Wage Growth Is on Fire

[mbig]

I wonder if Trump/GOPers will take credit for this in 2017's good Stats.
They Will, and I will refer to this post to show the economy was already picking up, and wage growth already rising due to the Longest Recovery in US economic history. Near full employment is finally raising the bottom's wages.

However, if Trump does get rid of some of these ILLEGALS who depress the bottom's wages, he too can claim credit.
I support E-verify: No National ID, NO job.

Wage Growth Is Galloping Higher at Its Fastest Pace in Nearly Eight Years
A new cycle high.
Luke Kawa - Bloomberg - November 15, 2016
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...her-at-its-fastest-pace-in-nearly-eight-years

Wage growth is on fire.

The Atlanta Fed's Wage Growth Tracker indicates that the median U.S. worker saw pay rise by 3.9% year-over-year in October, the fastest rate of growth since November 2008.

This number comes on the heels of October's non-farm payrolls report, which showed average hourly earnings increasing at the fastest annual clip of this current expansion, a sign that the economy is getting close to full employment.

The Atlanta Fed's wage metric tracks the incomes of individual workers over time, and as such is not prone to the composition effects — like the exit of higher-paid baby boomers from the labor force — that have weighed on the usual measure of average hourly earnings this cycle.

"Average hourly earnings are more susceptible to compositional and demographic changes in the labor force, while the tracker is comparing the wages of the same individuals over time, providing a unique insight into wage growth,"
[.......]​

 

[mmi]

ILLEGALS who depress the bottom's wages

You offer no evidence to support this claim.

 

[mbig]

You offer no evidence to support this claim.

You need Links for the logical/Obvious?
You ignore the rest of my post?
Just looking for some burden-shifting/logically fallacious debate tonight?
Bored?

 

[ttwtt78640]

Since we have no national ID - should we all have no jobs?

One factor not mentioned is MW increases at the state/local level.

 

[mmi]

You need Links for the logical/Obvious?

Iow, you have no evidence and expect people to simply accept yer unsupported argument.

>>You ignore the rest of my post?

Must I comment on all of it?

>>Just looking for some burden-shifting/logically fallacious debate tonight?

Nope, pointing out that yer assuming that undocumented workers depress wages … and offering nothing to back it up.

>>Bored?

Never. Life is much too interesting, and much too short, to allow for boredom.

 

[mbig]

Since we have no national ID - should we all have no jobs?

One factor not mentioned is MW increases at the state/local level.

A Valid SS number is a National ID.
An invalid one, which would be checked electronically, isn't.
MW is a factor but there's also been pressure on Companies like Walmart to Increase wages, and they have. There's also somewhat of a shortage at the very bottom, as life has become tougher for illegals, even under Obama. Employers had become used to $5 an hour for menial jobs.

That's why the economy is finally picking up steam: the bottom half is getting more disposable income.
We don't/Never needed tax cuts on the Rich/Cap-Gains/Divs.
We needed more people to have enough money for them to justify building that next factory.
They (and wealthy individuals) have Record cash hoards/Trillions sitting in .1% T-bills.

 

[PIPEWRENCH]

Recovery is what happens after a crash or as I see it a reset back to reality. This was a major reset which baffles me why such a long slow recovery. We are now only achieving heights that we were at 10 years ago. We should be way above where we were. We can give Obama credit for the long slow recovery. It clearly happened under his watch. An argument can be made that things could have recovered faster under another leader or slower if not at all. The sudden surge in the stock market is clearly a response to the election and hopefully confidence in the new leader. We can only hope Trumps policies will convince industry to invest that money here and give the economy that push it needs to keep growing.

10's of millions of workers who will work for less than minimum wage, no benefits, in an unsafe work environment, and pay no taxes will not increase wages and make America great. People entering this country to work need to be documented to make sure they are not fugitives of the law or a danger to the people of this country. They must show proof of where they will be working, pay their share of taxes, and be paid a decent wage. Instead they are entering this country illegally, with no job, or money. In order to avoid starvation they are exploited by corrupt businesses using them as slave labor to under cut legitimate businesses. I know for a fact a lot of these businesses do not pay taxes work for cash only and move from area to ares exploiting people looking for a bargain. Especially the elderly on fixed incomes.

 

[falcata]

You need Links for the logical/Obvious?
You ignore the rest of my post?
Just looking for some burden-shifting/logically fallacious debate tonight?
Bored?

You did kind of solely bold it. Not to mention its kind of the only point you explicitly make outside of discussing or citing the data which I think we can all agree is real and accurate.

but supply some macro economic data supporting this and I think they'd be satisfied. Besides wouldn't it be better to just ensure enfranchisement of workers regardless of situation? Nothing short of threatening someone else's should defer your right to subsist and survive.

 

[Kushinator]

+1 for supply and demand!

 

[Moderate Right]

I wonder if Trump/GOPers will take credit for this in 2017's good Stats.
They Will, and I will refer to this post to show the economy was already picking up, and wage growth already rising due to the Longest Recovery in US economic history. Near full employment is finally raising the bottom's wages.

However, if Trump does get rid of some of these ILLEGALS who depress the bottom's wages, he too can claim credit.
I support E-verify: No National ID, NO job.

Wage Growth Is Galloping Higher at Its Fastest Pace in Nearly Eight Years
A new cycle high.
Luke Kawa - Bloomberg - November 15, 2016
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...her-at-its-fastest-pace-in-nearly-eight-years

Wage growth is on fire.

The Atlanta Fed's Wage Growth Tracker indicates that the median U.S. worker saw pay rise by 3.9% year-over-year in October, the fastest rate of growth since November 2008.

This number comes on the heels of October's non-farm payrolls report, which showed average hourly earnings increasing at the fastest annual clip of this current expansion, a sign that the economy is getting close to full employment.

The Atlanta Fed's wage metric tracks the incomes of individual workers over time, and as such is not prone to the composition effects — like the exit of higher-paid baby boomers from the labor force — that have weighed on the usual measure of average hourly earnings this cycle.

"Average hourly earnings are more susceptible to compositional and demographic changes in the labor force, while the tracker is comparing the wages of the same individuals over time, providing a unique insight into wage growth,"
[.......]​

No need for minimum wage increases then. Thanks for posting.

 

[Critter7r]

Recovery is what happens after a crash or as I see it a reset back to reality. This was a major reset which baffles me why such a long slow recovery. We are now only achieving heights that we were at 10 years ago. We should be way above where we were. We can give Obama credit for the long slow recovery. It clearly happened under his watch. An argument can be made that things could have recovered faster under another leader or slower if not at all. The sudden surge in the stock market is clearly a response to the election and hopefully confidence in the new leader. We can only hope Trumps policies will convince industry to invest that money here and give the economy that push it needs to keep growing.

10's of millions of workers who will work for less than minimum wage, no benefits, in an unsafe work environment, and pay no taxes will not increase wages and make America great. People entering this country to work need to be documented to make sure they are not fugitives of the law or a danger to the people of this country. They must show proof of where they will be working, pay their share of taxes, and be paid a decent wage. Instead they are entering this country illegally, with no job, or money. In order to avoid starvation they are exploited by corrupt businesses using them as slave labor to under cut legitimate businesses. I know for a fact a lot of these businesses do not pay taxes work for cash only and move from area to ares exploiting people looking for a bargain. Especially the elderly on fixed incomes.

10 years ago we were crestng a bubble we should have never been in.

Sent from my SM-G360V using Tapatalk

 

[PIPEWRENCH]

10 years ago we were crestng a bubble we should have never been in.

Sent from my SM-G360V using Tapatalk

We have always had bubbles. The market has reset many times and will do it again. The problem with this last bubble is too many people were buying a home they could not afford with the idea that their home was an investment. Things would have been fine had we continued to get increases in income to eventually overtake and pay for these homes.

The other problem is our government bailed out the bankers not the people. To the tune of 3 trillion dollars. They kept their private jets, multi-million dollar bonuses, winter mansion, summer mansions, European vacation, and on and on. Not bad reward for totally screwing up.

3 trillion dollars could have been used to lower 30 million peoples mortgages by $100,000.00 or 3 million peoples mortgages by 1 million dollars. Had the government done this and worked with the banks to refinanced the homes at a lower interest rate just about everyone could have kept their homes or bought a home and the banks would still have received 3 trillion dollars. Had our government done this the housing bubble problem would have been solved. Plus the people have lots of money to spend jump starting the economy.

Unfortunately our government works for the bankers not the people. So the people lose their homes and the bankers get the money and the homes.

 

[Kushinator]

We have always had bubbles. The market has reset many times and will do it again. The problem with this last bubble is too many people were buying a home they could not afford with the idea that their home was an investment. Things would have been fine had we continued to get increases in income to eventually overtake and pay for these homes.

Things wouldn't have been fine. Not only did risk management break down, but the global financial sector was infested with toxic assets. It wasn't just the U.S., but China, Japan, Europe, etc.... Only the least developed nations, which lacked sophisticated financial systems were spared. These mortgages should never been issued.

The other problem is our government bailed out the bankers not the people. To the tune of 3 trillion dollars.

Uh huh. And the NWO took all the gold from Fort Knox.

They kept their private jets, multi-million dollar bonuses, winter mansion, summer mansions, European vacation, and on and on. Not bad reward for totally screwing up.

True enough. More conflicts of interest than we can list. But let's be a tad more honest. People who made poor decisions, for the most part, were not rewarded. Bonuses were for post-crisis success and to retain talent.

3 trillion dollars could have been used to lower 30 million peoples mortgages by $100,000.00

Again, U.S. banks were not given $3 trillion dollars.

Unfortunately our government works for the bankers not the people. So the people lose their homes and the bankers get the money and the homes.

People lost their homes because they couldn't afford them. That's what happens during a massive real estate bubble. Perhaps we should push policy that keeps us out of financial crises.

 

[OpportunityCost]

Things wouldn't have been fine. Not only did risk management break down, but the global financial sector was infested with toxic assets. It wasn't just the U.S., but China, Japan, Europe, etc.... Only the least developed nations, which lacked sophisticated financial systems were spared. These mortgages should never been issued.



Uh huh. And the NWO took all the gold from Fort Knox.



True enough. More conflicts of interest than we can list. But let's be a tad more honest. People who made poor decisions, for the most part, were not rewarded. Bonuses were for post-crisis success and to retain talent.



Again, U.S. banks were not given $3 trillion dollars.



People lost their homes because they couldn't afford them. That's what happens during a massive real estate bubble. Perhaps we should push policy that keeps us out of financial crises.

Kush, during the recovery, small business startups in cities under 100K went down. They didn't go up, they actually went DOWN. Main Street got ****ed on the recovery. I know you know the answer to this, where does most job growth come from in the US?

 

[PIPEWRENCH]

These mortgages should never been issued..

No loans should ever be made because a downturn in the economy could render any loan defunct.

Uh huh. And the NWO took all the gold from Fort Knox..

The gold in Fort Knox couldn't even pay for the Abrams tanks in our military and is an irrelevant amount of money.

True enough. More conflicts of interest than we can list. But let's be a tad more honest. People who made poor decisions, for the most part, were not rewarded. Bonuses were for post-crisis success and to retain talent.

Post-crisis success would be 10+ years of bad loans. Their talent would be creating the greatest housing bubble collapse in the history of this country along with the ability to rip off the American people for close to 3.5 trillion dollars.

Again, U.S. banks were not given $3 trillion dollars.

You are right. QE 1, 2, and 3 was more like 3.5 trillion dollars worth of money given to the banks to pay for bad loans.

People lost their homes because they couldn't afford them. That's what happens during a massive real estate bubble. Perhaps we should push policy that keeps us out of financial crises.

People would not have lost their homes if they had continued to get raises giving them the ability to afford those homes. 3.5 trillion dollars would have lowered the cost of their homes to a point where most would have been able to afford their homes even after they had taken a cut in pay during a downturn in our economy. Maybe we should push for a government that helps the people not just the billionaires.

 

[Moderate Right]

We have always had bubbles. The market has reset many times and will do it again. The problem with this last bubble is too many people were buying a home they could not afford with the idea that their home was an investment. Things would have been fine had we continued to get increases in income to eventually overtake and pay for these homes.

The other problem is our government bailed out the bankers not the people. To the tune of 3 trillion dollars. They kept their private jets, multi-million dollar bonuses, winter mansion, summer mansions, European vacation, and on and on. Not bad reward for totally screwing up.

3 trillion dollars could have been used to lower 30 million peoples mortgages by $100,000.00 or 3 million peoples mortgages by 1 million dollars. Had the government done this and worked with the banks to refinanced the homes at a lower interest rate just about everyone could have kept their homes or bought a home and the banks would still have received 3 trillion dollars. Had our government done this the housing bubble problem would have been solved. Plus the people have lots of money to spend jump starting the economy.

Unfortunately our government works for the bankers not the people. So the people lose their homes and the bankers get the money and the homes.

Yep. We have a few bubbles now like student loans and pension plans. Those were probably Bush's fault too. If not it they must have been Reagan's fault. Lately some leftys have been throwing Dick Cheney's name around so maybe they are his fault.

 

[PIPEWRENCH]

Bush is still president until Trump takes over.

Oh wait that is only when blaming someone. :thumbs:

I think it was Bush who left our fleet vulnerable during the attack at Pearl Harbor. :lamo

I know he was responsible for the British burning the White House.:lamo

The man has been president for centuries.

 

[Kushinator]

No loans should ever be made because a downturn in the economy could render any loan defunct.

Loans where the downpayment is borrowed shouldn't be issued. Loans where the LTV was 100% for FICO scores below 620 should never be issued. Loans that do not require documentation of income should not be issued. Loans where the first 3 years where the first three years have payments that are interest only teasers should never be issued.

Risk management has a function in finance.

The gold in Fort Knox couldn't even pay for the Abrams tanks in our military and is an irrelevant amount of money.

It was a comment on par with claiming we gave bankers $3 trillion

Post-crisis success would be 10+ years of bad loans. Their talent would be creating the greatest housing bubble collapse in the history of this country along with the ability to rip off the American people for close to 3.5 trillion dollars.

People in the financial sector lost jobs. Some had contractual obligations that paid bonuses upon their exit. However, the loss that employees realized... even those who had no hand in the mortgage and securitization sectors, when the values of financial stocks plummeted, was well in excess of any bonuses paid.

You are right. QE 1, 2, and 3 was more like 3.5 trillion dollars worth of money given to the banks to pay for bad loans.

You are confused. Monetary policy isn't giving banks money to pay for bad loans. TARP, a loan fully repaid, was given by the Treasury as a capital injection.

People would not have lost their homes if they had continued to get raises giving them the ability to afford those homes. 3.5 trillion dollars would have lowered the cost of their homes to a point where most would have been able to afford their homes even after they had taken a cut in pay during a downturn in our economy. Maybe we should push for a government that helps the people not just the billionaires.

You're just throwing **** at the wall hoping it will stick.

 

[Kushinator]

Kush, during the recovery, small business startups in cities under 100K went down. They didn't go up, they actually went DOWN. Main Street got ****ed on the recovery. I know you know the answer to this, where does most job growth come from in the US?

Wage growth was rather strong.

 

[ataraxia]

"I wonder if Trump/GOPers will take credit for this in 2017's good Stats.
They Will, and I will refer to this post to show the economy was already picking up, and wage growth already rising due to the Longest Recovery in US economic history. Near full employment is finally raising the bottom's wages."

Yes, they will. But once they cut taxes to the top 1%, leave the economy in another recession, and have exploding deficits, surely they will have some democrats, either in the whitehouse or in congress, who they can blame.

Look, for example, at wage stagnation, and the massively increasingly disparity in wealth between the top 1% and the working class. This is the result of Reaganomics and "trickle down" policies back in the 1980s. The trends all start in the early 1980s. Now it has reached levels not seen since the gilded age. But these folks have managed to blame this on Obama, and so they get their base to go and elect Trump to give them more of the same punishment.

The effects of what Trump does now will not all be felt right away. They may take decades to materialize. And that's nothing that they can't find some way to blame on some poor Democrat sap down the road.

 

[OpportunityCost]

Wage growth was rather strong.

Wage growth doesn't mean a damn without employment. Sir, that response was evasive.

 

[Visbek]

I wonder if Trump/GOPers will take credit for this in 2017's good Stats.

Wages could go through the floor, and the Trumpets would insist they are improving the economy. Welcome to the Post-Truth World.

However, if Trump does get rid of some of these ILLEGALS who depress the bottom's wages, he too can claim credit.
I support E-verify: No National ID, NO job.

sigh

1) We have no way of knowing how long wages will continue that trajectory. We don't even know what policies he wants, let alone what will pass into law.

2) He has no basis to claim any influence on wages before his policies actually start to kick in. (At best, summer 2017)

3) He is not going to successfully get rid of 11 million undocumented workers. And no, mandatory e-verify won't work, as it is not that difficult to pay people under the table. (If anything, it will just drive that work further underground and/or result in further gaming of the system.)

4) If by some miracle he did kick them out, it would have the same effect as basically kicking Ohio out of the Union. It would be an economic disaster, especially in the short term.

 

[Kushinator]

Wage growth doesn't mean a damn without employment. Sir, that response was evasive.

I thought it was known that employment growth was rather strong during this period as well. Should i provide the data?

 

[Moderate Right]

"I wonder if Trump/GOPers will take credit for this in 2017's good Stats.
They Will, and I will refer to this post to show the economy was already picking up, and wage growth already rising due to the Longest Recovery in US economic history. Near full employment is finally raising the bottom's wages."

Yes, they will. But once they cut taxes to the top 1%, leave the economy in another recession, and have exploding deficits, surely they will have some democrats, either in the whitehouse or in congress, who they can blame.

Look, for example, at wage stagnation, and the massively increasingly disparity in wealth between the top 1% and the working class. This is the result of Reaganomics and "trickle down" policies back in the 1980s. The trends all start in the early 1980s. Now it has reached levels not seen since the gilded age. But these folks have managed to blame this on Obama, and so they get their base to go and elect Trump to give them more of the same punishment.

The effects of what Trump does now will not all be felt right away. They may take decades to materialize. And that's nothing that they can't find some way to blame on some poor Democrat sap down the road.

Oh please. It is the left who blames everything on Bush and Reagan, and recently Cheney. Even when their own policies fail they throw their darts at the Bush and Reagan dartboards, even after eight years.

 

[Moderate Right]

Wages could go through the floor, and the Trumpets would insist they are improving the economy. Welcome to the Post-Truth World.



sigh

1) We have no way of knowing how long wages will continue that trajectory. We don't even know what policies he wants, let alone what will pass into law.

2) He has no basis to claim any influence on wages before his policies actually start to kick in. (At best, summer 2017)

3) He is not going to successfully get rid of 11 million undocumented workers. And no, mandatory e-verify won't work, as it is not that difficult to pay people under the table. (If anything, it will just drive that work further underground and/or result in further gaming of the system.)

4) If by some miracle he did kick them out, it would have the same effect as basically kicking Ohio out of the Union. It would be an economic disaster, especially in the short term.

Truth has really taken a hit over the last eight years.