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Biden will beat Trump, says historian who predicted every presidential race since 1984

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Puigb

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The historian who has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1984 – including President Donald Trump’s win in 2016 – has announced his pick for 2020: Presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden.

Allan Lichtman, an author and history professor at American University, revealed his prediction in an op-ed video for The New York Times published Wednesday.

Lichtman’s predictive method – which puts him squarely in the minority of analysts who were right in calling Trump’s win – largely ignores the detailed cross-tab polling analyses and swing state bean counting that are often prioritized in modern political punditry.

“The pollsters and the pundits cover elections as though they were horse races,” Lichtman said in the Times’ video. “But history tells us voters are not fooled by the tricks of the campaign. Voters vote pragmatically according to how well the party holding the White House has governed the country.”
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Biden will beat Trump, says historian who predicted every race since 1984

I remember this guy, and how popular he was in "conservative" circles back in 2016.

Now with this prediction, no doubt the usual suspects will call him a "deep stater" now. Regardless, he has a good track record at predicting presidential elections.
 
Well he has a 50/50 shot.

lol
 
Puigb said:
Biden will beat Trump, says historian who predicted every race since 1984

I remember this guy, and how popular he was in "conservative" circles back in 2016.

Now with this prediction, no doubt the usual suspects will call him a "deep stater" now. Regardless, he has a good track record at predicting presidential elections.
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I do put some weight on this, thing is a lot of keys are dependent on how you define them. I think trump meets the necessary keys, personally, and there are other models who say trump will win.

What I think is more likely is that both will lose.
 
I don't put a lot of stock into models like this. Each presidential election is a discrete enough event with all of its own factors that I don't think future ones can be accurately modeled by past ones. Certainly there are things that are helpful to an incumbent and a challenger, but I don't think there is any combination of 13 things that you could accurately predict all future elections with.

Additionally, I don't put much stock in people who claim they got 2000 right unless their prediction was too close to call. Anyone claiming beforehand certainty Bush would win is wrong, despite the result. Different weather patterns in Florida on election day could have altered that election.
 
For example, at -165, Joe Biden’s implied probability to win the 2020 election would be 62.26 percent and President Trump’s at +140 odds would be 41.67 percent.


Odds to Win the 2020 Presidential Election | Odds Shark



Here's what the odds makers say, if you want to gamble. 41% odds isn't horrible.
 
Puigb said:
I remember this guy, and how popular he was in "conservative" circles back in 2016.

Now with this prediction, no doubt the usual suspects will call him a "deep stater" now. Regardless, he has a good track record at predicting presidential elections.
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I have no doubt the devotees of Dear Leader will attack him.

Still, I'm rather skeptical of his measures and methodology. I think it leaves a lot out.

I also have a sneaking suspicion that early in the 2016 race, he said Clinton would win. However, I might be thinking of someone else.
 
Puigb said:
Biden will beat Trump, says historian who predicted every race since 1984

I remember this guy, and how popular he was in "conservative" circles back in 2016.

Now with this prediction, no doubt the usual suspects will call him a "deep stater" now. Regardless, he has a good track record at predicting presidential elections.
Click to expand...

Everyone needs to get out and vote for Biden. I know I will be doing it.

Obviously anything can happen and it's a long ways away. All I can say it I'd rather be Joe Biden today than Donald Trump.
 
Does he account for Russians hacking vote counts? Does he account for Trump screwing with USPS and mail in ballots?
 
tres borrachos said:
Everyone needs to get out and vote for Biden. I know I will be doing it.

Obviously anything can happen and it's a long ways away. All I can say it I'd rather be Joe Biden today than Donald Trump.
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Oh, I completely agree with you. I just find it interesting how Trumpers were propping this guy up four years ago, and now suddenly are quiet about him.
 
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