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[R.I.P.] The Hidden Mess That Could Cost Democrats Up to Two Points in November

Chomsky

Chomsky

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Trailing Joe Biden in polls, President Trump is attacking mail-in voting as a potential source of illegal Democratic votes on a near-daily basis. But the biggest risk of a pandemic-induced crush of mail-in votes isn't fraud, an extraordinarily rare occurrence in American elections.

The real danger is a perfect catastrophe of administrative overload, postal delays and voter error that could lead to millions of absentee ballots not counting. And this year, unlike the past, those ballots are likely to be overwhelmingly Democratic.

Trump's denigration of mail-in voting, as well as differing attitudes about the seriousness of COVID-19, are poised to blow open an unprecedented partisan divide between votes cast by mail and those cast on Election Day. A July ABC/Washington Post poll found that a majority of Democrats (51 percent to 46 percent) plan to vote by mail this November, while nearly four in five Republicans (79 percent to 20 percent) still plan to vote in person.
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Source: (Cook Report) The Hidden Mess That Could Cost Democrats Up to Two Points in November

I found this an interesting article, that attempts to quantify what some of us may be feeling, given the unique uncertainty of a pandemic election.
 
Chomsky said:
Source: (Cook Report) The Hidden Mess That Could Cost Democrats Up to Two Points in November

I found this an interesting article, that attempts to quantify what some of us may be feeling, given the unique uncertainty of a pandemic election.
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My money is on both parties, numbers increase for mail in ballots

One segment not being addressed are University/College students
An overwhelming Dem vote that can change an election if they participate in higher numbers than 2016
 
JANFU said:
My money is on both parties, numbers increase for mail in ballots

One segment not being addressed are University/College students
An overwhelming Dem vote that can change an election if they participate in higher numbers than 2016
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Did you look at the data in the body of the article? The majority of Dems are voting by mail. Only 20% of the Republicans are.

Actually, in my OP I quoted the excerpts where that data is contained.
 
Phys251 said:
This is a feature, not a bug. Republicans are going to go all-in with their voter suppression in November.

The time to get out the word on how to vote early or absentee is now.
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Did you follow the coronivirus bill negotiations, today? The White House negotiating team is only offering about a 1/3 of what Pelosi says the post office needs to continue functioning.

Also, are you aware that Trump placed a crony donor into running the post office? He just moved to deliberately slow mail delivery, claiming to save money. Some mail times have gone to two weeks!

(Moyers on Democracy) Outrage as Trump Crony Now Heading USPS Moves to Slow Mail Delivery
 
Chomsky said:
Source: (Cook Report) The Hidden Mess That Could Cost Democrats Up to Two Points in November

I found this an interesting article, that attempts to quantify what some of us may be feeling, given the unique uncertainty of a pandemic election.
Click to expand...
Horrible, but I doubt any USPS offices in the state want to lose tens of thousands of votes, and end up deciding the election. They'll do whatever they have to do to not be apart of an historic screw up that decides a democratic election.

Furthermore, there isn't anything on the horizon that suggests this race is going to tighten up. Again and again, we've seen the distance between Biden and Trump remain about 7-11%, and Trump's disapproval staying in the mid to high 50's. Even worse, his approval on his handling of the coronavirus has been in the low 30's, which is THE issue that will decide the election. Carter and Bush had similar approvals on their handling of the Iran hostages and Gulf War respectively, and they never were able to turn around opinion to save themselves, and I doubt Trump has anything to change the way the public sees his handling of the pandemic.

So, while the race will tighten a point or two, then open up a point or two, I think public opinion is baked in. Just like there's nothing Trump can do that will change how his fans will vote, there's nothing Biden can do to lose that 55-56%ish that are committed to him.
 
Chomsky said:
Did you follow the coronivirus bill negotiations, today? The White House negotiating team is only offering about a 1/3 of what Pelosi says the post office needs to continue functioning.

Also, are you aware that Trump placed a crony donor into running the post office? He just moved to deliberately slow mail delivery, claiming to save money. Some mail times have gone to two weeks!

(Moyer's on Democracy) Outrage as Trump Crony Now Heading USPS Moves to Slow Mail Delivery
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The workaround may be absentee ballot boxes. They work like mailboxes: just drive up and deposit your ballot, but no postage required.
 
MovingPictures said:
Horrible, but I doubt any USPS offices in the state want to lose tens of thousands of votes, and end up deciding the election. They'll do whatever they have to do to not be apart of an historic screw up that decides a democratic election.

Furthermore, there isn't anything on the horizon that suggests this race is going to tighten up. Again and again, we've seen the distance between Biden and Trump remain about 7-11%, and Trump's disapproval staying in the mid to high 50's. Even worse, his approval on his handling of the coronavirus has been in the low 30's, which is THE issue that will decide the election. Carter and Bush had similar approvals on their handling of the Iran hostages and Gulf War respectively, and they never were able to turn around opinion to save themselves, and I doubt Trump has anything to change the way the public sees his handling of the pandemic.

So, while the race will tighten a point or two, then open up a point or two, I think public opinion is baked in. Just like there's nothing Trump can do that will change how his fans will vote, there's nothing Biden can do to lose that 55-56%ish that are committed to him.
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The race has tighten up a bit, from near 10 to 7.5 today, according to 538.com.

But please check-out the link in my post #5 above. This is serious **** going down! Remember, that's a Mega Trump donor now the acting head at the USPS!
 
Phys251 said:
The workaround may be absentee ballot boxes. They work like mailboxes: just drive up and deposit your ballot, but no postage required.
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You'd have to convince the Trump cronie running the post-office, and McConnel's Senate to fund it, and Trump to sign it. How likely, is that? They're stealing democracy!
 
Chomsky said:
The race has tighten up a bit, from near 10 to 7.5 today, according to 538.com.
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Sure, but in a few days it will widen up, and then close a little bit. Again, it's stick in that 8-11% range - discounting RattMuffin and company.

But please check-out the link in my post #5 above. This is serious **** going down! Remember, that's a Mega Trump donor now the acting head at the USPS!
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You're right, it's serious **** and we should draw as much attention to it as possible.

Some good news? Voting starts for all practical purposes in mid September in many battlegrounds. NC starts mailing ballots in a month, Wisconsin and Michigan in mid September. That together with early voting will bake in a lot of votes for Biden out of the gate.
 
Chomsky said:
Source: (Cook Report) The Hidden Mess That Could Cost Democrats Up to Two Points in November

I found this an interesting article, that attempts to quantify what some of us may be feeling, given the unique uncertainty of a pandemic election.
Click to expand...

You know, when it comes down to it, if it's that much of an issue in Nov, I'll be happy to go an vote in person. And we'll make sure that if the 'handwriting is on the wall,' for more BS from the WH, Seattle will turn out in person, as will the rest of the blue voters in the state.

It's the least we can do :mrgreen:


This is the barely coherent and grammatically inept speech of a man who desperately wants to be able to claim that he "cured coronavirus."

That's it, in a nutshell. When we do get a handle on this crisis, he wants to be able to pull out footage and declare "I called it! I said use this! I said try this! I told them to do this, it was my idea!" He's just doing it with lots of stupid stuff because he doesnt want to miss an opportunity. He's afraid 'the big one' will be mentioned and he wont get credit for it.

It's all about declaring himself the savior of the cv crisis and we'll hear all about it, esp in his campaign. (Which is basically each of his press briefings these days) --- Lursa
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MovingPictures said:
Sure, but in a few days it will widen up, and then close a little bit. Again, it's stick in that 8-11% range - discounting RattMuffin and company.


You're right, it's serious **** and we should draw as much attention to it as possible.

Some good news? Voting starts for all practical purposes in mid September in many battlegrounds. NC starts mailing ballots in a month, Wisconsin and Michigan in mid September. That together with early voting will bake in a lot of votes for Biden out of the gate.
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Agree with all. But to the bolded, when Trump complains the Post Office will fug-up the election, why does not one reporter ask him what he is doing to fix it? I've been watching these daily briefings, and am astounded not one journalist poses the question to Trump as he drones on & on about how bad mail-in voting is!
 
MovingPictures said:
Sure, but in a few days it will widen up, and then close a little bit. Again, it's stick in that 8-11% range - discounting RattMuffin and company.


You're right, it's serious **** and we should draw as much attention to it as possible.

Some good news? Voting starts for all practical purposes in mid September in many battlegrounds. NC starts mailing ballots in a month, Wisconsin and Michigan in mid September. That together with early voting will bake in a lot of votes for Biden out of the gate.
Click to expand...

Hmmm. But the Reps will be desperate. There's little to prevent them from doing what The Donald has been accusing Dems of trying with mail in votes. They can wait and try it. I will not be voting early.

What are your thoughts?


This is the barely coherent and grammatically inept speech of a man who desperately wants to be able to claim that he "cured coronavirus."

That's it, in a nutshell. When we do get a handle on this crisis, he wants to be able to pull out footage and declare "I called it! I said use this! I said try this! I told them to do this, it was my idea!" He's just doing it with lots of stupid stuff because he doesnt want to miss an opportunity. He's afraid 'the big one' will be mentioned and he wont get credit for it.

It's all about declaring himself the savior of the cv crisis and we'll hear all about it, esp in his campaign. (Which is basically each of his press briefings these days) --- Lursa
Click to expand...
 
Lursa said:
You know, when it comes down to it, if it's that much of an issue in Nov, I'll be happy to go an vote in person. And we'll make sure that if the 'handwriting is on the wall,' for more BS from the WH, Seattle will turn out in person, as will the rest of the blue voters in the state.

It's the least we can do :mrgreen:
Click to expand...
Did you get a chance to follow my link in my above posts, concerning what Trump is doing to the Post Office with his new unconfirmed 'acting' appointment to run the Post Office? Check it out (Moyers' article). It's despicable.
 
Phys251 said:
The workaround may be absentee ballot boxes. They work like mailboxes: just drive up and deposit your ballot, but no postage required.
Click to expand...

That's what we have here for general mail in voting. Most towns have them, easily accessible. Ours is n front of the library.


This is the barely coherent and grammatically inept speech of a man who desperately wants to be able to claim that he "cured coronavirus."

That's it, in a nutshell. When we do get a handle on this crisis, he wants to be able to pull out footage and declare "I called it! I said use this! I said try this! I told them to do this, it was my idea!" He's just doing it with lots of stupid stuff because he doesnt want to miss an opportunity. He's afraid 'the big one' will be mentioned and he wont get credit for it.

It's all about declaring himself the savior of the cv crisis and we'll hear all about it, esp in his campaign. (Which is basically each of his press briefings these days) --- Lursa
Click to expand...
 
Lursa said:
Hmmm. But the Reps will be desperate. There's little to prevent them from doing what The Donald has been accusing Dems of trying with mail in votes. They can wait and try it. I will not be voting early.

What are your thoughts?
Click to expand...
Is there any doubt they will do it? Not from me!
 
Chomsky said:
Agree with all. But to the bolded, when Trump complains the Post Office will fug-up the election, why does not one reporter ask him what he is doing to fix it? I've been watching these daily briefings, and am astounded not one journalist poses the question to Trump as he drones on & on about how bad mail-in voting is!
Click to expand...
The answer is obvious. He'll say he's fixing nothing, because he doesn't want people to vote via mail.

This could backfire on him bigly in that people in that 55-57% that want him gone will mail their ballot in as early as possible in most cases, and those greatly concerned about him monkeying with the election will vote early in person or election day.

Others have said, in some places, the election starts not in 90, but 30 days, and Trump acting like a scared loser that wants to cheat will only bake that early vote against him in greater.
 
Chomsky said:
Is there any doubt they will do it? Not from me!
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Of course not.

Trump can't win at this point without trying to cheat the ballot system, or Biden having a horrific debate.
 
Lursa said:
Hmmm. But the Reps will be desperate. There's little to prevent them from doing what The Donald has been accusing Dems of trying with mail in votes. They can wait and try it. I will not be voting early.

What are your thoughts?
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I'll vote early in my state.

**** him. I'm not scared of his antics. My Mom and Dad (lifelong Republicans) have said they're going to the polls in Texas, even if they have to wear hazmat suits.
 
MovingPictures said:
I'll vote early in my state.

**** him. I'm not scared of his antics. My Mom and Dad (lifelong Republicans) have said they're going to the polls in Texas, even if they have to wear hazmat suits.
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Fair enough.



This is the barely coherent and grammatically inept speech of a man who desperately wants to be able to claim that he "cured coronavirus."

That's it, in a nutshell. When we do get a handle on this crisis, he wants to be able to pull out footage and declare "I called it! I said use this! I said try this! I told them to do this, it was my idea!" He's just doing it with lots of stupid stuff because he doesnt want to miss an opportunity. He's afraid 'the big one' will be mentioned and he wont get credit for it.

It's all about declaring himself the savior of the cv crisis and we'll hear all about it, esp in his campaign. (Which is basically each of his press briefings these days) --- Lursa
Click to expand...
 
Chomsky said:
Did you look at the data in the body of the article? The majority of Dems are voting by mail. Only 20% of the Republicans are.

Actually, in my OP I quoted the excerpts where that data is contained.
Click to expand...

Yes I did read the link and noted the data

I always read your links, unless I am familiar with the OP

My opinion is as C19 spreads at a higher rate, and it is, more Rs will step up and use mail in ballots. How many, not sure, could be 10-20 % in some areas

The main issue is Trump stating mail in ballots lead to wide spread fraud.

Yet he is OK with FL, and we know they have screwed up on a number of occasions, hanging chads, to other problems.

The issues from mail in will cause significant delays in some States.

I mentioned students as many were Bernies base in 16.

Then we have the USPS mess

Trump is doing everything possible to undermine the mail in vote

Nov will be filled with legal challenges ref mail in ballots

Will Dems have hot lines open to assist in correctly completing the form?

If sigs do not match, ballot not counted, but there is an appeal process which from what I understand many are not aware of what action to take for an appeal

Nov ballot counts will be a right proper mess in many States
 
JANFU said:
Yes I did read the link and noted the data

I always read your links, unless I am familiar with the OP

My opinion is as C19 spreads at a higher rate, and it is, more Rs will step up and use mail in ballots. How many, not sure, could be 10-20 % in some areas

The main issue is Trump stating mail in ballots lead to wide spread fraud.

Yet he is OK with FL, and we know they have screwed up on a number of occasions, hanging chads, to other problems.

The issues from mail in will cause significant delays in some States.

I mentioned students as many were Bernies base in 16.

Then we have the USPS mess

Trump is doing everything possible to undermine the mail in vote

Nov will be filled with legal challenges ref mail in ballots

Will Dems have hot lines open to assist in correctly completing the form?

If sigs do not match, ballot not counted, but there is an appeal process which from what I understand many are not aware of what action to take for an appeal

Nov ballot counts will be a right proper mess in many States
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Wow, thanks for the vote of confidence - Janfu!

Concerning the above, I recently came across an article that Trump is strategizing using Executive Orders to modify the Postal Service to hinder mail-in voting.
 
MovingPictures said:
The answer is obvious. He'll say he's fixing nothing, because he doesn't want people to vote via mail.

This could backfire on him bigly in that people in that 55-57% that want him gone will mail their ballot in as early as possible in most cases, and those greatly concerned about him monkeying with the election will vote early in person or election day.

Others have said, in some places, the election starts not in 90, but 30 days, and Trump acting like a scared loser that wants to cheat will only bake that early vote against him in greater.
Click to expand...
If I again find the recent article claiming Trump is strategizing the use of Executive Orders on the Post Office, I'll start a thread.
 
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