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Dems see clear path to Senate majority

calamity

calamity

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I'm not so sure of that "clear" path. But, I do like the Democrats' chances.

100 Days: Democrats see clear path to Senate majority | TheHill

Biden has built up a significant lead over President Trump in polls, and his strength coupled with Trump’s weakness is lifting Democratic candidates across the country. Democrats lead in polls in Arizona, Colorado, Maine and North Carolina, enough to win back the Senate if Biden takes over the White House even if Sen. Doug Jones (D) loses his underdog reelection bid in Alabama.

Yet there are even more opportunities for Democrats, underscoring the rising fortunes for their party. Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) is facing a difficult reelection battle against his state’s Democratic governor, and on Thursday the Cook Political Report shifted two more Senate races — one in Iowa and one in Georgia — into the "tossup" column.
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Before everyone gets all giddy tho, they need to do a reality check.

2020 Senate Election Interactive Map

The map shows them tied, at 47 each, with 6 states up for grabs.

Of the live races attributed to the D: 7 are locks, 3 likely and 2 lean
Of the live races attributed to the R: 10 are locks, 4 likely and 3 lean

Let's assume all those sit tight as counted.

Of those 6 states up for grabs: MT, CO and Iowa look like they could go to the Dems, while GA, and NC go R. That leaves the pearl-clutcher in Maine. God only knows how that state's vote will play out.
 
calamity said:
I'm not so sure of that "clear" path. But, I do like the Democrats' chances.

100 Days: Democrats see clear path to Senate majority | TheHill



Before everyone gets all giddy tho, they need to do a reality check.

2020 Senate Election Interactive Map

The map shows them tied, at 47 each, with 6 states up for grabs.

Of the live races attributed to the D: 7 are locks, 3 likely and 2 lean
Of the live races attributed to the R: 10 are locks, 4 likely and 3 lean

Let's assume all those sit tight as counted.

Of those 6 states up for grabs: MT, CO and Iowa look like they could go to the Dems, while GA, and NC go R. That leaves the pearl-clutcher in Maine. God only knows how that state's vote will play out.
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NC seems more likely to me to got Democratic than Montana or Iowa. Or Maine for that matter.
 
The Senate GOP majority has been ignoring the nation's public health and economic crises all summer. Not hard to see why a path for the Dems is opening up.
 
Colorado is the only one that seems likely dem.
 
"Clear path"collides with establishment controls and State to State demographics.

I am not saying it is impossible, the odds look good this time around in 2020 to flip the Senate, but I would not get too excited just yet. There is still plenty of time for the various factions of today's liberalism to mess this all up in a haze of extreme 'with us or we flat out hate you and want to cancel you' rhetoric.
 
Anagram said:
NC seems more likely to me to got Democratic than Montana or Iowa. Or Maine for that matter.
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Strong D candidate in MT (a sitting governor)

Joni Ernst is faltering in IA (Trump fatigue?)

Maine is definitely a wild card, especially since Collins' opponent is of Asian descent.

Sara Gideon - Wikipedia
 
Greenbeard said:
The Senate GOP majority has been ignoring the nation's public health and economic crises all summer. Not hard to see why a path for the Dems is opening up.
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With all of them being under McConnell's thumb, and him being Trump's bitch, I suspect that it can't bode well for many of them. Nor should it.
 
I'm 70% sure democrats are going to pick up 10 seats in the senate.

Not enough to give a filibuster proof majority.
 
calamity said:
Strong D candidate in MT (a sitting governor)

Joni Ernst is faltering in IA (Trump fatigue?)

Maine is definitely a wild card, especially since Collins' opponent is of Asian descent.

Sara Gideon - Wikipedia
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Montana has a little more history of electing Dems than Tennessee or Indiana, but extremely popular former governors did not have much luck in senate races in those states recently. And those were open seats, whereas Bullock is running against an incumbent. Bullock certainly could win, but North Carolina being a much purpler state and Tillis being a much worse incumbent than Daines I think outweighs that Bullock is a stronger candidate than Cunningham.

Iowa, similarly, has also been much more red than North Carolina since 2016. And although a couple polls have shown Greenfield leading, it hasn't been by as much as Cunningham.

Not saying that Dem's can't win Iowa or Montana, but I would bet that if they did, they would have also won North Carolina, and by a bigger margin.

I don't see how Gideon being of Asian descent makes any difference in that race.
 
calamity said:
With all of them being under McConnell's thumb, and him being Trump's bitch, I suspect that it can't bode well for many of them. Nor should it.
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That's how this household looks at the races. I don't care who wins the nominations for House and Senate - I'm voting for the Democrat because the GOP = Trump party in 2020. If you're voting Republican for Congress, with VERY few exceptions, you're voting for the Trump party. All our serious candidates in Tennessee are bear hugging Trump and all he stands for in their races, so none of them will get my vote, and I let the GOP callers know that when they call me. I'm in a red district and they think they want me out to vote, but they don't actually. If they are embracing Trump, it's a NO! from this house.
 
swing_voter said:
I'm 70% sure democrats are going to pick up 10 seats in the senate.

Not enough to give a filibuster proof majority.
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That seems like too many. Almost definitely losing Alabama. Can argue they have even or better shots in Montana, North Carolina, Arizona, Colorado, and Maine, but to get ten seats they would have to run the table in those states and also win 6 of Kansas, Georgia-A, Georgia-B, South Carolina, Iowa, Alaska, Texas, and Kentucky.

Don't see that happening even in a huge landslide.
 
The senate electoral map is the reason why the Dems have a good chance at a majority.
 
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