 financial crisis, by eliminating regulations (particularly those on financial institutions)

    And of course, another serious issue is that the Trump administration is basically lying out its ass by claiming that cutting taxes for the wealthy, and regulations on business, will boost growth to 3%. And while Trump may be a megalomaniacal moron who would fail Macroeconomics 101, Mnuchin is not... and really ought to know better.

    I.e. it's the lies that are almost as bad as the policies.

    Last edited by Visbek; 07-17-17 at 05:12 PM.

  3. #33

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    Re: CBO: Economic Growth is projected at 1.9%. 3-4% is unrealistic.

    Quote Originally Posted by MrWonka View Post
    Ultimately the economy can't realistically grow much faster if any faster than the population grows. With birth rates declining, baby boomers dying, and attempts by Republicans to keep immigrants out it would not shock me if we had a long term net zero growth coming in the future. It might not have anything at all to do with economic policy of either party, it's just a natural thing that's going to happen.
    That's true and productivity hasn't been increasing as it used to.
    "I never meant to say that the Conservatives are generally stupid. I meant to say that stupid people are generally Conservative. I believe that is so obviously and universally admitted a principle that I hardly think any gentleman will deny it." --J.S. Mill

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